First you do agree, unlike others, that it is not totally random. The
randomness means quads can happen at any time. The non-randomness means the
machines are programmed over a period of time to pay out a specific amount.
Marc, without getting into the pseudo random argument, what you are saying above is still contradictory.
Let's get down to the basics. When you hit the deal button, 5 cards are selected. The first card selected is equally likely to be any of the 52 cards. That card is not determined by any previous dealt hands or results. It is determined by the rng algo inside the machine. So, card #1 is selected. Now, card number 2 is selected from the remaining 51 cards. Likewise the next 3 cards are selected. So, we have our 5 card hand. This 5 card hand is not determined by the previous dealt hands or previous results. That is, if the current hand is Ac 4c 2h 9d Td, the next hand dealt has a 1 in 52 chance of having Ac as the first card. This is what is meant by randomly dealing the cards.
The quad frequency is determined by how well I play. I can pick cards in such a way that I decrease my chances of getting quads. If I'm dealt 4c 5c 4h 7h and I pick the 7h, I decrease my chance of getting a quad. This has nothing to do with randomness.
How do you think the quad frequency is altered by the machine? If they pick cards randomly, does the machine reject a certain number of quads?
All the information you have provided is non specific. 'Quads don't seem to happen as often as they used to' is way different than 'In 2009 I had 400 quads in 1,000,000 hands played and in 2010 I have had 200 quads in 1,000,000 hands dealt'. Without some numbers to back up the claim, it's impossible to determine if the claim is valid.
The paytable determines the best payback you can get for a given machine. For the full pay PE machines, this is about 99.95%. Your playing ability will determine if you reach that value. There is also a range of returns based on the statistics of the game.
I refer to bad machines at Rideau Carleton Raceway Casino - let me explain
For at least 5 years, there were 8 Game King VP machines with $1 Pick'em on
them as well as Double Bonus which I prefer. Most nights these machines were
full of players and you had to wait until someone got off.
Then they introduced new Bally VP machines with Pick'em on the other side of
the casino. I tried them. It felt all you would do is go downhill. All the
regular players stuck to the old machines instead of gravitating to the new
ones. Frustrated, the casino management left the old machines there, but
removed the Pick'em choice.
For awhile, the Pick'em crowd went to the new machines. Its been at least a
year since the new machines have been installed. On any given night, the
machines sit mostly idle. If they were the same as the old machines, what
happened to all the regular players?
I can only speculate, but like me, they probably noticed their money going
straight down the tubes, so they don't play there. That's what I mean by
"they suck" Compared to what used to be.
Any Rideau Pick'em regulars out there wish to verify my experience?
Marc, without any numbers to back it up, it's very hard to accept this premise.
Quads happen on average every 2361 hands. In 23,610 hands the average number of quads is 10. 22% of the time you will have 7 or fewer quads. 21% of the time you will have 13 or more quads. 43% of the time you will be at least 3 quads away from the expected value. 3 quads different is $1800 on $168,000 coin in or over a 1% change. So, almost half the time, you will be more than 1% away from the expected value just from the quad contribution.
Long term data would be very helpful to try and prove your assertion.
···
--- In vpFREE_Canada@yahoogroups.com, "Marc Landry" <landry@...> wrote:
From: vpFREE_Canada@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE_Can…@…com]
On Behalf Of johnnyzee48127
Sent: Thursday, November 18, 2010 9:21 AM
To: vpFREE_Canada@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE_Canada] Re: Full Pay $1 Pick'Em @ Rideau Carlton
--- In vpFREE_Canada@yahoogroups.com
<mailto:vpFREE_Canada%40yahoogroups.com> , "Marc Landry" <landry@> wrote:
>
> Its random but the machines can be set to pay out 4's every 500 hands on
> average or every 5,000 hands . It is not random.
Mark, look at what you wrote. Machines are random but they can be set to pay a certain number of quads. Those 2 statements are contradictory.
Then you say they are not random.
> Do your homework. In Vegas, $1 slot machines on average return 94.5%. In Ontario its 92.5%. That difference is big.
>
>
Where are you getting the 94.5% return from dollar slots in Las Vegas? That number seems pretty low. Casino Player publishes returns for slot machines in Las Vegas and they are generally in the 97 - 98 % range.
Have you done any tracking of your play on the pick 'em machines? Quad cycle is about 2300 hands. Going 3 cycles with hitting quads will happen about 5% of the time. So, you can play 7000 hands with no quads and that is not an unusual event.
Track your play for 10,000 hands and report the results. That is still a small sample size but it will at least give you some information about the game you are playing.
Just saying the machines pay less than they used to with no evidence to back it up doesn't really mean anything.