Seems like when I get a royal, it's most often when I get dealt three to the royal and redraw the other two. Has anyone worked out what sequence is most likely, and how to do the math on that question? My gut tells me the order is like this, from most common to least:
Dealt 3, Redealt 2
Dealt 4, Redealt 1
Dealt 2, Redealt 3
Dealt 1, Redealt 4
Dealt 5
Dealt 0, Redealt 5
my gut says that's correct for jacks-based games, but that it depends
on the game. i don't think you'll be getting many draw-4 royals
playing deuces wild. at least, i hope not. 
for 9/6 jacks:
dealt 5: 4 appearances, hits always, 4 total
dealt 4: 936 appearances, hits 1/47, 19.91 total
dealt 3: 28536 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,2) = 1/1081, 26.40 total
dealt 2: 166380 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,3) = 1/16215, 10.26 total
dealt 1: 402528 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,4) = 1/178365, 2.26 total
dealt 0: 84360 appearances, hits 4/combin(47,5) = 4/1533939 (since
there are four possible royal redraws), 0.055 total
"appearances" info is from frugal, the rest is just math. it's not
perfect, since sometimes you'll draw five and throw away a ten so
there are only three possible royal redraws, or sometimes you'll hold
an ace or king and throw away the suited ten making a royal
impossible, but close enough.
anyway, apparently our guts were wrong, the dealt royal is almost
twice as common as holding one and drawing four. the rest of your
ordering is correct.
cheers,
five
On Sat, Nov 7, 2009 at 4:09 PM, peppermillionaire <peppermillionaire@gmail.com> wrote:
Seems like when I get a royal, it's most often when I get dealt three to the royal and redraw the other two. Has anyone worked out what sequence is most likely, and how to do the math on that question? My gut tells me the order is like this, from most common to least:
Dealt 3, Redealt 2
Dealt 4, Redealt 1
Dealt 2, Redealt 3
Dealt 1, Redealt 4
Dealt 5
Dealt 0, Redealt 5
FWIW, last week when I was in Vegas, the guy sitting next to me got a
pat Royal. That was a rather unusual event I suspect.
From iPhone
On Nov 8, 2009, at 1:57 AM, fivespot <fivespot55@gmail.com> wrote:
On Sat, Nov 7, 2009 at 4:09 PM, peppermillionaire > <peppermillionaire@gmail.com> wrote:
> Seems like when I get a royal, it's most often when I get dealt
three to the royal and redraw the other two. Has anyone worked out
what sequence is most likely, and how to do the math on that
question? My gut tells me the order is like this, from most common
to least:
>
> Dealt 3, Redealt 2
> Dealt 4, Redealt 1
> Dealt 2, Redealt 3
> Dealt 1, Redealt 4
> Dealt 5
> Dealt 0, Redealt 5my gut says that's correct for jacks-based games, but that it depends
on the game. i don't think you'll be getting many draw-4 royals
playing deuces wild. at least, i hope not.for 9/6 jacks:
dealt 5: 4 appearances, hits always, 4 total
dealt 4: 936 appearances, hits 1/47, 19.91 total
dealt 3: 28536 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,2) = 1/1081, 26.40 total
dealt 2: 166380 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,3) = 1/16215, 10.26
total
dealt 1: 402528 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,4) = 1/178365, 2.26
total
dealt 0: 84360 appearances, hits 4/combin(47,5) = 4/1533939 (since
there are four possible royal redraws), 0.055 total"appearances" info is from frugal, the rest is just math. it's not
perfect, since sometimes you'll draw five and throw away a ten so
there are only three possible royal redraws, or sometimes you'll hold
an ace or king and throw away the suited ten making a royal
impossible, but close enough.anyway, apparently our guts were wrong, the dealt royal is almost
twice as common as holding one and drawing four. the rest of your
ordering is correct.cheers,
five
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Okay, this is the fourth time this has happened to me, and last night was the last time:
I was at the Wynn playing the $1.00 progressive which was up to $5100.00. I was dealt: 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd, Kc
I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.
I find this SO aggravating and disheartening - one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
Valerie
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You can on Joker wild K's or better (with the progressive that
high). Now if I could only find it in Dollars instead of Quarters.
Jim M.
I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.
I find this SO aggravating and disheartening - one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?Valerie
Okay, this is the fourth time this has happened to me, and last night was
the last time:
I was at the Wynn playing the $1.00 progressive which was up to $5100.00.
I was dealt: 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd, Kc
I would assume that you are incorrectly posting the hand, as you are showing
six cards on the initial deal.
I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been
playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when
the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.
The wife and I call this the son of a bitch hand.
I find this SO aggravating and disheartening
So do we, and to address the question in your subject line, I would guess
that I see this hand three or four times a week, but I play a lot of video
poker.
- one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
One certainly could if they want and that one will hit more royals that I,
but at the end of the line, wherever that might be, I will have more in my
pocket than that one will. Now if you are in fact comparing a two card
royal hold, JQs to a paying pair, in most $ progressive games, you will need
a royal somewhere north of $80,000.00 in order for this to be the correct
play. If you spot a $ prog. this high there is something wrong with the
meter.
Nudge
Valerie
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Subject: [vpFREE] How Many Times Has This Happened To You
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Cool, thanks for posting the math on this one, Five. You're right that there are some details that would need tweaking, but the differences are great enough that it shouldn't affect the order. So for Jacks or Better, the order from most common "path" to a royal to least common is: Dealt 3, Dealt 4, Dealt 2, Dealt 5, Dealt 1, Dealt 0. That's a pretty good trivia answer!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, fivespot <fivespot55@...> wrote:
On Sat, Nov 7, 2009 at 4:09 PM, peppermillionaire > <peppermillionaire@...> wrote:
> Seems like when I get a royal, it's most often when I get dealt three to the royal and redraw the other two. Has anyone worked out what sequence is most likely, and how to do the math on that question? My gut tells me the order is like this, from most common to least:
>
> Dealt 3, Redealt 2
> Dealt 4, Redealt 1
> Dealt 2, Redealt 3
> Dealt 1, Redealt 4
> Dealt 5
> Dealt 0, Redealt 5my gut says that's correct for jacks-based games, but that it depends
on the game. i don't think you'll be getting many draw-4 royals
playing deuces wild. at least, i hope not.for 9/6 jacks:
dealt 5: 4 appearances, hits always, 4 total
dealt 4: 936 appearances, hits 1/47, 19.91 total
dealt 3: 28536 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,2) = 1/1081, 26.40 total
dealt 2: 166380 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,3) = 1/16215, 10.26 total
dealt 1: 402528 appearances, hits 1/combin(47,4) = 1/178365, 2.26 total
dealt 0: 84360 appearances, hits 4/combin(47,5) = 4/1533939 (since
there are four possible royal redraws), 0.055 total"appearances" info is from frugal, the rest is just math. it's not
perfect, since sometimes you'll draw five and throw away a ten so
there are only three possible royal redraws, or sometimes you'll hold
an ace or king and throw away the suited ten making a royal
impossible, but close enough.anyway, apparently our guts were wrong, the dealt royal is almost
twice as common as holding one and drawing four. the rest of your
ordering is correct.cheers,
five
How many times has this happened to you?
You're dealt 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd
You keep the two queens.
You get dealt: Qc, 4c, 8h for a very quiet, very common three of a kind.
Utterly forgettable, but a heck of a lot more common than the 1-in-16,000 shot of filling in that royal!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@...> wrote:
From: "Valerie Pollard"
Subject: [vpFREE] How Many Times Has This Happened To You> Okay, this is the fourth time this has happened to me, and last night was
the last time:
> I was at the Wynn playing the $1.00 progressive which was up to $5100.00.
I was dealt: 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd, KcI would assume that you are incorrectly posting the hand, as you are showing
six cards on the initial deal.> I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been
playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when
the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.The wife and I call this the son of a bitch hand.
> I find this SO aggravating and disheartening
So do we, and to address the question in your subject line, I would guess
that I see this hand three or four times a week, but I play a lot of video
poker.- one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
>
One certainly could if they want and that one will hit more royals that I,
but at the end of the line, wherever that might be, I will have more in my
pocket than that one will. Now if you are in fact comparing a two card
royal hold, JQs to a paying pair, in most $ progressive games, you will need
a royal somewhere north of $80,000.00 in order for this to be the correct
play. If you spot a $ prog. this high there is something wrong with the
meter.
Nudge> Valerie
>
>
>
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>
> The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.
>
> http://www.eset.com
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
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>
Believe it or not, there was a play outside the USA a couple of years ago where you bought into a poker tournament, and it wasn't a big buy in, maybe $100 US or the equivalent, you got a coupon that any royal playing $1 8-5 Jacks was worth $50K (this casino, all denoms were USD).
I have heard of (theoretically) 1% meters hitting at $22K at dollars, and a number of times a Joker game (Royal top line) with a 2% meter, a longer cycle than Jacks, going off at $75K at $2 denom, and quite a few times over $50K. For a royal to go 6-8 cycles without hitting is unusual, but in the big scheme of thing statistically, it will happen from time to time.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "peppermillionaire" <peppermillionaire@...> wrote:
How many times has this happened to you?
You're dealt 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd
You keep the two queens.
You get dealt: Qc, 4c, 8h for a very quiet, very common three of a kind.
Utterly forgettable, but a heck of a lot more common than the 1-in-16,000 shot of filling in that royal!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@> wrote:
>
>
> From: "Valerie Pollard"
> Subject: [vpFREE] How Many Times Has This Happened To You
>
>
> > Okay, this is the fourth time this has happened to me, and last night was
> the last time:
> > I was at the Wynn playing the $1.00 progressive which was up to $5100.00.
> I was dealt: 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd, Kc
>
> I would assume that you are incorrectly posting the hand, as you are showing
> six cards on the initial deal.
>
> > I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been
> playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when
> the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.
>
> The wife and I call this the son of a bitch hand.
>
> > I find this SO aggravating and disheartening
>
> So do we, and to address the question in your subject line, I would guess
> that I see this hand three or four times a week, but I play a lot of video
> poker.
>
> - one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
> >
> One certainly could if they want and that one will hit more royals that I,
> but at the end of the line, wherever that might be, I will have more in my
> pocket than that one will. Now if you are in fact comparing a two card
> royal hold, JQs to a paying pair, in most $ progressive games, you will need
> a royal somewhere north of $80,000.00 in order for this to be the correct
> play. If you spot a $ prog. this high there is something wrong with the
> meter.
"I would assume that you are incorrectly posting the hand, as you are showing
six cards on the initial deal."
No, it's their new six card vp machines! Not really, I was distracted when I was posting that, sorry.
I like that: the son of a bitch hand!
Well, it makes me feel better that you've had so many....I thought my four was bad enough. I know, it really would be a way to lose money if you played every draw to the Royal - but there's that moment when it happens when you just *wish* that one time it might have occurred to you to play that one hand differently - that thought comes must before briefly trying to think of a way that the machine didn't let you hold the correct hand so that you can call the slot personnel over.....alas, at least it wasn't as bad as the one in Reno last year, which was for $7000.00. That one hurt.
Thanks, Nudge.
Valerie
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Ever see someone hold just a 10 and draw a royal? I've seen it, it happens. There are even some games where this is the correct max-EV strategy, but doing it can get you bounced as a suspected pro. Just like in Blackjack, the best play of the moment is not always the overall best play.
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_S.htm
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:
one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
Then I'm in no danger of being barred as a pro.
The only time I have ever held just a 10 is in the 99.92% version of 2 Pair or Better Joker with no joker in the initial five cards. And the only other game I'd even have considered holding just a 10 was 10's or Better. But I haven't seen that game anywhere in years.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Ever see someone hold just a 10 and draw a royal? I've seen it, it happens. There are even some games where this is the correct max-EV strategy, but doing it can get you bounced as a suspected pro. Just like in Blackjack, the best play of the moment is not always the overall best play.
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?
Ever see someone hold just a 10 and draw a royal? I've seen it, it happens. There are even some games where this is the correct max-EV strategy, but doing it can get you bounced as a suspected pro. Just like in Blackjack, the best play of the moment is not always the overall best play.
A few years back, I asked a similar question about how many big ones get
away. Never got an answer.
This would be a theoretical question for the mathematically enabled.
Assume just a 52 card deck (no jokers). If you could see the 5 redraw
cards before drawing any, what would be the cycle for the royal flush.
Imagine playing deuces wild, getting dealt 4 deuces and tossing them
because you could get a RF instead?
Keep in mind, dealt cards: Ah x x x x redraw cards: x Kh Qh Jh Th
would not count as a RF. Assume cards are redrawn left to right.
Dennis
vp-connoisseur
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:
Off the top of my head:
For 5 card stud, there are 52Combin5 possible deals, which equals 2,598,960.
The Dealt Royal comes in four possible suites: 4/2598960
The One Card Draw is four suites times 5 possible missing ranks: (4x5)/2598960 x 1/47 that the next card drawn hits
The Two Card Draw is (4x5x4)/2598960 x 2/(47x46) that the next two cards hit
The Three Card Draw is (4x5x4x3)/2598960 x (3x2)/(47x46x45) that the next three cards hit
The Four Card Draw is (4x5x4x3x2)/2598960 x (4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44) that the next four cards hit
The Redraw Royal is (what's left)/2598960 x (4x5x4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44x43) that the next five cards hit
Add all those up and you get the total probability, invert it and you get the average cycle.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cielaszyk <cacti-az@...> wrote:
If you could see the 5 redraw
cards before drawing any, what would be the cycle for the royal flush.
I have a royal holding a T (JW2), but it was 100 play. I do have a WR, Joker on the end, holding a T playing single line.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>>
> Ever see someone hold just a 10 and draw a royal? I've seen it, it happens. There are even some games where this is the correct max-EV strategy, but doing it can get you bounced as a suspected pro. Just like in Blackjack, the best play of the moment is not always the overall best play.
>Then I'm in no danger of being barred as a pro.
The only time I have ever held just a 10 is in the 99.92% version of 2 Pair or Better Joker with no joker in the initial five cards. And the only other game I'd even have considered holding just a 10 was 10's or Better. But I haven't seen that game anywhere in years.
Doug Reul has said he once held a ten at OEJ and came up with a royal. It is theoretically possible to hold a pair of tens at Draw Till U Win and come up with a royal, but I never did it, and don't know anyone who has.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>>
> Ever see someone hold just a 10 and draw a royal? I've seen it, it happens. There are even some games where this is the correct max-EV strategy, but doing it can get you bounced as a suspected pro. Just like in Blackjack, the best play of the moment is not always the overall best play.
>Then I'm in no danger of being barred as a pro.
The only time I have ever held just a 10 is in the 99.92% version of 2 Pair or Better Joker with no joker in the initial five cards. And the only other game I'd even have considered holding just a 10 was 10's or Better. But I haven't seen that game anywhere in years.
Valerie -
Don't beat yourself up over this one.
If you had held the Js your finger would have hit draw at a different fraction of a second, and the RNG would have almost certainly given you different draw cards, since it is continuously shuffling the 47 remaining cards until you hit draw.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:
Okay, this is the fourth time this has happened to me, and last night was the last time:
I was at the Wynn playing the $1.00 progressive which was up to $5100.00. I was dealt: 5h, 3c, Qs, Js, Qd, Kc
I held the two Queens though I noticed the Jack of spades, but I had been playing for a pretty long time and rather quickly - however I noticed when the As, 10s and Ks all came up on the redraw.
I find this SO aggravating and disheartening - one can't hold every possible draw to the Royal, can one?Valerie
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I can recall this happening to me on two occasions in my 13 years of playing VP, however, each time I also held the strategically correct cards instead of the ones for a possible royal.
And during both incidents (one playing quarters and one playing dollars - ouch), I yelped: "D-oh! Damn!"
nightoftheiguana2000 replied to my question:
If you could see the 5 redraw
cards before drawing any, what would be the cycle for the royal flush.
Off the top of my head:
For 5 card stud, there are 52Combin5 possible deals, which equals 2,598,960.
The Dealt Royal comes in four possible suites: 4/2598960
The One Card Draw is four suites times 5 possible missing ranks: (4x5)/2598960 x 1/47 that the next card drawn hits
The Two Card Draw is (4x5x4)/2598960 x 2/(47x46) that the next two cards hit
The Three Card Draw is (4x5x4x3)/2598960 x (3x2)/(47x46x45) that the next three cards hit
The Four Card Draw is (4x5x4x3x2)/2598960 x (4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44) that the next four cards hit
The Redraw Royal is (what's left)/2598960 x (4x5x4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44x43) that the next five cards hit
Add all those up and you get the total probability, invert it and you get the average cycle.
So if I did this correctly on Excel, I get:
Dealt = 1.53908E-06
One = 1.63732E-07
Two = 6.02532E-05
Three = 5.69501E-09
Four = 1.03546E-09
Redraw = 4.81608E-10
Total = 6.19633E-05
Cycle = 16138.59705
Then comparing the 16,139 cycle to 40,391 for 9/6 JOB and 45,282 for
FPDW we see how many "Big Ones" got away.
Thanks nightoftheiguana2000,
Dennis
vp-connoisseur
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
nightoftheiguana2000 replied to my question:
If you could see the 5 redraw
cards before drawing any, what would be the cycle for the royal flush.
Off the top of my head:For 5 card stud, there are 52Combin5 possible deals, which equals 2,598,960.
The Dealt Royal comes in four possible suites: 4/2598960
The One Card Draw is four suites times 5 possible missing ranks: (4x5)/2598960 x 1/47 that the next card drawn hits
The Two Card Draw is (4x5x4)/2598960 x 2/(47x46) that the next two cards hit
The Three Card Draw is (4x5x4x3)/2598960 x (3x2)/(47x46x45) that the next three cards hit
The Four Card Draw is (4x5x4x3x2)/2598960 x (4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44) that the next four cards hit
The Redraw Royal is (what's left)/2598960 x (4x5x4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44x43) that the next five cards hit
Add all those up and you get the total probability, invert it and you get the average cycle.
So if I did this correctly on Excel, I get:
Dealt = 1.53908E-06
One = 1.63732E-07
Two = 6.02532E-05
Three = 5.69501E-09
Four = 1.03546E-09
Redraw = 4.81608E-10Total = 6.19633E-05
Cycle = 16138.59705
Then comparing the 16,139 cycle to 40,391 for 9/6 JOB and 45,282 for
FPDW we see how many "Big Ones" got away.Thanks nightoftheiguana2000,
Dennis
vp-connoisseur
OOPS... error on the 2 card draw!
Dealt = 1.53908E-06
One = 1.63732E-07
Two = 2.84751E-08
Three = 5.69501E-09
Four = 1.03546E-09
Redraw = 4.81608E-10
Total = 1.7385E-06
Cycle = 575209.8618
So it's not significant when compared to the normal RF cycle?
Dennis
vp-connoisseur
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]