via Frank, the7thwarrior writes:
So if a progressive is at 106% and there are 5 people playing, I
figure it like this, only ONE person can hit that progressive.
It is true that you would only have approximately a 1/5 chance of being
the lucky person who hits the progressive (assuming everyone plays at
the same speed with the same strategy adjustments etc.), but that is
irrelevant to your expectation.
If the expected value of the play is 106% with the bank all to yourself,
it is still 106% if there are 5, 10, or a thousand other people playing
the same bank.
Think about it this way: how do we calculate the expected return
of a game? By looking at the probability of various dealt hands,
figuring out which cards should be held from each of the possible deals,
then calculating the probability of various ending hands, and finally
multiplying those by their paytable values.
That being the case, the *only* thing that matters to your expected
return, is what the pay table reads when you press the DEAL button.
If someone else hits the progressive, you stop playing.
Or look at it another way: suppose there is a single 106% machine that
you have all to yourself. But before you can hit a royal, your spouse
comes by and says "You have to stop playing, we're going to dinner *now*"
and your spouse is not the sort of person you want to cross.
You had to stop playing before you hit the royal. Does this mean you
weren't playing at 106% like you thought you were? Of course not.
You may not be the one to hit the royal *this* time, but if you keep
making 106% bets, your long-term results will approach 106% of the
aggregate amount you wagered.