vpFREE2 Forums

Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play

#21

Lawrence Boxer wrote:

>>Because each deal on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the
previous deal, so they can be considered independent.<<

Pat, I must respectfully disagree. There is a timeline and the normal distribution of hands over time is a picture of it. Whether or not that timeline should be a factor in play is another matter.

Assuming you're a computer person or know something about statistics,
I'll suggest that you consult Knuth's "Art of Computer Programming
Vol. 2, Seminumerical Algorithms" which is the authority on
pseudo-random number generators, among other things. I have a
copy--maybe time for some review for me, also.

···

--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...

#22

I'm not suggesting that each card is not totally independent from others. In fact, in an earlier post I stated that BJ is the only popular casino game that is (consistently) beatable precisely because prior decisions do have an effect on subsequent decisions, giving professional card counters their edge, but that this was not the case in other games, including vp. That post was in the context of whether or not luck is a factor.

Still, the normal distribution does show up, over time, regardless of whether or not each card is an independent random event. No?

lb

···

From: Pat O'Connell
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 1:52 PM
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Was Ban RS/ Bill V, Perfect Play

  Lawrence Boxer wrote:
  >
  > >>Because each deal on any (or all) VP machines is independent of all other deals, there is no timeline. That is, one deal is not dependent in any way on the
  > previous deal, so they can be considered independent.<<
  >
  > Pat, I must respectfully disagree. There is a timeline and the normal distribution of hands over time is a picture of it. Whether or not that timeline should be a factor in play is another matter.

  Assuming you're a computer person or know something about statistics,
  I'll suggest that you consult Knuth's "Art of Computer Programming
  Vol. 2, Seminumerical Algorithms" which is the authority on
  pseudo-random number generators, among other things. I have a
  copy--maybe time for some review for me, also.

  --
  Pat O'Connell
  Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
  Kill nothing but vandals...

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#23

But it doesn't matter since every "timeline" operates in hot and cold
streaks. But since the occurrence and duration is unknown beforehand it
makes no difference. If I drain a $100 bill below 10 generating only $300
coin-in, then hit the ducks, then drain another $100 as quickly (as
happened one day last week)

  I had a day like that last week too. Instead of deuces, I
got a RF, but I also lost a lot more than 2 C notes very quickly.
I think I won a total of $370 in about 4 hours of play. Despite
the RF, a session like that is not much fun.

  QZ

#24

Lawrence Boxer wrote:

I'm not suggesting that each card is not totally independent from others. In fact, in an earlier post I stated that BJ is the only popular casino game that is (consistently) beatable precisely because prior decisions do have an effect on subsequent decisions, giving professional card counters their edge, but that this was not the case in other games, including vp. That post was in the context of whether or not luck is a factor.

Still, the normal distribution does show up, over time, regardless of whether or not each card is an independent random event. No?

The question is whether each dealt hand of 10 cards is independent
from the next. Since the time period between hands dealt is
unpredictable, and the (large but variable) number of pseudorandom
numbers generated between hands is unpredictable, it suggests that
each hand will be independent from the next. However, it's been long
enough since I've delved deeply enough into this sort of sampling to
be able to say that yes it's the case. However, the NV regulators have
testers whose jobs are to test for randomness in VP machines. If a
game doesn't pass their tests or analysis, that game doesn't make it
into the casino.

···

--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...