Short-Run Bankroll Calculations
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This link is posted for informational purposes and doesn't
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in accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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<<There are charts you can consult that will give you some numbers for a few games (one good source is Michael Shackleford's www.wizardofodds.com Web site, and some of Shackleford's calculations are included in Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht's Frugal Video Poker). But any time you want to look at a game that isn't included in these charts, you're left high and dry. Furthermore, these sources consider single-line games only. Fact is, there simply hasn't been a way to get this information easily for Triple Play, Five Play, Ten Play, or Spin Poker.>>
I am not negatively criticizing VPW - it is a good VP software program. However, I do want to point out that the Frugal VP software has ALWAYS had a feature that you could use to estimate short-term bankroll needs. And the book, Frugal Video Poker, besides giving the short-term bankroll needs in charts for 8 common games, shows (in Chapter 10) how you can estimate the short-term bankroll you need for ALMOST ANY game, INCLUDING 3/5/10-play machines.
And this bankroll feature has a neat - and, in my opinion, a very valuable - presentation. It uses a volatility graph that visually shows you the ups and downs you might encounter in whatever session length you choose. There is nothing but scary experience to help you REALLY comprehend the "unbelievable" extreme losing streaks you WILL experience the longer you play VP. Numbers are valuable to help you plan your financial bankroll. But the picture of these volatility charts that FVP produces when you do your simulations will go a long way to help you prepare yourself for the psychological bankroll required. It's one thing to know that you need $5000 to be pretty sure you can last one 4-hour session for a particular game. Volatility charts will show you how many times during that session you might get close to losing that amount.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
frugal products are now available at my
new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
E-mail address is queenofcomps@cox.net.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I agree that the volatility charts in FVP are very useful. I would
find them more useful, however, if I could send the data from the
chart to a spreadsheet or text file so I could play with the numbers.
While we're on the topic, and now that there is a new program
available, what features would everyone like to see in a VP program.
Sure it should have the obvious, like being able to play all the
available games, and be able to adjust the paytables. And strategy
chart generators are useful. What else would this group put on the
wish list?
- John
<<There are charts you can consult that will give you some numbers
for a few games (one good source is Michael Shackleford's
www.wizardofodds.com Web site, and some of Shackleford's calculations
are included in Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht's Frugal Video Poker). But
any time you want to look at a game that isn't included in these
charts, you're left high and dry. Furthermore, these sources consider
single-line games only. Fact is, there simply hasn't been a way to get
this information easily for Triple Play, Five Play, Ten Play, or Spin
Poker.>>
I am not negatively criticizing VPW - it is a good VP software
program. However, I do want to point out that the Frugal VP software
has ALWAYS had a feature that you could use to estimate short-term
bankroll needs. And the book, Frugal Video Poker, besides giving the
short-term bankroll needs in charts for 8 common games, shows (in
Chapter 10) how you can estimate the short-term bankroll you need for
ALMOST ANY game, INCLUDING 3/5/10-play machines.
And this bankroll feature has a neat - and, in my opinion, a very
valuable - presentation. It uses a volatility graph that visually
shows you the ups and downs you might encounter in whatever session
length you choose. There is nothing but scary experience to help you
REALLY comprehend the "unbelievable" extreme losing streaks you WILL
experience the longer you play VP. Numbers are valuable to help you
plan your financial bankroll. But the picture of these volatility
charts that FVP produces when you do your simulations will go a long
way to help you prepare yourself for the psychological bankroll
required. It's one thing to know that you need $5000 to be pretty
sure you can last one 4-hour session for a particular game.
Volatility charts will show you how many times during that session you
might get close to losing that amount.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "queenofcomps" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
frugal products are now available at my
new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
E-mail address is queenofcomps@...[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFae6128305" <vpfae6128305@...>
wrote:
Short-Run Bankroll Calculations
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/yff27w">
http://tinyurl.com/yff27w</a>************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes and doesn't
constitute an endorsement or approval of the linked article's
content by vpFREE. Any discussion of the article must be done
in accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.************************************************
If the casino in question only Pick-em or Double Joker games you
would be out of luck. Please come up with a software revision to
include those games. Thank You.
While we're on the topic, and now that there is a new program
available, what features would everyone like to see in a VP
program.
Sure it should have the obvious, like being able to play all the
available games, and be able to adjust the paytables. And strategy
chart generators are useful. What else would this group put on the
wish list?- John
Since I'm infamiliar with some of the latest VP software, these
suggestions may already be implemented.
1. A way to analyze Multistrike with RF progressives at each level.
That is, to determine the return/variance, and the strategy at each
level. Also, is maximizing the return at each level appropriate?
This is the objective of VP software as far as I know. Perhaps
this "goal" should be adjusted to maximize the odds of getting to the
next level. For example, it may be better to drop a low pair in
favor of 2 face cards, in terms of getting to the next level.
2. A way to specify what's included (or prevented) on the deal. I'm
referring here to Ace on the Deal and Deuce on the Deal, where an Ace
or Deuce is always included on the deal. There should also be the
ability to compute the return for games like this, and the strategy.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "murphyfields" <jkludge@...> wrote:
Not just specific cards, but types of hands. For instance, it could let you
practice random SF3s for your chosen game.
When I was learning KBJW, I told WinPoker to deal me the Joker every hand
and I practiced until the mid card holds were second nature (for the most
part).
When I was learning DB, I told it to deal me an ace with an offsuit Jack
every hand until I internalized the penalty card rules.
While that worked, it would be better and more flexible if instead of
specifying the cards, I could pick situations to practice.
Add 3. A plain language explanation of the error you made - like "You have
a flush penalty card, so you should hold..."
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
On 11/29/06, brumar_lv <brumar_lv@yahoo.com> wrote:
> 2. A way to specify what's included (or prevented) on the deal.
If somebody came up with a way of generating strategy charts and games for any game out there,
I would buy it in a second. I'd love to create a full strategy chart for 1 eyed jacks .
Regards
A.P.
----- Original Message ----- From: "murphyfields" <jkludge@juno.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 2:50 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] VP program wish list--- Was: Bob Dancer's CasinoGaming Column - 28 NOV 2006
While we're on the topic, and now that there is a new program
available, what features would everyone like to see in a VP program.
Sure it should have the obvious, like being able to play all the
available games, and be able to adjust the paytables. And strategy
chart generators are useful. What else would this group put on the
wish list?
- John
Albert Pearson wrote:
If somebody came up with a way of generating strategy charts and
games for any game out there, I would buy it in a second. I'd love
to create a full strategy chart for 1 eyed jacks .
I'm speaking from what at best is a bit of educated speculation, but I
sense the challenge is primarily in arriving at a decent
categorization of possible holds into subsets that have have broadly
similar EV's and aren't unduly complicated by the possible presence of
penalty cards. I'm talking about the 3SF/1HC type of categories that
are used to develop strategy cards.
This isn't a small challenge. When you have multiple games that share
a common structure, (e.g. JB games, Joker games, DW, etc) you have the
advantage that once you perfect a method (strategy engine?) for one
game it tends to lend itself to games of similar type. However, where
a game stands alone, such as OEJ, you're talking about a labor of love
that has little, if any, carryover to any other game.
Thus, no one has been motivated to commercially tackle a OEJ strategy
generator. It's my guess that the closest people have come to
developing strategies for their own use has been through trial and
error development using Steve Jacobs vpfreebie demo, which will
properly evaluate hold EV's for any given hand of the game (since it
is very versatile in defining wild cards).
- Harry
Re: VP program wish list--- Was: Bob Dancer's CasinoGaming Column - 28
NOV 2006
Harry:
Some interesting points. I seems like there are a small number of
"common structures."
First, neglecting Pick'm, MS, etc. and focusing on just basic VP, you
have :
52 cards, no wilds
52 cards, some of which are wild (DW, 7W, OEJ)
52 non-wild cards + wild Jokers
52 cards (some wild) + wild jokers
Are there others I am missing?
Also, with the 3SF/1HC categories, Lotspiech came up with a clever VP
"language" for defining hands in a strategy table. I think it can
even handle penalty situations. It may not be perfect for all
situations (such as where sequence is important, as in sequential
royals), but with a little tweaking it could be very useful.
I would love to be able to play with custom strategies. And if the
language could be designed properly, it might be possible to request
hands of a certain type for practice.
- John
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
Albert Pearson wrote:
> If somebody came up with a way of generating strategy charts and
> games for any game out there, I would buy it in a second. I'd love
> to create a full strategy chart for 1 eyed jacks .I'm speaking from what at best is a bit of educated speculation, but I
sense the challenge is primarily in arriving at a decent
categorization of possible holds into subsets that have have broadly
similar EV's and aren't unduly complicated by the possible presence of
penalty cards. I'm talking about the 3SF/1HC type of categories that
are used to develop strategy cards.This isn't a small challenge. When you have multiple games that share
a common structure, (e.g. JB games, Joker games, DW, etc) you have the
advantage that once you perfect a method (strategy engine?) for one
game it tends to lend itself to games of similar type. However, where
a game stands alone, such as OEJ, you're talking about a labor of love
that has little, if any, carryover to any other game.Thus, no one has been motivated to commercially tackle a OEJ strategy
generator. It's my guess that the closest people have come to
developing strategies for their own use has been through trial and
error development using Steve Jacobs vpfreebie demo, which will
properly evaluate hold EV's for any given hand of the game (since it
is very versatile in defining wild cards).- Harry
murphyfields wrote:
Some interesting points. I seems like there are a small number of
"common structures."
I'll largely leave further comment re vp strategy generation to others
who are far more experienced in the subject.
However, I'll briefly note that the strategy engine to analyze a game
like one-eyed jacks (where a card serves double duty in its natural
role as well as its wild one - RF hand being most notable) is uniquely
different from other wild card games such as Joker's wild -- or Deuces
wild, for that matter.
No doubt such an engine can be developed. However, unlike one for JW
or DW, or for a JB-type came, such an engine doesn't extend itself to
a number of games of similar type. Further, OEJ's games are
relatively few and far between -- particularly those with strong
paytables. The consequence is that the effort that would go into
developing such an engine would have relatively limited application.
Bottom line is that there are a large number of other analytic
explorations that have greater payback. To my knowledge, no one to
date has been motivated to put the effort into an engine that can
analyze any OEJ paytable. The same is true for a good number of other
uniquely featured games.
- Harry
No excuse not having DJW and OEJ, both IGT games with several
different programs. Hopefully, there will be a patch coming soon.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
murphyfields wrote:
> Some interesting points. I seems like there are a small number of
> "common structures."I'll largely leave further comment re vp strategy generation to others
who are far more experienced in the subject.However, I'll briefly note that the strategy engine to analyze a game
like one-eyed jacks (where a card serves double duty in its natural
role as well as its wild one - RF hand being most notable) is uniquely
different from other wild card games such as Joker's wild -- or Deuces
wild, for that matter.
___________________________________________________________________________
paladingamingllc wrote:
No excuse not having DJW and OEJ, both IGT games with several
different programs. Hopefully, there will be a patch coming soon.
Well, I have to expect that the OEJ strategy engine is a bit of a
labor. But that's speculation (one that I considered supported by Jim
Wolf's FVP omission of the game as well -- he displayed a passion in
game design that would only permit that exclusion if it were rather
exceptionally troublesome relative to what is gained from it).
And I think the designers were loathe to include a game for practice
without the accompanying strategy generator.
However, I'm very disappointed with the exclusion of DJW from the
software. While perhaps more prevalent in AC than elsewhere, it's far
from obscure.
- H.
Harry,
Jim Wolf's beta program does have OEJ and DJW.
5-card
_____
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
Well, I have to expect that the OEJ strategy engine is a bit of a
labor. But that's speculation (one that I considered supported by Jim
Wolf's FVP omission of the game as well -- he displayed a passion in
game design that would only permit that exclusion if it were rather
exceptionally troublesome relative to what is gained from it).
And I think the designers were loathe to include a game for practice
without the accompanying strategy generator.
However, I'm very disappointed with the exclusion of DJW from the
software. While perhaps more prevalent in AC than elsewhere, it's far
from obscure.
- H.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Jean wrote: And the book, Frugal Video Poker, besides giving the
short-term bankroll needs in charts for 8 common games, shows (in
Chapter 10) how you can estimate the short-term bankroll you need for
ALMOST ANY game, INCLUDING 3/5/10-play machines.
Really? I didn't recall seeing any mention of 3/5/10 Play machines in
that chapter. I went back and re-read the chapter twice and am still
unable to find the reference. Please tell us the page number and
approximate position on the page where such information is found.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com
The vpfreebie program I used was great for getting a feel for OEJs but
it simply is not a good tool to come up with a strategy. Especially
with all the penalty card situation in OEJs. Without a single hand
analysis tool creating an accurate OEJS strategy by hand would be
painstakingly difficult. On the other hand, I know of an individual who
created one with a calculator.
Dick
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
Thus, no one has been motivated to commercially tackle a OEJ strategy
generator. It's my guess that the closest people have come to
developing strategies for their own use has been through trial and
error development using Steve Jacobs vpfreebie demo, which will
properly evaluate hold EV's for any given hand of the game (since it
is very versatile in defining wild cards).
I had written: "And the book, Frugal Video Poker, besides giving the
short-term bankroll needs in charts for 8 common games, shows (in
Chapter 10) how you can estimate the short-term bankroll you need for
ALMOST ANY game, INCLUDING 3/5/10-play machines."
Bob Dancer wrote: <<Really? I didn't recall seeing any mention of 3/5/10 Play machines in
that chapter. I went back and re-read the chapter twice and am still
unable to find the reference. Please tell us the page number and
approximate position on the page where such information is found.>>
Really! Go to page 105, paragraph that starts at the bottom of the page where Viktor wrote: << "Multi-play" is an option you definitely want to use if you're going to play multi-line (3/5/10-play) machines. The increased number of lines makes these games more fun for most people, but they're also much more volatile in the short term. Setting this option when you simulate your sessions gives you a much more accurate picture of the session bankroll needed. Chapter 15 covers multi-line play in detail.>>
And if you go to Chapter 15 (Playing Multi-Line Games), page 162, this same information is given.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
frugal products are now available at my
new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
E-mail address is queenofcomps@cox.net.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Jean wrote: Really! Go to page 105, paragraph that starts at the bottom
of the page where Viktor wrote: << "Multi-play" is an option you
definitely want to use if you're going to play multi-line (3/5/10-play)
machines. The increased number of lines makes these games more fun for
most people, but they're also much more volatile in the short term.
Setting this option when you simulate your sessions gives you a much
more accurate picture of the session bankroll needed. Chapter 15 covers
multi-line play in detail.>>
Page 105-106 gives no bankroll information at all about 3/5/10
Play. All Chapter 15 says is "most experts agree you need 1.5 to 2 times
the single line bankroll for Triple Play . . ." And then similar rules
of thumb for Five Play and Ten Play. This is hardly "in detail". This is
an estimate that is sometimes incorrect --- depending on the game.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com
I thought the situation was just the opposite, i.e., a multi-line game
decreases the volatility, for the same "cost per pull".
My understanding, for instance, is that 4-line quarters is less
volatile that 1 line dollars (for exactly the same game and paytable,
that is).
.....bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:
Jean wrote:
"most experts agree you need 1.5 to 2 times
the single line bankroll for Triple Play . . ." And then similar
rules
of thumb for Five Play and Ten Play.
OK! It is also true that 1 "pull" of triple play dollars is more
volatile that 3 "pulls" of single line dollars, even though both
require $15 coin-in.
The idea is that, when you play multiple-lines, you must decrease
the "cost per line" accordingly to get the reduction in volatility.
.....bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@...>
wrote:
I thought the situation was just the opposite, i.e., a multi-line
game
decreases the volatility, for the same "cost per pull".
My understanding, for instance, is that 4-line quarters is less
volatile that 1 line dollars (for exactly the same game and
paytable,
that is).
.....bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@> wrote:
>
> Jean wrote:
> "most experts agree you need 1.5 to 2 times
> the single line bankroll for Triple Play . . ." And then similar
> rules
> of thumb for Five Play and Ten Play.
Bornloser wrote: OK! It is also true that 1 "pull" of triple play
dollars is more
volatile that 3 "pulls" of single line dollars, even though both
require $15 coin-in.
The idea is that, when you play multiple-lines, you must decrease
the "cost per line" accordingly to get the reduction in volatility.
Correct, to a degree. And standard deviation or variance are the usual
measures for this. And these measures for 3/5/10 Play are found in VPW
and not easily available elsewhere. VPW also includes all of the
convolutions (i.e. the possible outcomes) for these games, as well as
Spin Poker. 3/5/10 Play bankroll figures are not a simple multiple of
single=line. Consider the following number of convolutions in 9/6 Jacks
(a simple game) and 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus (a not-so-simple
game).
Number of Possible Convolutions
9/6 JoB 8/5 SDDB
Single Line 10 12
Triple Play 114 235
Five Play 406 1,156
Ten Play 2,011 5,075
Spin Poker 1,590 4,275
Other than a confusing and misleading "1.5 to 2 times the volatility"
statement, this is not discussed in Jean's book at all --- which in and
of itself is not a crime. No book on any subject can cover everything.
Where my beef is with Jean on this is that when I tell people how this
information is available on VPW, Jean asserts that it's in her book as
well. And it isn't. I don't know whether she's intentionally misleading
people on this to increase sales or simply doesn't understand what her
co-author wrote.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com