vpFREE2 Forums

Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

#21

The really big trick is finding a game that’s got a 2% E.V.

Regards
A.P.

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Sent: Saturday, July 04, 2015 3:13 PM
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Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

bobbartop wrote: "This is ridiculous. If you put in 10 million hands with a 2% EV on a game with 28 variance the only way you ain't gonna win is if you continuously get robbed in the parking lot. Guaranteed!"

2% EV with 28 variance has a pretty nice N0 of 28/.02/.02 = 70,000 hands, so 10 million hands would be almost 143 N0 cycles. There's always a little tail of black swans, but once you get beyond 25N0 it's almost a sure thing, at least your odds of losing are probably less than the odds of getting cheated or robbed in the parking lot or your hotel room.

at N0 (1sd) there is a 15.87% chance of losing
at 4N0 (2sd) there is a 2.28% chance of losing
at 9N0 (3sd) there is a 0.13% chance of losing
at 16N0 (4sd) there is a 0.0032% chance of losing
at 25N0 (5sd) there is a 0.00003% chance of losing

68–95–99.7 rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

68–95–99.7 rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule In statistics, the so-called 68–95–99.7 rule is a shorthand used to remember the percentage of values that lie within a band around the mean in a normal...

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#22

<ehpee@...> wrote :

The really big trick is finding a game that’s got a 2% E.V.

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Tell me about it ...

Three years ago I found a dream $1 single-line bank, modest variance, 2%+ play that was entirely off the "pro" radar. (While the bank was listed in vpFREE, it seemed that the promotional value of the play was undervalued by most.)

The bank was hit pretty hard, but aside from myself, active play was largely restricted to a select set of reasonably knowledgeable retirees (many of whom preferred the less optimal game option of DDB).

I went out of my way to curtail play, not wanting to risk outplaying my welcome. (I restricted play to one monthly 3-day visit, averaging 10 visits a year ... of the 3 years I played, my worst annual outcome was a $6k profit during a royal-less year against something like 3 cycles of play that year.)

The casino finally pulled the plug on the play this year. Remaining gaming options may offer a breakeven opportunity, at best. Oddly, I now find myself no-mailed and denied a room (even at casino rate!)

- H.

From: mailto:vpF…@…com
Sent: Saturday, July 04, 2015 3:13 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpF…@…com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 30 JUN 2015

bobbartop wrote: "This is ridiculous. If you put in 10 million hands with a 2% EV on a game with 28 variance the only way you ain't gonna win is if you continuously get robbed in the parking lot. Guaranteed!"

2% EV with 28 variance has a pretty nice N0 of 28/.02/.02 = 70,000 hands, so 10 million hands would be almost 143 N0 cycles. There's always a little tail of black swans, but once you get beyond 25N0 it's almost a sure thing, at least your odds of losing are probably less than the odds of getting cheated or robbed in the parking lot or your hotel room.

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