vpFREE2 Forums

Can casinos track player error rates?

#1

Are casinos able to track VP players' error rate, in dollars per
hour, with today's technology? And are any casinos doing this and
actively using the information for mailings?

individual player results, then grew more sophisticated to tie player
activity to specific machines (e.g. differing rates of comp accrual
depending on the VP machine/paytable being played). It would seem
the next step is to actually grade the player's hold-card strategy on
a hand-by-hand basis, calculating metrics such as $X errors per hour
(or maybe a less denomination-dependent metric such as coins per
hand, a la Winpoker), and make use of this information.

For example, a lousy player whose "strategy" results in $X per hour
of errors on a 100.17% full pay DB, if the technology exists, could
still be welcomed with open arms via relatively generous comps and
cashback, while max-EV players such as ourselves could be mailed less
generous comps. (Or not mailed at all.)

Just curious to know if we are subject to being tagged as near-
optimal players, or if Big Brother has a database of VP player
profiles showing who plays the closest to optimal. Wouldn't that be
something to see! Or has the technology not evolved that far yet.

Thanks in advance.

···

From my limited experience, it seems the casinos started out tracking

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "out2222lunch" <out2222lunch@y...>
wrote:

Are casinos able to track VP players' error rate, in dollars per
hour, with today's technology? And are any casinos doing this and
actively using the information for mailings?

From my limited experience, it seems the casinos started out

tracking

individual player results, then grew more sophisticated to tie

player

activity to specific machines (e.g. differing rates of comp

accrual

depending on the VP machine/paytable being played). It would seem
the next step is to actually grade the player's hold-card strategy

on

a hand-by-hand basis, calculating metrics such as $X errors per

hour

(or maybe a less denomination-dependent metric such as coins per
hand, a la Winpoker), and make use of this information.

For example, a lousy player whose "strategy" results in $X per

hour

of errors on a 100.17% full pay DB, if the technology exists,

could

still be welcomed with open arms via relatively generous comps and
cashback, while max-EV players such as ourselves could be mailed

less

generous comps. (Or not mailed at all.)

Just curious to know if we are subject to being tagged as near-
optimal players, or if Big Brother has a database of VP player
profiles showing who plays the closest to optimal. Wouldn't that

be

something to see! Or has the technology not evolved that far yet.

Thanks in advance.

Can't give you a definitive yes or no answer since big brother
doesn't let us know these things. It would be interesting to know if
anyone who plays on a regular basis (not pro) who has noticed
anything of this nature.

I can tell you that it is possible in today's computer world for a
program such as you have described could be implemented into the
card reader.

I say we don't give the casinos any ideas of ways to improve their
bottom lines.

Paul

#3

http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt

<a href="http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt">
http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt</a>

···

On 12 Mar 2005 at 16:21, out2222lunch wrote:

Are casinos able to track VP players' error rate, in dollars per
hour, with today's technology? And are any casinos doing this and
actively using the information for mailings?

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: "vpFREE" <vpFREE@Cox.net>
Date: Tue Apr 6, 2004 8:07 pm
Subject: Casino Player Tracking Systems

#4

There is no need to track player's error rates. If you use a card
they already know your coin-in, what machines you play, when you play,
etc. If you only play over 100% machines and only on multiple point
days you may have marked yourself as an advantage player to the
casino. Some casinos might not let you play. I believe someone in
this group can verify this has already happened.

Fortunately the number of "strictly" advantage players is very small
compared to the number of players looking for better paytables, better
slot clubs, comps, etc. The casino business has a high fixed cost
-structure which means that after a certain number is reached each
additional customer's theoretical loss is almost all profit. They do
not want advantage players, but will tolerate a small number if they
can grab enough other players with their positive vp machines.

I would say the casinos have done a good job over the past few years
of reducing the advantage players edge to razor thin. If they keep
the edge thin enough to keep pros and semi-pros away, but attactive to
average and above average players they will be very profitable.

The average skill level may get too high on some positive plays and
this will probably cause the casino to make adjustments. FPDW is
pretty easy to learn, but what percent of players are playing at or
over 100%. The Palms recently reduced the number of FPDW. FPDW is
very popular so I think they want to keep a few machines, but it might
get hard to find an empty seat in the near future!

Chris

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

On 12 Mar 2005 at 16:21, out2222lunch wrote:

> Are casinos able to track VP players' error rate, in dollars per
> hour, with today's technology? And are any casinos doing this and
> actively using the information for mailings?

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...>
Date: Tue Apr 6, 2004 8:07 pm
Subject: Casino Player Tracking Systems

http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt

<a href="http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt">
http://tinyurl.com/3ytjt</a>

#5

I would argue that tracking error rates does become very important
to the casinos bottom line. It seems we recognize only two groups:
advantage players who only play the 100% and above and the
recreational player. Would argue a third category which very much
makes error rates important, lets call them advantaged recreational
players. An example.

A couple plays 25k a day over 4 days for a total coin-in of 100k on
JoB. Most casinos have an expected hold against the average player
of from 2 to 4 percent on JoB. Lets assume the lower amount.
Expected take from the couple is 2k for their stay. For comps lets
set a reasonable amount, 30 percent back so the couple can expect at
least 600 bucks in comps back (and possibly a bit more if talking
rooms if figuring even casino rate). With let us say a .02 cashback
kicking in another 200 bucks. That is a total of 800 bucks in cash
and comps leaving 1200 for the casino. Not unreasonable. Now lets
track the same couple and find that they play a solid game of JoB
with the rare small error. Expected hold now is .5 (small error
allows me to reduce to nice round number) and that translates to
only 500 bucks from this couple. Now if giving the same comps and
cashback the casino is in a theoretical hole.

I believe that the advent of cheap, powerful computers,
sophisticated software, and the ease of tracking since it is all
automatic will result in casinos further tracking players not only
by what they play but their skill at those games. With the advent
of such systems as MindPlay one can expect similiar results for
table players. We are looking at a further stratification of
players based on skill even when playing negative games.

Marc
  

There is no need to track player's error rates. If you use a card
they already know your coin-in, what machines you play, when you

play,

etc. If you only play over 100% machines and only on multiple

point

days you may have marked yourself as an advantage player to the
casino. Some casinos might not let you play. I believe someone in
this group can verify this has already happened.

Fortunately the number of "strictly" advantage players is very

small

compared to the number of players looking for better paytables,

better

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@h...> wrote:

slot clubs, comps, etc.

> Chris

#6

...

Can't give you a definitive yes or no answer since big brother
doesn't let us know these things. It would be interesting to know

if

anyone who plays on a regular basis (not pro) who has noticed
anything of this nature.

I can tell you that it is possible in today's computer world for a
program such as you have described could be implemented into the
card reader.

I say we don't give the casinos any ideas of ways to improve their
bottom lines.

Paul

I'm not aware of any system that would allow the card reader to track
error rates. Only the manufacturers, IGT, etc., would be able to do
this since they are the only one with access to each individual hand
played. When this was last discussed the primary question in my mind
was whether a manufacturer would consider this a good business case.
They would be adding a marginal business enhancement from the
casinos' viewpoint but not from the players' viewpoint.

Will it eventually happen? More likely than not.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Paul Furr" <phfurr@e...> wrote:

#7

there is a big difference in an advantage player in bj and vp...the
bj player has the potential of causing the casino some pain while
the vp player has to grind it out of them...can't imagine the casino
actually loses money on 100% vp as most players aren't that
skilled...next time you get say a wild royal with only one deuce in
fpdw ask the person next to you what you should do...they will
likely tell you to go for the royal flush...

#8

I may be wrong, but I think it was discussed on here there is a
company called Mariposa (or something like that) who does have the
software available to casinos to track errors but to no one's
knowledge has any casino installed it.

On the other hand, I don't think a casino needs to. As some have
indicated, a casino can easily look at your slot club card and see
coin-in and coin-out over a long period of time. The closer a
player plays to a game's expected win/loss would be indicative of
what kind of player that they are over the long run.

Gary

...
> Can't give you a definitive yes or no answer since big brother
> doesn't let us know these things. It would be interesting to

know

if
> anyone who plays on a regular basis (not pro) who has noticed
> anything of this nature.
>
> I can tell you that it is possible in today's computer world for

a

> program such as you have described could be implemented into the
> card reader.
>
> I say we don't give the casinos any ideas of ways to improve

their

> bottom lines.
>
>
> Paul

I'm not aware of any system that would allow the card reader to

track

error rates. Only the manufacturers, IGT, etc., would be able to

do

this since they are the only one with access to each individual

hand

played. When this was last discussed the primary question in my

mind

was whether a manufacturer would consider this a good business

case.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Paul Furr" <phfurr@e...> wrote:
They would be adding a marginal business enhancement from the
casinos' viewpoint but not from the players' viewpoint.

Will it eventually happen? More likely than not.

Dick

#9

Mariposa software is data warehousing that sits over the customer's
tracking system. Therefore, it cannot track play.

Most tracking software can't even read all the meters inside a machine and
is more comfortable in the technology of a decade ago than in modern terms.
While technically it would not be very difficult to adapt the core machines
themselves to track the play casinos would first have to get IGT and its
competitors to track this internally then convince the tracking software
vendors to add the capability to monitor this tracking in their software.
Won't happen for a long time to come, if at all.

And there is really no need from a macroeconomic standpoint to track
individual play. The ability to estimate a player's value within reasonable
error rates exists for some casinos today. Only very foolish operators
would need to be more exact.

Finally, there is a very strong need for accurate tracking software in the
pit. Subjective measuring is easily abused, just read Comp City. I have
reason to suspect that losses from overcomping equal or exceed those from
card counters. While MindPlay is cumbersome it is a beginning. Within the
next few years we will see tracking software that is unobtrusive and does
not interfere with normal play. One company has even announced the intent
to provide tracking software for the crap table. I am very skeptical but am
curious to see if it ever comes to market. The pit is the area in which
software vendors will concentrate in the near future. Big Brother won't
know how well or badly you play VP. They will, however, know WHAT you play,
an impossibility in most casinos today when you play multi-game machines.

B

···

At 10:32 AM 03/13/2005, you wrote:

I may be wrong, but I think it was discussed on here there is a
company called Mariposa (or something like that) who does have the
software available to casinos to track errors but to no one's
knowledge has any casino installed it.

On the other hand, I don't think a casino needs to. As some have
indicated, a casino can easily look at your slot club card and see
coin-in and coin-out over a long period of time. The closer a
player plays to a game's expected win/loss would be indicative of
what kind of player that they are over the long run.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

I would argue that tracking error rates does become very important
to the casinos bottom line. It seems we recognize only two

groups:

advantage players who only play the 100% and above and the
recreational player. Would argue a third category which very much
makes error rates important, lets call them advantaged recreational
players. <snip>

You make a great point, I think this third category (of which my wife
and I are members) has grown rather large with the proliferation of
the Internet and VP training software. If so, it seems only logical
that the casinos would target this group to extract higher margins.

For example I travel to Vegas once or maybe twice a year. Yet I
consider myself an informed recreational player. I am happy to get
comps/mailings on par with everyone else, i.e. for my $10K coin-in I
come out ahead by having adversely selected against the casinos as in
the example you gave. But error rates would give the casinos a way
to quickly estimate my "value" without having to track actuals which
accrue over days & weeks of play and are subject to random swings.
With the right technology in place, they could estimate my skill
level after as little as, say, 600 hands or 1 hour of single-line
play.

I speculate that the financial business case probably isn't there
(yet) to justify implementation.

Of course I could always choose to play anonymously without a players
card, but that solves their comp problem, and is probably a topic
unto itself...

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "marc33594" <marc33594@y...> wrote:

#11

There is no need to track player's error rates. If you use a card
they already know your coin-in, what machines you play, when you

play,

etc. If you only play over 100% machines and only on multiple point
days you may have marked yourself as an advantage player to the
casino. Some casinos might not let you play. I believe someone in
this group can verify this has already happened.

In Bob Dancer's March Casino Player article about progressives he
discusses whether he believes the RNG's are fair. He said,
"yes, or he wouldn't be investing millions of dollars every year
playing VP". Since every casino (surely) knows BD, know he is
strictly an advantage player, and extremely skilled, why is he still
allowed to play so heavily, year in and year out? If they allow him
to play, why would a casino worry about the error rate of their
quarter players?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@h...> wrote:

#12

Since every casino (surely) knows BD, know he is

strictly an advantage player, and extremely skilled, why is he

still

allowed to play so heavily, year in and year out? If they allow

him

to play, why would a casino worry about the error rate of their
quarter players?

Casinos also spend millions on advertising. Mr Dancer is widely
published in several popular magazines, has a whole line of books
and products geared towards VP and gives seminars and classes on the
topic. The casinos know that, despite being armed with strategy
cards and the best of intentions, once in the casino they will
revert to "gut" feelings on plays, short pay tables and somehow
forget all those lessons. In short they can afford a few Dancer's
just as they budget for advertising. Thousands of smart players
however does begin to hurt the bottom line. Mr Dancer currently
serves their purpose by advertising the game and bringing gamblers
in. This does NOT mean Mr Dancer in anyway works for them, just
that the casinos feel they can benefit from him. And, as we all
know, casinos love to advertise the winners. In VP we rarely if
ever get the huge payouts one sees in slots. One cant put up a
picture of a VP players with a 7 figure payout, especially not one
playing nickels or quarters. But they can allow a Dancer to win and
publish his books talking about his million dollar year.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

#13

Bob Dancer does not play under the name "Bob Dancer". He hopes NOT to
be recognized. He plays under his "real" name.

···

On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 04:59:33 -0000, you wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@h...> wrote:

There is no need to track player's error rates. If you use a card
they already know your coin-in, what machines you play, when you

play,

etc. If you only play over 100% machines and only on multiple point
days you may have marked yourself as an advantage player to the
casino. Some casinos might not let you play. I believe someone in
this group can verify this has already happened.

In Bob Dancer's March Casino Player article about progressives he
discusses whether he believes the RNG's are fair. He said,
"yes, or he wouldn't be investing millions of dollars every year
playing VP". Since every casino (surely) knows BD, know he is
strictly an advantage player, and extremely skilled, why is he still
allowed to play so heavily, year in and year out? If they allow him
to play, why would a casino worry about the error rate of their
quarter players?

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#14

This does NOT mean Mr Dancer in anyway works for them, just
that the casinos feel they can benefit from him. But they > can allow a

Dancer to win and

publish his books talking about his million dollar year.

Just how do the casinos ALLOW Bob to publish his books? They have nothing
to do with Bob, or anyone else publishing anything.
                                      Nudge

···

From: "marc33594" <marc33594@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can casinos track player error rates?

#15

sometimes Dancer works for the casinos
it's called Compton Dancer Consulting:
http://www.compdance.com/

Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can casinos track player error rates?

> This does NOT mean Mr Dancer in anyway works for them, just
> that the casinos feel they can benefit from him. But they > can

allow a

Dancer to win and
> publish his books talking about his million dollar year.

Just how do the casinos ALLOW Bob to publish his books? They have

nothing

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@c...> wrote:

From: "marc33594" <marc33594@y...>
to do with Bob, or anyone else publishing anything.
                                      Nudge

#16

Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Can casinos track player error rates?

> This does NOT mean Mr Dancer in anyway works for them, just
> that the casinos feel they can benefit from him. But they > can

allow a

Dancer to win and
> publish his books talking about his million dollar year.

Just how do the casinos ALLOW Bob to publish his books? They have

nothing

to do with Bob, or anyone else publishing anything.
                                      Nudge

Poor choice of words. They could of course ban him, but they dont.
A better wording would be they dont ban him from their casinos and
can take advantage of his winning and his book publications to
advertise for them on VP. The average person reading his exploits
will not do the hard work necessary to gain his success but will
flock to the casinos in an attempt to emulate him nonetheless. Once
again I apologize for a poor choice of words.

Marc

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@c...> wrote:

From: "marc33594" <marc33594@y...>

#17

It hasn't happened yet, but it's getting close to that. Most casinos use a
blended form of electronic/manual player tracking for table games, such
as Blackjack. If you vary your bet, the casino is more likely to know
about it because pit bosses watch games more often (since they no
longer have to manually fill out player ratings slips). If you make a basic
strategy error while the boss is watching (eg. stand on hard 16 vs. X),
or make an "unusual" correct play (such as hitting soft 18 vs X), the
casino is more likely to know about it.

Casinos can "probably" tell who semi-skilled video poker players are
because they:
1. play "full-pay" machines almost exclusively
2. bet maximum coins almost exclusively
3. redeem points for cash almost exclusively
etc.

Casinos haven't started barring basic strategy players from slow-paced,
low-limit BJ games yet, but I suspect that this will occur soon. I hope
this helps. Replies appreciated.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "out2222lunch"
<out2222lunch@y...> wrote:

For example, a lousy player whose "strategy" results in $X per hour
of errors on a 100.17% full pay DB, if the technology exists, could
still be welcomed with open arms via relatively generous comps and
cashback, while max-EV players such as ourselves could be mailed

less

···

generous comps. (Or not mailed at all.)

Just curious to know if we are subject to being tagged as near-
optimal players, or if Big Brother has a database of VP player
profiles showing who plays the closest to optimal. Wouldn't that be
something to see! Or has the technology not evolved that far yet.

#18

In my opinion, part of the reason that casinos bar "advantage players"
isn't so much the "damage" that they can do, but has to do with
psychological factors. For example:
1. Players who know about casinos barring advantage players are less
likely to learn basic strategy for BJ. If they "win too much", they may
fear being barred.
2. Players are more likely to play high-profit slots (where players are
NEVER barred) and stay away from low-profit table games, especially
Blackjack (where they MAY be barred).
3. Casinos want players to associate video poker with slot machine
play (where skill doesn't matter), rather than table game play (where
skill DOES matter). Hence, video poker players won't look for good
paytables (because good paytables don't matter on slot machines), and
they won't bother learning any strategy for video poker (because there
is no strategy for slot machines).

Replies appreciated.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:

there is a big difference in an advantage player in bj and vp...the
bj player has the potential of causing the casino some pain while
the vp player has to grind it out of them...can't imagine the casino
actually loses money on 100% vp as most players aren't that
skilled...next time you get say a wild royal with only one deuce in
fpdw ask the person next to you what you should do...they will
likely tell you to go for the royal flush...

#19

casinos are just greedy, they want all the money
if they tolerated some degree of winning/advantage play they would
most likely find that though they wouldn't get all the money, their
share of the pot would increase, the city of las vegas is built on
that simple fact
but casinos are just greedy, they want all the money, even if it means
it's less than if they offered some winning plays and tolerated and
even celebrated some winners
and they don't want to have to compete, which is why you now see all
the megamergers
what they don't yet realize is that their competition is
offshore/online texas hold'em, see barron's 2/21/05

>
> there is a big difference in an advantage player in bj and

vp...the

> bj player has the potential of causing the casino some pain while
> the vp player has to grind it out of them...can't imagine the

casino

> actually loses money on 100% vp as most players aren't that
> skilled...next time you get say a wild royal with only one deuce

in

> fpdw ask the person next to you what you should do...they will
> likely tell you to go for the royal flush...

In my opinion, part of the reason that casinos bar "advantage

players"

isn't so much the "damage" that they can do, but has to do with
psychological factors. For example:
1. Players who know about casinos barring advantage players are

less

likely to learn basic strategy for BJ. If they "win too much", they

may

fear being barred.
2. Players are more likely to play high-profit slots (where players

are

NEVER barred) and stay away from low-profit table games, especially
Blackjack (where they MAY be barred).
3. Casinos want players to associate video poker with slot machine
play (where skill doesn't matter), rather than table game play

(where

skill DOES matter). Hence, video poker players won't look for good
paytables (because good paytables don't matter on slot machines),

and

they won't bother learning any strategy for video poker (because

there

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "djmcosmo" <djmcosmo@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:
is no strategy for slot machines).

Replies appreciated.

#20

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

casinos are just greedy, they want all the money
if they tolerated some degree of winning/advantage play they would
most likely find that though they wouldn't get all the money, their
share of the pot would increase, the city of las vegas is built on
that simple fact
but casinos are just greedy, they want all the money, even if it

means

it's less than if they offered some winning plays and tolerated and
even celebrated some winners
and they don't want to have to compete, which is why you now see all
the megamergers
what they don't yet realize is that their competition is
offshore/online texas hold'em, see barron's 2/21/05

The slogan "What happens in LV stays in LV" should be changed
to "What's gambled in LV stays in LV"!

Still, I suspect marc32594 makes a good point that BD, with his
books, etc., helps to promote VP and create a bigger customer base.
The casinos like that idea. Plus I assume they want to avoid the bad
publicity associated with barring. I seriously doubt playing under a
different name goes unnoticed ... they know BD, no matter what name
he uses (in LV anyway).

I'm just guessing, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's told it's OK
to play at the XYZcasino at very high stakes, but not OK to do it
full time. In other words, a few hours at a time every day, then go
somewhere else. These mergers may eventually create a problem for BD
when the casinos where he wants to play are owned by the same
people.