I have a $10,000 Bankroll. I plan on playing daily at the locations who
have the best comp / cash back promotions going for that day. My
question is 3 part:
1. What VP games should I be expert at (ones that are prevalent in
Vegas now? I use VPW to practise and learn on.
2. What denomination should I play on the above referenced (1) games?
3. How many lines at a time for each game?
I read all posts daily and any and all info / help would be greatly
appreciated.
2. What denomination should I play on the above referenced (1)
games?
3. How many lines at a time for each game?
IMHO, $10,000 is definitely not enough for anything higher than 25c
single line.
You can find single line FPDW for quarters in many off-strip locations.
Of course it's possible to lose $10k playing 25c FPDW. Even if you
play perfectly. But it's much more likely that you will win or play
for a very long time without losing your bankroll.
On the other hand, it's relatively common to lose $3k in an unlucky day
playing 10/7 DB for dollars.
Slowpoke
Is this a trip to Las Vegas or are you a local?
If a trip, how many days will you be there?
Are you prepared to lose the $10,000 bankroll in one trip (assuming you are a visitor)?
http://onecare.live.com/standard/en-us/purchase/trial.aspx?s_cid=wl_hotmailnews
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Is this a trip to Las Vegas or are you a local?
If a trip, how many days will you be there?
Are you prepared to lose the $10,000 bankroll in one trip (assuming
you are a visitor)?
I will be staying in Vegas from Jan thru May.
s_cid=wl_hotmailnews
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@...> wrote:
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip/57 Ethel/46" <codonn2478@...>
wrote:
I have a $10,000 Bankroll. I plan on playing daily at the locations
who
have the best comp / cash back promotions going for that day. My
question is 3 part:1. What VP games should I be expert at (ones that are prevalent in
Vegas now? I use VPW to practise and learn on.
Take the games already mentioned and find the ones you enjoy the most.
Stick with those games. You also should factor in where you are living.
Some of the previously mentioned casinos may be a long ways from your
home. Las Vegas traffic can be a nighmare at certain times.
2. What denomination should I play on the above referenced (1)
games?
Doesn't VPW have a bankroll facility? You should use it and get a feel
for what to expect.
3. How many lines at a time for each game?
Once you've selected a denomination the number of lines is less
important. Although multi-line has a higher variance it should not be
too much of a problem at 3 or 5 play. The problem will be finding
anything decent that isn't single line. You may also want to limit
yourself to a few casinos to maximize you comps. Will you have a Las
Vegas address to give the casinos? That will impact the types of
mailers you will receive.
There are many, many other considerations as well. Keep asking
questions and provide as much detail as possible.
Dick
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip/57 Ethel/46" <codonn2478@>
wrote:
>
> I have a $10,000 Bankroll. I plan on playing daily at the
locations
who
> have the best comp / cash back promotions going for that day. My
> question is 3 part:
>
> 1. What VP games should I be expert at (ones that are
prevalent in
> Vegas now? I use VPW to practise and learn on.
Take the games already mentioned and find the ones you enjoy the
most.
Stick with those games. You also should factor in where you are
living.
Some of the previously mentioned casinos may be a long ways from
your
home. Las Vegas traffic can be a nighmare at certain times.
>
> 2. What denomination should I play on the above referenced (1)
games?Doesn't VPW have a bankroll facility? You should use it and get a
feel
for what to expect.
>
> 3. How many lines at a time for each game?Once you've selected a denomination the number of lines is less
important. Although multi-line has a higher variance it should not
be
too much of a problem at 3 or 5 play. The problem will be finding
anything decent that isn't single line. You may also want to limit
yourself to a few casinos to maximize you comps. Will you have a
Las
Vegas address to give the casinos? That will impact the types of
mailers you will receive.There are many, many other considerations as well. Keep asking
questions and provide as much detail as possible.Dick
I will have a Vegas address. We plan on staying Jan. thru May. But
what is better the vegas address or our ny address?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote:
That bankroll should be adequate for quarter single line play with perhaps a bit of quarter multi-play or fifty cents single line. However, there are few multi-plays that are a positive play.
However, you will have to play perfectly and only play positive situations with an adequate margin.
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook/HA102225181033.aspx?pid=CL100626971033
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip/57 Ethel/46" <codonn2478@...>
wrote:
I will have a Vegas address. We plan on staying Jan. thru May. But
what is better the vegas address or our ny address?
It depends ... with your ny address you will get mailers for free
rooms, meals and maybe some freeplay. With a LV address you get a
mailer for each month that generally includes multipliers for points,
freeplay and some free gifts. However, these mailers are usually based
on play in previous months which means when you arrive you will get
nothing for a couple of months. Then you will get offers after you
leave. Not an ideal situation. On the other hand, if you don't need the
free rooms then the out-of-state mailer is not worth much either.
As you can see the fine details of your situation can have a big impact
on exactly what will work the best. Stations locals' mailers are based
on the 90 days ending the previous month (nov-jan play would determine
march mailer and it would assume that play was over 3 months-not good
for you until may). I believe coast in based on one month previous to
the current month (jan. play would determine march mailer). Coast also
appears to be changing their player's club to be more like Sam's Town
but who really knows (and I don't understand Sam's all that well as it
is but it seems to be based on some 3 months average as well).
Maybe some others can help?
My situation is I live here for 6 months. When I leave Stations and
Sam's Town let me fill out a "snowbird" form which suspends my account
until I return. I'm not aware that coast casinos currently have this
capability. That reduces some of the problems but does not completely
eliminate them and if you plan on doing this every year I'm not sure
they allow a 7 month suspension.
Maybe the best place to start is where are you going to be living.
Nothing specific, just a general area if it's not in a casino. Next,
are you planning on doing this every year. Finally, what other things
interest you besides gambling.
Dick
Hi there
You have a lot of good info to sort out. From a practical stand
point,I would consider:
1. Bankroll of $10,000 is a bit short for two people to play on even
at a quarter. I'm assumeing there is a Skip and Ethel. Of course the
chances of the bankroll tanking is still the same even if 2
machines are gong at the same time.
2. I would have, if possible, more funds I could get my hands on if
needed. Even a rabbit has a back door. Back door funds in case makes
sense to me. You probably might not need extra funds, but??? I would
consider how rotten it would feel if the first couple weeks in town
your play bank dropped to $5000. So you wake up one morning and you
are starting 3 months in Vegas with a $5000 bank; the machines
don't know you just dumped $5000 and your "due". Talk
about "sweating bullets".
3. Play only full pay machines. More important, only play games you
know strategy. I like the idea of FPDW at a quarter; however,
sometime the cb and comp is reduced. If you want to play 3-5-10 play
machines check to info here and find some nickle or dime machines
at full pay. I played a lot of hours of DW when it was around at
dollar level and I still like it even at a quarter.
4. I guess you go to Vegas now? If not, visit a couple times before
your long stay. Establish yourself. Have a friend send you the out
of town offers the casinos send home. Doesn't seem like your going
long enough to give up you home drivers license.
5. Last and this may seem hokey; write a gaming plan and stick to it
as close as you can.
6. I don't know if any of this will be helpfull, just rambling on;
some of my thoughts.
Cheers....Jeep
.
.
.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip/57 Ethel/46" <codonn2478@...>
wrote:
I have a $10,000 Bankroll. I plan on playing daily at the
locations who
have the best comp / cash back promotions going for that day. My
question is 3 part:1. What VP games should I be expert at (ones that are prevalent
in
Vegas now? I use VPW to practise and learn on.
2. What denomination should I play on the above referenced (1)
games?
3. How many lines at a time for each game?
I read all posts daily and any and all info / help would be
greatly
appreciated.
That bankroll should be adequate for quarter single line play with
perhaps a bit of quarter multi-play or fifty cents single line.
However, there are few multi-plays that are a positive play.
However, you will have to play perfectly and only play positive
situations with an adequate margin.
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook/HA102225181033.aspx?
pid=CL100626971033
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
With a $10,000 bankroll I would probably play the quarter 10/7
progressive (.25% meter and .3125% CB) at the 4 Queens. One would
probably catch an occasional play on the 9/6 DDB five-way meter
bartops there also.
I'd monitor the Fitz quarter 8/5 progressive and throw down on a good
number.
I would also throw in some 50 cent Jokers at EC with .2% CB. The
machines play so slow that even if you ran badly it would take months
to run through the money. Cash your card out every day you play
there. Don't let it build up or you could get the "we don't want
your busines" routine.
I'd also play the ten-play Jokers at Santa Fe - if they are still
there.
Then take your pick of any of the Stations casinos for FPDW.
Good luck.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@...> wrote:
The number of people playing a particular bankroll has no effect on
risk of ruin of the bankroll, assuming everyone is honest and of the
same skill level. That's why people form "teams". My guess is that 10
grand has about a half a percent risk of ruin on quarter FPDW with
perfect play. Wizard has a calculator but it looks like it's down:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
Let's see, Paymar
http://www.casino.com/videopoker/article.asp?id=439
says:
0.9993469^(10,000/1.25)= 0.54% ROR
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "whitejeeps" <whitejeeps@...> wrote:
1. Bankroll of $10,000 is a bit short for two people to play on even
at a quarter.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
> 1. Bankroll of $10,000 is a bit short for two people to play on
even
> at a quarter.
The number of people playing a particular bankroll has no effect on
risk of ruin of the bankroll, assuming everyone is honest and of
the
same skill level. That's why people form "teams". My guess is that
10
grand has about a half a percent risk of ruin on quarter FPDW with
perfect play. Wizard has a calculator but it looks like it's down:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
Let's see, Paymar
http://www.casino.com/videopoker/article.asp?id=439
says:
0.9993469^(10,000/1.25)= 0.54% ROR
That's correct. However, if you plan to tip $20 for a Royal, the
RoR rises to 0.63%. And if you make errors that average costing
40c per 500 hands, your RoR will be 1.0%.
In any event, a $10K bankroll looks pretty safe. And as you
correctly noted, it doesn't matter how many people play on that
bankroll.
--Dunbar
All calcs above done with Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker,
v1.5.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "whitejeeps" <whitejeeps@> wrote:
A bankroll of $10,000 is PLENTY for someone (or some two) who:
1. Plays nothing but FPDW.
2. Plays very accurately.
3. Chases as many promotions as possible.
4. Plays each session where the slot club benefits are best for that particular time - i.e., bonus point times.
5. Doesn't have to play for a room every night.
We did that for years and never were down over $3000. But I learned how to squeeze the most out of promotions and slot club benefits. We scored free rooms most of the time and covered all our food too. However, we had more casino choices back then, so it was easier. I'm not sure we could get free rooms indefinitely now like we did then. Although I know some "old hands" who are doing it - but they are VERY experienced. Some of the "tricks" are learned over a period of time.
We also did a lot of couponing - matchplays, etc. That is a good way to bulk up your bankroll.
________________
Jean $�ott
The new " FRUGAL VIDEO POKER
SCOUTING GUIDE" and other frugal
products are available at my Web site,
http://queenofcomps.com/.
If I remember rightly - from an article several years ago - Bob
Dancer always said, 3-5x the royal is good for the denomination you
are playing. I belive he said, if you are playing quarter FPDW - 3x
a royal is good, but quarter 10/7DB then you should have 5x the
royal because it was so much more volatile. I may have misquoted
him on this and if I did, I apologize but I always have gone with
that theory. I hope he will jump in on this; because hw had some
good points about it. Maybe jean can help on this too.
>
> That bankroll should be adequate for quarter single line play
with
perhaps a bit of quarter multi-play or fifty cents single line.
However, there are few multi-plays that are a positive play.
>
> However, you will have to play perfectly and only play positive
situations with an adequate margin.
>
>
>
> http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook/HA102225181033.aspx?
pid=CL100626971033
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>With a $10,000 bankroll I would probably play the quarter 10/7
progressive (.25% meter and .3125% CB) at the 4 Queens. One would
probably catch an occasional play on the 9/6 DDB five-way meter
bartops there also.I'd monitor the Fitz quarter 8/5 progressive and throw down on a
good
number.
I would also throw in some 50 cent Jokers at EC with .2% CB. The
machines play so slow that even if you ran badly it would take
months
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
to run through the money. Cash your card out every day you play
there. Don't let it build up or you could get the "we don't want
your busines" routine.I'd also play the ten-play Jokers at Santa Fe - if they are still
there.Then take your pick of any of the Stations casinos for FPDW.
Good luck.
3x is about right for FPDW and .25% cashback, 5x without cashback,
both result in about 10% ROR which some think is excessive risk but
about right for Kelly optimal betting. This assumes no mistakes in
play, machine or pilot, something most can't master.
10/7 DB AND 10/6 DDB ARE UNPLAYABLE WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL CASHBACK!
You can estimate Kelly optimal bankroll in bets with:
VARIANCE/(ER-1+cashback)
which is about 10% ROR
Or Dunbar's got a calculator for sale ...
More info at:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank.htm
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gamblinggrandma" <gamblinggrandma@...>
wrote:
If I remember rightly - from an article several years ago - Bob
Dancer always said, 3-5x the royal is good for the denomination you
are playing. I belive he said, if you are playing quarter FPDW - 3x
a royal is good, but quarter 10/7DB then you should have 5x the
royal because it was so much more volatile. I may have misquoted
him on this and if I did, I apologize but I always have gone with
that theory. I hope he will jump in on this; because hw had some
good points about it. Maybe jean can help on this too.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> >
> > That bankroll should be adequate for quarter single line play
with
> perhaps a bit of quarter multi-play or fifty cents single line.
> However, there are few multi-plays that are a positive play.
> >
> > However, you will have to play perfectly and only play positive
> situations with an adequate margin.
> >
> >
> >
> > http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook/HA102225181033.aspx?
> pid=CL100626971033
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
> With a $10,000 bankroll I would probably play the quarter 10/7
> progressive (.25% meter and .3125% CB) at the 4 Queens. One would
> probably catch an occasional play on the 9/6 DDB five-way meter
> bartops there also.
>
> I'd monitor the Fitz quarter 8/5 progressive and throw down on a
good
> number.
>
> I would also throw in some 50 cent Jokers at EC with .2% CB. The
> machines play so slow that even if you ran badly it would take
months
> to run through the money. Cash your card out every day you play
> there. Don't let it build up or you could get the "we don't want
> your busines" routine.
>
> I'd also play the ten-play Jokers at Santa Fe - if they are still
> there.
>
> Then take your pick of any of the Stations casinos for FPDW.
>
> Good luck.
>
I'm curious...
The vpFREE Glossary lists the Variance of FPDW at 25.8% and DB at 28.3%.
However, several posts in this thread imply that 10/7 DB requires a much
larger bankroll than FPDW. Does the extra 2.5% of variance really make that
much of a difference to ROR? And, if so, then can someone explain why?
Thanks!
SoundMessage
From: nightoftheiguana2000 <nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com>
Reply-To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2007 08:31:14 -0000
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll
3x is about right for FPDW and .25% cashback, 5x without cashback,
both result in about 10% ROR which some think is excessive risk but
about right for Kelly optimal betting. This assumes no mistakes in
play, machine or pilot, something most can't master.
10/7 DB AND 10/6 DDB ARE UNPLAYABLE WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL CASHBACK!
You can estimate Kelly optimal bankroll in bets with:
VARIANCE/(ER-1+cashback)
which is about 10% ROR
Or Dunbar's got a calculator for sale ...
More info at:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank.htm
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com> ,
"gamblinggrandma" <gamblinggrandma@...>
wrote:
If I remember rightly - from an article several years ago - Bob
Dancer always said, 3-5x the royal is good for the denomination you
are playing. I belive he said, if you are playing quarter FPDW - 3x
a royal is good, but quarter 10/7DB then you should have 5x the
royal because it was so much more volatile. I may have misquoted
him on this and if I did, I apologize but I always have gone with
that theory. I hope he will jump in on this; because hw had some
good points about it. Maybe jean can help on this too.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com> ,
"mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com> , kelso 1600
<kelso1600@> wrote:
> >
> > That bankroll should be adequate for quarter single line play
with
> perhaps a bit of quarter multi-play or fifty cents single line.
> However, there are few multi-plays that are a positive play.
> >
> > However, you will have to play perfectly and only play positive
> situations with an adequate margin.
> >
> >
> >
> > http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/outlook/HA102225181033.aspx?
> pid=CL100626971033
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
> With a $10,000 bankroll I would probably play the quarter 10/7
> progressive (.25% meter and .3125% CB) at the 4 Queens. One would
> probably catch an occasional play on the 9/6 DDB five-way meter
> bartops there also.
>
> I'd monitor the Fitz quarter 8/5 progressive and throw down on a
good
> number.
>
> I would also throw in some 50 cent Jokers at EC with .2% CB. The
> machines play so slow that even if you ran badly it would take
months
> to run through the money. Cash your card out every day you play
> there. Don't let it build up or you could get the "we don't want
> your busines" routine.
>
> I'd also play the ten-play Jokers at Santa Fe - if they are still
> there.
>
> Then take your pick of any of the Stations casinos for FPDW.
>
> Good luck.
>
The difference in bankroll needs for Double Bonus over Deuces is the lower return of Double Bonus -- Double Bonus is a barely positive game by itself.
http://onecare.live.com/standard/en-us/purchase/trial.aspx?s_cid=wl_hotmailnews
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Exactly. Bankroll is a function not only of variance but of expected
return and cashback as well. You can ballpark a figure with
approximate Kelly formulas:
26/.0076 = 28/(.0017+CB)
CB=.0065=0.65%
Meaning, roughly, for the same bankroll and same risk of ruin, you
need about 0.65% additional cashback to play FPDB compared to FPDW.
Hi there night
Just an observation and post is not intended to express anger
I wasn't going to even reply but... Sometime I wonder how how these
posts get all twisted up and then I see the light. It's the delete
feature. One can delete 1/2 of what whitejeeps said. The quote; "a
bit short for two people to play on even at a quarter." is indicated
as my full thought. The deleted part of my post #1; "Of course the
chances of the bankroll tanking is still the same even if two
machines are going at the same time." It should have been obviouse
I wasn't suggesting they both would play 2 machines. Maybe you had a
politician or lawyer hit the delete key for you? (Just kidding,
don't want to get the lawyers and politicos mad at me)
A bit short?? In my case if it's a 1/2% chance to go broke that
indicates to me one out of 200 will bust out. That is, assuming I
understood your post; 1/2% ROR. In my case the chances of being the
one in 200 to go in the tank is probably more like 50%. Even if It's
only one in 200 shot, I'm going to want a back door to get more
funds, in the event I need them. Therefore, the 10G IS a "bit"
short, at least, in my book. Ya can't have too much money. Ya can
have too little.
Team play?? The reason teams are able to operate is most of the team
players used to play on their own and were a "bit" underbankrolled.
Someone has to be the half percent! The fatter the bankroll the
smaller the ROR. There are team players that contribute to the
bankroll and there are team players who just play and are paid by
the hour or compensated some other way. Of course, paid players are
not done much today. If one tips an hourly team player for
progressive hits; bad move, as player may skew play toward
jackpots. Point is; there's more than one reason to form teams.
The important point of my post; even if it's only 1 in 200 chance of
going broke, a long stay in Vegas would be really uncomfortable for
me if I drew the short straw. I thought I'd pass it on.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it....
Have a good one....Jeep
.
.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
> 1. Bankroll of $10,000 is a bit short for two people to play on
even
> at a quarter.
The number of people playing a particular bankroll has no effect on
risk of ruin of the bankroll, assuming everyone is honest and of
the
same skill level. That's why people form "teams". My guess is that
10
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "whitejeeps" <whitejeeps@> wrote:
grand has about a half a percent risk of ruin on quarter FPDW with
perfect play. Wizard has a calculator but it looks like it's down:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
Let's see, Paymar
http://www.casino.com/videopoker/article.asp?id=439
says:
0.9993469^(10,000/1.25)= 0.54% ROR
That's a very clever and simple way of looking at things, NOTI. I
don't remember seeing it formulated that way before. The
"ballpark" turns out to be quite good for longterm RoR calcs.
I checked for both longterm and short-term RoR/Bankroll agreement using
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. FPDW with no cashback
agreed quite well with BP with 0.66% cashback*, especially for the
longterm. Then I thought maybe that's because the two games have
similar variance, so I looked at a big variance game, Double Double
Jackpot. (DDJ has var=38 compared to 26 and 28 for the other two
games.) I still got total agreement on longterm RoR, and just a little
more dispersion on short-term.
Here are my results:
LONGTERM BANKROLLS for Various RoR's Comparing FPDW (no cashback)
with Double Bonus (0.66% cashback) and Double Double Jackpot (0.78%
cashback)
GAME: FPDW DB,.66% DDJ,.78% % RoR Bankroll Bankroll Bankroll 25% 2,700
2,750 2,750 20% 3,100 3,150 3,150 15% 3,650 3,750 3,750 10% 4,450 4,500
4,500 5% 5,750 5,850 5,900 2% 7,500 7,650 7,650 1% 8,850 9,000 9,000
0.5% 10,150 10,350 10,350 0.1% 13,250 13,500 13,500 0.01% 17,650 18,000
18,000
You can see there's not much difference in the 3 games if you pick
cashback the way NOTI suggested. (Bankrolls above are calculated using
the jazbo/Sorokin polynomial risk equation.)
SHORT-TERM Results for the same 3 games as above 16 hours at 400
hands/hr, $2000 bankroll
FINAL BANK % CHANGE FPDW DB,.66%CB DDJ, .78%CB
0 lose 100% 0% 0% 0% 1 - 399 lose 80% to 99% 0% 0% 0% 400 - 799
lose 60% to 80% 0% 0% 0% 800 - 1199 lose 40% to 60% 0% 2% 4% 1200 -
1599 lose 20% to 40% 15% 16% 17% 1600 - 1999 lose up to 20% 39% 34%
29% 2000 - 2399 win up to 20% 25% 27% 23% 2400 - 2799 win 20% to 40%
11% 12% 14% 2800 - 3199 win 40% to 60% 6% 6% 7% 3200 - 3599 win 60%
to 80% 2% 3% 3% 3600 - 3999 win 80% to 99+% 1% 1% 1% 4000 + double
or more 0% 0% 1%
In the short-term comparison, the game with the highest variance, DDJ,
shows more dispersion than the other 2 games. While FPDW stayed within
20% of the starting bankroll 64% of the time, DDJ stayed within 20% of
the starting bankroll just 52% of the time**.
My conclusion is that NOTI's Kelly fraction method is an excellent
way to find how much cashback it would take to give the same longterm
bankroll-to-risk relationship as another game. However, it isn't
as well-suited for determining short-term (or session) bankroll. (I
should note that NOTI never suggested it WAS useful for short-term
bankroll assessment).
One final observation is to note how much difference there is between
longterm and short-term bankroll considerations. A $2000 bankroll is
completely adequate for a 16-hour stretch of play, but it would not be
enough for a longterm bankroll for any of the 3 games above. --Dunbar
* I used 0.66% instead of NOTI's 0.65% because that's the Kelly
figure I got when using variance and EV figures with more significant
figures (from WinPoker) than the quick "26" and "28"
that NOTI used.
** each short-term RoR calc consisted of 20,000 trials.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Exactly. Bankroll is a function not only of variance but of expected
return and cashback as well. You can ballpark a figure with
approximate Kelly formulas:26/.0076 = 28/(.0017+CB)
CB=.0065=0.65%Meaning, roughly, for the same bankroll and same risk of ruin, you
need about 0.65% additional cashback to play FPDB compared to FPDW.
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