vpFREE2 Forums

What's the Most Common Sequence to a Royal Flush?

#21

Except I made some mistakes in the formulas like I forgot to include the extra blank cards.

Take 2:

Dealt Royal: 4/2598960 = 1.5E-6
Draw 1: (4x5x47)/2598960 x 1/47 = 7.7E-6
Draw 2: (4x5x4/2x47x46/2)/2598960 x 2/(47x46) = 1.5E-5
Draw 3: (4x5x4x3/6x47x46x45/6)/2598960 x (3x2)/(47x46x45) = 1.5E-5
Draw 4: (4x5x47x46x45x44/120)/2598960 x (4x3x2)/(47x46x45x44) = 1.5E-6
Draw 5: 47x46x45x44x43x4x5x4x3x2/52/51/50/49/48/47/46/45/44/43 = 1.5E-6

Total = 4.3E-5 = cycle of 23,205

About half the "normal" RF cycle. So, by not knowing what cards are coming up (ESP challenged), you're missing about half of the possible Royal Flushes. Obviously true clairvoyants are all banned from the casinos, except for the ones with the best cover plays. Alternately, you can play the "Royal Only Strategy" (which is often the best tournament strategy) and come up with about the same result, except it will cost you in EV in a cash game.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cielaszyk <cacti-az@...> wrote:

So it's not significant when compared to the normal RF cycle?

#22

And during both incidents (one playing quarters and one playing dollars - ouch), I yelped: "D-oh! Damn!"

Yes and what made it seem so much worse somehow was that I had just watched a man playing $100 denomination hit four aces w/kicker for $200,000.00. It made it seem so unfair, that I couldn't even hit the measly little $1 progressive! lol

Valerie

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#23

I did it. I held a pair of tens and have made a royal. TomSki

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Doug Reul has said he once held a ten at OEJ and came up with a royal. It is theoretically possible to hold a pair of tens at Draw Till U Win and come up with a royal, but I never did it, and don't know anyone who has.