Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0630.cfm
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A corollary?
Wasn't it Shackleford who opined: "It's not whether you win or lose, it's whether it was a good bet"?
..... bl
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Bob wrote: "When you are good, sometimes you are over-royaled and sometimes you are under-royaled, but these things eventually average out and when they do, you're going to be ahead of the game."
That's the Monte Carlo fallacy. As long as there's no regression to the mean, things don't "average out". Just because you had a bad run, you can't expect to get a good run to compensate, if you could you could double your betsize and have the best of it. What happens is, if you have an edge, that edge eventually is greater than the standard deviation. The crossover is at Nzero (variance/edge/edge hands).
Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something h...
View on en.wikiped... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
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I agree with this post in the most part except for one thing.
Bob assumes that luck will even out in the long run. I disagree.
If you buy a powerball ticket which is a dumb move, and you happen to win $150,000,000.
I posit that your luck unless you are a total moron and blow all the money can’t run out, because you scored so
high on this one event. Some people are luckier than others. I believe that skill will win out in the long run over average luck,
but if you are exceptionally lucky i.e. buying that winning lottery ticket I’ll take the luck thank you very much.
Of course no one knows if they are going to be the exceptionally lucky person, so skill is the way to go.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 1:25 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0630.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Skill and discipline will always win in the long run. I have learned to not be jealous of those who are lucky because all to often they have no skill or discipline to hang on to the big win.
The skills you need to survive a casino is:
Know how to play the games optimally,
Play where the house edge is less than 2% or better yet when you have the advantage,
Know money management. Don't play beyond your bankrolls elastic ability to handle your play.
Typically, I am a quarters player though I will play at the dollar level when a promotions puts me at the advantage play level. I am very stick about the 'no bet' on anything with a house edge of more than 2%
Skill and discipline are only important if you have an edge and you can play long enough to get to the long run. See FAQ on N0. In real life skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
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Well put!
Scot
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]
Sent: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 8:47 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Skill and discipline are only important if you have an edge and you can play
long enough to get to the long run. See FAQ on N0. In real life skill and
discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I like to think - hope - pray - that I have the appropriate skill.
But on any given day, when I sit down to play, I'll settle for the luck ; )
Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein
From: "vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 1:25 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good?
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0630.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
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rather be good, luck can take care of itself
example :2 weekends ago played 3 days of NSUD at the Reno Atlantis dollar level , about 20hrs machine time , lost $425.00 .
I NEVER got the 4 ducks or a royal and only 2 wild royals.
Per my notes ( i keep notes on the difficult hands to play, check my play to the correct play per TomSki chart)
it looks like i played at a 99.70% level . That kept the losses close to the minimum
Getting 1 hand of 4 ducks would be $575.00 profit, 3 more wild royals would have been a $50.00 loss, both would have been within the norm ,
Bad luck ? not to me, plan on playing some more NSUD in the future lol
Meanwhile , I be enjoying the free rooms , comped food, ( Atlantis has fantastic food but buffet is a b ) fine Cav and Merlot, and $100 in free play just for showing up all while playing in one of the best VP casinos in the world
KOOL !
M J
PS : thanks to 5x times points on Sun. i earned $276 in food comps on Sun alone.
.
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skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
I don't see the point of saying this. No one has any control over
luck, so, no matter how much of a factor it plays in results, it can't
be relevant.
nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:
Bob wrote: "When you are good, sometimes you are over-royaled and sometimes you are under-royaled, but these things eventually average out and when they do, you're going to be ahead of the game."
That's the Monte Carlo fallacy. As long as there's no regression to the mean, things don't "average out". Just because you had a bad run, you can't expect to get a good run to compensate
"Average out" could mean that there is a tendency towards the
compensation that you refer to or it could mean that in percentage
terms, results tend to converge to expected value. I think Bob meant
the latter. I don't think he believes in the "due theory."
mjperry -- I'll wait until you enjoy a modest run of Atlantis luck, and are subsequently restricted to a casino rate offer calendar, to see what you really think of the property 
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mjperr82@...> wrote :
Meanwhile , I be enjoying the free rooms , comped food, ( Atlantis has fantastic food but buffet is a b ) fine Cav and Merlot, and $100 in free play just for showing up all while playing in one of the best VP casinos in the world
KOOL !
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The post below identifies exactly the factors at play in what I deem my "Independence Day" turning point in my play: Grasping the reality of "N0", I became aware of how I could best structure my play so that, over the course of a year, luck was relegated to being a nominal factor in determining whether I had a winning year or not.
I became aware that sustained play with an appreciable edge and moderate variance, engaged in with considerable frequency, can indeed pretty much assure very strong likelihood of a profitable year. I haven't had to look back with regret since.
The very casual player must be resigned to luck largely ruling their play year to year. But for a determined player with steady access to strong plays, the opportunity is there to reap the rewards of advantage play with reliable consistency.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <cy4873@...> wrote :
Skill and discipline are only important if you have an edge and you can play long enough to get to the long run. See FAQ on N0. In real life skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
You’re absolutely right about the control factor, but I believe that that is the reason it is relevant, not because it is a quantitative factor like machine selection, skill, benefits etc. but because no matter how well you prepare there is always a chance, however slim that your long term results will not be as good as expected, there is also the chance that your results may be way better than expected. Perhaps that’s why they call it gambling.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Thursday, July 02, 2015 9:13 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
I don't see the point of saying this. No one has any control over
luck, so, no matter how much of a factor it plays in results, it can't
be relevant.
nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:
Bob wrote: "When you are good, sometimes you are over-royaled and sometimes you are under-royaled, but these things eventually average out and when they do, you're going to be ahead of the game."
That's the Monte Carlo fallacy. As long as there's no regression to the mean, things don't "average out". Just because you had a bad run, you can't expect to get a good run to compensate
"Average out" could mean that there is a tendency towards the
compensation that you refer to or it could mean that in percentage
terms, results tend to converge to expected value. I think Bob meant
the latter. I don't think he believes in the "due theory."
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I agree completely, very strong likelihood, of success.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Thursday, July 02, 2015 11:12 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
The post below identifies exactly the factors at play in what I deem my "Independence Day" turning point in my play: Grasping the reality of "N0", I became aware of how I could best structure my play so that, over the course of a year, luck was relegated to being a nominal factor in determining whether I had a winning year or not.
I became aware that sustained play with an appreciable edge and moderate variance, engaged in with considerable frequency, can indeed pretty much assure very strong likelihood of a profitable year. I haven't had to look back with regret since.
The very casual player must be resigned to luck largely ruling their play year to year. But for a determined player with steady access to strong plays, the opportunity is there to reap the rewards of advantage play with reliable consistency.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <cy4873@...> wrote :
Skill and discipline are only important if you have an edge and you can play long enough to get to the long run. See FAQ on N0. In real life skill and discipline are often small factors compared to random events/luck.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Youre absolutely right about the control factor, but I believe that that is the reason it is relevant, not because it is a quantitative factor like machine selection, skill, benefits etc. but because no matter how well you prepare there is always a chance, however slim that your long term results will not be as good as expected, there is also the chance that your results may be way better than expected. Perhaps thats why they call it gambling.
Regards
A.P.
I might have objected to the wrong statement, which I may have
confused with such statements as "I'd rather be lucky than good."
Understanding how fluctuation affects results is valuable, but I don't
see what action the statement "results are the only thing that matter"
recommends.
I am not recommending any action. My only point in all of my posts on this subject is that nothing you do will guarantee a win. All you can do is make it highly likely that you will win, if you do everything right.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Friday, July 03, 2015 11:20 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
Youre absolutely right about the control factor, but I believe that that is the reason it is relevant, not because it is a quantitative factor like machine selection, skill, benefits etc. but because no matter how well you prepare there is always a chance, however slim that your long term results will not be as good as expected, there is also the chance that your results may be way better than expected. Perhaps thats why they call it gambling.
Regards
A.P.
I might have objected to the wrong statement, which I may have
confused with such statements as "I'd rather be lucky than good."
Understanding how fluctuation affects results is valuable, but I don't
see what action the statement "results are the only thing that matter"
recommends.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
"I am not recommending any action. My only point in all of my posts on this subject is that nothing you do will guarantee a win. All you can do is make it highly likely that you will win, if you do everything right."
"Highly likely?" Uh, how about more likely or most likely?
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This is ridiculous. If you put in 10 million hands with a 2% EV on a game with 28 variance the only way you ain't gonna win is if you continuously get robbed in the parking lot. Guaranteed!
My advice? Buy a gun.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ehpee@...> wrote :
I am not recommending any action. My only point in all of my posts on this subject is that nothing you do will guarantee a win. All you can do is make it highly likely that you will win, if you do everything right.
Regards
A.P.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Sure.
Regards
A.P.
From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Friday, July 03, 2015 9:15 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015
"I am not recommending any action. My only point in all of my posts on this subject is that nothing you do will guarantee a win. All you can do is make it highly likely that you will win, if you do everything right."
"Highly likely?" Uh, how about more likely or most likely?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
bobbartop wrote: "This is ridiculous. If you put in 10 million hands with a 2% EV on a game with 28 variance the only way you ain't gonna win is if you continuously get robbed in the parking lot. Guaranteed!"
2% EV with 28 variance has a pretty nice N0 of 28/.02/.02 = 70,000 hands, so 10 million hands would be almost 143 N0 cycles. There's always a little tail of black swans, but once you get beyond 25N0 it's almost a sure thing, at least your odds of losing are probably less than the odds of getting cheated or robbed in the parking lot or your hotel room.
at N0 (1sd) there is a 15.87% chance of losing
at 4N0 (2sd) there is a 2.28% chance of losing
at 9N0 (3sd) there is a 0.13% chance of losing
at 16N0 (4sd) there is a 0.0032% chance of losing
at 25N0 (5sd) there is a 0.00003% chance of losing
68–95–99.7 rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule
68–95–99.7 rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule In statistics, the so-called 68–95–99.7 rule is a shorthand used to remember the percentage of values that lie within a band around the mean in a normal...
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