Help from you more mathematically inclined would be appreciated. I
have read Jazbo and Wizard of Odds, but cannot completely put in to
numbers what I am trying to learn. I am hoping that someone could
take the time to help me by using more/simpler examples or different
words to get a handle on this.
To help you find the references, here are the URLs
http://www.jazbo.com/ on the left side click N-play Bank Roll
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/vidpokapx3.html
I want to compare expected variation of playing five line multiple
play versus single line where the total amount per push of the deal
button is equal. I will use as examples single line at $0.25/credit
= $1.25 per push of the deal button compared to five line
$0.05/credit also equals $1.25 per push of the deal button when each
are played at full coin per line. I further realize that the
concepts could be applied to higher dollar values or different
number of lines.
Not sure how to do different number of lines (5 line is tabulated by
Wizard of Odds) as that is part of the problem I am having in
understanding the two references above. Explanations here would
also be appreciated
I will use FPDW as the example as both Jazbo and Wizard of Odds
covers it in there pages referenced above. However, I would prefer
that the analysis be done on NSUD as that is available to me, but
the reference data is not available to me. Again, if someone could
also teach me how to do NSUD, that would also be appreciated.
This is what I think I know so far:
If I play an infinite number of sessions of 4900 hands/session of
one line FPDW, then I think I understand that I can expect each
session to produce on average a win (over the long term) of 0.00765
betting units (100.765 expected return) = .00765 *$1.25 * 4900 =
$46.86 per session
The standard deviation of the distribution of infinite sessions of
4900 would be sqrt (4900 * 25.835) = 355.8 betting units * $1.25 per
betting unit = $444.74 std dev in dollars.
Then assuming normal distribution (and I know that this is not
completely agreed upon), 67% of all sessions would fall within
plus/minus one std dev; 95% within +/-two std dev; and 99+% would
fall within +/- three std dev from the expected results of $46.86.
Am I correct so far?
Ok, now what if I played $1.25 per push of the deal button using
$0.05 per credit on five lines at full coin?
I assume that infinite sessions of 4900 deals of five line would
also have a distribution with mean or expected results of $46.86
per long term session and a std dev of ???
What would be the std dev of sessions of 4900 pushes of five line?
Just to make sure that I am getting my point across, this would be a
total of 4900 pushes * 5 lines/push = 24,500 hands of vp, However
I would have put the same amount of money at risk as in the single
line example of above.
Swings in session outcome putting the same amount of money at risk
($6125 each session in this example) is what I am trying to
evaluate. I realize that multiple line will probably play slower
than single line, but so be it.
If you prefer to e-mail me privately, that would be fine, but I
think others would be interested also, and some are probably just as
math challenged as me.
Please point out any wrong computations or assumptions.
DWK
