vpFREE2 Forums

Pep Talk needed - please help!

#1

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months of
playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well), I
decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps substantially
and get all of the perks that the "high rollers" who play $1 VP
receive. Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with
extensive hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!! Luckily, I have
the bankroll to support big downswings, but I am over 5 royals behind
expectation with the amount of hours that my wife and I have put in.
It's getting to the point where we bring 3K down to the casino each
weekend and we feel like it's just going straight into the fireplace!

I know that there are many higher-stakes players than me on these
boards, and I'm sure that people have experienced way worse
downswings than this, so I just wanted to know if someone else could
share their horror stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a pep talk
for the rest of us. I'm quite sure that I'm not the only one on
these boards who would benefit greatly from the wisdom of the higher
stakes players and the trials and tribulations that they have been
through. I hear about pros who play $5 VP, and I can't even imagine
the nerves of steel that these people must have.

Thanks in advance,

John

#2

john_chinnock wrote:

so I just wanted to know if someone else could share their horror
stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a pep talk for the rest of
us.

John, I write here not from a "higher stakes" perspective, but rather
comparable stakes to what you've been playing.

Truth is, you're unlikely to benefit from anyone's "horror stories"
more than those of your own that you've related here. And, to be
blunt, there's no pep talk that's worth a dime on this topic.

You're like me (and likely most others around here) in playing as
"recreational players" ... in other words, we play because we enjoy
the play, but we're definitely motivated by the comp opportunities.

The critical thing is to have a good grip on the realities of this
type of play because, while the theo may be only slightly negative at
worst, the downside risk is tremendous. That's a simple fact that
gets glossed over far too much and I suspect that the greater number
of players only come to terms with it after they're crying in their
beer over what has passed into casino coffers.

···

------

One of these days I expect to hear a version of the "3 greatest lies"
joke which ends with the punchline, "You need a bankroll of 3 to 5
royals to play vp".

Every time a see this statement without a very careful qualification
of the underlying assumption -- namely that you're playing a near 1%
positive opportunity -- I'm ready to punch someone in the mouth.

Under the best $1 play opportunities likely to be found somewhere like
AC, a bankroll of 7 to 8 royals is more apt. And, in truth, when the
play actually doesn't manage an ER any better than within a hair's
breadth from breakeven, there is no such thing as a "prudent" bankroll.

Near breakeven play is a bottomless cup loss prospect. Just as with
flipping a coin, where if you flip long enough there's no end to the
string of heads you might expect, vp ultimately involves an
expectation of a royal drought of terrifying proportions.

The key to "positive" play isn't so much that you have a profit
expectation. It's that you consistently build a cushion against that
trip through hell that's likely to be travelled at some point or
another. Take that positive insurance away and you better be prepared
for the risk you've undertaken.

------

I'm not trying to kick a guy when he's down, John. But the best that
can be said here is that I feel your pain.

You know from your $.25 play how good it can get. And when you
restrict your play to strong ER, modest volatility, and the best
peripheral opportunities, the odds can get stacked nicely in your favor.

But the downside risk is far more important to me than the upside and
it can't be dismissed or made light of. The only intelligent way to
approach play is to have a very solid sense of what your true bankroll
is and a determination to walk from the game if you exhaust it.

- Harry

#3

I know that there are many higher-stakes players than me on these
boards, and I'm sure that people have experienced way worse
downswings than this, so I just wanted to know if someone else

could

share their horror stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a pep

talk

for the rest of us.

First, I'm not a higher-stake player, but I'm in the middle of my own
Royal drought, so I can relate. The jump to dollars can be
unnerving. One thing I would suggest is to drop down to $.50.
You'll get increased comps and cashback over quarters but you'll also
have more staying power than with dollars. Look for multi-denom
machines with the better games.

I know many of these posts sound like ads, but it would help to
reread the VP chapter in "More Frugal Gambling," especially the last
section, Knowing What To Expect. Many of us have had success in
playing VP early on and are shaken by long periods of nothing. It's
hard not to be, but for now I'll keep plugging away. Who knows, I
might even reread some of that stuff about penalty cards!!

Finally, VP has to remain fun for me to stay in the game. It would
stop being fun for me if I was down the value of 5 royals at any
denomination. That's my limit; everyone else will have a different
threshold.

Drew

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

#4

John: I know this is the opposite of the Pep Talk you asked for, but here's my advice:

Quit.

One can make all sorts of mathematical and logcial reasons to keep on trying, but the last sentence of the first paragraph in your post (see below) says it all. You ARE NO LONGER ENJOYING playing. You cannot argue with your emotions, and the game has you both terrified and depressed (and rightly so). At this point, you're like the victim of a shark attack trying to get up the nerve to go swimming. You can talk yourself into getting back in the water, but you can't talk yourself into enjoying it.

John

john_chinnock wrote:

···

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months of playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well), I decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps substantially and get all of the perks that the "high rollers" who play $1 VP receive. Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with extensive hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!! Luckily, I have the bankroll to support big downswings, but I am over 5 royals behind expectation with the amount of hours that my wife and I have put in. It's getting to the point where we bring 3K down to the casino each weekend and we feel like it's just going straight into the fireplace!

I know that there are many higher-stakes players than me on these boards, and I'm sure that people have experienced way worse downswings than this, so I just wanted to know if someone else could share their horror stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a pep talk for the rest of us. I'm quite sure that I'm not the only one on these boards who would benefit greatly from the wisdom of the higher stakes players and the trials and tribulations that they have been through. I hear about pros who play $5 VP, and I can't even imagine the nerves of steel that these people must have.

#5

substantially

9/6?
no cashback?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months of
playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well), I
decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps

#6

my advice is return to quarters for awhile. The goal is to have fun.

···

---------------------------------
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#7

What is the purpose of your play? Are you trying to have fun, make
money, or get lots of perks? You can't always get it all. I bumped
up to the $1 and after one bad session, I decided to drop back to the
quarters. I find I am having more fun, and enjoy the play more than
when I was uncomfortable at the higher stakes. Forget all the perks
and better comps. If you can afford to lose $20,000, you can afford
to pay for your own meals.

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months of
playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well), I
decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps

substantially

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

and get all of the perks that the "high rollers" who play $1 VP
receive. Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with
extensive hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!!

#8

-- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote

The critical thing is to have a good grip on the realities of this
type of play because, while the theo may be only slightly negative

at

worst, the downside risk is tremendous. That's a simple fact that
gets glossed over far too much and I suspect that the greater

number

of players only come to terms with it after they're crying in their
beer over what has passed into casino coffers.
           ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But the downside risk is far more important to me than the upside and

it can't be dismissed or made light of. The only intelligent way

to

approach play is to have a very solid sense of what your true

bankroll

···

is and a determination to walk from the game if you exhaust it.

- Harry

==================================================================

As usual, friend Harry (and I DO feel that he's a friend after
reading his posts) has the most commonsense and succinct advice
for our currently hardluck forum member.
I would only add that if playing $1.00 denom. is no longer fun and
profitable, drop back down in class to .50 or even .25. Why play
$1.00 to receive comps (which you will receive anyway at the lower
denoms) and risk losing 10 times over the comp value? Makes no sense
whatever to me.
From personal experience I can tell you that, no matter how well I
do at quarters, as soon as I get cocky and play dollars, I lose my
rearend. Therefore, playing dollars no longer tempts me in the
least. While I would have difficulty getting excited about nickles,
I can still raise a sweat when I come in with pieces of the RF at
quarters. And, by the way, I get as many room nights and meals
comped as I can possibly use. I might not be staying at Bellagio,
but then, I like to play FPVP, and they have NONE there.
Good luck to you in future, get those Royals you've been missing,
and above all, if you are not Pro, enjoy playing!
Babe

#9

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months

of playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well),

You realize, of course, that you should have lost then as well, if
as you say, your play consisted of primarily JOB? And that being
ahead (at all) after 18 months of playing a 99.5% return game is
actually LESS likely than what has happened to you recently?

I decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps
substantially and get all of the perks that the "high rollers" who
play $1 VP receive.

A good strategy, if you shop the games and the casinos regularly,
and restrict your play to those places that offer good
cashback/comps.

Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with extensive
hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!! Luckily, I have

the bankroll to support big downswings, but I am over 5 royals

behind expectation with the amount of hours that my wife and I have
put in.

Are you playing breakeven games? Or are you still playing JOB? Also,
are you factoring in earned cashback and comps into that -20K figure?
  

It's getting to the point where we bring 3K down to the casino each
weekend and we feel like it's just going straight into the

fireplace!

OK, hold it. We now have to ask the question of why you're doing
this in the first place. I sense that is has ceased to be fun, and
that the cumulative losses are starting to be burdensome. I can
relate: I switched to dollars a couple of years ago while there were
still such things as fullpay Joker and FPDW available. Playing at a
theoretical return of 100.7%, I managed to LOSE $35,000 in six
months. The cash loss was actually more like $50K, but of course I
factor back cashback, and comps (at 80% of face value; just my
formula). I hit TWO royals in eight royal cycles.

Now, I had two plus $11K months directly after that, but am just
puttering along at slightly better than breakeven since then. So
my "overall" result isn't much better than yours when compared to
what "SHOULD" have happened.

I'd say, either wipe the slate clean, mentally start over, and
consider dropping back to quarters, or quit playing altogether.
Don't forget that .25 FPDW actually returns MORE profit than $1 DB,
so if rebuilding your bankroll is a priority, you can drop down to
the .25 level and start grinding away. ALso, it's a REALLY bad day
when you lose $500 on .25 VP of any kind; you're NOT going to tank
that whole $3K weekend stake if you stick to quarters.

I know that there are many higher-stakes players than me on these
boards, and I'm sure that people have experienced way worse
downswings than this, so I just wanted to know if someone else

could share their horror stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a
pep talk for the rest of us. I'm quite sure that I'm not the only
one on these boards who would benefit greatly from the wisdom of the
higher stakes players and the trials and tribulations that they have
been through. I hear about pros who play $5 VP, and I can't even
imagine the nerves of steel that these people must have.

People tend to play somewhat over their heads, at whatever level
this results in: such that a royal feels reallly good and twenty
hours without one and minus 800 bets feels reallly bad. Are you over
your head at dollars? Are you within your comfort zone to kiss
thirty Franklins goodbye over the course of a "fun-filled" gambling
weekend? It sure doesn't sound like it. I can, and did, afford to
lose that $50K, but I'll tell you, the fun factor dropped to
absolute zero by the end of that streak. I started thinking about
what ELSE I could have done with that $50 grand: buy a really nice
car, take a world cruise, buy 1000 politicians, buy a bottle of
preserved Elvis's sweat on EBay, etc. Talk about self-torture!

There's also something that I'd like to mention, that I already know
that the VP community at large heartily disagrees with, but we take
it on faith--WITHOUT VERIFICATION OF ANY KIND--that the VP machines
are 100% honest. I say "on faith" because I've NEVER seen--or heard
of for that matter--Gaming officials marching into a casino floor
unannounced and grabbing a VP machine, to have it taken back to the
lab. I know how easy it would be to, for instance, have the A's come
up slightly less often, or the 2's on a DW machine. Just a little
biasing on the part of thr "RNG" (there is no such thing as an
actual Random Number Generator) and there goes our 0.7% advantage,
poof, just like that. Just a thought...I don't like the idea of
spending $1 million bucks (that's what we dollar players shove into
the machines in a year) and not being SURE everything is on the
level.

So here's your commiseration: HA! Sucker, so you lost...get over it!
And your pep talk: Quit!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

#10

This reminds me of the incredible luck that Bob Dancer experienced
that he documents in his Million Dollar VP book. Playing $100
machines, he could easily have completed busted his bankroll instead
of getting the RF he did get (his wife actually).

Ok, this might be a corny post, but after a successful 18 months of
playing 25c video poker (primarily JOB, but some others as well), I
decided to switch over to $1 games to increase my comps

substantially

and get all of the perks that the "high rollers" who play $1 VP
receive. Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with
extensive hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!! Luckily, I have
the bankroll to support big downswings, but I am over 5 royals

behind

expectation with the amount of hours that my wife and I have put

in.

It's getting to the point where we bring 3K down to the casino each
weekend and we feel like it's just going straight into the

fireplace!

I know that there are many higher-stakes players than me on these
boards, and I'm sure that people have experienced way worse
downswings than this, so I just wanted to know if someone else

could

share their horror stories of VP past, and perhaps provide a pep

talk

for the rest of us. I'm quite sure that I'm not the only one on
these boards who would benefit greatly from the wisdom of the

higher

stakes players and the trials and tribulations that they have been
through. I hear about pros who play $5 VP, and I can't even

imagine

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

the nerves of steel that these people must have.

Thanks in advance,

John

#11

Unfortunately, after only 3 months of $1 VP play (with

extensive hours), I am stuck slightly over $20K!!! Luckily, I have
the bankroll to support big downswings,

To add insult to injury, if you get back to even next year you will
have the honor of paying income taxes on $20,000 even though you made
zilch.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john_chinnock" <chinnock@h...> wrote:

#12

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>
wrote:

There's also something that I'd like to mention, that I already

know

that the VP community at large heartily disagrees with, but we take
it on faith--WITHOUT VERIFICATION OF ANY KIND--that the VP machines
are 100% honest. I say "on faith" because I've NEVER seen--or heard
of for that matter--Gaming officials marching into a casino floor
unannounced and grabbing a VP machine, to have it taken back to the
lab.

Larry Volk?
http://tinyurl.com/4wcd7
" Volk was the American Coin Co. computer technician who said he
was ordered by the slot machine company's owners to design a program
to prevent video poker machines from paying off jackpots with maximum
coins bet. The gaff protected bar owners from being hit with large
jackpots. That is, until a control board investigation exposed the
scam in 1989 and a raid at 93 locations led to the confiscation of
more than 1,000 machines." -vegas review-journal

#13

assuming an even game, the standard deviation is square root of
(variance x number of hands), which makes it easy to generate
spreadsheet tables like this for 9/6 jacks or better:

royal hands___1sd @$5/bet____2sd @$5/bet____3sd @$5/bet
cycle
1______40391___888__$4,439___1776__$8,878___2663_$13,317
2______80782__1256__$6,278___2511_$12,556___3767_$18,833
3_____121173__1538__$7,689___3075_$15,377___4613_$23,066
4_____161564__1776__$8,878___3551_$17,756___5327_$26,634
5_____201955__1985__$9,926___3970_$19,852___5956_$29,778
6_____242346__2175_$10,873___4349_$21,747___6524_$32,620
7_____282737__2349_$11,745___4698_$23,489___7047_$35,234
8_____323128__2511_$12,556___5022_$25,111___7533_$37,667
9_____363519__2663_$13,317___5327_$26,634___7990_$39,952
10____403910__2808_$14,038___5615_$28,075___8423_$42,113

+/-1sd is 68% likely, +/-2sd is 95% likely, +/-3sd is 99.7% likely

if it's not an even game, you have to add the expected return:
(er+cashback-1) x number of hands

#14

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>

wrote

>
There's also something that I'd like to mention, that I already

know

that the VP community at large heartily disagrees with, but we

take

it on faith--WITHOUT VERIFICATION OF ANY KIND--that the VP

machines

are 100% honest. I say "on faith" because I've NEVER seen--or

heard

of for that matter--Gaming officials marching into a casino floor
unannounced and grabbing a VP machine, to have it taken back to

the

lab. I know how easy it would be to, for instance, have the A's

come

up slightly less often, or the 2's on a DW machine. Just a little
biasing on the part of thr "RNG" (there is no such thing as an
actual Random Number Generator) and there goes our 0.7% advantage,
poof, just like that. Just a thought...I don't like the idea of
spending $1 million bucks (that's what we dollar players shove

into

the machines in a year) and not being SURE everything is on the
level.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I agree with most everything you say, Rock, however what can the VP
community realistically do about this? Outside of quitting, which
most of us will never do voluntarily, what recourse do we have to
force the casinos to PROVE that the FPVP will pay off (in the long-
run, of course) according to computer generated math with which they
had NOTHING whatever to do. I think that proving that vp payoffs are
only controlled by the pay schedule, and not rigged in any way, is a
fruitless task. Anyway, thanks for an interesting post.

#15

brumar_lv wrote:

This reminds me of the incredible luck that Bob Dancer experienced
that he documents in his Million Dollar VP book.

Oh, the book cross filed in the library under "Quarter Million Dollar
VP and a Boatload of luck"?

- H.

#16

http://tinyurl.com/4wcd7
" Volk was the American Coin Co. computer technician who said

he

was ordered by the slot machine company's owners to design a

program

to prevent video poker machines from paying off jackpots with

maximum

coins bet. The gaff protected bar owners from being hit with large
jackpots. That is, until a control board investigation exposed the
scam in 1989 and a raid at 93 locations led to the confiscation of
more than 1,000 machines." -vegas review-journal

To me, this is the exception that proves the rule. No CASINO had an
American coin VP machine confiscated: the ones taken were all
installed in bars, laundromats, convenience stores, etc. (none of
whom actually OWNED the machines; they were leased). I wonder if any
of these machines WERE actually installed in casinos, and if so, the
casinos were given a discreet phone call and the chance to trundle
said machines out the back door to a waiting truck rather than
undergoing the high-profile raids that were splashed across the
pages of the R-J.

Also, I find it not at all surprising that a rogue programmer
invented and installed cheating code AFTER DELIVERY. No one on this
board seems to realize how easily, quickly, and unobtrusively this
can be done.

So to reiterate, no CASINO has ever been raided, or had even one of
its VP machines pulled off the floor and taken away for inspection.
Such surprise inspections would seem to me to be an obvious part of
an active enforcement policy; therefore no active enforcement policy
exists.

#17

I agree with most everything you say, Rock, however what can the

VP

community realistically do about this? Outside of quitting, which
most of us will never do voluntarily, what recourse do we have to
force the casinos to PROVE that the FPVP will pay off (in the long-
run, of course) according to computer generated math with which

they

had NOTHING whatever to do. I think that proving that vp payoffs

are

only controlled by the pay schedule, and not rigged in any way, is

a

fruitless task. Anyway, thanks for an interesting post.

You're overlooking something: the casinos wouldn't have to prove
that their VP machines conform to our mathematics (let's face it:
the fact that the manufacturer-supplied statistics for the machines
were so horribly wrong is one of the reasons fullpay VP lasted as
long as it did); they would just have to prove that the cards are
dealt in truly random fashion and that their distribution was in NO
WAY dependent on the player's decision(s). This would be easy to
demonstrate; simply have several sample machines deal several
million hands each, and record what cards were dealt, to whatever
sample size would give us a 99.999% confidence level (one in a
hundred thousand chance that the resuts were inaccurate) for each of
several machines. Thanks to the tremendous computing power available
today even in a laptop, this would be a breeze and could be done in
a few hours' time. So why isn't it ever done?

#18

There was a book written on the American Coin saga a few years ago. I
read it but do not recall the title. Anyone???

The circumstances behind the death of this programmer were very
shady.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>
wrote:

> http://tinyurl.com/4wcd7
> " Volk was the American Coin Co. computer technician who

said

he
> was ordered by the slot machine company's owners to design a
program
> to prevent video poker machines from paying off jackpots with
maximum
> coins bet. The gaff protected bar owners from being hit with large
> jackpots. That is, until a control board investigation exposed the
> scam in 1989 and a raid at 93 locations led to the confiscation of
> more than 1,000 machines." -vegas review-journal

To me, this is the exception that proves the rule. No CASINO had an
American coin VP machine confiscated: the ones taken were all
installed in bars, laundromats, convenience stores, etc. (none of
whom actually OWNED the machines; they were leased). I wonder if

any

of these machines WERE actually installed in casinos, and if so,

the

casinos were given a discreet phone call and the chance to trundle
said machines out the back door to a waiting truck rather than
undergoing the high-profile raids that were splashed across the
pages of the R-J.

Also, I find it not at all surprising that a rogue programmer
invented and installed cheating code AFTER DELIVERY. No one on this
board seems to realize how easily, quickly, and unobtrusively this
can be done.

So to reiterate, no CASINO has ever been raided, or had even one of
its VP machines pulled off the floor and taken away for inspection.
Such surprise inspections would seem to me to be an obvious part of
an active enforcement policy; therefore no active enforcement

policy

···

exists.

#19

Yes, I think being shot in the back of his head as he exited his home could accurately be described as shady circumstances:-) I seem to recall another case where a programmer created a back door that allowed him to hit jackpots (royals, I think) on vp machines... Am I misremembering?

···

At 10:29 PM 9/7/2004, you wrote:

The circumstances behind the death of this programmer were very
shady.

#20

the formula for results (99.7%) versus hands is:

(er+cashback-1) x number of hands
+/- 3 x sqrt(variance x number of hands)

example 1: 5 coin dollar nsud with 1% cashback at 1 million hands:

(.997283+.01-1) x 1,000,000 +/- 3 x sqrt(25.78027 x 1,000,000)=
7283 +/- 15,232 bets
at $5/bet=
$36,415 +/- $76,161 = -$39,746 to $112,576

example 2: 5 coin dollar 10/7 doublebonus at 1 million hands:

(1.001725-1) x 1,000,000 +/- 3 x sqrt(28.2554 x 1,000,000)=
1725 +/- 15,947 bets
at $5/bet=
$8,625 +/- $79,734 = -$71,109 to $88,359

example 3: 5 coin dollar super aces bonus at 1 million hands:

(.999391-1) x 1,000,000 +/- 3 x sqrt(63.36202 x 1,000,000)=
-609 +/- 23,880 bets
at $5/bet=
-$3,045 +/- $119,400 = -$122,445 to $116,355

example 4: 5 coin dollar 6/5 jacks or better at 1 million hands:

(.949961-1) x 1,000,000 +/- 3 x sqrt(19.04472 x 1,000,000)=
-50,039 +/- 13,092 bets
at $5/bet=
-$250,195 +/- $65,460 = -$315,655 to -$184,735