And, except in BIG races like the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup and big money
stakes races, there is also the very real possibility that a horse may be
entered to lose, or at least without the true intention to win.
Horses work their way into shape. A trainer/owner may have his eye on a race one
or two ahead of today's race, and view today's race as a training exercise, not
expecting to cash part of the purse. The "bad" race today serves a two-fold
purpose: getting the horse in shape for the goal race, and also serves to
increase the odds when the horse is really trying for the win.
Trainers get 10% of purse money earned, so on a typical day, the average purse
at Belmont park may be around $30,000. Most races will be in the $20,000 range,
say $25,000. First place gets 60% or $15,000; the winning trainer would get
$1,500. And that is a purse at a top track. Smaller tracks have significantly
smaller purses.
If a horse has had a couple of "poor" races that were really training exercises,
he may go off at 15 or 20 to 1, instead of 3-1 or 4-1. A shrewd trainer and
owner could earn a significant multiple of the purse money by betting their
now-in-top-form horse at the higher odds. Obviously at smaller tracks the
per-race handle is smaller, and a significant bet would drop the odds more than
at a larger track. But at every track there is a sweet spot where the
owner/trainer can cash a good size bet on a horse that they know is an overlay,
that the general public will overlook.
Horseracing is like a big poker game. Instead of 8 to 10 players at the table,
there are hundreds of trainers. Naturally, some are better than others. Justlike poker players, some trainers are excellent. Also just like poker players,
some trainers suck.
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