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Bob Dancer's CasinoGaming Column - 2 MAY 2006

Your logic escapes me.

I could almost see your point if the difference between the 2 games was in
hands that occur infrequently, like the royal or aces with a kicker. But it
isn't. The difference is in the full house and the flush. You'll get one
of those every 45 hands or so. That means that if you play 1000 hands per
hour at a dollar machine, over 20 times per hour, on average, you give up an
extra $5.

Crossing the street can be a pain, especially one like the strip. But for
$100 an hour, I'm willing to do it.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

On 5/6/06, npf125 <edifess@hotmail.com> wrote:

Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would of
course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short term
what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are short term.

I think the mathematical "wizards" and such lead you to believe
that "full-pay" machines give you a much bigger advantage than they
actually do - in the short term.

The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw the 4
aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats going to
the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where I'm "supposed"
to win.

npf125 wrote:

Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would of
course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short
term what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are short
term.

The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw the
4 aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats going
to the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where I'm
"supposed" to win.

I'd suggest a different take on this -- one that differentiates
between what that extra bump in payout yields and the overall
uncertainty of coming out ahead.

With 5% of DDB ER tied up in the "kicker" quads, and another 5% in the
remaining bonus quads, there's little doubt that coming out ahead on a
trip is highly dependent upon your experience in hitting those quads,
no matter what FH/F paytable you're playing.

That's what lends the impression that, in the short term, paytable
specifics are of limited consequence. But, looking at a $1 DDB player
who expects to hit 8 FH an hour on average, you can say with fairly
strong confidence that a 9/6 paytable is going to penalize a $1 player
by around $40/hr over the course of a trip or two vs. 10/6. There's
no sidestepping that fact.

Now granted, when such a player may easily end an hour up or down by
$600 or more, $40 is a relatively nominal amount in the short run.
But it's a very solid expectation and for any player, who when they
walk out of the casino and will balk at a $.25 increase in the price
of gas over the prior week, I'm hard pressed to suggest that it's to
be lightly dismissed.

Of course, as you scale down stakes to quarter or even nickle, the
significance of that difference to a player diminishes. For 5-hr a
day player on a 4 day trip, a $200 difference in expected quarter
results is far more tolerable to a player than $800 for $1 stakes, and
a quarter player might do well to factor other play considerations
more heavily than that $50/day.

For that matter, a $1 player may prefer to play in luxury digs on the
Strip rather than hunt out a 10/6 game at some place like the Strat,
or simply in the casino where their comped over another property. In
such a case, I wouldn't suggest that they've made a poor choice --
provided they grasp that there's a very tangible and reliable
consequence to their results.

There's every reason to believe that many players opting for less
attractive paytables do so in the belief that it's all a crap shoot
and it really doesn't matter in the greater scheme of things over a
trip or two. Casinos love 'em.

- Harry

OK, I play the expert strategies, have lost plenty ... but have won
MORE. Before I started looking for full pay machines and learned about
these strategies I always lost much more than I won. Any other
questions?

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "npf125" <edifess@...> wrote:

Any of you locals who have read all the books, played the strategies
and lost plenty ready to finally fess up?

I'm not a local, but I am a long-time and frequent player.

My experience is almost identical to Dick's.

Unless you really believe that the the higher pay machines are
"rigged" in some way, to produce fewer winning hands, why would you
want to play a machine that pays 25 coins for a flush instead of of
one which pays 30 coins? Of course, if the casino with the 25 coin
payoff is your "lucky" place.....I DO understand! (-:

-Babe-

···

============================================
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote:

OK, I play the expert strategies, have lost plenty ... but have won
MORE. Before I started looking for full pay machines and learned
about these strategies I always lost much more than I won. Any other
questions?

Dick

mroejacks wrote:

OK, I play the expert strategies, have lost plenty ... but have won
MORE. Before I started looking for full pay machines and learned about
these strategies I always lost much more than I won. Any other
questions?

Personal win/loss experience is a weak premise on which to argue that
paytables/strategy are a strong factor in play vs. luck -- or that you
can look to win when playing the best paytables. For many higher
variance games, the probability that you may lose on a positive
expectation play is strong (20%+) even after a million hands.

Focus on the return for frequently occuring hands, where the outcome
is reliably predictable.

- H.

Certainly, for me, there is a dilemma, choosing bewteen NSUD and Loose
Deuces on the $1 machines in the sportsbook at LVH.

On the one hand, Loose Deuces is an above 100% game, but with high
variance. The low pays on some of the "common" hands are offset by
the huge increase in return for 4 Deuces.

NSUD has a lower variance and some of the common hands have a better
payoff, but NSUD is a below 100% game.

Personally, I tend to go with the NSUD over the Loose Deuces.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

Focus on the return for frequently occuring hands, where the outcome
is reliably predictable.

- H.

Per Scott Krause's LVA "Slot Club Bonus Points" column:
   
       >Gold Rush (Magic Club) 5 x Tuesdays, Saturdays and Sundays
   
  Gold Rush is owned by Stations; there's a link to their website at the bottom of stationcasinos.com, which is:
   
        http://www.goldrushcasinolasvegas.com
   
  Perhaps there should be a vpFREE DB entry for it? I walked thru Gold Rush about 2 weeks ago. The only playable game I could find at $1+ was $1 8/5 BP uprights in the back of the casino against the wall (I think the restrooms are there, but don't remember for sure). I couldn't find any games at all at higher denoms, playable or not. They appear to have their own slot club, separate from Stations Boarding Pass.
   
  John

···

---------------------------------
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Does CM have anything close to playable at $5 or above? Even a 99% game would be positive on 5x days. There's nothing listed in the database over the $1 level. Do they have either 8/5 BP or 9/7 DB, by chance? Any progressives?
   
  John

···

---------------------------------
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I wish I could answer, as I played at Monte Lago late Saturday night.
I know there are a couple of Spin Pokers and a Ten Play in the little
high limit area, but I am not aware of any single line high
denomination VP machines there.

But assuming you were going to play max coin on a single line $5
machine ($25), you could play max coin 9/7/5 DB on any of the Spin
Pokers at the 50 cent level ($22.50).

Does CM have anything close to playable at $5 or above? Even a 99%

game would be positive on 5x days. There's nothing listed in the
database over the $1 level. Do they have either 8/5 BP or 9/7 DB, by
chance? Any progressives?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Douglass <john.douglass@...> wrote:

   
  John

OK. So, Dick and Babe have won MORE on Full Pay vp machines. I have
too in the other casinos.

However, the topic here is all about those full-pay VP at the Wynn
and at GVR.

Maybe I've missed something here, but I don't see either one saying
that their MORE winnings were from the Wynn's (10/6 DDB and 9/6/80
JB in particular) and GVR's (10/6 DDB in front of the Buffet) full-
pay VPs. If they were, great! We'd love to watch you play there one
of these days and see how you do it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackessiebabe" <jackessiebabe@...>
wrote:

I'm not a local, but I am a long-time and frequent player.

My experience is almost identical to Dick's.

Unless you really believe that the the higher pay machines are
"rigged" in some way, to produce fewer winning hands, why would

you

want to play a machine that pays 25 coins for a flush instead of

of

one which pays 30 coins? Of course, if the casino with the 25

coin

payoff is your "lucky" place.....I DO understand! (-:

-Babe-

============================================

OK, I play the expert strategies, have lost plenty ... but have

won

MORE. Before I started looking for full pay machines and learned
about these strategies I always lost much more than I won. Any

other

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@> wrote:
questions?

Dick

Hi Gilbert,

I'm sorry that I apparently caused you some distress with my
previous post. I was referring to the advantage of playing "full-
pay" VP, versus "short-pay" VP. I was not addressing the merits of
playing at the Mirage versus playing at Wynn or GVR.

Perhaps I was mistaken, but I did not perceive that npf125, was
specifically discussing these particular casinos either. I had
assumed that he choose them, because they are close to each other,
and one offered full pay VP while the other did not.

In re-reading his post, which is appended below, you may be quite
correct in your assumption that he was specifically singling out the
Mirage and the Wynn for comparison.

If that is the correct conclusion, I must ask npf125 if the reason
why he prefers playing short-pay at the Mirage to full-pay at Wynn,
is based solely on his prior won-loss records at the two casinos?
Or, does he have some other suspicion or information, that he is more
likely to do better at the Mirage than at the Wynn?

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have never played at Wynn or
GVR. My singular experience with playing at the Mirage, occured in
1989, the day after the hotel opened. I didn't like their VP
inventory then, and haven't been back since.

The point that I was attempting to make, was that no matter WHERE
one plays, IMO, it is advantageous to seek out full pay machines.
Therefore, I don't frequent casinos that don't offer full pay VP.

If the Wynn offers full pay VP and the Mirage does not, I would
certainly prefer to play at the Wynn. It would not be a
consideration to me, that I had done extremely well or extremely
poorly at either casino previously.

"Long-term" and short-term" aside, if you believe in the math, and
also have faith that the machines are random and not rigged or "sub-
programmed", I don't know how you can come to a different conclusion.

I, personally, being a non-local as well as an "older" person whose
long-term is getting much shorter every day, play for the short term
gain rather than the eventual long term gain. However, I do believe
that the math does apply equally to either.

I have absolutely no doubt that I'd prefer to receive 50 coins
rather than 45 coins, for a FH on DB or DDB. Even a mathmatically
challenged person such as myself can figure that out. So, unless I
have some proof that Casino A (offering a 45 coin FH) will provide
more FH's than Casino B (Offering a 50 coin FH), I am going to favor
Casino B with my business.

BTW, if you want to "come and watch me play, to see how I do it", I'm
afraid that you're out of luck. When I detect that someone is
watching me, I turn around, stare at them purposefully, and stop
playing until they move away. I intensely dislike being "stalked"
in this manner, no matter what the reason the person might have for
staring.

Cheers,
-Babe-

···

===============================================
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:
OK. So, Dick and Babe have won MORE on Full Pay vp machines. I have
too in the other casinos.

However, the topic here is all about those full-pay VP at the Wynn
and at GVR. Maybe I've missed something here, but I don't see either
one saying that their MORE winnings were from the Wynn's (10/6 DDB
and 9/6/80 JB in particular) and GVR's (10/6 DDB in front of the
Buffet) full- pay VPs. If they were, great! We'd love to watch you
play there one of these days and see how you do it.

In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "npf125" <edifess@...> wrote:

Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would of
course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short
term what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are short
term.

I think the mathematical "wizards" and such lead you to believe
that "full-pay" machines give you a much bigger advantage than they
actually do - in the short term.

The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw the
4 aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats
going to the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where
I'm "supposed" to win.

I was at CML yesterday and noticed that they had bonus poker, full
pay, at the $5 level. That was the best game that I saw at any level
above 50 cents.

Bob

Does CM have anything close to playable at $5 or above? Even a 99%

game would be positive on 5x days. There's nothing listed in the
database over the $1 level. Do they have either 8/5 BP or 9/7 DB, by
chance? Any progressives?

   
  John
   
---------------------------------
Love cheap thrills? Enjoy PC-to-Phone calls to 30+ countries for

just 2¢/min with Yahoo! Messenger with Voice.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Douglass <john.douglass@...> wrote:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I was at CML yesterday and noticed that they had bonus poker, full
pay, at the $5 level. That was the best game that I saw at any

level

above 50 cents.

Sad commentary for a casino that opened touting their VP inventory.

Don the Dentist

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob M" <merg17@...> wrote:

May be the topic but the question I answered was "Any of you locals who
have read all the books, played the strategies and lost plenty ready to
finally fess up?".

No mention of GVR or Wynn.

However, I will answer your question. Never played at Wynns but have
played a little at GVR. For myself/wife we have won $300 over the last
3 years and then mostly at FPDW with a only a couple of sessions at
DDB. GVR just doesn't provide enough of an edge to make it worthwhile.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

OK. So, Dick and Babe have won MORE on Full Pay vp machines. I have
too in the other casinos.

However, the topic here is all about those full-pay VP at the Wynn
and at GVR.

Maybe I've missed something here, but I don't see either one saying
that their MORE winnings were from the Wynn's (10/6 DDB and 9/6/80
JB in particular) and GVR's (10/6 DDB in front of the Buffet) full-
pay VPs. If they were, great! We'd love to watch you play there one
of these days and see how you do it.

Hi Babe,

You did not cause me any distress see :> :slight_smile: :>
The point I was trying to make is that someway/somehow, bad luck or
whatever it is, I couldn't manage to win at those mentioned full-pay
machines at the Wynn or GVR each time I tried them compared to the
neighboring 9/6 or 9/5 DDB or 9/6 JB where, using the same strategy,
I managed to do so much better (hit more quads, fullhouses, etc.).

The full-pay vps are always my first choice when I walk into a
casino, but when you've tried the ones at the Wynn or GVR a dozen or
two already and always came up losing...that first choice of mine at
those 2 casinos have been changed. So I hope you have better luck if
you ever try those machines! Or else just forget about the
mathematics for that "shor-term" of play and save your remaining
bankroll for playing somewhere else.

The example I gave on frequency of quads or fullhouse "on average"
is just a maybe (since we all know that vegas casinos are honest,
right?) so I'm basically hoping that maybe someday someone who works
for the Gaming Commission (if s/he ever browse these forums) might
check out those number of frequencies "on average" if there is any
such thing/mechanism that they use when auditing these machines.
And again, my tiny concern in this matter is that hardly anyone will
complain about full-pay machines so I have no clue if they even get
audited or checked.

Sorry, for not being very detailed or clear on my previous posts and
I hope this one makes it a little bit more understandable.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackessiebabe" <jackessiebabe@...>
wrote:

Hi Gilbert,

I'm sorry that I apparently caused you some distress with my
previous post. I was referring to the advantage of playing "full-
pay" VP, versus "short-pay" VP. I was not addressing the merits

of

playing at the Mirage versus playing at Wynn or GVR.

Perhaps I was mistaken, but I did not perceive that npf125, was
specifically discussing these particular casinos either. I had
assumed that he choose them, because they are close to each other,
and one offered full pay VP while the other did not.

In re-reading his post, which is appended below, you may be quite
correct in your assumption that he was specifically singling out

the

Mirage and the Wynn for comparison.

If that is the correct conclusion, I must ask npf125 if the reason
why he prefers playing short-pay at the Mirage to full-pay at

Wynn,

is based solely on his prior won-loss records at the two casinos?
Or, does he have some other suspicion or information, that he is

more

likely to do better at the Mirage than at the Wynn?

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have never played at Wynn or
GVR. My singular experience with playing at the Mirage, occured

in

1989, the day after the hotel opened. I didn't like their VP
inventory then, and haven't been back since.

The point that I was attempting to make, was that no matter WHERE
one plays, IMO, it is advantageous to seek out full pay machines.
Therefore, I don't frequent casinos that don't offer full pay VP.

If the Wynn offers full pay VP and the Mirage does not, I would
certainly prefer to play at the Wynn. It would not be a
consideration to me, that I had done extremely well or extremely
poorly at either casino previously.

"Long-term" and short-term" aside, if you believe in the math, and
also have faith that the machines are random and not rigged

or "sub-

programmed", I don't know how you can come to a different

conclusion.

I, personally, being a non-local as well as an "older" person

whose

long-term is getting much shorter every day, play for the short

term

gain rather than the eventual long term gain. However, I do

believe

that the math does apply equally to either.

I have absolutely no doubt that I'd prefer to receive 50 coins
rather than 45 coins, for a FH on DB or DDB. Even a mathmatically
challenged person such as myself can figure that out. So, unless

I

have some proof that Casino A (offering a 45 coin FH) will provide
more FH's than Casino B (Offering a 50 coin FH), I am going to

favor

Casino B with my business.

BTW, if you want to "come and watch me play, to see how I do it",

I'm

afraid that you're out of luck. When I detect that someone is
watching me, I turn around, stare at them purposefully, and stop
playing until they move away. I intensely dislike being "stalked"
in this manner, no matter what the reason the person might have

for

staring.

Cheers,
-Babe-

===============================================
OK. So, Dick and Babe have won MORE on Full Pay vp machines. I

have

too in the other casinos.

However, the topic here is all about those full-pay VP at the Wynn
and at GVR. Maybe I've missed something here, but I don't see

either

one saying that their MORE winnings were from the Wynn's (10/6 DDB
and 9/6/80 JB in particular) and GVR's (10/6 DDB in front of the
Buffet) full- pay VPs. If they were, great! We'd love to watch you
play there one of these days and see how you do it.

Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would

of

course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short
term what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are

short

term.

I think the mathematical "wizards" and such lead you to believe
that "full-pay" machines give you a much bigger advantage than

they

actually do - in the short term.

The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw

the

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@> wrote:
In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "npf125" <edifess@> wrote:
4 aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats
going to the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where
I'm "supposed" to win.

I just got back from Monte Lago and can confirm the remarks below.
Many of the Game Kings have 7/5 Bonus Poker, but the machines along
the wall underneath the Tappo Lounge have 8/5 BP at the $5 level.
Other games were weak: 9/6/5 DB; 8/5 JoB; 17/7/5 Joker; 8/6 BP
Deluxe; 8/5/DDB; amd 15/9/4 DW.

Also, there are at least two Ten Play machines that have 9/7/5 DB
and 8/5 BP at the 50c level; these are close to the Megabucks slant-
top video slots.

And for quarter players; and in case this isn't in the database; I
saw at least 24 machines with 9/6 JoB and 9/6 BP Deluxe; both with
the 50,000 credit Sequential Royal.

I was at CML yesterday and noticed that they had bonus poker, full
pay, at the $5 level. That was the best game that I saw at any

level

above 50 cents.

Bob

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Douglass <john.douglass@>

wrote:

>
> Does CM have anything close to playable at $5 or above? Even a

99%

game would be positive on 5x days. There's nothing listed in the
database over the $1 level. Do they have either 8/5 BP or 9/7 DB,

by

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob M" <merg17@...> wrote:

chance? Any progressives?
>
> John
>

Well, I think that we all feel your pain, and we all have "been there". Yes, yes, yes, "lady
luck" has to be reckoned with, in spite of mathematics.

In the end, however, my own personal "adoration" will be at the foot of the "mathematics"
altar, trying as hard as I can to ignore, as much as possible, anecdotal "evidence".

Probabilty and statistics will reign supreme in the "long term", no matter how hard it is to
believe.

There will be ups and downs (mostly downs....LOL), but you have to stay with the
maximum ER at any given location, no matter what your "feelings" might be.

(MY OPINION)

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

Or else just forget about the
mathematics for that "shor-term" of play and save your remaining
bankroll for playing somewhere else.

since we all know that vegas casinos are honest,

Sorry, for not being very detailed or clear on my previous posts and
I hope this one makes it a little bit more understandable.

So far this year I've gotten two Royals playing 9/6/90 Jacks at Wynn's
famous bank of 4, and one more at one of their 9/6 machines scattered
around. I've played about 45,000 hands at Wynn, so my results put me
ahead of expectations a little bit. Not enough to make me suspicious
though.

I've also had some truly awful sessions there, including one morning
when I got two 450 credit straight flushes in a couple hour session
and still cashed out with the same amount I started with. That,
unfortunately, is the kind of thing that can happen in the short run
with a completely fair machine.

By the way, I haven't gotten that quads mailer, or much of anything
else from Wynn even though we've stayed there 3 times. Do they just
send those to locals?

Mike

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

The full-pay vps are always my first choice when I walk into a
casino, but when you've tried the ones at the Wynn or GVR a dozen or
two already and always came up losing...that first choice of mine at
those 2 casinos have been changed. So I hope you have better luck if
you ever try those machines! Or else just forget about the
mathematics for that "shor-term" of play and save your remaining
bankroll for playing somewhere else.

Thanks to all for the CML updates.
   
  Note to Admin: will you please add these to the DB? Thank you

···

Charles <fromthevault@yahoo.com> wrote:
  the machines along the wall underneath the Tappo Lounge have 8/5 BP at the $5 level.

Also, there are at least two Ten Play machines that have 9/7/5 DB
and 8/5 BP at the 50c level; these are close to the Megabucks slant-
top video slots.

And for quarter players; and in case this isn't in the database; I
saw at least 24 machines with 9/6 JoB and 9/6 BP Deluxe; both with
the 50,000 credit Sequential Royal.

---------------------------------
Yahoo! Messenger with Voice. Make PC-to-Phone Calls to the US (and 30+ countries) for 2¢/min or less.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Try more like four or five, and good luck getting on them on 5x points
day. This is what Vegas has come to: play for .4, lock it up, burn it
down.

In the alternative, there's lots of Spin Poker with the 8-5 Bonus and
9-7 DB in denoms 25c and up.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Charles" <fromthevault@...> wrote:

Also, there are at least two Ten Play machines that have 9/7/5 DB
and 8/5 BP at the 50c level; these are close to the Megabucks slant-
top video slots.

_________________________________________________________________________

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