vpFREE2 Forums

Mega bucks

Aren't jackpot winners on such games paid out over the course of 20 years or
so and if that is true, how do factor in that negative aspect not only from
the unknown of ones life expectancy but inflation as well. I agree, it really
is not worth the interest or effort.

In a message dated 7/21/2005 7:03:46 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,
jfthomas3@comcast.net writes:

I think the concept of "full pay" on these slots is a little silly...
let's assume for the sake of argument that the $1.00 "Squeal Of
Torture" machine goes "positive" at $2.5 million.

That means that if you pumped $2.5 Million into the machine, you'd
likely hit it before you went broke.

I would think that if one had $2.5 MM sitting around to gamble with,
one would play a better game -- like, say, the stock market.

Not to mention that at $3 a spin, that's 833,333 spins (and that damn
extra dollar that you always have left on the meter at the end of
your run on them...). IF we assume that a spin takes 20 seconds
(without a bonus round) then, at a minimum, that's 4,629 hours of
play -- more than 192 straight days 24X7, or if you play 9-5 monday
through friday, more than 2 years.

Plus, I have a feeling that the "breakeven" on those machines is
astronomically high, far more than even the $2.5 MM that I pulled out
of the air.

But, um, go ahead and enjoy your "advantage" play on the Squeal of
Torture, secure in the knowledge that you have an "edge" on the
casino. :slight_smile:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Aren't jackpot winners on such games paid out over the course of 20

years or

so and if that is true, how do factor in that negative aspect not

only from

the unknown of ones life expectancy but inflation as well

Financial folks can compute the NPV (net present value) of a future
stream of cash flows at a given interest rate.

If you are fortunate enough to hit a megaprogressive, you have the
option of taking a lump sum payment or annual payments over a number of
years.

Don the Dentist

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Countgr8@a... wrote:

Is this 100% certain? I was under the impression that companies like
IGT bought annuities to pay mega-jackpot winners over time.

As to the NPV question, given current interest rates, my guess is that
on a 20 year payout, the NPV is somewhere between 50% and 60% of the
amount shown on the meter (which regarding Megabucks, is about to
cross $17 Million).

Financial folks can compute the NPV (net present value) of a future
stream of cash flows at a given interest rate.

If you are fortunate enough to hit a megaprogressive, you have the
option of taking a lump sum payment or annual payments over a number

of

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dds2124" <dds6@c...> wrote:

years.

Don the Dentist

They do buy annuities but only if needed after the fact generally.
You can take a lump sum although most people (age/health issues the
main reason to) should not on the machines or the lottery.

Is this 100% certain? I was under the impression that companies

like

IGT bought annuities to pay mega-jackpot winners over time.

As to the NPV question, given current interest rates, my guess is

that

on a 20 year payout, the NPV is somewhere between 50% and 60% of

the

amount shown on the meter (which regarding Megabucks, is about to
cross $17 Million).

> Financial folks can compute the NPV (net present value) of a

future

> stream of cash flows at a given interest rate.
>
> If you are fortunate enough to hit a megaprogressive, you have

the

> option of taking a lump sum payment or annual payments over a

number

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dds2124" <dds6@c...> wrote:
of
> years.
>
> Don the Dentist

Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum? If
the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking the lump
sum and buying your own annuity. I'd rather have the money to invest
as I see fit, not to mention avoid the risk of dying or default on the
money owed during the 20 years.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Boutot" <vegas_iwish@y...>
wrote:

···

They do buy annuities but only if needed after the fact generally.
You can take a lump sum although most people (age/health issues the
main reason to) should not on the machines or the lottery.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@y...> wrote:
> Is this 100% certain? I was under the impression that companies
like
> IGT bought annuities to pay mega-jackpot winners over time.
>
> As to the NPV question, given current interest rates, my guess is
that
> on a 20 year payout, the NPV is somewhere between 50% and 60% of
the
> amount shown on the meter (which regarding Megabucks, is about to
> cross $17 Million).
>

Exactly. I should be able to get a better return with a good investment portfolio than I would get as an interest rate on an annuity, and I only get one tax hit on it.

···

On Jul 22, 2005, at 9:07 AM, larsonsm wrote:

Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum? If
the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking the lump
sum and buying your own annuity. I'd rather have the money to invest
as I see fit, not to mention avoid the risk of dying or default on the
money owed during the 20 years.

Well, I'm not a financial expert, but I can see a few reasons why the
lump sum might not be such a good idea. I don't know if they are all
actually valid, but that's the kind of thing I'd want to research if I
was given the choice:

-local taxes. I'd have to page CA state income taxes on a lump sum,
whereas I might be able to move somewhere else where there is no state
income tax. That's a 9% difference right away.

-I'm not convinced that I can find a safe, stable and guaranteed
investment that works as well as the annuities.

-I'm very much hoping not to die in the next 25 years, and I'd
definitely research insurance policies against the risk that the
annuities might stop flowing in.

-On jackpots such that the annuities would be a couple hundred
thousand dollars per year (which is the case of $9M over 25 years),
the tax differences between a lump sum and annuities isn't necessarily
negligible, especially if the annuities are the primary or only form
of taxable income (the bracketing on federal income tax can save up to
$25K a year).

Running very rough numbers, assuming a choice between 25 times $360K
($9M total) or $4.5M immediately, assuming that I find tax-free
investments, factoring in the 9% I'd have to pay in CA income tax,
approximately 7% in tax savings thanks to bracketing, putting in 2% in
insurance premiums (pulled out of thin air), I figure that I'd have to
be able to get a tax-free investment return of about 9% - not
necessarily an easy task. Of course, the evolution of inflation and
interest rates adds quite a number of variables to the mix.

Of course, that's the kind of decision for which it's a good idea to
pay a few thousand dollars to see a couple of financial advisors and
work out a real plan.

JBQ

···

On 7/22/05, larsonsm <larsonsm@yahoo.com> wrote:

Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum? If
the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking the lump
sum and buying your own annuity. I'd rather have the money to invest
as I see fit, not to mention avoid the risk of dying or default on the
money owed during the 20 years.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Boutot" <vegas_iwish@y...>
wrote:

They do buy annuities but only if needed after the fact generally.
You can take a lump sum although most people (age/health issues the
main reason to) should not on the machines or the lottery.
---

IGT purchases insurance with their piece of each bet, the insurance
company or companies pay the win
the annuity is figured on a 4.5% rate
if you think you can due better take the lump sum, also much easier &
cheaper to leave to heirs or hairs or hares.
M J

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@g...>
wrote:

Well, I'm not a financial expert, but I can see a few reasons why

the

lump sum might not be such a good idea. I don't know if they are all
actually valid, but that's the kind of thing I'd want to research

if I

was given the choice:

-local taxes. I'd have to page CA state income taxes on a lump sum,
whereas I might be able to move somewhere else where there is no

state

income tax. That's a 9% difference right away.

You can establish residentcy in Nevada before the the end of the year
& ca cant touch it, (they lost a case in Supreme Court few years ago
trying to tax retirees that moved, Supreme Court ruled not a resident
at end of tax year ,no state tax owed. )

************************************************
-I'm not convinced that I can find a safe, stable and guaranteed
investment that works as well as the annuities.

-I'm very much hoping not to die in the next 25 years, and I'd
definitely research insurance policies against the risk that the
annuities might stop flowing in.

********************************************8**
They are invested in goverment bonds mostly, PIMCO is used a lot.

I am 51 & i hope not to die ether!!!
Annuties are an insurance policy, usally also backed by large
banks,Citicorp for one, but it is a good idea to check

-On jackpots such that the annuities would be a couple hundred
thousand dollars per year (which is the case of $9M over 25 years),
the tax differences between a lump sum and annuities isn't

necessarily

negligible, especially if the annuities are the primary or only form
of taxable income (the bracketing on federal income tax can save up

to

···

$25K a year).

Running very rough numbers, assuming a choice between 25 times $360K
($9M total) or $4.5M immediately,

************************************************************
for 4.5 mill to double in 25years only takes 2.9 percent a year if
left fully invested
************************************************
assuming that I find tax-free

investments, factoring in the 9%

I'd have to pay in CA income tax,
************************************************
Already figured out how to avoid
********************************************
approximately 7% in tax savings thanks to bracketing, putting in 2%
in

insurance premiums (pulled out of thin air),

****************************************************
insurance more than likely not needed
*****************************************************

I figure that I'd have to

be able to get a tax-free investment return of about 9% - not
necessarily an easy task. Of course, the evolution of inflation and
interest rates adds quite a number of variables to the mix.

*****************************************************
With AMT any investment MIGHT be taxed , if you mean after taxes 9%
would tough , but possible, stocks do grow tax free (except divedens)
until you sell
You would have no inflation protection with an annuity, some
goverment bonds with inflation protection built in ( TIPS?) are now
yeilding 4% or better,
*******************************

Of course, that's the kind of decision for which it's a good idea to
pay a few thousand dollars to see a couple of financial advisors and
work out a real plan.

JBQ
******************************************

& know enuf to ask the right ?'s as you have demonstrated ,
No flames intended as you made many good points that must be
considered such as taxes.
****************************************************

On 7/22/05, larsonsm <larsonsm@y...> wrote:
> Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum?

I would because of my age & i want to be in control of my destiny,
BUT not everybody would
M J

You could conceivably pay the tax on the winnings, then move it offshore and invest it, and then only pay taxes on the portions you bring back in (I think. Not being an international tax expert.... I don't really know). Then you'll only pay taxes on the initial reduced sum, and any gains brought into the States.

So, assuming that can be worked that way, and you invest it in something that does S&P (and the 25-year history of the stock market is pretty darn good, recent softness notwithstanding) and have a balanced portfolio(real estate, bonds, stocks, etc.) you should really be able to do much better than 2.5% with little risk.

Then again, this is just pure fantasy, anyway, so indulge me the concept of going down to visit my money a few times a year in the Grand Caymans. :smiley:

Thanks for all the information, much appreciated. It's not that I plan
to win such a jackpot, just that thinking about it keeps my brain
busy.

JBQ

···

On 7/22/05, mklpryy24 <mklpryy24@yahoo.com> wrote:

[...]

The problem arises for your heirs, if you die and they inherit the annuity. It all
becomes taxable immediately!

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:

Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum? If
the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking the lump
sum and buying your own annuity. I'd rather have the money to invest
as I see fit, not to mention avoid the risk of dying or default on the
money owed during the 20 years.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Boutot" <vegas_iwish@y...>
wrote:
> They do buy annuities but only if needed after the fact generally.
> You can take a lump sum although most people (age/health issues the
> main reason to) should not on the machines or the lottery.
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@y...> wrote:
> > Is this 100% certain? I was under the impression that companies
> like
> > IGT bought annuities to pay mega-jackpot winners over time.
> >
> > As to the NPV question, given current interest rates, my guess is
> that
> > on a 20 year payout, the NPV is somewhere between 50% and 60% of
> the
> > amount shown on the meter (which regarding Megabucks, is about to
> > cross $17 Million).
> >

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...>
wrote:

The problem arises for your heirs, if you die and they inherit the

annuity. It all

becomes taxable immediately!

.....bl

with only 18 months to full pay & thats after you fill out forms &
argue over the amount of "discount" your heirs are entitiled too
because of "inability" to access all of the money & it wont be much!!

M J

> Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum?

If

> the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking

the lump

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:
> sum and buying your own annuity.

The reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is people taking
the $$ up front. Not only the money but the taxes you pay on it also
dimish in value over time - can't just focus on 1. Becoming rich is
an art that takes time (hope I acquire the need for the skill :slight_smile: ) &
taking it all upfont means you get no practice/1 try. Investing is
not the issue at that point - you have the money. It is growing into
(or hopefully avoiding in some cases) the lifestyle changes that come
with sudden wealth. Between the "fair" (interest rates very low now
remember) discount & massive tax bill it is a generally bad decision
few should make. Default not really an issue with states or IGT.

Why would you say that most people should not take the lump sum?

If

the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking the

lump

sum and buying your own annuity. I'd rather have the money to

invest

as I see fit, not to mention avoid the risk of dying or default on

the

money owed during the 20 years.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Boutot" <vegas_iwish@y...>
wrote:
> They do buy annuities but only if needed after the fact

generally.

> You can take a lump sum although most people (age/health issues

the

> main reason to) should not on the machines or the lottery.
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@y...>

wrote:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:

> > Is this 100% certain? I was under the impression that companies
> like
> > IGT bought annuities to pay mega-jackpot winners over time.
> >

No, the reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is because a lot of people make very stupid decisions when faced with a flush of cash.

That doesn't mean that taking the lump sum is a stupid decision. It generally isn't.

However, investing $1,000,000 in "Uncle Luke's Tadpole & Moss Farm" probably is. :slight_smile:

···

On Jul 22, 2005, at 6:34 PM, Michael Boutot wrote:

The reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is people taking
the $$ up front.

No, the reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is that many people make stupid decisions with their money.

Taking it up front instead of in an annuity, however, isn't necessarily one of them.

Investing $1,000,000 in "Uncle Lester's Tadpole & Moss Emporium" probably is. :wink:

···

On Jul 22, 2005, at 6:34 PM, Michael Boutot wrote:

The reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is people taking
the $$ up front.

The real message here is that it is almost NEVER an advantage to
take the annuity. The lump sum option usuually always trumps.

But, if you are ever in the situation, make sure that you consult
with a good, reputable, and respected financial consultant and tax
lawyer as to what is best for YOU and your loved ones!

Even in cases as obvious as this one seems to be, one size does NOT
fit all, and outside help for your SPECIFIC situation is mandatory.

As someone else said in this thread recently, even though there are
many pitfalls in becoming very rich instantaneously, I would like to
give it a try. LOL

.....bl

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537"

<bornloser1537@y...>

wrote:
> The problem arises for your heirs, if you die and they inherit

the

annuity. It all
> becomes taxable immediately!
>
> .....bl
>
with only 18 months to full pay & thats after you fill out forms &
argue over the amount of "discount" your heirs are entitiled too
because of "inability" to access all of the money & it wont be

much!!

M J

> > Why would you say that most people should not take the lump

sum?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote:

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:
If
> > the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off taking
the lump
> > sum and buying your own annuity.

Unless you need the $$ upfront I strongly disagree but will not post
on subject again. Everyone seems to at least agree there are a lot of
foolish people & bringing in a lawyer or accountant ( I am 1 of the
latter) to "assist" them is more likely to lead to further danger
than help. Throwing numbers around does not cut it as once you have
millions worrying about investment returns should be secondary.
Protecting the principal is the key then. Not having it yet to lose
would have saved so many...
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...>
wrote:

The real message here is that it is almost NEVER an advantage to
take the annuity. The lump sum option usuually always trumps.

But, if you are ever in the situation, make sure that you consult
with a good, reputable, and respected financial consultant and tax
lawyer as to what is best for YOU and your loved ones!

Even in cases as obvious as this one seems to be, one size does NOT
fit all, and outside help for your SPECIFIC situation is mandatory.

As someone else said in this thread recently, even though there are
many pitfalls in becoming very rich instantaneously, I would like

to

give it a try. LOL

.....bl

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537"
<bornloser1537@y...>
> wrote:
> > The problem arises for your heirs, if you die and they inherit
the
> annuity. It all
> > becomes taxable immediately!
> >
> > .....bl
> >
> with only 18 months to full pay & thats after you fill out forms

&

> argue over the amount of "discount" your heirs are entitiled too
> because of "inability" to access all of the money & it wont be
much!!
>
> M J
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > > Why would you say that most people should not take the lump
sum?
> If
> > > the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off

taking

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mklpryy24" <mklpryy24@y...> wrote:
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:
> the lump
> > > sum and buying your own annuity.

> The reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is people taking
> the $$ up front.
*********************************************

NO its STUPID people who dont have a clue about $, I know people who
retired from 50k - 80k a year jobs becuase they had 200k in 401k's !!!!
Yet they still do not blame themselves, Its "they should have not let
me retire" or "nobody told me" or my favorite "the goverment needs to
do somthing" as they fight for Wal Mart greeters jobs!!
M J

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Thomas <jfthomas3@c...> wrote:

On Jul 22, 2005, at 6:34 PM, Michael Boutot wrote:

>

No, the reason there are lottery-winner-to-rags stories is because a
lot of people make very stupid decisions when faced with a flush of
cash.

That doesn't mean that taking the lump sum is a stupid decision. It
generally isn't.

However, investing $1,000,000 in "Uncle Luke's Tadpole & Moss Farm"
probably is. :slight_smile:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Boutot" <vegas_iwish@y...>
wrote:

Unless you need the $$ upfront I strongly disagree but will not

post

on subject again. Everyone seems to at least agree there are a lot

of

foolish people & bringing in a lawyer or accountant ( I am 1 of the
latter) to "assist" them is more likely to lead to further danger
than help.

HUH??? sounds like you are saying you & other members of your
profession cant be trusted. I will take your word for it ; )

···

*********************************************

Throwing numbers around does not cut it as once you have

millions worrying about investment returns should be secondary.
Protecting the principal is the key then. Not having it yet to lose
would have saved so many...

From what? themselves? or accountants ? heck ,just contact Vangaurd
or PIMCO & invest in the goverment bond funds & you will beat the
return of the annuity !

I was raised to luv everybody but depend on nobody, self education is
the key to knowledge, & smart people do learn from the mistakes of
others.
M J
*********************************

> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...>

wrote:

> > > > Why would you say that most people should not take the lump
> sum?
> > If
> > > > the discout rate they use if fair, you are no worse off
taking
> > the lump
> > > > sum and buying your own annuity.