vpFREE2 Forums

Reality Check

#1

Hi all,
I had an interesting chat with a gentleman playing video poker next to me at one of the
bars at Mohegan Sun (an Indian run casino in Connecticut) last week. Now granted, he
was a bit inebriated, but he seemed quite educated and intelligent. He also mentioned he
lived nearby and was a "regular". After playing for about 30 minutes, he leaned over and
said, "Of course, you know they tightened up these machines about 6 months ago. Not just
these machines, but all the machines." I suppose I gave him a rather dubious look and so
he added, "Oh, it's not just me saying that. Everyone is talking about it. You used to have a
shot at winning but now these machines will just suck you dry."

I wanted to be able to just chalk this up to this player's paranoia combined with his
imbibing a few too many. But I must say that the fact that in the past 6 months of playing
at Mohegan Sun, I have had 5 winning sessions out of 26 and in the six months prior to
that at Mohegan Sun, I had 16 winning sessions out of 31 certainly seemed to lend some
credibility to this theory. I know there are ups and downs in the game but the fact that my
percentage of winning sessions went from 52% in the previous six months to 19% in the
most recent six months seems very strange, especially when you consider I was playing
the same game, 9/6 Jacks or Better. And my accuracy rate has even improved during these
past 6 months, always at least 99.7 or 99.8% when I practice on my tutorial software. And
I play with even more care and accuracy when I am playing at the casino.

So my question is this. Is it possible for casinos to alter the machines in such a way that
they have fewer payouts, without changing the paytables? Just to be clear, I am not asking
if it seems likely. I am sure there are many reasons why it would seem unlikely. I simply
want to know if it is POSSIBLE.

Thank you!

Cathy B.

#2

Hi all,
I had an interesting chat with a gentleman playing video poker next to me at one of the
bars at Mohegan Sun (an Indian run casino in Connecticut) last week. Now granted, he
was a bit inebriated, but he seemed quite educated and intelligent. He also mentioned he
lived nearby and was a "regular". After playing for about 30 minutes, he leaned over and
said, "Of course, you know they tightened up these machines about 6 months ago. >

I have had great results this year at MS. I had a 7 week win streak, with very few loosing sessons so far. I go to MS once a week on a bus charter. Play mostly quarter pick-em..some dollar 9/6 Jacks & pick-em. I was lucky enough to get two pick-em royals, within 3 sessions, about 5000 hands apart! A picture of one of them is posted on VP free. Having a great year at MS.

Perkkys

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "Cathy" <kitchat123@aol.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, June 23, 2008 4:43 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Reality Check

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

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#3

So my question is this. Is it possible for casinos to alter the

machines in such a way that

they have fewer payouts, without changing the paytables? Just to be

clear, I am not asking

if it seems likely. I am sure there are many reasons why it would

seem unlikely. I simply

want to know if it is POSSIBLE.

They can, by using an unauthorized or unapproved eprom (aka "chip").
I'm equally sure such a scenario is unlikely.

Sometimes machines can run hot or cold for months (ok, appear to run
hot or cold). They're just like players in that sense statistically.

MHS, BTW was one of my all time favorite places to play.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cathy" <kitchat123@...> wrote:

#4

( about 'tight' machines at Mohegan Sun)

But I must say that the fact that in the past 6 months of playing

at Mohegan Sun, I have had 5 winning sessions out of 26 and in the

six months prior to

that at Mohegan Sun, I had 16 winning sessions out of 31 certainly

seemed to lend some

credibility to this theory. I know there are ups and downs in the

game but the fact that my

percentage of winning sessions went from 52% in the previous six

months to 19% in the

most recent six months seems very strange, especially when you

consider I was playing

the same game, 9/6 Jacks or Better. And my accuracy rate has even

improved during these

past 6 months, always at least 99.7 or 99.8% when I practice on my

tutorial software. And

I play with even more care and accuracy when I am playing at the

casino.

Cathy, before you can draw any conclusions from your results, we need
a little more information. Specifically, how long is a session? How
many sessions were played? Once you have that info, you might be able
to say something about your results.

Let's say you play a 2 hour session at 750 hands per hour. I'll use
99.8% as your accuracy and won't count cash back in your session
total. Using Dunbar's program, you will show a loss on about 70% of
your sessions. That's quite a bit. So, your 50% win was way above
average and your 19% win was well below average. Add them together
and you are at 34.5% win rate, which is pretty close to expected.

If you take a small sample from a large distribution, you will see
some unusual results in a highly skewed game like video poker.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cathy" <kitchat123@...> wrote:

#5

Cathy,

While it is definitely possible, the probability is extremely close to 0 if not 0. The reason is that Mohegan Sun is huge, and unbelievably profitable. Without cheating. Even very, very stupid people would not risk losing all that for a very, very small amount of cheating money. In fact, if they eliminated the possibility of getting a royal on the 9/6 machines the additional income to them wouldn't even show up as round-off error on their financial statements. Anything less than $1,000,000 is meaningless noise to them.

And, as I've noted before, they are regulated.

The cheating incidents in the past were by small fry. There may be similar things going on with little guys where a couple of thousand dollars is meaningful. But not Mohegan Sun. They have over 6000 machines. If they did gaffe them they would need a lot of programmers and technicians to keep their mouths shut. RIDICULOUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

···

At 01:43 AM 6/23/2008, you wrote:

Hi all,
I had an interesting chat with a gentleman playing video poker next to me at one of the
bars at Mohegan Sun (an Indian run casino in Connecticut) last week. Now granted, he
was a bit inebriated, but he seemed quite educated and intelligent. He also mentioned he
lived nearby and was a "regular". After playing for about 30 minutes, he leaned over and
said, "Of course, you know they tightened up these machines about 6 months ago. Not just
these machines, but all the machines." I suppose I gave him a rather dubious look and so
he added, "Oh, it's not just me saying that. Everyone is talking about it. You used to have a
shot at winning but now these machines will just suck you dry."

I wanted to be able to just chalk this up to this player's paranoia combined with his
imbibing a few too many. But I must say that the fact that in the past 6 months of playing
at Mohegan Sun, I have had 5 winning sessions out of 26 and in the six months prior to
that at Mohegan Sun, I had 16 winning sessions out of 31 certainly seemed to lend some
credibility to this theory. I know there are ups and downs in the game but the fact that my
percentage of winning sessions went from 52% in the previous six months to 19% in the
most recent six months seems very strange, especially when you consider I was playing
the same game, 9/6 Jacks or Better. And my accuracy rate has even improved during these
past 6 months, always at least 99.7 or 99.8% when I practice on my tutorial software. And
I play with even more care and accuracy when I am playing at the casino.

So my question is this. Is it possible for casinos to alter the machines in such a way that
they have fewer payouts, without changing the paytables? Just to be clear, I am not asking
if it seems likely. I am sure there are many reasons why it would seem unlikely. I simply
want to know if it is POSSIBLE.

Thank you!

Cathy B.

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#6

Hi all,
I had an interesting chat with a gentleman playing video poker next

to me at one of the

bars at Mohegan Sun (an Indian run casino in Connecticut) last

week. Now granted, he

was a bit inebriated, but he seemed quite educated and intelligent.

He also mentioned he

lived nearby and was a "regular". After playing for about 30

minutes, he leaned over and

said, "Of course, you know they tightened up these machines about 6

months ago. Not just

these machines, but all the machines." I suppose I gave him a

rather dubious look and so

he added, "Oh, it's not just me saying that. Everyone is talking

about it. You used to have a

shot at winning but now these machines will just suck you dry."

Did you ask him, "If you're so convinced the machines are gaffed then
why are YOU playing them?" :wink:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cathy" <kitchat123@...> wrote:

#7

Indian Casinos can do anything they darn well please. The ones here are very, very tight and getting to be very empty also.

Cathy <kitchat123@aol.com> wrote: Hi all,
I had an interesting chat with a gentleman playing video poker next to me at one of the
bars at Mohegan Sun (an Indian run casino in Connecticut) last week. Now granted, he
was a bit inebriated, but he seemed quite educated and intelligent. He also mentioned he
lived nearby and was a "regular". After playing for about 30 minutes, he leaned over and
said, "Of course, you know they tightened up these machines about 6 months ago. Not just
these machines, but all the machines." I suppose I gave him a rather dubious look and so
he added, "Oh, it's not just me saying that. Everyone is talking about it. You used to have a
shot at winning but now these machines will just suck you dry."

I wanted to be able to just chalk this up to this player's paranoia combined with his
imbibing a few too many. But I must say that the fact that in the past 6 months of playing
at Mohegan Sun, I have had 5 winning sessions out of 26 and in the six months prior to
that at Mohegan Sun, I had 16 winning sessions out of 31 certainly seemed to lend some
credibility to this theory. I know there are ups and downs in the game but the fact that my
percentage of winning sessions went from 52% in the previous six months to 19% in the
most recent six months seems very strange, especially when you consider I was playing
the same game, 9/6 Jacks or Better. And my accuracy rate has even improved during these
past 6 months, always at least 99.7 or 99.8% when I practice on my tutorial software. And
I play with even more care and accuracy when I am playing at the casino.

So my question is this. Is it possible for casinos to alter the machines in such a way that
they have fewer payouts, without changing the paytables? Just to be clear, I am not asking
if it seems likely. I am sure there are many reasons why it would seem unlikely. I simply
want to know if it is POSSIBLE.

Thank you!

Cathy B.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Hi everyone,
Thank you for the responses. Very helpful.

I guess now that I understand it IS possible to reduce the number of payouts on a machine
without changing the paytables, I am wondering why it would be considered illegal for them
to do so? It's not like there is a sign on the wall that assures us that these machines are just
generating random cards. Obviously they could not completely eliminate Royals or quads or
straight flushes, but I don't see why reducing the frequency of them would be considered
illegal. But I am relieved to hear that it ISl!

Cathy B.

#9

LOL. Cute. No, actually I was trying to say as little as possible. I am not too "chatty" when I
am playing video poker for starters, especially when the person next to me is inebriated. I
tried to drop a fairly strong hint when he asked why I wasn't drinking anything. I said, "I try to
stay very focused when I am playing video poker. So whenever I play, I make it a point not to
drink - or TALK."

He seemed to take the hint and left shortly thereafter. :slight_smile:

Cathy B.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hockeystl" <vegasstl@...> wrote:

Did you ask him, "If you're so convinced the machines are gaffed then
why are YOU playing them?" :wink:

#10

"Obviously they could not completely eliminate Royals or quads or straight flushes, but I don't see why reducing the frequency of them would be considered illegal. "

It would be illegal because it violates state gaming regulations in many states.

(If this is a real concern for you, you might want to take the time to research the gaming regulations where you are playing. Many of them are available online.)

http://search.live.com/cashback/?&pkw=form=MIJAAF/publ=HMTGL/crea=earncashback

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

More than violating state regulations there are also Federal regulations for Indian casinos. While Tribes often self-regulate (which is not the fox guarding the hen house as many people assume) they are also subject to regulations required by contract with their states and by the Federal regulatory commission.

Many people think that they can do anything they want. They CANNOT.

···

At 11:05 PM 6/23/2008, you wrote:

Hi everyone,
Thank you for the responses. Very helpful.

I guess now that I understand it IS possible to reduce the number of payouts on a machine
without changing the paytables, I am wondering why it would be considered illegal for them
to do so? It's not like there is a sign on the wall that assures us that these machines are just
generating random cards. Obviously they could not completely eliminate Royals or quads or
straight flushes, but I don't see why reducing the frequency of them would be considered
illegal. But I am relieved to hear that it ISl!

Cathy B.

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#12

kelso 1600 wrote:

"Obviously they could not completely eliminate Royals or quads or straight flushes, but I don't see why reducing the frequency of them would be considered illegal. "

It would be illegal because it violates state gaming regulations in many states.

(If this is a real concern for you, you might want to take the time to research the gaming regulations where you are playing. Many of them are available online.)
-------
Which states regulate gambling in Indian casinos in the same sense that, say, Nevada and New Jersey do?

And, as often noted here, it should be a definite concern for anyone gambling, or spending their money in any such fashion, what the regulations are. The sad fact is that many of the detailed regulations are not available. Just look at how many discussions have been posted here about relatively upfront jurisdictions like Nevada and New Jersey over chips, returns, changes and other questions about integrity. No to mention that there is virtually no public auditing, even in states with so-called detailed compacts.

#13

I did a little research last night, and I wasn't feeling too warm or fuzzy when I discovered
Mohegan Sun's gaming commission reports to their Tribal Council. Self-regulation = no
regulation as far as I am concerned.

I also read, with interest, about how back in 1997 Connecticut's top gambling regulator,
the Executive Director of the Division of Special Revenue, accepted a job as the executive
director of the gaming commission for Foxwoods. Apparently top regulators are normally
banned from taking a job with a gambling operation business for one year but this was
allowed due to a loophole, the loophole being that his new employer, the Mashantucket
Pequot Gaming Commission, should not be considered a business, but an agency in the
government of a tribal nation.

I will limit my play at these facilities to quarter play only in the future and on a much less
frequent basis. Maybe everything is above board, maybe it isn't. Since there are no neutral
parties doing the regulating, I guess no one knows for sure!

Cathy B.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, MHS <mspevack@...> wrote:

And, as often noted here, it should be a definite concern for anyone
gambling, or spending their money in any such fashion, what the
regulations are. The sad fact is that many of the detailed regulations
are not available.

#14

You are wrong. The National Indian Gaming Commission is the Federal regulatory body. If you are too paranoid to play, don't. But gaming

···

at the 2 Connecticut properties is absolutely safe and above board. At 10:58 AM 6/24/2008, you wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, MHS <mspevack@...> wrote:

> And, as often noted here, it should be a definite concern for anyone
> gambling, or spending their money in any such fashion, what the
> regulations are. The sad fact is that many of the detailed regulations
> are not available.

I did a little research last night, and I wasn't feeling too warm or fuzzy when I discovered
Mohegan Sun's gaming commission reports to their Tribal Council. Self-regulation = no
regulation as far as I am concerned.

I also read, with interest, about how back in 1997 Connecticut's top gambling regulator,
the Executive Director of the Division of Special Revenue, accepted a job as the executive
director of the gaming commission for Foxwoods. Apparently top regulators are normally
banned from taking a job with a gambling operation business for one year but this was
allowed due to a loophole, the loophole being that his new employer, the Mashantucket
Pequot Gaming Commission, should not be considered a business, but an agency in the
government of a tribal nation.

I will limit my play at these facilities to quarter play only in the future and on a much less
frequent basis. Maybe everything is above board, maybe it isn't. Since there are no neutral
parties doing the regulating, I guess no one knows for sure!

Cathy B.

------------------------------------

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#15

I'll offer up my 2 cents, in the way of a "reality check":

We're largely shooting in the dark when speculating on the degree to
which we can take confidence that the machines are fair.

I like to take for granted that the authorities in NV/NJ have a strong
vested interest in fair gaming and are very likely to employ rigorous
methods to ensure that nothing shoddy slips in. And I to assume that
casino profitability is such an assured thing that no legitimate
casino would ever toss in a few rogue machines into the mix in order
to rake in a few extra dollars, risking a very lucrative gaming license.

Frankly, as I see things generally play out in casinos, I have to
imagine that there are more than a few cracks through which oversight
might lapse. Still, in the big picture, I'm quite confident in making
an assumption of fair gaming.

When it comes to smaller jurisdictions (CT, LA, MI, IL, DE, CA, etc.)
that confidence slips a little -- at least where regulatory oversight
is concerned. However, I take comfort that the mainstream machine
manufacturers have strong incentive to employ rigid security measures
that make tampering/gaffing extraordinarily unlikely. (I'd be shy
playing any make that doesn't have a strong presence in NV.)

As far as Indian gaming goes, my confidence lies strictly in the
equipment. And I'd be somewhat loathe to even play older IGT equipment.

But however you cut it, the only real assurance one has is their own
faith in the gaming. Speaking for myself, once I make the decision to
play in a jurisdiction, I set any doubts completely aside. Lacking
certainty, to do anything else is a fool's errand. (When you
subsequently suffer a large loss or a sustained regular losses, any
such doubt will be magnified.)

If I retain the slightest doubt about fairness somewhere (say, to the
extent that I'm going to air it to someone else), I'm not going to
play (or else consider myself a fool).

- Harry

#16

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

I like to take for granted that the authorities in NV/NJ have a

strong vested interest in fair gaming and are very likely to employ
rigorous methods to ensure that nothing shoddy slips in.

Harry, just because it makes sense doesn't mean it will happen. The
authorities have a vested interest in making sure casinos make money.
That is their main interest.

Getting any meaningful information out of a casino is very, very
difficult.

Let's say Casino A decided increase revenues on their 9/6 JOB. To do
so, diamond straight flushes, quad 7 - 9s are programmed out. The
casino now holds an additional 1.625% on this game. Not a fortune but
it would also be hard to detect at the player level. It would take a
LOT of very good record keeping and a huge sample size before you
could prove this.

Even if I have a suspicion something is up, what do I do? Call up
gaming and tell them I have been losing an extra 1.6% on JOB and I
think the game is rigged? I don't think they would jump right out and
investigate.

Once again, I am not saying I think machines are rigged but I don't
consider the argument that casinos have too much to lose as the end
of the discussion.

My guess is the LV GCB is cutting back on staff just like everyone
else.

#17

johnnyzee48127 wrote:

Harry, just because it makes sense doesn't mean it will happen. The
authorities have a vested interest in making sure casinos make money.
That is their main interest.

Getting any meaningful information out of a casino is very, very
difficult ...

Once again, I am not saying I think machines are rigged but I don't
consider the argument that casinos have too much to lose as the end
of the discussion.

Without mincing words, it was my intent to convey that bottom line it
all comes down to accepting that games are fair ... the player has no
substantive means by which to make a definite assessment.

- H.

#18

Yes, this is the type of scenario I am wondering about, where the casino management
might make a decision to increase revenue by reprogramming the machines. I wasn't as
concerned with a rogue employee tampering with a machine here and there.

I wonder if there is any law in the case of Indian casinos that would make this an illegal
act? In the case of a casino like Mohegan Sun where the Gaming Commission reports to
the Tribal Council, for all we know the Tribal Council could set the standards for what the
Gaming Commission is supposed to consider as acceptable or unacceptable. And I doubt
those standards would be a matter of public record.

Cathy B.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

Let's say Casino A decided increase revenues on their 9/6 JOB. To do
so, diamond straight flushes, quad 7 - 9s are programmed out. The
casino now holds an additional 1.625% on this game. Not a fortune but
it would also be hard to detect at the player level. It would take a
LOT of very good record keeping and a huge sample size before you
could prove this.

#19

If you people are afraid that someone is trying to cheat you of a tiny amount of money, DON"T PLAY!

But don't pass a bunch of ignorance as information.

Conn. casinos are regulated by:
         1. The Federal govt.
         2. The Conn Department of Revenue
         3. The Tribal Govt (don't scoff, self-regulation can be effective).
         4. Indirectly, the SEC (Tribal financial statements are publicly filed and retrievable).

I won't repeat the arguments why it is inconceivable that the 2 largest casinos in the WORLD would want to cheat. They certainly don't NEED to (see their SEC reports).

To change the programming, you would need a number of people involved. It is well known that 3 people can't keep a secret. It would certainly get out.

Moderator, please move this foolish discussion off vpFREE. Newbies might actually believe that the industry cheats.

···

At 12:41 PM 6/25/2008, you wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:
>

> Let's say Casino A decided increase revenues on their 9/6 JOB. To do
> so, diamond straight flushes, quad 7 - 9s are programmed out. The
> casino now holds an additional 1.625% on this game. Not a fortune but
> it would also be hard to detect at the player level. It would take a
> LOT of very good record keeping and a huge sample size before you
> could prove this.
>
Yes, this is the type of scenario I am wondering about, where the casino management
might make a decision to increase revenue by reprogramming the machines. I wasn't as
concerned with a rogue employee tampering with a machine here and there.

I wonder if there is any law in the case of Indian casinos that would make this an illegal
act? In the case of a casino like Mohegan Sun where the Gaming Commission reports to
the Tribal Council, for all we know the Tribal Council could set the standards for what the
Gaming Commission is supposed to consider as acceptable or unacceptable. And I doubt
those standards would be a matter of public record.

Cathy B.

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#20

If you people are afraid that someone is trying to cheat you of a
tiny amount of money, DON"T PLAY!

I usually play 4 or 5 sessions a month at Mohegan Sun. Since my win rate has dropped to
19% over the past 6 months, that means I usually leave about $2,000 there each month. I
do not consider that a tiny amount of money and I think anyone would be foolish NOT to
have a healthy amount of curiosity about the matter in this case.

I won't repeat the arguments why it is inconceivable that the 2
largest casinos in the WORLD would want to cheat. They certainly
don't NEED to (see their SEC reports).

I don't know about Foxwoods, but back in February, The Mohegan Sun casino said its slot
revenues plunged almost 10%in December, devastated by a free-play promotion at rival
Foxwoods. Mohegan Sun saw first quarter income fall more than 23%, down almost $17
million. The biggest impact was to the casino's slot revenues, which were down 9%. So I
would not be too surprised if some kind of "corrective action" might be taken.

And I am not suggesting they are "cheating". I am merely trying to understand if it would
be considered legal to alter the payouts, since it seems they make the rules and govern
themselves.

Cathy B.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bill Coleman <vphobby2@...> wrote: