vpFREE2 Forums

XVP - Derby Picks

#1

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

I agree with your high opinion of Nehro and Midnight Interlude. They would be co-favorites in my own line at about 9-1.

I like your longshot, too, though your comment "handles any surface" is a stretch.

IMO, Dialed In is a strong bet against. I can not see any reason for Dialed In to be favored over 5-6 other horses. In addition to Nehro and Midnight Inerlude, I think ArchArchArch, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford have a better chance to win than Dialed In.

Having an overbet horse like Dialed In and, to a lesser extent, Twice The Appeal (vastly overbet because of Borel riding), makes it possible that many of the other horses will be bettable.

It's impossible for me to guage Master of Hounds' chances. But DRF's Mike Welch, who's a pretty good judge of horses' motion, said he looked awful when he finally got to the Churchill track.

My own longshot recommendation would be Comma To The Top. I seem to be alone in thinking this horse has a shot to win it. He is currently the longest odds in early betting.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.

···

----- Original Message -----
From: coachvee@aol.com
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Unbelievable!!!!!!!

···

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: sewellnj@comcast.net
Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
----- Original Message -----
From: coachvee@aol.com
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???

Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@...> wrote:

Unbelievable!!!!!!!

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: sewellnj@...
Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
----- Original Message -----
From: coachvee@...
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

Y'all shoulda told me about that animal kingdom horse. I was holding exacts tri and super boxes with the 10 13 14 and 19. At the top of the stretch I thought I at least had an exacta. I thought correctly on the 1 and 8 not being a factor but I read too much into the jockey change. Oh well. Nothing beats getting 2nd 3rd and 4th. Oh except that my girlfriend is holding a 10 dollar win ticket on the 15 only because Johnny V is her fav jockey due to some meeting they had years back.

Great race though - I like wide open fields with no "super horses".

Did anyone check out that graphical ride gimmick on dialed in they were doing on the derby website? Gave a great perspective of jocks view and how lanes open and close. It's was neat.

···

Sent from my iPhone

On May 7, 2011, at 4:46 PM, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@hotmail.com> wrote:

Unbelievable!!!!!!!

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: sewellnj@comcast.net
Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
----- Original Message -----
From: coachvee@aol.com
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks

Hi Gang:
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
Regards,
CoachVee
1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
Eclipse-winning jock.
2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
charging hard through stretch.
4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
with too much to do.
LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
surface.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#7

The biggest mistake good handicappers make is not using inductive reasoning. Just because a horse has not won on current conditions doesn't mean it won't do it today. Animal Kingdom proved that today and am surprised the price wasn't higher.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
>
>
> Hi Gang:
> Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> Regards,
> CoachVee
> 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
> Eclipse-winning jock.
> 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> charging hard through stretch.
> 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> with too much to do.
> LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> surface.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

I agree with your high opinion of Nehro and Midnight Interlude. They would be co-favorites in my own line at about 9-1.

I like your longshot, too, though your comment "handles any surface" is a stretch.

#8

Frank,

There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.

Chris

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???

Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@> wrote:
>
>
> Unbelievable!!!!!!!
>
>
>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> From: sewellnj@
> Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
> Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: coachvee@
> To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
> Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
>
>
>
> Hi Gang:
> Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> Regards,
> CoachVee
> 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
> Eclipse-winning jock.
> 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> charging hard through stretch.
> 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> with too much to do.
> LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> surface.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

#9

Frank wrote: <<Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???>>

I don't believe Coach Vee said his picks were positive expectation ones. That's not the term most race pickers use. There are some professional "syndicates" that do a lot of computer crunching for horseracing (and sports betting) and pure math is more of a factor although even then not the total picture since humans input the factors they think are important. However, a good handicapper would usually make up his own list of factors, based on his research and past experience.

<<Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.>>

Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#10

No formula. Arrgh!!! Guess it's not for me then. Don't involve myself with things that eat.

I prefer pure math.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@...> wrote:

Frank,

There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.

Chris

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???
>
> Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Unbelievable!!!!!!!
> >
> >
> >
> > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> > From: sewellnj@
> > Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
> > Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: coachvee@
> > To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
> > Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
> > Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi Gang:
> > Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> > each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> > Regards,
> > CoachVee
> > 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> > to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> > style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
> > Eclipse-winning jock.
> > 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> > when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> > preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> > 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> > including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> > charging hard through stretch.
> > 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> > in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> > with too much to do.
> > LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> > hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> > surface.
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

#11

No he did not, but I thought I'd check the numbers, and if the math checked out take a small bet just for "fun".

Just so we're clear. I was describing a day spent learning new math as fun...not the betting.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.

________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#12

In poker, reading body language can put one way in front of the math-only players. Successful horse players that I know would not even think about wagering without a thorough inspection in the paddock, the walking ring, and the pre-race warmup. Horsey tells! And thankfully, the masses will never go to the trouble of learning about this aspect of the game.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Frank wrote: <<Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind
these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive
expectancies???>>

I don't believe Coach Vee said his picks were positive expectation ones.
That's not the term most race pickers use. There are some professional
"syndicates" that do a lot of computer crunching for horseracing (and sports
betting) and pure math is more of a factor although even then not the total
picture since humans input the factors they think are important. However,
a good handicapper would usually make up his own list of factors, based on
his research and past experience.

<<Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know
horse math.>>

Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.

#13

This used to be a fun and informative board until a certain individual showed up
and wants to be the Alpha member of the pack.

···

________________________________
From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sun, May 8, 2011 12:33:33 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

No he did not, but I thought I'd check the numbers, and if the math checked out
take a small bet just for "fun".

Just so we're clear. I was describing a day spent learning new math as fun...not
the betting.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.

________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

There's not necessarily a clear dividing line between gambling
propositions that are "pure math" and those that aren't. There may be
none that are and maybe they all incorporate it to varying degrees.
Video poker expected value must incorporate the chance that a machine
is gaffed and how, which I know of no more feasible way to calculate
than I do how a particular horse performs, in, say, cold weather.
Sports and racing handicapping is basically a mystery to me, too, but
I believe it uses a lot of math in evaluating correlations.

···

On Sun, 08 May 2011 07:30:03 -0000, Frank wrote:

No formula. Arrgh!!! Guess it's not for me then. Don't involve myself with things that eat.

I prefer pure math.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@...> wrote:

Frank,

There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.

Chris

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???
>
> Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson <jamesgthompson@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Unbelievable!!!!!!!
> >
> >
> >
> > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> > From: sewellnj@
> > Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
> > Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: coachvee@
> > To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
> > Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
> > Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi Gang:
> > Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> > each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> > Regards,
> > CoachVee
> > 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> > to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> > style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
> > Eclipse-winning jock.
> > 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> > when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> > preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> > 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> > including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> > charging hard through stretch.
> > 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> > in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> > with too much to do.
> > LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> > hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> > surface.
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

#15

"Successful horse players that I know would not even think about wagering
without a thorough inspection in the paddock, the walking ring, and the
pre-race warmup."

A "thorough" inspection? I disagree. Many times a horse will come over to the paddock and move little and sometimes a jock will not warm a horse up or warm the horse up just a little. Horse racing is a not a "beauty contest". The three items you mention are secondary considerations.

···

----------------------------------------

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: bobbartop@yahoo.com
Date: Sun, 8 May 2011 07:42:52 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" wrote:
>
> Frank wrote: <
> these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive
> expectancies???>>
>
> I don't believe Coach Vee said his picks were positive expectation ones.
> That's not the term most race pickers use. There are some professional
> "syndicates" that do a lot of computer crunching for horseracing (and sports
> betting) and pure math is more of a factor although even then not the total
> picture since humans input the factors they think are important. However,
> a good handicapper would usually make up his own list of factors, based on
> his research and past experience.
>
> <
> horse math.>>
>
> Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.
>

In poker, reading body language can put one way in front of the math-only players. Successful horse players that I know would not even think about wagering without a thorough inspection in the paddock, the walking ring, and the pre-race warmup. Horsey tells! And thankfully, the masses will never go to the trouble of learning about this aspect of the game.

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#16

There are a very few instances in horse racing where you could have an edge by the math alone but you are still subject to the constant changing of the odds and those few instances require the ability to crunch numbers in seconds, have a very large bankroll and to be able to place wagers quickly.

Horse racing is "betting" not gambling.

···

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To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: frank@progressivevp.com
Date: Sun, 8 May 2011 07:30:03 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

No formula. Arrgh!!! Guess it's not for me then. Don't involve myself with things that eat.

I prefer pure math.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" wrote:
>
> Frank,
>
> There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.
>
> Chris
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" wrote:
> >
> > Would it be possible for you to provide the math work behind these picks that lead you to the conclusion that these were positive expectancies???
> >
> > Currently I have no way to double check your work because I don't know horse math.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, James Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > Unbelievable!!!!!!!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> > > From: sewellnj@
> > > Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 22:44:07 +0000
> > > Subject: Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Good Job Coach! I owe you a drink. Thanks John.
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: coachvee@
> > > To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
> > > Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpmail2@yahoogroups.com
> > > Sent: Friday, May 6, 2011 8:54:16 AM
> > > Subject: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi Gang:
> > > Here are my picks for tomorrow's Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> > > each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> > > Regards,
> > > CoachVee
> > > 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> > > to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> > > style perfect for this race and breeding says he'll love distance; picks up
> > > Eclipse-winning jock.
> > > 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> > > when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> > > preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> > > 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> > > including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> > > charging hard through stretch.
> > > 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> > > in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> > > with too much to do.
> > > LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> > > hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> > > surface.
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
>

------------------------------------

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Yahoo! Groups Links

#17

It also helps to be friendly with the trainers, grooms and AT's. The 24 hour diet and feeding schedule, can have a big effect on the horse being fast or slow.

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "bobbartop" <bobbartop@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, May 08, 2011 3:42 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

#18

It's not that hard. If there's an overlay, you should bet the Kelly optimal fraction (edge/odds) of your bankroll.

The Vegas "team" that won the most money of any "team" gambling (even yours) was called "The Computer Group":

http://www.google.com/search?q=sports+betting+computer+group

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

No he did not, but I thought I'd check the numbers, and if the math checked out take a small bet just for "fun".

Just so we're clear. I was describing a day spent learning new math as fun...not the betting.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@> wrote:

> Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.
>
>
>
> ________________
> Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
> http://queenofcomps.com/
> You can read my blog at
> http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>

#19

Horses win every day with poor physicality and poor warmups. But as a whole, good looking horses with good warmups do better than poor looking horses with poor warmups. And why not not give a horse a good warmup anyway? If he's ready and in sound shape, it's risking injury to send him out without a good warmup. Human track runners don't run a race without stretching and warming up.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@...> wrote:

"Successful horse players that I know would not even think about wagering
without a thorough inspection in the paddock, the walking ring, and the
pre-race warmup."

A "thorough" inspection? I disagree. Many times a horse will come over to the paddock and move little and sometimes a jock will not warm a horse up or warm the horse up just a little. Horse racing is a not a "beauty contest". The three items you mention are secondary considerations.

#20

Horseracing is like a big poker game. Instead of 8 to 10 players at the table, there are hundreds of trainers. Naturally, some are better than others. Just like poker players, some trainers are excellent. Also just like poker players, some trainers suck.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomflush" <tomflush@...> wrote:

It also helps to be friendly with the trainers, grooms and AT's. The 24 hour
diet and feeding schedule, can have a big effect on the horse being fast or
slow.