vpFREE2 Forums

Bob and Frank's new Progressives

#1

I know the vp administrator will eventually post a link to the latest Bob Dancer article, but it's already up and I couldn't wait. It's probably the most interesting news about video poker that has come up in quite a while. Check it out, it's going to be at the M Resort.

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0510.cfm

I am anxious to hear this being discussed. I am also anxious to see it get going, and then being discussed. Should be interesting to read comments about it now, and then compare with comments in a few weeks from now, after some folks have had a good opportunity to get pummeled playing 16-13 deuces. lol

I applaud the effort by Bob & Frank, and look forward to playing at The M. Bravo!

#2

bobbartop@yahoo.com wrote:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0510.cfm

i'm fascinated by this, because it's a virtuouso example of playing
both sides of casinos vs. players for personal gain, which bob dancer
is such an expert at.

dancer to players: these are 96%+ games with a 4% meter feeding all
the games, so there'll always be something positive to play! by the
way, you'll need my advice to play it correctly!

dancer to M: players will be playing at 95% or worse on the base game
due to chasing the royal hard, so with only a 4% meter, you'll have a
huge edge! by the way, pay me for this idea!

one of these two statements is true. one is false. no bonus points for
guessing which is which.

I applaud the effort by Bob & Frank, and look forward to playing at The M. Bravo!

it is generally not a good thing for smart players when bob dancer,
author of "beware of smart players", becomes associated with a casino.
this is no exception.

there will be opportunities created by this progressive bank. there
are with any progressive bank, when the suckers feed the meter, and
the sharps take it down. this is no different.

but as a player at M, i am much more disheartened by the news that
they are associating with dancer, which may reduce future major
opportunities, than i am encouraged by any potential minor
opportunities at this bank.

best wishes,

five

#3

I am far from an expert but I like to follow this list. Next week I
will be staying at The Mirage with a group of friends. Does anybody
have any suggestions on what games might be worth playing there or games
to avoid?

Thanks

Steve

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

The database is pretty accurate. The only playable games are at the $5 and up
level. 9/6JOB, 8/5BP, 9/6DDB and I think airport deuces. Everything at the lower
level is short pay. Drinks at the Kokomo bar are not comped. They are at the
high limit bar.

···

________________________________
From: steve84 <steve84@flash.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, May 11, 2011 1:47:03 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Question about The Mirage

I am far from an expert but I like to follow this list. Next week I
will be staying at The Mirage with a group of friends. Does anybody
have any suggestions on what games might be worth playing there or games
to avoid?

Thanks

Steve

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

The variances could make these machines very expensive if you are in a "royal drought" (IMHO).

..... bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, fivespot <fivespot55@...> wrote:

bobbartop@... wrote:
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/0510.cfm

#6

Variance is your friend.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:

The variances could make these machines very expensive if you are in a "royal drought" (IMHO).

#7

I don't understand why both statements cannot be correct. I look forward to someone explaining it to me.

By the way, we don't absolutely need his advice to play it correctly. Armed with a pad of paper and his software on my computer, I can figure it out myself. But still, I want to hear what he has to say later. He's a teacher. And he's a smart teacher too!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, fivespot <fivespot55@...> wrote:

i'm fascinated by this, because it's a virtuouso example of playing
both sides of casinos vs. players for personal gain, which bob dancer
is such an expert at.

dancer to players: these are 96%+ games with a 4% meter feeding all
the games, so there'll always be something positive to play! by the
way, you'll need my advice to play it correctly!

dancer to M: players will be playing at 95% or worse on the base game
due to chasing the royal hard, so with only a 4% meter, you'll have a
huge edge! by the way, pay me for this idea!

one of these two statements is true. one is false. no bonus points for
guessing which is which.

#8

here's a direct quote from dancer's article: "Most of the progressive
teams in the past would lock up all the games in a particular bank of
machines and play until the progressive was hit. Here they can't do
this because there will "always" be a good progressive to play. If
teams only went home when there were no good plays, once they showed
up at the M they could never leave!"

this is false. proof that it is false:

suppose pros are camped out on the dollar machines all the time. they
can play all the games close to perfectly. according to dancer, there
will always be good plays on this bank. so, the machines will pay out
over 100% all the time.

however, also according to dancer, the pros will be playing a strategy
that returns about 95% return on the base game. so, M will be paying
back 95% of coinin for the base game, plus 4% of coinin to feed the
meter. so, the machines will pay out around 99% in the long run.

the same set of machines cannot return over 100% all the time, and
return only 99% in the long run. hence some of the initial statements
- all taken directly from dancer's article - must be incorrect.

best wishes,

five

···

Bob Bartop <bobbartop@yahoo.com> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, fivespot <fivespot55@...> wrote:

i'm fascinated by this, because it's a virtuouso example of playing
both sides of casinos vs. players for personal gain, which bob dancer
is such an expert at.

dancer to players: these are 96%+ games with a 4% meter feeding all
the games, so there'll always be something positive to play! by the
way, you'll need my advice to play it correctly!

dancer to M: players will be playing at 95% or worse on the base game
due to chasing the royal hard, so with only a 4% meter, you'll have a
huge edge! by the way, pay me for this idea!

one of these two statements is true. one is false. no bonus points for
guessing which is which.

I don't understand why both statements cannot be correct. I look forward to someone explaining it to me.

#9

I just reread the article a few times and I don't see how what you characterized Bob as saying to the M can be taken from it. The M wouldn't do this if they thought that everyone would play perfectly. They're big boys. They can determine for themselves what is best for them. Maybe there's some other consideration that would make this profitable for them. I'm skeptical that it is, but I don't see how Bob misled them. They probably know better than Bob how well the average nonprofessional player plays. And I assume the advertising contract is win-win.

···

----- fivespot <fivespot55@gmail.com> wrote:

Bob Bartop <bobbartop@yahoo.com> wrote:

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, fivespot <fivespot55@...> wrote:

>>

>> i'm fascinated by this, because it's a virtuouso example of playing

>> both sides of casinos vs. players for personal gain, which bob dancer

>> is such an expert at.

>>

>> dancer to players: these are 96%+ games with a 4% meter feeding all

>> the games, so there'll always be something positive to play! by the

>> way, you'll need my advice to play it correctly!

>>

>> dancer to M: players will be playing at 95% or worse on the base game

>> due to chasing the royal hard, so with only a 4% meter, you'll have a

>> huge edge! by the way, pay me for this idea!

>>

>> one of these two statements is true. one is false. no bonus points for

>> guessing which is which.

>

> I don't understand why both statements cannot be correct. I look forward to someone explaining it to me.

here's a direct quote from dancer's article: "Most of the progressive

teams in the past would lock up all the games in a particular bank of

machines and play until the progressive was hit. Here they can't do

this because there will "always" be a good progressive to play. If

teams only went home when there were no good plays, once they showed

up at the M they could never leave!"

this is false. proof that it is false:

suppose pros are camped out on the dollar machines all the time. they

can play all the games close to perfectly. according to dancer, there

will always be good plays on this bank. so, the machines will pay out

over 100% all the time.

however, also according to dancer, the pros will be playing a strategy

that returns about 95% return on the base game. so, M will be paying

back 95% of coinin for the base game, plus 4% of coinin to feed the

meter. so, the machines will pay out around 99% in the long run.

the same set of machines cannot return over 100% all the time, and

return only 99% in the long run. hence some of the initial statements

- all taken directly from dancer's article - must be incorrect.

best wishes,

five

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10
#11

In response to fivespot's post.

Gosh everyone. I can't believe how willing many of you are to spin everything in as negative a way a possible.

I received several direct requests to see if I could convince casinos to put in better progressives. I did this BECAUSE YOU ASKED ME TO.

The only way to achieve that was to come up with a concept that could be good for casinos and patrons alike. You try doing that.

The M is putting in 100%+ games = Base Return + Meter-Rise - errors

They are expecting to make their money off errors because obviously playing 8 different strategies well will be hard. If it wasn't hard then everyone could do it. I assume you must realize a casino isn't going to put in games way over 100% if they thought they would be losing on everyone that played them???

Oh and Bob never said, "You have to come to me to learn how to play them." He said on air and in print. You can make your own strategies or, if you'd prefer we will be making some for you and posting them for free. If that is self-serving, it must be the "new definition".

I was asked to do something. I did it. Now people complain that I did what they asked and ascribe dark ulterior motives to my actions.

Five last things:

1. Bob had nothing to do with the idea other than to help me pick the games.

2. Bob got me in touch with the M casino manager and set up the meeting...very little more.

3. Part of the reason they decided to put it in was because we would be advertising it. Without the sponsorship and advertising it affords I could not have sold them on the idea.

4. I did all this including spending over a week working on the math to figure out the true game returns, because I was asked to do so by vpFREE posters.

5. Before writing a long post and guessing about someones motives, try just asking them what they were thinking, at least as a first step. That is, if you would actually like to know the truth. Some of you seem happier with your malignant fantasies.

If any of you out there think you can come up with a better idea that's pitch-able to a casino, please do so. Oh and prepare for half of vpFREE to despise you for trying to help.

~FK

#12

Frank,

I appreciate your efforts and think it will be a great playing opportunity as long as the M Resort delivers on everything Bob described in his article. I think you have to learn to ignore some of the negative comments from the other posters. If I was you I would ask Bob for help in this department since he seems to have it mastered. You cannot make everybody happy no matter how many times you post on Vpfree. It seems like half your posts on here are of you either defending yourself or explaining yourself.

Take it easy and keep up the good work.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

In response to fivespot's post.

Gosh everyone. I can't believe how willing many of you are to spin everything in as negative a way a possible.

I received several direct requests to see if I could convince casinos to put in better progressives. I did this BECAUSE YOU ASKED ME TO.

The only way to achieve that was to come up with a concept that could be good for casinos and patrons alike. You try doing that.

The M is putting in 100%+ games = Base Return + Meter-Rise - errors

They are expecting to make their money off errors because obviously playing 8 different strategies well will be hard. If it wasn't hard then everyone could do it. I assume you must realize a casino isn't going to put in games way over 100% if they thought they would be losing on everyone that played them???

Oh and Bob never said, "You have to come to me to learn how to play them." He said on air and in print. You can make your own strategies or, if you'd prefer we will be making some for you and posting them for free. If that is self-serving, it must be the "new definition".

I was asked to do something. I did it. Now people complain that I did what they asked and ascribe dark ulterior motives to my actions.

Five last things:

1. Bob had nothing to do with the idea other than to help me pick the games.

2. Bob got me in touch with the M casino manager and set up the meeting...very little more.

3. Part of the reason they decided to put it in was because we would be advertising it. Without the sponsorship and advertising it affords I could not have sold them on the idea.

4. I did all this including spending over a week working on the math to figure out the true game returns, because I was asked to do so by vpFREE posters.

5. Before writing a long post and guessing about someones motives, try just asking them what they were thinking, at least as a first step. That is, if you would actually like to know the truth. Some of you seem happier with your malignant fantasies.

If any of you out there think you can come up with a better idea that's pitch-able to a casino, please do so. Oh and prepare for half of vpFREE to despise you for trying to help.

~FK

#13

9/6 $5 multiline games are no more - only 9/6 games left I think maybe are at high limit bar which also used to have full pay Dueces Bonus - these are single line games. Apparently a few players toasted them during a promotion, so the high limit room does not have the $5 9/6 anymore - I am not sure there is any 9/6 left there.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Joel Fink <joel0457@...> wrote:

The database is pretty accurate. The only playable games are at the $5 and up
level. 9/6JOB, 8/5BP, 9/6DDB and I think airport deuces. Everything at the lower
level is short pay. Drinks at the Kokomo bar are not comped. They are at the
high limit bar.

________________________________
From: steve84 <steve84@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, May 11, 2011 1:47:03 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Question about The Mirage

Â

I am far from an expert but I like to follow this list. Next week I
will be staying at The Mirage with a group of friends. Does anybody
have any suggestions on what games might be worth playing there or games
to avoid?

Thanks

Steve

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

aren't these two statements in conflict?

if you're armed with "his software" on your computer, then you're apparently not figuring it out yourself.

i've been away from the group for a few days and just stumbled upon this lengthy discussion, but if the argument on the table is that dancer is profiting from both sides... saying that you're using dancer's software to help you figure things out does not seem to support your suggestion that dancer does not necessarily profit personally from situations such as this.

(i'm assuming, of course, that you have a licensed, purchased version of his software on your computer. and i'm not taking a side in this discussion; i was just rather startled by what i perceived as the upside down logic of your post.)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

By the way, we don't absolutely need his advice to play it correctly. Armed with a pad of paper and his software on my computer, I can figure it out myself.

#15

You cannot please this crew. Don't try. They are pissed because they might have to go back to a 9 to 5 situation, caused by everyone else doing the VP pro thing. The casinos have caught on and tightened the pay tables. The good VP ship is slowly sinking in the west. How is that for negativity.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

In response to fivespot's post.

Gosh everyone. I can't believe how willing many of you are to spin everything in as negative a way a possible.

If any of you out there think you can come up with a better idea that's pitch-able to a casino, please do so. Oh and prepare for half of vpFREE to despise you for trying to help.

~FK

#16

frank, the only reason i posted criticism was because dancer made
specific clearly false statements in his column announcing the
progressives. maybe he intended them as exaggeration or hyperbole, not
to be taken seriously, but if so, that wasn't clear to me. (or to
bobbartop, who had to ask why they couldn't be true.)

are you defending the false statements that dancer made in his column,
like when he said that this bank will "always" have a good progressive
to play?

i am not complaining about M putting in high-meter progressives. i am
not complaining about the "all play feeds separate meters for each
game" concept, which sounds rather clever. i am not complaining about
you advising M to put in these games.

in fact, i am not complaining about anything that you've done. so
please don't act like a martyr.

i think dancer's column oversold the concept, and i am very concerned
about dancer becoming involved with M, when he has previously
described opportunities at M which i've found profitable as problems
that need fixing. i'm glad to hear you say that dancer's involvement
was minimal; his column didn't make it sound that way.

best wishes,

five

···

Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:

In response to fivespot's post.

Gosh everyone. I can't believe how willing many of you are to spin everything in as negative a way a possible.

#17

Frank wrote:

Gosh everyone. I can't believe how willing many of you are to spin everything in as negative a way a possible.

I received several direct requests to see if I could convince
casinos to put in better progressives. I did this BECAUSE YOU ASKED
ME TO.

The only way to achieve that was to come up with a concept that
could be good for casinos and patrons alike. You try doing that ...

Frank,

Here's my belated take: In short, brilliant! (I wouldn't expect anything less when you and Bob put your heads together)

To me, the positives (for both player and casino) are clear as a bell.

The problem with most progressive banks is that the majority of the time they sit waiting for ploppy play (when "negative") and don't generate much revenue. When the banks are hot, seat contention can create ugly situations (even in absence of team presence).

The beauty here is that all progressives are being fed while the hottest meter is being chased. That may not always be enough to ensure a "positive" meter on the bank, but it goes a long ways to pushing them positive.

And even during those lulls, where no progressive meter is sufficient to induce advantage play, the low paytable will allow for meter levels that on the surface appear unusually attractive, intensifying the ploppy play that will move things up.

As you note, the unusually high meters and diverse gameset have the potential to realize a nice hold for the house, despite a theoretical high player return. The meters should attract significant play from players who haven't studied appropriate strategy adjustments at such high meters, not to mention play onto games with which they're not well versed.

I'd gladly welcome the bank to a casino accessible to us in the East.

- H.

#18

My opinion for what it is worth, if this is a once in a year trip, play whatever you feel like playing and have a good time doing it. Vegas is a playground, a trip away from home. You are not gambling for a career, so just PLAY.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, steve84 <steve84@...> wrote:

I am far from an expert but I like to follow this list. Next week I
will be staying at The Mirage with a group of friends. Does anybody
have any suggestions on what games might be worth playing there or games
to avoid?

Thanks

Steve

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#19

Hell yeah he is smart! He was one of the first that figured out he could sell books to new gamblers going to Vegas, who think they can will a Million $$ playing quarter video poker!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

By the way, we don't absolutely need his advice to play it correctly. Armed with a pad of paper and his software on my computer, I can figure it out myself. But still, I want to hear what he has to say later. He's a teacher. And he's a smart teacher too!

#20

By the way, Barley's on Sunset Road already has quarter bar top progressives
with this same concept. I'm not sure what the meter rise is set at, but in the
three times I've been there, at least one of the progressives has been above
$3K.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]