In a message dated 10/25/2002 4:24:11 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
billvelek@alliancecable.net writes:
Are you unaware that there are actually some 100+ percent VP games, and
some that are so close that with cash-back added, you definitely have an
edge over the house -- WITH PERFECT PLAY?
Bill, you forgot to add............OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE MACHINE.
CF
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
<< Are you unaware that there are actually some 100+ percent VP games, and
some that are so close that with cash-back added, you definitely have an
edge over the house -- WITH PERFECT PLAY?
<<Bill, you forgot to add............OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE MACHINE>>
Two errors here that I want to explain to VP newbies. You do NOT need
PERFECT play. Good thing because I don't know any human being who is
perfect. Practicing and being "pretty accurate" (fairly accurate, don't
make too many major errors) is a more reasonable goal for most recreational
VP players. However, that leaves many VP games with too small of an edge or
even puts them under 100%. That is why I stress so long and hard that you
need to play with good slot club benefits, so human errors don't take you
below 100%. I recommend that if at all possible, especially in Vegas where
it is available so widely, that people choose FPDW and practice it on
software. With lots of practice most people can achieve 100.4 or 100.5% out
of the perfect 100.7%. Add slot club benefits, like playing only on double
point days at the Coast properties, utilizing the comp benefits - you are
very likely to end up a long-term winner.
Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on thousand of
machines.
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
Order autographed book, cassette tape, and the new
Frugal VP software at http://www.frugalgambler.biz
Read Frugal Fridays at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com
Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on thousand of
machines.<<
Jean, I'm not entirely sure about that part and I hope that you'll explain the reason in more detail. Since it's the machine that deals the cards, it seems to me that it's the machine's timeline that counts, not the player's timeline. This is specifically a topic that I discussed in detail in my own craps articles back in the early 90s. There is no math on this that I'm aware of, merely conjecture.
My thesis was that a player punches into the table's timeline and does not see the normal distribution curve, merely deviations. The difference is, that in craps it's to the player's benefit not to see the curve, since the majority of sevens thrown favor the house.
Anyway, it's always seemed to me that the timeline belongs to the table, or machine. Can you give more details?
lb
----- Original Message -----
From: Jean Scott
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 9:28 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
<< Are you unaware that there are actually some 100+ percent VP games, and
> some that are so close that with cash-back added, you definitely have an
> edge over the house -- WITH PERFECT PLAY?
<<Bill, you forgot to add............OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE MACHINE>>
Two errors here that I want to explain to VP newbies. You do NOT need
PERFECT play. Good thing because I don't know any human being who is
perfect. Practicing and being "pretty accurate" (fairly accurate, don't
make too many major errors) is a more reasonable goal for most recreational
VP players. However, that leaves many VP games with too small of an edge or
even puts them under 100%. That is why I stress so long and hard that you
need to play with good slot club benefits, so human errors don't take you
below 100%. I recommend that if at all possible, especially in Vegas where
it is available so widely, that people choose FPDW and practice it on
software. With lots of practice most people can achieve 100.4 or 100.5% out
of the perfect 100.7%. Add slot club benefits, like playing only on double
point days at the Coast properties, utilizing the comp benefits - you are
very likely to end up a long-term winner.
Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on thousand of
machines.
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
Order autographed book, cassette tape, and the new
Frugal VP software at http://www.frugalgambler.biz
Read Frugal Fridays at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
By law in Nevada the machine deals from a virtual deck of cards "Randomly" .
If the deal is random then it doesn't matter which machine you play (as long as it is the same pay table).i.e. If I had 2 decks of cards 1 red and 1 blue and put them through a shufflemaster machine before each deal and dealt you 100 hands from each deck, would it matter which color of deck you chose ?
Contrary to some beliefs the machines do not have a cycle. If there are 300,000 combinations in a deck of cards, it doesn't mean that the machine is set to deal all those hands in a cycle, and then start over.
Knowing the possible combinations allows one to determine the potential payback of the machine.
To be more accurate I should say that it allows you to determine the potential payback for any machine with that particular paytable.
i.e. there is no table with a timeline on a video poker machine.
Regards
A.P.
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Boxer
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 12:58 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
>>Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on thousand of
machines.<<
Jean, I'm not entirely sure about that part and I hope that you'll explain the reason in more detail. Since it's the machine that deals the cards, it seems to me that it's the machine's timeline that counts, not the player's timeline. This is specifically a topic that I discussed in detail in my own craps articles back in the early 90s. There is no math on this that I'm aware of, merely conjecture.
My thesis was that a player punches into the table's timeline and does not see the normal distribution curve, merely deviations. The difference is, that in craps it's to the player's benefit not to see the curve, since the majority of sevens thrown favor the house.
Anyway, it's always seemed to me that the timeline belongs to the table, or machine. Can you give more details?
lb
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
<<Anyway, it's always seemed to me that the timeline belongs to the table,
or machine. Can you give more details?>>
I think I will let some of the math people do that.
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
Order autographed book, cassette tape, and the new
Frugal VP software at http://www.frugalgambler.biz
Read Frugal Fridays at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com
Contrary to some beliefs the machines do not have a cycle. If there are 300,000 combinations in a deck of cards, it doesn't mean that the machine is set to deal all those hands in a cycle, and then start over.<<
That is true, but it overlooks the fact that over time, certain events are more likely than other events, and that during the timeline of a machine, it's probable that something approaching the normal distribution curve will occur, not contrary to randomness but because of it. That's why there are pay tables. They reflect the long-term distribution.
But the subject of timelines, while kind of esoteric, has nothing to do with cycles.
lb
----- Original Message -----
From: Albert Pearson
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:22 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
By law in Nevada the machine deals from a virtual deck of cards "Randomly" .
If the deal is random then it doesn't matter which machine you play (as long as it is the same pay table).i.e. If I had 2 decks of cards 1 red and 1 blue and put them through a shufflemaster machine before each deal and dealt you 100 hands from each deck, would it matter which color of deck you chose ?
Contrary to some beliefs the machines do not have a cycle. If there are 300,000 combinations in a deck of cards, it doesn't mean that the machine is set to deal all those hands in a cycle, and then start over.
Knowing the possible combinations allows one to determine the potential payback of the machine.
To be more accurate I should say that it allows you to determine the potential payback for any machine with that particular paytable.
i.e. there is no table with a timeline on a video poker machine.
Regards
A.P.
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Boxer
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 12:58 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
>>Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on thousand of
machines.<<
Jean, I'm not entirely sure about that part and I hope that you'll explain the reason in more detail. Since it's the machine that deals the cards, it seems to me that it's the machine's timeline that counts, not the player's timeline. This is specifically a topic that I discussed in detail in my own craps articles back in the early 90s. There is no math on this that I'm aware of, merely conjecture.
My thesis was that a player punches into the table's timeline and does not see the normal distribution curve, merely deviations. The difference is, that in craps it's to the player's benefit not to see the curve, since the majority of sevens thrown favor the house.
Anyway, it's always seemed to me that the timeline belongs to the table, or machine. Can you give more details?
lb
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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I think I will let some of the math people do that.<<
Oh noooooooooo!!!!! <g>
I'll look forward to hearing more about it. btw, I apologize for hogging up so much time tonight. I'm going nuts without a World Series game tonight (what's the line on the Angels tomorrow?) and TV sucks. On the bright side, there's an unopened box of Ding Dongs in the kitchen. See you guys later.lb
----- Original Message -----
From: Jean Scott
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:58 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
<<Anyway, it's always seemed to me that the timeline belongs to the table,
or machine. Can you give more details?>>
I think I will let some of the math people do that.
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
Order autographed book, cassette tape, and the new
Frugal VP software at http://www.frugalgambler.biz
Read Frugal Fridays at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE
vpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@y..., "Lawrence Boxer" <ljboxer@e...> wrote:
>>Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If
you play the
same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether
you play
thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on
thousand of
machines.<<
Jean, I'm not entirely sure about that part and I hope that you'll
explain the reason in more detail. Since it's the machine that deals
the cards, it seems to me that it's the machine's timeline that
counts, not the player's timeline. This is specifically a topic that
I discussed in detail in my own craps articles back in the early
90s. There is no math on this that I'm aware of, merely conjecture.
If all hands from all machines are completely separate and random
events, then what does it matter who's timeline I'm in? I suddenly
feel I have been deposited in a Doctor Who episode;-)
Lawrence Boxer wrote:
>>Contrary to some beliefs the machines do not have a cycle. If there are 300,000 combinations in a deck of cards, it doesn't mean that the machine is set to deal all those hands in a cycle, and then start over.<<
Well, pseudorandom number generators do have cycles, but as I
understand it, because random numbers are generated continuously and
quickly on a VP machine, the cycle of a VP machine is very short (a
second or two). You probably cannot hit the Play button (grabs a
random number, "shuffles" the deck using that number, and draws the
first 5 cards), select the cards to keep, and hit Draw (fills out the
hand from the same shuffled deck and awards any winnings) within a
single cycle.
That is true, but it overlooks the fact that over time, certain events are more likely than other events, and that during the timeline of a machine, it's probable that something approaching the normal distribution curve will occur, not contrary to randomness but because of it. That's why there are pay tables. They reflect the long-term distribution.
But the subject of timelines, while kind of esoteric, has nothing to do with cycles.
Here's the problem with your thinking on timelines. Because each deal
on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there
is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the
previous deal, so they can be considered independent.
--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...
Because each deal on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the previous deal, so they can be considered independent.<<<
After playing VP for more than a year (I know a rookie by most of your standards) I agree with the random nature. Here are 2 instances from our last trip. Nancy hit 4 kings on a 5 card discard then the very next hand was dealt four 3's. Then hit about 22 Quads in a 9 hour period on the same machine. Conversly I went quadless.
Jay
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Jay-
If you play this game long enough, you'll see almost everything. It's a by-product of the random-number generators.
I've been playing advantage VP for about two years. In that time: I've hit back-to-back quads _ and gone through 5-hour sessions without hitting even one. I hit three Pick Em straight flushes in one week- and gone 8 hours without even hitting a quad. I've hit two royals in one week, then gone 5 months before hitting the next one.
Assuming the machines are truly random, as Nev, NJ and other regulated jurisdictions require, there is no "cycle" to be played out. It's just like single-deck blackjack, live poker or a coin-flipping game. The odds don't change because you use a new deck of cards or a different coin.
Blessings and royals to all.
Elaine
After playing VP for more than a year (I know a rookie by most of your standards) I agree with the random nature. Here are 2 instances from our last trip. Nancy hit 4 kings on a 5 card discard then the very next hand was dealt four 3's. Then hit about 22 Quads in a 9 hour period on the same machine. Conversly I went quadless.
Jay
---------------------------------
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Y! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your web site
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@y..., "Pat O'Connell" <nvcaver@l...> wrote:
Well, pseudorandom number generators do have cycles, but as I
understand it, because random numbers are generated continuously and
quickly on a VP machine, the cycle of a VP machine is very short (a
second or two). You probably cannot hit the Play button (grabs a
random number, "shuffles" the deck using that number, and draws the
first 5 cards), select the cards to keep, and hit Draw (fills out
the
hand from the same shuffled deck and awards any winnings) within a
single cycle.Pat O'Connell
Pat, I'd like to know where you get your information. The last thing
I heard was that VP RNGs generated around 1000 numbers/second. This
would not come close to your "second or two" for the 15820024220
possible combinations of 10 cards. I realize modern computers "could"
generate numbers faster but I have no evidence this is the case in
current VP inventory.
If the 1000 numbers/second is accurate then I see no reason why
machines would not have "hot and cold" periods.
Comments?
Dick
52 cards is only 2,598,000 approx.
Where did you get your 10 card number?
On Sat, 26 Oct 2002 17:00:16 -0000, you wrote:
--- In vpFREE@y..., "Pat O'Connell" <nvcaver@l...> wrote:
Well, pseudorandom number generators do have cycles, but as I
understand it, because random numbers are generated continuously and
quickly on a VP machine, the cycle of a VP machine is very short (a
second or two). You probably cannot hit the Play button (grabs a
random number, "shuffles" the deck using that number, and draws the
first 5 cards), select the cards to keep, and hit Draw (fills outthe
hand from the same shuffled deck and awards any winnings) within a
single cycle.Pat O'Connell
Pat, I'd like to know where you get your information. The last thing
I heard was that VP RNGs generated around 1000 numbers/second. This
would not come close to your "second or two" for the 15820024220
possible combinations of 10 cards. I realize modern computers "could"
generate numbers faster but I have no evidence this is the case in
current VP inventory.If the 1000 numbers/second is accurate then I see no reason why
machines would not have "hot and cold" periods.Comments?
Dick
vpFREE Home Page:
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rgmustain wrote:
--- In vpFREE@y..., "Pat O'Connell" <nvcaver@l...> wrote:
> Well, pseudorandom number generators do have cycles, but as I
> understand it, because random numbers are generated continuously and
> quickly on a VP machine, the cycle of a VP machine is very short (a
> second or two). You probably cannot hit the Play button (grabs a
> random number, "shuffles" the deck using that number, and draws the
> first 5 cards), select the cards to keep, and hit Draw (fills out
the
> hand from the same shuffled deck and awards any winnings) within a
> single cycle.
>
> Pat O'ConnellPat, I'd like to know where you get your information. The last thing
I heard was that VP RNGs generated around 1000 numbers/second. This
would not come close to your "second or two" for the 15820024220
possible combinations of 10 cards. I realize modern computers "could"
generate numbers faster but I have no evidence this is the case in
current VP inventory.
Depends on the speed of the processor, I'm sure. It's my understanding
that the RNGs are special chips that do nothing but generate random
numbers, and are independent of the processor that responds to buttons
(except of course when the Play button event retrieves a number),
displays cards, and awards winnings. A guy at work is a systems
programmer that used to work for either Bally or IGT, and most of my
information comes from him.
If the 1000 numbers/second is accurate then I see no reason why
machines would not have "hot and cold" periods.
I really don't know if that's accurate or not, but if it takes 10
seconds to play a hand, then if 1000 numbers/second have gone by, then
~10000 numbers have been calculated between the previous play and the
current one, and the correlation between the previous hand and the
next hand will be minimal.
In other words, the machine doesn't have a "hot or cold period," it's
a short term set of random numbers you've selected, that (after you've
made your selection(s)--the skill part) happen to give winners or
losers.
--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...
The order of the cards matter. PERMUT in excel is the function you want.
=PERMUT(52,10) = 5.74077E+16
=COMBIN(52,10) = 15820024220 Where order doesn't matter.
computers generate pseudo-random numbers. All the numbers in a sequence will
repeat in the same order. PRNG's can generate numbers greater that 1E9 per
second. I don't know how fast poker machines generate them.
5e16/1e9 seconds is a long time. So I'm guessing that there's 2 draws 1 for
the 1st 5 cards and 1 for the 2nd. That way the PRNG's could go through
their complete their cycles in the time it takes from hitting the deal
button to hitting the draw button
PERMUT(52,5)=3.12E+08
PERMUT(47,5)=1.84E+08
Gary
Pat, I'd like to know where you get your information. The last thing
I heard was that VP RNGs generated around 1000 numbers/second. This
would not come close to your "second or two" for the 15820024220
possible combinations of 10 cards. I realize modern computers "could"
generate numbers faster but I have no evidence this is the case in
current VP inventory.If the 1000 numbers/second is accurate then I see no reason why
machines would not have "hot and cold" periods.Comments?
Dick
DOH, replying to myself is that like talking to myself? I got the order of
the buttons pushed wrong. The deal button starts the hand and would be when
the PRNG is picked. I'd guess after picking the numbers the PRNG could
continue it's cycle going through all possible hands and draws about 10
times a second.
Gary
Wrom: ADRZFSQHYUCDDJBLVLMHAA
----- Original Message -----
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:07 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
The order of the cards matter. PERMUT in excel is the function you want.
=PERMUT(52,10) = 5.74077E+16
=COMBIN(52,10) = 15820024220 Where order doesn't matter.
computers generate pseudo-random numbers. All the numbers in a sequence
will
repeat in the same order. PRNG's can generate numbers greater that 1E9 per
second. I don't know how fast poker machines generate them.
5e16/1e9 seconds is a long time. So I'm guessing that there's 2 draws 1
for
the 1st 5 cards and 1 for the 2nd. That way the PRNG's could go through
their complete their cycles in the time it takes from hitting the deal
button to hitting the draw button
PERMUT(52,5)=3.12E+08
PERMUT(47,5)=1.84E+08Gary
"Elliott L.Shapiro" wrote:
52 cards is only 2,598,000 approx.
Where did you get your 10 card number?
To use combinatorics notation, (52 choose 10), or 1.582 X 10^10 might
be right, because 10 cards are drawn per hand. Can someone confirm
this (my combinatorics is rusty)?
--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...
If all hands from all machines are completely separate and random
events, then what does it matter who's timeline I'm in? I suddenly
feel I have been deposited in a Doctor Who episode;-)<<
Good show, thanks! <g> It probably doesn't matter, but if it did it would be only because of the normal distribution of hands over time.
lb
----- Original Message -----
From: cmayhem2001
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 7:23 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
--- In vpFREE@y..., "Lawrence Boxer" <ljboxer@e...> wrote:
> >>Second, your long-term does not need to be on one machine. If
you play the
> same pay schedule in a regulated casino, it does not matter whether
you play
> thousands of hands on one machine, or play one hand each on
thousand of
> machines.<<
>
> Jean, I'm not entirely sure about that part and I hope that you'll
explain the reason in more detail. Since it's the machine that deals
the cards, it seems to me that it's the machine's timeline that
counts, not the player's timeline. This is specifically a topic that
I discussed in detail in my own craps articles back in the early
90s. There is no math on this that I'm aware of, merely conjecture.
>
If all hands from all machines are completely separate and random
events, then what does it matter who's timeline I'm in? I suddenly
feel I have been deposited in a Doctor Who episode;-)
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Because each deal on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the
previous deal, so they can be considered independent.<<
Pat, I must respectfully disagree. There is a timeline and the normal distribution of hands over time is a picture of it. Whether or not that timeline should be a factor in play is another matter.
lb
----- Original Message -----
From: Pat O'Connell
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 8:24 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play
Lawrence Boxer wrote:
>
> >>Contrary to some beliefs the machines do not have a cycle. If there are 300,000 combinations in a deck of cards, it doesn't mean that the machine is set to deal all those hands in a cycle, and then start over.<<
Well, pseudorandom number generators do have cycles, but as I
understand it, because random numbers are generated continuously and
quickly on a VP machine, the cycle of a VP machine is very short (a
second or two). You probably cannot hit the Play button (grabs a
random number, "shuffles" the deck using that number, and draws the
first 5 cards), select the cards to keep, and hit Draw (fills out the
hand from the same shuffled deck and awards any winnings) within a
single cycle.
> That is true, but it overlooks the fact that over time, certain events are more likely than other events, and that during the timeline of a machine, it's probable that something approaching the normal distribution curve will occur, not contrary to randomness but because of it. That's why there are pay tables. They reflect the long-term distribution.
>
> But the subject of timelines, while kind of esoteric, has nothing to do with cycles.
Here's the problem with your thinking on timelines. Because each deal
on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there
is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the
previous deal, so they can be considered independent.
--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE
vpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I'd think that we're all in everyone's timeline. If I play a particular machine I'm part of its long-term sequence but I'm also in my own long-term sequence. If the person next to me asks if they should hold a straight with 2 dueces I'm becoming involved in their timeline.
But it doesn't matter since every "timeline" operates in hot and cold streaks. But since the occurrence and duration is unknown beforehand it makes no difference. If I drain a $100 bill below 10 generating only $300 coin-in, then hit the ducks, then drain another $100 as quickly (as happened one day last week) I can legitimately say that I had a bad cold streak, followed by a very short but very lucrative hot streak (one hand) followed by another cold streak. So what? What good does that information do me after the fact? Except that psychologically most of us do play that game.
Wish I could be deposited in a Twilight Zone episode where I happen to know when the streaks will come.....
>>If all hands from all machines are completely separate and random
events, then what does it matter who's timeline I'm in? I suddenly
feel I have been deposited in a Doctor Who episode;-)<<