Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
Ooops. Failed to mention Progressive was at $545.15.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
Congratulations! What a great hand. I have never had a dealt royal but 4 dealt straight flushes.
To: vpF…@…com
From: neocac…@…com
Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2013 17:25:28 -0800
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Ooops. Failed to mention Progressive was at $545.15.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
From: ken orgera <ken…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpf…@…com>
Sent: Monday, November 4, 2013 6:26 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Congratulations! What a great hand. I have never had a dealt royal but 4 dealt straight flushes.
To: vpF…@…com
From: neocac…@…com
Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2013 17:25:28 -0800
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Ooops. Failed to mention Progressive was at $545.15.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
Hardcore VP players play millions of hands per year. Even the weekend warrior who plays 20 hours per weekend at 1000 hands per hour logs a million hands per year. Someone like Frank “Secret World of Video Poker” in his prime probably averaged 100 hours per week at 3000 hands per hour which is over 15 million hands per year.
—In vpF…@…com, <realcaman92373@…> wrote:
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
From: ken orgera <keno60@…>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpf…@…com>
Sent: Monday, November 4, 2013 6:26 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Congratulations! What a great hand. I have never had a dealt royal but 4 dealt straight flushes.
To: vpF…@…com
From: neocacher@…
Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2013 17:25:28 -0800
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Ooops. Failed to mention Progressive was at $545.15.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps
<queenofco…@…net>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
Exactly how many hands is the long term? I haven’t played much VP and now I don’t want to start unless I know precisely how many hands to play.
Ed
On Nov 11, 2013 3:43 PM, “RWS” <realcaman92…@…com> wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps
<queenofco…@…net>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
What do you mean by the "long term?"
I hope I've done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I'll be corrected if not:
Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They've played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They're 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn't statistically significant, what is?
RWS wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn't address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don't understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It's very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn't approach the long term either.
________________________________
From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@cox.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.------------------------------------------
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog
at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.________________________________
A million dollars in the bank after 25 years is statistical significant enough for me. But that’s just me – I was an English major, not a math major.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2013 3:30 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: [SPAM]Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term e
From:
Queen of Comps <queenofco…@…net>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
… and previously:
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone
explain that on this site.
—In vpF…@…com, RWS <realcaman92373@…> wrote:
So, RWS, what is your concept of “long-term” based on?
Is it framed from some Sagan-esque expert who once opined that the long-term in video poker involves billions and billions of hands?
Or perhaps it reflects the experience of a player lacking the discipline that gives rise to reliably profitable vp play (and who assumes as a consequence that no one else can reasonably aspire to such play).
The most realistic and tangible concept of the “long term”, when it comes to video poker, is the length of play required to have strong confidence of a positive result. This has been discussed in this forum by the likes of nightoftheiguana.
Those discussions involve the statistical concept of N0. The bottom line is that an active player who keeps a rein on variance, and consistently plays at a respectable edge, can look for a positive play outcome over a fairly standard course of play (conceivably under 1 millions hands, for a game like Jacks or Better) with strong confidence.
For you to suggest that an adept player, like Jean, couldn’t possibly be playing into the “long term”, even after 25 years, betrays a surprisingly limited imagination where it comes to vp possibilities and potential.
From: Queen of Comps
<queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog
at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!
How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.
In Brad and Jean’s case ( at least for the last several years) I’d guess most of their profit comes from the extras and not the games themselves. So, your sd calculation isn’t appropriate in this case. The variance of cash back is 0. You know exactly what your cash back will be.
As for long term, I think people get way too hung up on the concept. Take Jacks or Better (9/6) for example.
In this game, the royal flush is 80% of the variance and only 2% of the return. You hit a royal about every 40390 ( royal cycle for JOB). So, let’s say you play 80780 hands ( 20 cycles). Your full house down to 1 pair will be very close to the expected value and even if they aren’t very close, the effect on return isn’t that great. SF has more variance than those hands but is only 0.55% of your overall return and only about 1.5% of your total variance. The real question of whether or not you have hit your ‘long term’ results is all tied up in the royal flush. After 20 cycles, p(20 royals) = 8.88%. Less than 9% of the time will you hit the ‘expected’ number of royals. Each royal away from the expected number after 20 cycles is 0.1% away from expected value. Hit 25 royals, and you’ll be around 100% for your return. Hit 15 royals and you’ll be around 99% for your return. I don’t know of any way to predict how many royals I will hit in 20 cycles of JOB. If I did, I could very accurately predict what my results would be.
The royal return is such a dominant factor ( in JOB) that in the ‘long term’, its results swamp all the other results. We have all played for a couple of hours, not hit a royal and still had a positive session. It will happen. I doubt that many people have played 2 royal cycles, not hit a royal and been positive for that session.
Now, as you play more bonus type games, the variance is spread over more hand types but the concept is the same. In video poker, the very rare hands tend to pay the most and contribution the most to the variance.
What do you mean by the “long term?”
I hope I’ve done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I’ll be corrected if not:
Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They’ve played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They’re 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn’t statistically significant, what is?
RWS wrote:
—In vpF…@…com, <007@…> wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog
at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.
Variance is additive, so yes, the variance of the games counts. Cash back doesn’t add to the variance, but it doesn’t reduce it either.
In Brad and Jean’s case ( at least for the last several years) I’d guess most of their profit comes from the extras and not the games themselves. So, your sd calculation isn’t appropriate in this case. The variance of cash back is 0. You know exactly what your cash back will be.
As for long term, I think people get way too hung up on the concept. Take Jacks or Better (9/6) for example.
In this game, the royal flush is 80% of the variance and only 2% of the return. You hit a royal about every 40390 ( royal cycle for JOB). So, let’s say you play 80780 hands ( 20 cycles). Your full house down to 1 pair will be very close to the expected value and even if they aren’t very close, the effect on return isn’t that great. SF has more variance than those hands but is only 0.55% of your overall return and only about 1.5% of your total variance. The real question of whether or not you have hit your ‘long term’ results is all tied up in the royal flush. After 20 cycles, p(20 royals) = 8.88%. Less than 9% of the time will you hit the ‘expected’ number of royals. Each royal away from the expected number after 20 cycles is 0.1% away from expected value. Hit 25 royals, and you’ll be around 100% for your return. Hit 15 royals and you’ll be around 99% for your return. I don’t know of any way to predict how many royals I will hit in 20 cycles of JOB. If I did, I could very accurately predict what my results would be.
The royal return is such a dominant factor ( in JOB) that in the ‘long term’, its results swamp all the other results. We have all played for a couple of hours, not hit a royal and still had a positive session. It will happen. I doubt that many people have played 2 royal cycles, not hit a royal and been positive for that session.
Now, as you play more bonus type games, the variance is spread over more hand types but the concept is the same. In video poker, the very rare hands tend to pay the most and contribution the most to the variance.
—In vpF…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote:
—In vpF…@…com, <007@…> wrote:
What do you mean by the “long term?”
I hope I’ve done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I’ll be corrected if not:Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They’ve played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They’re 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn’t statistically significant, what is?RWS wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog
at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.
John,
Your post lacks any context from which to guess exactly to whom and to what you’re replying … (I’m gonna guess the obscure nature of the new “neo” format is at the root)
In Brad and Jean’s case ( at least for the last several years) I’d guess most of their profit comes from the extras and not the games themselves. So, your sd calculation isn’t appropriate in this case. The variance of cash back is 0. You know exactly what your cash back will be.
As for long term, I think people get way too hung up on the concept. Take Jacks or Better (9/6) for example.
In this game, the royal flush is 80% of the variance and only 2% of the return. You hit a royal about every 40390 ( royal cycle for JOB). So, let’s say you play 80780 hands ( 20 cycles). Your full house down to 1 pair will be very close to the expected value and even if they aren’t very close, the effect on return isn’t that great. SF has more variance than those hands but is only 0.55% of your overall return and only about 1.5% of your total variance. The real question of whether or not you have hit your ‘long term’ results is all tied up in the royal flush. After 20 cycles, p(20 royals) = 8.88%. Less than 9% of the time will you hit the ‘expected’ number of royals. Each royal away from the expected number after 20 cycles is 0.1% away from expected value. Hit 25 royals, and you’ll be around 100% for your return. Hit 15 royals and you’ll be around 99% for your return. I don’t know of any way to predict how many royals I will hit in 20 cycles of JOB. If I did, I could very accurately predict what my results would be.
The royal return is such a dominant factor ( in JOB) that in the ‘long term’, its results swamp all the other results. We have all played for a couple of hours, not hit a royal and still had a positive session. It will happen. I doubt that many people have played 2 royal cycles, not hit a royal and been positive for that session.
Now, as you play more bonus type games, the variance is spread over more hand types but the concept is the same. In video poker, the very rare hands tend to pay the most and contribution the most to the variance.
—In vpF…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote:
—In vpF…@…com, <007@…> wrote:
What do you mean by the “long term?”
I hope I’ve done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I’ll be corrected if not:Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They’ve played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They’re 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn’t statistically significant, what is?RWS wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog
at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.
I have “an answer” to this question I thought I’d throw out. Say you’re a tourist in Vegas, mostly into the club scene, gambling itself is repulsive to you and a total waste of time, however a “friend” makes a proposition: If you can survive 1000 hands of 9-6 jacks, totally on a lark, never having to gamble again in your lifetime, you will get some reward: cash, drugs, sex, food, drink, swag, whatever. You have a smart phone so you quickly ascertain the hit cycles and returns for the game for maxEV. Your benchmark is 5 cycles, that’s what your stats guru told you, so only the stuff below a quad counts, and you count the returns of those up and you get a return of 91%. Now you know what 1000 hands will cost you in dollars, approximately, and you can decide whether or not the proposition is worth your time or not. If you decide to go through with this prop bet, you can further optimize your draw strategy as well, by discounting quads or better, getting a better return of almost 92%. Alternately, this “friend”, could be a casino promotion.
Exactly how many hands is the long term? I haven’t played much VP and now I don’t want to start unless I know precisely how many hands to play.
Ed
—In vpF…@…com, <ed.miller@…> wrote:
On Nov 11, 2013 3:43 PM, “RWS” <realcaman92373@…> wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps
<queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
Significance.
Alright, here goes nothing about “long-term” math since someone said nobody did. We need to be very explicit about the question being asked to talk about variance or expectation because I’m sure it is confusing!
Some Questions:
How many royals can I expect from 20 million hands and with what variance?
What is the expectation and variance of my “average payoff” over all 20 million hands?
What is the expectation of the amount of money I’ll end with after 20 million hands? What is the variance?
Okay so video poker, assume optimal card holding, it’s just an empirical distribution (specific probabilities for each payout). You can use standard formulas to calculate the mean and variance. For arguments sake, assume it is a 100% EV game ($0 goes to you) and we’ll take the variance of 40 above. But just know that you can only hit certain values if you played let’s say 5 games ($-25 to $5royals).
Expectations and Variances:
you expect to get one every 40,000 hands I think. Your distribution is binomial p=1/40k and n=20 million. Resulting expectation is np= 500 and variance is np(1-p) = 500, so standard deviation is 22.
This is where your square root of n comes in. The average of 20 million independent games will have expectation $0 and standard error sqrt(40)/sqrt(20 million) which is like 1.5 in a 1000 — in other words super small. But, nobody cares much about this sampling distribution?
This is the question people care about usually because it’s your money. Unfortunately, this is more up and down. Although the expectation is still $0, the variances usually sum, so you’re talking about 40 times 20 million which results in the original poster’s figure of 28,284 after the square root.
Statistical significance:
As np is large, you can use the normal distribution z-values to approximate binomial. So, if you got under 500-22(2) or over 500+22(2) royals, then okay, “you’re significant” which means you hit the unlucky 2.5% or lucky 2.5%. Given this is gambling and the machine should have constant probabilities, I guess that would be luck.
I’m not sure if anyone is concerned about this? But the analysis is straight forward - take average of all your hand payouts and compare it to Normal (0, std. err. = 1.5/1000)
Same thing as the previous but it’s Normal (0, s.d. = 28284). So if you’re down 28284(2)=$56k or up that amount, you’re statistically “unlucky” or “lucky.”
Bottom line: Sums much more variant than averages. The significance depends on the “long term” or “short term” and that was modeled with the “n” which then contributes to the variance. Long term didn’t matter much for question #3, but it did for question #1. For question #2, it mattered very little.
So, yes, I think this is long-term enough. But, of course we ignored all sorts of things like cash back and the exact distribution of video poker, although only independence of outcomes of sequential games was usually sufficient. Although the answer to #3 may seem not bad for that amount of money, you’re going to get tanked if that EV goes below 0 by the number of times you play. The cash-back is a constant, so it just adds to the expectations in # 2 (per hand) and #3 (per hand times number of hands), it changes the location of the distribution. It is irrelevant to the first question obviously.
The distribution for Question 3 is really why the casinos win against most people. They can stand the swings in variance and you can’t. So play wisely or play for fun…
All else equal, I would say the 200k units ahead surely is statistically significant (a p-value very close to 0 for #3) to a point where the game itself could be in suspicious - - - and this suspicion is attributed mostly to the smart plays of positive EV and cash-back, unless there was a faulty machine.
What do you mean by the “long term?”
I hope I’ve done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I’ll be corrected if not:
Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They’ve played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They’re 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn’t statistically significant, what is?
RWS wrote:
—In vpf…@…com, <007@…> wrote:
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term either.
From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
per year.
Jean
$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
You can read my blog
at
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
Flush!
How
is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
that on this site.
Where do you get odds of 1 in 77,968,800 for a sequential royal flush? Not knowing exactly what game you were playing, let’s say the probability of a royal flush is 1 in 40,000. The probability that given a royal flush, it is sequential, is 1 in 60 (assuming that either A/K/Q/J/10 or 10/J/Q/K/A counts). Multiply the 2 numbers, and you get 1 in 2.4 million.
The 1/60 value assumes that you are not doing anything differently to get a sequential royal flush compared to trying to get any royal flush. I’m not clear if the jackpot required a sequential royal flush, or if it was for any royal flush. If it was only for a sequential, there would probably be some strategy adjustments if you had 2 or more royal flush cards in the right positions, so that might increase the chances slightly that a royal flush will be sequential.
If the progressive is for any royal flush, with a jackpot that high (I’m assuming your nickel machine required only 5 nickels for the jackpot of $545.15, which is over 2.7x the normal payout), you would probably be making major adjustments to your strategy in order to maximize EV, and these adjustments would increase the probability of a royal flush. For example, you would most likely always keep a high pair over 3 to a royal flush. In that case, your chances of getting a royal flush (including sequential royal flushes) would improve somewhat.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
Odds in the original post were for a DEALT sequential royal flush, ordered A-T
Where do you get odds of 1 in 77,968,800 for a sequential royal flush? Not knowing exactly what game you were playing, let’s say the probability of a royal flush is 1 in 40,000. The probability that given a royal flush, it is sequential, is 1 in 60 (assuming that either A/K/Q/J/10 or 10/J/Q/K/A counts). Multiply the 2 numbers, and you get 1 in 2.4 million.
The 1/60 value assumes that you are not doing anything differently to get a sequential royal flush compared to trying to get any royal flush. I’m not clear if the jackpot required a sequential royal flush, or if it was for any royal flush. If it was only for a sequential, there would probably be some strategy adjustments if you had 2 or more royal flush cards in the right positions, so that might increase the chances slightly that a royal flush will be sequential.
If the progressive is for any royal flush, with a jackpot that high (I’m assuming your nickel machine required only 5 nickels for the jackpot of $545.15, which is over 2.7x the normal payout), you would probably be making major adjustments to your strategy in order to maximize EV, and these adjustments would increase the probability of a royal flush. For example, you would most likely always keep a high pair over 3 to a royal flush. In that case, your chances of getting a royal flush (including sequential royal flushes) would improve somewhat.
—In vpF…@…com, <alan3262@…> wrote:
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote:
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
A million dollars in the bank after 25 years is statistical significant enough for me. But that’s just me – I was an English major, not a math major.
An uncharacteristically immodest reply by Jean. She must have been pretty provoked!
—In vpF…@…com, <queenofcomps@…> wrote:
A million dollars in the bank after 25 years is statistical significant enough for me. But that’s just me – I was an English major, not a math major.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2013 3:30 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: [SPAM]Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn’t address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don’t understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It’s very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn’t approach the long term e
From:
Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@…>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K per year.
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
From: RWS
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
To: vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
How is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain that on this site.
Thanks for the correction, I need to pay more attention to what I’m reading. That is pretty amazing.
Odds in the original post were for a DEALT sequential royal flush, ordered A-T
—In vpf…@…com, <harry.porter@…> wrote:
—In vpF…@…com, <alan3262@…> wrote:
Where do you get odds of 1 in 77,968,800 for a sequential royal flush? Not knowing exactly what game you were playing, let’s say the probability of a royal flush is 1 in 40,000. The probability that given a royal flush, it is sequential, is 1 in 60 (assuming that either A/K/Q/J/10 or 10/J/Q/K/A counts). Multiply the 2 numbers, and you get 1 in 2.4 million.
The 1/60 value assumes that you are not doing anything differently to get a sequential royal flush compared to trying to get any royal flush. I’m not clear if the jackpot required a sequential royal flush, or if it was for any royal flush. If it was only for a sequential, there would probably be some strategy adjustments if you had 2 or more royal flush cards in the right positions, so that might increase the chances slightly that a royal flush will be sequential.
If the progressive is for any royal flush, with a jackpot that high (I’m assuming your nickel machine required only 5 nickels for the jackpot of $545.15, which is over 2.7x the normal payout), you would probably be making major adjustments to your strategy in order to maximize EV, and these adjustments would increase the probability of a royal flush. For example, you would most likely always keep a high pair over 3 to a royal flush. In that case, your chances of getting a royal flush (including sequential royal flushes) would improve somewhat.
Too bad it was only in nickels! However it was a Progressive with 3x points .5% slot club. The EV was 100.3% today, that is why I was playing it. Dealt AKQJ10 hearts.
This is the one of the only 100+% opportunities in Deadwood, SD. Odds are 77,968,800 to one. But you already knew that!
Truly a once in a lifetime event for me, I am sure.
—In vpf…@…com, <neocacher@…> wrote: