vpFREE2 Forums

need some help deciding when to go for royal

#1

i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%
variance is 28.8516 rf is 1-38,556 for a 2.4878%return.

This bank offers double up and I do double up 2 pairs through 4oK most
of the time. i double 3-5 times depending on my WASGM WILD ASS
SCIENTIFIC GUESS METHOD. With all this time devoted to double up i only
play between 400-550 hands per hour. sometimes i win other times i lose
or quit even. In the last 80,000 hands i have been fortunate and hit 6
royals that i do not double. i really dont want to deal with the taxman
w-2's.
I prefer to report all my own income to the feds from my logs.

Here is my question! Many times I run my $100 investment into $500 to
$600 credits. Is there a dollar point when I should quit screwing
around with the doubleup and just play the 99.56 BONUS POKER? I am sure
I can play between 900 and a 1000 hands per hour with 99+ accuracy.

Thanks,
TD

#2

i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%
variance is 28.8516 ...
Here is my question! Many times I run my $100 investment into $500 to
$600 credits.

Lotspiech has a calculator that can address such questions:
http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html

Is there a dollar point when I should quit screwing
around with the doubleup and just play the 99.56 BONUS POKER?

According to the Kelly criterion, you should never take an even money
gamble.
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
Simplified, you should never bet more than advantage/variance times
your bankroll. If advantage is not positive, you should not bet.

I am sure I can play between 900 and a 1000 hands per hour with 99+

accuracy.

A 1% error rate may be realistic, but it's still very high and will be
difficult to overcome.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

#3

Can someone give a quick explanation of the variance such as the one below (28.8516). I'm a college grad from the 80's and I can't remember. Tx

i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%variance is 28.8516 rf is 1-38,556 for a 2.4878%return.
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To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.comFrom: tdavenport51@yahoo.comDate: Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:01:10 +0000Subject: [vpFREE] need some help deciding when to go for royal

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#4

-Doubling up is not a sound mathematical approach.
-Re when to quit, it is up to you. What is your goal - make a profit or play a certain period or time? Your answer to this question will answer your question.
- Re 6 royals in 80K hands, you should play the lotto too - you are over 4 royals above normal distribution.
Finally, what casino and state is this play at? Is it an Indian casino??

            >i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%

variance is 28.8516 rf is 1-38,556 for a 2.4878%return.

In the last 80,000 hands i have been fortunate and hit 6

royals that i do not double. i really dont want to deal with the taxman

w-2's.

I prefer to report all my own income to the feds from my logs.

Here is my question! Many times I run my $100 investment into $500 to

$600 credits. Is there a dollar point when I should quit screwing

around with the doubleup and just play the 99.56 BONUS POKER? I am sure

I can play between 900 and a 1000 hands per hour with 99+ accuracy.

Thanks,

TD

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

--- On Tue, 12/30/08, TD <tdavenport51@yahoo.com> wrote:

#5

-Doubling up is not a sound mathematical approach.
-Re when to quit, it is up to you. What is your goal - make a

profit or play a certain period or time? Your answer to this
question will answer your question.

- Re 6 royals in 80K hands, you should play the lotto too - you are

over 4 royals above normal distribution.

Finally, what casino and state is this play at? Is it an Indian

casino??

SNIPPED ORIGINAL BODY..........

JUST CATCHING UP ON THE ROYALS, I WAS 8 BEHIND FOR THE YEAR FOR
NUMBER OF HANDS PLAYED UNTIL THIS RUN CAME ALONG.
I KNOW DOUBLINGUP IS NOT MATHEMATICAL APPROACH WITH EXCEPTION OF
MAYBE THE FIRST DOUBLE. 50/50 BUT IT IS ALWAYS WITH MY WINNINGS NOT
CASINO WINNINGS.I ALWAYS AM RISKING MY MONEY NOT THEIRS. i do know
startegy downpat and only make errors if i miss seeing the play.

HERES MY POINT, I GOT LUCKY, IM UP 600 THIS SESSION. MY GOAL IS TO
HIT ROYAL BECAUSE THE THEO. RETURN ON THIS BANK IS LESS THAN A
HUNDRED PERCENT, I THOUGHT PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA STARTING
BANKROLL I WOULD HIT A ROYAL AND PROFIT MORE THAN JUST PLODDING ALONG
MY AND GETTING LUCKY. I HOPE I MADE MYSELF CLEARER THAN MUD.
THIS IS THE PALMS CASINO. I LIKE THE THRILL OF THE DOUBLE UP AND
SLOWED DOWN PLAYING MY FULL PAY DEUCES WILD PROGRESSIVE WHEN THEY SET
THE METER TO RUN ALMOST BACKWARDS.
Thanks for the response,

TD

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Robert Romanyshyn <bobfpdw@...> wrote:

--- On Tue, 12/30/08, TD <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

See FAQ #42:

http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ.htm#42

···

On 30 Dec 2008 at 15:14, James Thompson wrote:

Can someone give a quick explanation of the variance ...

#7

TD wrote:

i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%
variance is 28.8516 rf is 1-38,556 for a 2.4878%return.

This bank offers double up and I do double up 2 pairs through 4oK
most of the time. i double 3-5 times depending on my WASGM WILD ASS
SCIENTIFIC GUESS METHOD. With all this time devoted to double up i
only play between 400-550 hands per hour.

Here is my question! Many times I run my $100 investment into $500
to $600 credits. Is there a dollar point when I should quit screwing
around with the doubleup and just play the 99.56 BONUS POKER? I am
sure
I can play between 900 and a 1000 hands per hour with 99+ accuracy.

This really boils down to the question of "Does it make sense to
double?" Bottom line, the surrounding facts don't change the answer
to this question.

I imagine there's a FAQ that specifically addresses doubling. I'll
toss out a couple of core observations.

It's possible to finely analyze the question in terms of ER specifics,
ER, but the heart is pretty easy to tackle. Doubling is a breakeven
proposition, and for a game such as this doesn't appreciably change
your expected results (on average).

But doubling substantially increases your dollar variance (potential
win/loss). Frankly, I see doubling as a more entertaining version of
simply consistently playing at a higher denomination. As such, I
think it can be a very intelligent play choice.

However, many players underestimate the greater bankroll risk posed.
And in my book, the hazard comes down to just that. (Ok, there is the
fact that if you play at a higher denomination instead, you get credit
for the higher wager activity ... the implicit higher average wager in
doubling are ignored by the casino and you lose valuable rating/comp
credit.)

So long as you keep yourself conscious to the greater bankroll risk
(which is tricker to get a feel for), and accept the casino rating
sacrifice vs just player at a higher denomination, I don't find
doubling unsound at all.

To most directly address your question in this foregoing context: The
choice as to what point at which to limit doubling is strictly a
question of your own variance tolerance (it'll vary by person).

- Harry

#8

Off of the original intent of this post, but if you get a $1,000 win, choose
to double, and win, do you get a W2G?

···

On Tue, Dec 30, 2008 at 12:01 PM, TD <tdavenport51@yahoo.com> wrote:

  i play 8-5 bonus with a 1199 royal this comes to 99.5684%
variance is 28.8516 rf is 1-38,556 for a 2.4878%return.

This bank offers double up and I do double up 2 pairs through 4oK most
of the time. i double 3-5 times depending on my WASGM WILD ASS
SCIENTIFIC GUESS METHOD. With all this time devoted to double up i only
play between 400-550 hands per hour. sometimes i win other times i lose
or quit even. In the last 80,000 hands i have been fortunate and hit 6
royals that i do not double. i really dont want to deal with the taxman
w-2's.
I prefer to report all my own income to the feds from my logs.

Here is my question! Many times I run my $100 investment into $500 to
$600 credits. Is there a dollar point when I should quit screwing
around with the doubleup and just play the 99.56 BONUS POKER? I am sure
I can play between 900 and a 1000 hands per hour with 99+ accuracy.

Thanks,
TD

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Off of the original intent of this post, but if you get a $1,000 win,

choose

to double, and win, do you get a W2G?

Yes. The attendant will usually stare at the screen trying to decide
why a nothing hand is a jackpot and you have to explain to them that it
is a double-up display to which they stare at you like you are a
freak. Machines apparently have a maximum double-up setting and
casinos will frequently have it set so as to not allow you to double
beyond $600. I once hit a progressive royal on a non-regulated Florida
day cruise ship. The machine asked me if I wished to double to which I
declined. I later asked the casino manager if they would have paid me
if I had choose the double option and won to which I was told "No".

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jason Pawloski" <jpawloski@...> wrote:

#10

Off of the original intent of this post, but if you get a $1,000 win,

choose

to double, and win, do you get a W2G?
MESSAGE SNIPPED!!!

i certainly dont know these days, but in the past, like tens years ago
the answer was yes at Harrahs Kansas City.
on a wednesday, i saw a guy double a progressive $5 machine at 23,200
he won and cashed at 46,400. there are only two machines and i was
right beside him. the change lady said "again"? he had hit Sunday for
25600 and double to 51200. i said do you have them withhold anything
and his answer was NO. he paid off his house and boat Monday and felt
as if he owed noone in the world. I suspect around August of the next
year he found he owed an Uncle and the state of Missouri 30000+.
regards,TD

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jason Pawloski" <jpawloski@...> wrote:

#11

TD wrote .......

> SNIPPED ORIGINAL BODY..........

JUST CATCHING UP ON THE ROYALS, I WAS 8 BEHIND FOR THE YEAR FOR
NUMBER OF HANDS PLAYED UNTIL THIS RUN CAME ALONG.
I KNOW DOUBLINGUP IS NOT MATHEMATICAL APPROACH WITH EXCEPTION OF
MAYBE THE FIRST DOUBLE. 50/50 BUT IT IS ALWAYS WITH MY WINNINGS NOT
CASINO WINNINGS.I ALWAYS AM RISKING MY MONEY NOT THEIRS. i do know
startegy downpat and only make errors if i miss seeing the play.

HERES MY POINT, I GOT LUCKY, IM UP 600 THIS SESSION. MY GOAL IS TO
HIT ROYAL BECAUSE THE THEO. RETURN ON THIS BANK IS LESS THAN A
HUNDRED PERCENT, I THOUGHT PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA STARTING
BANKROLL I WOULD HIT A ROYAL AND PROFIT MORE THAN JUST PLODDING

ALONG

MY AND GETTING LUCKY. I HOPE I MADE MYSELF CLEARER THAN MUD.
THIS IS THE PALMS CASINO. I LIKE THE THRILL OF THE DOUBLE UP AND
SLOWED DOWN PLAYING MY FULL PAY DEUCES WILD PROGRESSIVE WHEN THEY

SET

THE METER TO RUN ALMOST BACKWARDS.
Thanks for the response,

TD

TD, there are several statements in your reply that aren't based on
sound mathematics and could be dangerous to your bankroll.

1) I KNOW DOUBLINGUP IS NOT MATHEMATICAL APPROACH WITH EXCEPTION OF

MAYBE THE FIRST DOUBLE.

Doubling up is just a zero expectation wager. The math behind it is
pretty simple. The long term expected value is 0, a break even wager.
In the long term, doubling up has the same same expected value as not
doubling up. You increase your risk, variance and will need a bigger
bankroll if you double up.

Doubling the first hand or 12th hand makes no difference in the
expectation of the wager. By doubling after winning several double up
wagers, you are betting more money, but the expectation is the same.

2) 50/50 BUT IT IS ALWAYS WITH MY WINNINGS NOT

CASINO WINNINGS.I ALWAYS AM RISKING MY MONEY NOT THEIRS.

I'm not I exactly understand what you are saying but I want to make
the point that any money you are in control of is your money,
regardless of how it got there. If I put in $20 into a dollar 9/6 JOB
machine and hit for a full house the first hand, I have $60 on the
credit meter. That is my money. If on another occassion I put $60
into a machine and don't play a single hand, that $60 is my money.
There is no house money vs my money. Whatever money I have in my
control is my money, period. How it got there doesn't really matter.

The dangerous part of thinking about it as casino money and my money
is that you might treat casino money as a 'gift' and be more willing
to wager it on higher risk bets.

3) HERES MY POINT, I GOT LUCKY, IM UP 600 THIS SESSION. MY GOAL IS TO

HIT ROYAL BECAUSE THE THEO. RETURN ON THIS BANK IS LESS THAN A
HUNDRED PERCENT, I THOUGHT PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA STARTING
BANKROLL I WOULD HIT A ROYAL AND PROFIT MORE THAN JUST PLODDING

ALONG

MY AND GETTING LUCKY

Hmm, if you have a larger bankroll to play with, you can play longer
and will be more likely to hit a royal than if you played with a
smaller bankroll. That is true. Playing a negative game because you
hit earlier is not a sound reason for doing so.

The simple rule is to play as little as possible ( preferrably none)
on negative games and play a lot ( subject to bankroll
considerations) on positive games. The fact that you hit for $600 (
which is your money, not casino money) doesn't make the negative game
any better to play. All you are doing is subjecting your now larger
bankroll to a negative game.

#12

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...>
wrote:

> CASINO WINNINGS.I ALWAYS AM RISKING MY MONEY NOT THEIRS.

I'm not I exactly understand what you are saying but I want to make
the point that any money you are in control of is your money,
regardless of how it got there. If I put in $20 into a dollar 9/6

JOB

machine and hit for a full house the first hand, I have $60 on the
credit meter. That is my money. If on another occassion I put $60
into a machine and don't play a single hand, that $60 is my money.
There is no house money vs my money. Whatever money I have in my
control is my money, period. How it got there doesn't really

matter.

The dangerous part of thinking about it as casino money and my

money

is that you might treat casino money as a 'gift' and be more

willing

to wager it on higher risk bets.

what im saying here is that the only reason i am doubling up is

because i got a return. the casino never offers my losing back to me
on a losing hand. so i am always gambling with my money not the
casinos money when i start a double up.
it maybe a zero expectation but if everything is on the level i have
a 50% chance to win the first double and two in a row becomes 1 in 4
and 3rd 1-8 .5x.5x.5x.5. you are looking at it as if i dont
understand the risks. i understand the risks and to me a zero
expectaion is no worse than playing a less than 100% machine.
regards,
TD

#13

I still don't understand. You place an even money $1,000 wager, win, so you
now have $2,000. But the win itself was only $1,000, the other $1,000 was at
risk. And that's worthy of a W2G?

···

On Wed, Dec 31, 2008 at 1:32 PM, vegasvpplayer <vegasvpplayer@gmail.com>wrote:

   --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com>, "Jason
Pawloski" <jpawloski@...> wrote:
>
> Off of the original intent of this post, but if you get a $1,000 win,
choose
> to double, and win, do you get a W2G?
>

Yes. The attendant will usually stare at the screen trying to decide
why a nothing hand is a jackpot and you have to explain to them that it
is a double-up display to which they stare at you like you are a
freak. Machines apparently have a maximum double-up setting and
casinos will frequently have it set so as to not allow you to double
beyond $600. I once hit a progressive royal on a non-regulated Florida
day cruise ship. The machine asked me if I wished to double to which I
declined. I later asked the casino manager if they would have paid me
if I had choose the double option and won to which I was told "No".

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

I still don't understand. You place an even money $1,000 wager, win,

so you

now have $2,000. But the win itself was only $1,000, the other $1,000

was at

risk. And that's worthy of a W2G?

no it is not worthy of a w2g, but the IRS says on machines a payout

of more than 1199 gets a w2g regardless of the amount wagered. not so
with parimutual or table games.
TD
that is why often times a SF pays 239coins on $5 machine. 250x5=1250
239 x 5= $1195 saves the patron and casino from filling out a w2g.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jason Pawloski" <jpawloski@...> wrote:

#15

I still don't understand. You place an even money $1,000 wager, win,

so you

now have $2,000. But the win itself was only $1,000, the other $1,000

was at

risk. And that's worthy of a W2G?

Yes. Any PAYOUT >= $1200 generates a W-2G. If you play $100 9/6 JoB,
any three of a kind which pays $1500 (3:1 for a $500 max coin bet) gets
you a W-2G even though you are only $1000 ahead.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jason Pawloski" <jpawloski@...> wrote:

#16

I know what you're saying, but in some situations I like to think of
betting my winnings as playing with the house money. For example,
let's say I have $500 to play with that needs to last the day. My
goals are to make the $500 last and have a shot at a big win (which I
might define as several thousand - which is why I'm attracted to VP
in the first place). So let's say that early on I hit a royal
playing quarters for $1000. Now that I'm playing with the casino's
money I may step up in denomination and play a $2 machine or some STP
or multistrike with some of the profit to go for that "big" win. So
while I understand that it is now my money, the fact that it is
profit means I see it as having a bigger bankroll and having the
chance to take more risk in a quest for more reward.

Steve

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...>
wrote:

2) 50/50 BUT IT IS ALWAYS WITH MY WINNINGS NOT
> CASINO WINNINGS.I ALWAYS AM RISKING MY MONEY NOT THEIRS.

I'm not I exactly understand what you are saying but I want to make
the point that any money you are in control of is your money,
regardless of how it got there. If I put in $20 into a dollar 9/6

JOB

machine and hit for a full house the first hand, I have $60 on the
credit meter. That is my money. If on another occassion I put $60
into a machine and don't play a single hand, that $60 is my money.
There is no house money vs my money. Whatever money I have in my
control is my money, period. How it got there doesn't really

matter.

The dangerous part of thinking about it as casino money and my

money

is that you might treat casino money as a 'gift' and be more

willing

···

to wager it on higher risk bets.

#17

I know what you're saying, but in some situations I like to think

of

betting my winnings as playing with the house money. For example,
let's say I have $500 to play with that needs to last the day. My
goals are to make the $500 last and have a shot at a big win (which

I

might define as several thousand - which is why I'm attracted to VP
in the first place). So let's say that early on I hit a royal
playing quarters for $1000. Now that I'm playing with the casino's
money I may step up in denomination and play a $2 machine or some

STP

or multistrike with some of the profit to go for that "big" win.

So

while I understand that it is now my money, the fact that it is
profit means I see it as having a bigger bankroll and having the
chance to take more risk in a quest for more reward.

Steve

In looking at the overall picture your move to "step up in
denomination" is still being based on your overall bankroll.

But if you view it as the "casino's money", when would it become
yours? And if you had immediately gone home after hitting the royal
and returned a week later, are you still playing with the casino's
money?

It seems prudent (in a game of risk, which is ironic) to assess your
funds as always being your money. You then determine what and how to
play accordingly. If you hit an early royal, as in your example, your
personal bankroll has increased. That's the determining factor in
what you choose to do next. As far as I'm concerned, the casino where
you won exited being a part of that equation after you were paid.
After all, over the course of the year there will no doubt be plenty
of back and forth anyway.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@...> wrote:

#18

larsonsm wrote:

I know what you're saying, but in some situations I like to think
of betting my winnings as playing with the house money.

I'll add to what's been offered in reply: Gambling is about variance
-- you know you're going to see losses and wins. When you hit big
with a royal, it's nothing other than the counterpart to the expected
losses when you fail to hit a royal (or those losses between royals).
The royal payout is no more "house money" than when you get paid for
a full house, or any other hand.

There's nothing inherently wrong in jumping denomination after a big
win (as you go on to suggest in your post). You're simply exposing
yourself to greater variance and greater loss risk (offset by greater
win risk). If your bankroll is sufficient overall, you're fine.

The problem is that most people intuitively gravitate to that
denomination for day to day play that's most consistent with their
bankroll capacity and loss tolerance. If you jump denomination
because your pockets are temporarily flush with a jackpot it's most
likely that what you'll end up squandering a needed cushion against
future losses -- it's a recipe for finding yourself prematurely
frustrated by cumulative losses down the road that otherwise you'd be
better protected against. This goes even if you should meet with a
lucky hit during a brief pot shot at a high denomination ... one hit
alone won't likely be sufficient to cover the higher variance when
it's repeated behavior.

- Harry

#19

Most VP players are underbankrolled, even most advantage players. Therefore, those players would see a "smoother" ride if they first determined what bankroll they need to play the denomination they want. (And it is usually a lot more than they think.) And any jackpots should go into growing that too-small bankroll, NOT to going up in denomination. Jumping around in denomination when you are underbankrolled even for the lowest one is a recipe for a roller coaster ride that can prove fatal - meaning you will go broke and often VERY quickly.

I'm not saying what you MUST do. Some players love the feeling of living dangerously close to the edge of ruin. But if you want to make your fun last longer as a recreational gambler or if you want to have a better chance of lasting longer as an advantage player with more time to get to the positive long-term, you will concentrate on building your bankroll to the proper level BEFORE you ever go up in denomination.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#20

I'm not saying what you MUST do. Some players love the feeling of

living

dangerously close to the edge of ruin. But if you want to make

your fun

last longer as a recreational gambler or if you want to have a

better chance

of lasting longer as an advantage player with more time to get to

the

positive long-term, you will concentrate on building your bankroll

to the

proper level BEFORE you ever go up in denomination.

I can't think of a better way to start 2009 than to truly focus on
bankroll. It can "make" or "sink" any of us.

I recall a night when I hit a $5 royal. Later, I wandered over to a
single-line $25 9-6 Jacks machine since I felt at ease. I could
certainly play for awhile and rack up a lot of points, or maybe get a
few four-of-a-kinds for $3125 and make the night even better.

You know the rest. In less than 15 minutes $2500 (over 10% of my
royal) was gone. I had maybe one FH during the whole session, the
rest non-paying or low-paying hands quickly recycled. The cocktail
waitress barely had time to even go and get my bottled water.

Clearly, it wasn't a question of whether I could absorb a $2K loss.
Of course I could. But now the joy of the royal was tainted, my
evening "soured" by a poor decision that could have easily been
prevented. Because instead of playing impulsively I could have gone
back to my room with my $20K and asked myself, "Great, now exactly
what can I play and how much would I need?"

And the answer for me would not have been to play a machine requiring
5 times the bet I had been making earlier that evening.

A foolish mistake. But you do learn from the pain.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote: