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Bob Dancer's CasinoGaming Column - 2 MAY 2006

#1

Another Interesting Strategy Problem

http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2006/0502.html

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http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2006/0502.html</a>

···

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#2

"Casinos are tightening games and withdrawing benefits right and left.
Players who only know one game or one way to play "winning video poker"
find it tough to adjust."

···

------------------

Am I glad to see Bob's column mentioning this!
Believe it or not...

Have doubts? and an hour or two to kill?
Try this at The Palms or other casinos:
- Watch/observe (u don't have to play) the bank of .25 10/6 DDB and pay
attention to the frequency of "quads" and "full houses" being hit
- Move over to the bank of .25 9/6 DDB and do the same thing

For what I observed (coincidence or not) before, at least a couple of
times, the "quads" and "full houses" are being hit more often in
the .25 9/6 DDB.

Sure it's random. But to me, a small change in the program that
produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of 81
(Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
games" thing.

#3

Am I just being naive, or isn't this "small change in program" illegal in LV VP?

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

But to me, a small change in the program that
produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of 81
(Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
games" thing.

#4

Yes, of course it is. Gilbert's paranoia is common but the program
does not produce "full houses" every 85 draws, the probability curve
does that, on average, over the long run. The machines deal cards
from a 52-card deck with every card having an equal chance to appear.
The pay table has no effect on this.

···

At 10:18 AM 5/3/2006, you wrote:

Am I just being naive, or isn't this "small change in program"
illegal in LV VP?

.....bl

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:
>
> But to me, a small change in the program that
> produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of 81
> (Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
> games" thing.

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Of course it is illegal!
One does not have to drink Evian to figure it out.
Noone will ever complain when s/he is sitting/playing on a 10/6 DDB
right?
But as soon as the Pay Schedule is reduced to say 9/5 from 10/6, then
you'll hear it loud and clear from many players.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@...>
wrote:

Am I just being naive, or isn't this "small change in program"

illegal in LV VP?

···

.....bl

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@> wrote:
>
> But to me, a small change in the program that
> produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of 81
> (Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
> games" thing.

#6

As luck would have it, my company needs me to attend a meeting in France, the 17-18-19th of this month in.....Nice, France. Actually, the meeting is bit closer to Cannes, where the Film Festival starts on the 16th. They have even agreed to fly me over a day early and let me stay throught the weekend to have some fun.... Dame the things we have to do for our jobs! <G>

  Anyway, any suggestions on gambling in the area of either Cannes or Nice?

Thanks,
Fred, Atlanta

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

IMO, I doubt that this is what Bob meant by "tightening games". I
assume he was implying that the pay schedules have been downgraded,
and the full-pay and 100%+ VP has been selectively weeded out. I
think that is quite obvious to most of us that play regularly. I
don't think that he was alluding to the possibility of "fewer FH's"
in the program.

Bob, do you care to comment?

-Babe-

···

==================================================
Bob Dancer wrote: "Casinos are tightening games and withdrawing
benefits right and left. Players who only know one game or one way to
play "winning video poker" find it tough to adjust."

-In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

Am I glad to see Bob's column mentioning this! .............

........Sure it's random. But to me, a small change in the program
that produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of 81
(Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
games" thing.

#8

Babe wrote: IMO, I doubt that this is what Bob meant by "tightening
games". I
assume he was implying that the pay schedules have been downgraded,
and the full-pay and 100%+ VP has been selectively weeded out.

Mostly I agree with Babe's interpretaion --- although the 100% VP games
are a luxury only afforded to low-stakes players. I was including
downgrading such games as NSU (which is neither full pay nor 100%) ---
either by changing pay tables, not making them eligible for certain
promotions, or changing theoreticals so that it is no longer profitable
to play. There's a LOT more to winning VP than "full pay and 100%"
games.

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Thanks Bob, for your quick response.

Of course I totally agree with your assessment. I should have
mentioned the tightening or total withdrawal of BBC, CB, FP & comps,
when playing a machine with a low theoretical hold.

Certainly, these factors contribute greatly to the overall advantage
that all AP players constantly seek.

-Babe-

···

=====================================================
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:

Mostly I agree with Babe's interpretaion --- although the 100% VP
games are a luxury only afforded to low-stakes players. I was
including downgrading such games as NSU (which is neither full pay
nor 100%) -- either by changing pay tables, not making them eligible
for certain promotions, or changing theoreticals so that it is no
longer profitable to play. There's a LOT more to winning VP
than "full pay and 100%" games.
Bob Dancer

#10

In line with these comments, I am just curious if anyone else has
noticed or has some definite information. On our most recent trip to
LV this past weekend, I ran some short tests and it appeared as if the
two 10-line JOB's (quarters) at LVH seem to have a significantly
lesser "return" on "comp dollars" earned, than the 0.4% advertised.
Is this the general consensus and does anyone know when they
were "shorted"? I also noticed that even though, in the past, these
machines were heavily used, I saw hardly anyone using them this trip.

On a positive note, the dollar NSUD's in the LVH sports book and the
new dollar 9/6 JOB's nearby still seem to have the 0.4% return. Can
anyone else confirm this?

I was also happy to see that the dollar NSUD's do not "lock up" any
longer for a "manual pay" when you hit 4 deuces.

Thanks.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:

I was including
downgrading such games as NSU (which is neither full pay nor 100%) --

-

either by changing pay tables, not making them eligible for certain
promotions, or changing theoreticals so that it is no longer

profitable

to play. There's a LOT more to winning VP than "full pay and 100%"
games.

Bob Dancer

#11

bornloser1537 wrote:

On our most recent trip to LV this past weekend, I ran some short
tests and it appeared as if the two 10-line JOB's (quarters) at LVH
seem to have a significantly lesser "return" on "comp dollars"
earned, than the 0.4% advertised.
Is this the general consensus and does anyone know when they
were "shorted"?

My recollection from our Oct. visit was that cb/cd on the 10-plays
were reduced, with a combined rate of no more than .25% (perhaps less).

On a positive note, the dollar NSUD's in the LVH sports book and the
new dollar 9/6 JOB's nearby still seem to have the 0.4% return. Can
anyone else confirm this?

Sounds about right.

- H.

#12

Thank you, Harry. That is definitely in keeping with my brief examination of the return of
the LVH 10-line JOB this past weekend. I came up with something like a 0.17% return.
The slight discrepancy (from your 0.25%) might just be "small number statistics"
associated with my very brief test.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

bornloser1537 wrote:
> On our most recent trip to LV this past weekend, I ran some short
> tests and it appeared as if the two 10-line JOB's (quarters) at LVH
> seem to have a significantly lesser "return" on "comp dollars"
> earned, than the 0.4% advertised.

My recollection from our Oct. visit was that cb/cd on the 10-plays
were reduced, with a combined rate of no more than .25% (perhaps less).

- H.

#13

bornloser1537 wrote:

That is definitely in keeping with my brief examination of the
return of the LVH 10-line JOB this past weekend. I came up with
something like a 0.17% return. The slight discrepancy (from your
0.25%) might just be "small number statistics" associated with my
very brief test.

I wrote off the cuff without digging back to 6 mo. old notes. I
likely should have left confirmation to a more frequent/recent visitor.

- H.

#14

I see your point here Babe!!! :>
Whenever I walk by those 4 remaining 100%/FullPay/Positive machines
at The Wynn waving at me as if saying "Come sit down and play,
please, please." plus that bank of 10/6 DDB machines right in front
of the Green Valley Buffet, I should remind myself "This is where
Babe and company play regularly and of course, win regularly.".

hmmmmm....but why are these machines usually empty lately (as
compared to during the grand opening days)??? Absolutely NO
downgrade in the pay schedules seen.
Are these people here going blind by playing the non-fullpay machines
instead?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackessiebabe" <jackessiebabe@...>
wrote:

IMO, I doubt that this is what Bob meant by "tightening games". I
assume he was implying that the pay schedules have been downgraded,
and the full-pay and 100%+ VP has been selectively weeded out. I
think that is quite obvious to most of us that play regularly. I
don't think that he was alluding to the possibility of "fewer FH's"
in the program.

Bob, do you care to comment?

-Babe-

Bob Dancer wrote: "Casinos are tightening games and withdrawing
benefits right and left. Players who only know one game or one way

to

play "winning video poker" find it tough to adjust."

Am I glad to see Bob's column mentioning this! .............

........Sure it's random. But to me, a small change in the program
that produces "full houses" every 85 draws (Program B) instead of

81

···

-In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@> wrote:
(Program A), for example, can easily qualify for that "tightening
games" thing.

#15

Hi Gilbert,

I don't wish to be impolite, or question your basic premise, but a)
I NEVER play with much "company"........I'm a solitary (by choice)
VP player and b) I've never set foot in either Wynn or GVR! I'm
always MEANING to get to one or the other, but some machine or other
always engages me in a fight-to-the-finish struggle for my bankroll,
and I don't make it out of my host casino.

If I ever DO manage to get to Wynn (most probably when EH is with me
and drags me to the Strip) I will most assuredly play those "100%/
Full/Pay/Positive machines, if they are still available.

Why these lovely machines are not being played is a puzzlement to
me. Perhaps we can attribute this to the fact that the denom.
is too low for the pros, and that the tourists don't know any
better. Why the local "fleas" are ignoring them (if indeed they are)
is certainly an enigma to me.

However, no matter what the reason may be, I am quite confident that
it is not to due to some nefarious machinations on the part of the
casino, causing non-randomness or "sub-programs".

My opinion may be somewhat skewed in this direction because,
overall, I've been at least a modest winner at that end of each and
every year for the last 10 years.

Coincidentally or not, I started winning when the original strategy
cards and software came on the market, and I was able to practice
proper play, at home, before hitting the casino.

I hope that you are seeing lots of royals, no matter what or where
you are playing.

-Babe-

···

============================================================
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

I see your point here Babe!!! :> Whenever I walk by those 4
remaining 100%/FullPay/Positive machines at The Wynn waving at me
as if saying "Come sit down and play, please, please." plus that
bank of 10/6 DDB machines right in front of the Green Valley Buffet,
I should remind myself "This is where Babe and company play
regularly and of course, win regularly.".......................

hmmmmm....but why are these machines usually empty lately (as
compared to during the grand opening days)??? Absolutely NO
downgrade in the pay schedules seen............

#16

yes! even when i was at binnion's,hardly anyone
playing them!

···

--- gilbert_616 <gilbert_616@yahoo.com> wrote:

I see your point here Babe!!! :>
Whenever I walk by those 4 remaining
100%/FullPay/Positive machines
at The Wynn waving at me as if saying "Come sit down
and play,
please, please." plus that bank of 10/6 DDB machines
right in front
of the Green Valley Buffet, I should remind myself
"This is where
Babe and company play regularly and of course, win
regularly.".

hmmmmm....but why are these machines usually empty
lately (as
compared to during the grand opening days)???
Absolutely NO
downgrade in the pay schedules seen.
Are these people here going blind by playing the
non-fullpay machines
instead?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackessiebabe"
<jackessiebabe@...>
wrote:
>
> IMO, I doubt that this is what Bob meant by
"tightening games". I
> assume he was implying that the pay schedules have
been downgraded,
> and the full-pay and 100%+ VP has been selectively
weeded out. I
> think that is quite obvious to most of us that
play regularly. I
> don't think that he was alluding to the
possibility of "fewer FH's"
> in the program.
>
> Bob, do you care to comment?
>
> -Babe-
> ==================================================
> Bob Dancer wrote: "Casinos are tightening games
and withdrawing
> benefits right and left. Players who only know
one game or one way
to
> play "winning video poker" find it tough to
adjust."
>

> -In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616"
<gilbert_616@> wrote:
>
> Am I glad to see Bob's column mentioning this!
.............
>
> ........Sure it's random. But to me, a small
change in the program
> that produces "full houses" every 85 draws
(Program B) instead of
81
> (Program A), for example, can easily qualify for
that "tightening
> games" thing.
>

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#17

My estimate is that at least 90% of VP players are quite content to
play non-fullpay machines. As a daily player, I see this every day,
regardless of what casino I am in. I can only conclude that these
players are just not aware of the paytables, which I guess is fine for
the rest of us. And since I play mainly at so-called "locals" casinos,
it would seem that most "locals" are not as savvy as most out of
towners might think.

I see your point here Babe!!! :>
Whenever I walk by those 4 remaining 100%/FullPay/Positive machines
at The Wynn waving at me as if saying "Come sit down and play,
please, please." plus that bank of 10/6 DDB machines right in front
of the Green Valley Buffet, I should remind myself "This is where
Babe and company play regularly and of course, win regularly.".

hmmmmm....but why are these machines usually empty lately (as
compared to during the grand opening days)??? Absolutely NO
downgrade in the pay schedules seen.
Are these people here going blind by playing the non-fullpay

machines

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

instead?

#18

for the rest of us.

I can tell you that two years ago I played 9/5 DDB at the Mirage and
won plenty on six consecutive trips. And when I played 9/6 Jacks next
door at Caesars, I lost.

For most of us out-of-towners there is no long-term. We don't go back
to the casino the next day or next week when the variance "bit" us
because we don't live there.

So, you can consider us ignorant, or naive, or whatever you like. I
just know too many locals playing full-pays who have lost their
butts - and their life savings..

I am no worse off than they. And when I am lucky in the short term,
your full-pay machines are your own trap. When a machine is due, it
will pay. I'd take a short-term fluke over a long-term loss any day.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@...> wrote:

My estimate is that at least 90% of VP players are quite content to
play non-fullpay machines. As a daily player, I see this every day,
regardless of what casino I am in. I can only conclude that these
players are just not aware of the paytables, which I guess is fine

#19

Some excellent points. But my post was addressed more to the casinos
where there is a real choice between full-pay and non full-pay. As
an example, and taking into account your post below, if Mirage had
10/6 DDB and 9/5 DDB, which would you play, assuming you were AWARE
that both paytables existed? Same thing with Caesars; my guess is
not every single machine has 9/6 JoB, so let's say some are 8/5 JoB.
Which would you play?

I can tell you that two years ago I played 9/5 DDB at the Mirage

and

won plenty on six consecutive trips. And when I played 9/6 Jacks

next

door at Caesars, I lost.

For most of us out-of-towners there is no long-term. We don't go

back

to the casino the next day or next week when the variance "bit" us
because we don't live there.

So, you can consider us ignorant, or naive, or whatever you like.

I

just know too many locals playing full-pays who have lost their
butts - and their life savings..

I am no worse off than they. And when I am lucky in the short

term,

your full-pay machines are your own trap. When a machine is due,

it

will pay. I'd take a short-term fluke over a long-term loss any

day.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "npf125" <edifess@...> wrote:

#20

Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would of
course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short term
what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are short term.

I think the mathematical "wizards" and such lead you to believe
that "full-pay" machines give you a much bigger advantage than they
actually do - in the short term.

The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw the 4
aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats going to
the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where I'm "supposed"
to win.

Trust me - I've lost enough at the Palms on many full-pays to realize
that skill is important, as is survival, but luck is even more so.

Any of you locals who have read all the books, played the strategies
and lost plenty ready to finally fess up?