Some new computations give a minimum royal cycle of 23160.2 based
on payoffs of 23160 units for a royal and tiny payoffs of 0.00001 units for
any other hand. This is slightly shorter than the cycle of 23164.7 that I've
used in recent posts. The ER for this strategy is 53.62% making it almost
as bad as playing the lottery.
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On Sunday 06 August 2006 11:56 am, cdfsrule wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@...> wrote:
> On Saturday 05 August 2006 2:37 pm, Harry Porter wrote:
> > Steve Jacobs wrote:
>
> Let me ask you this -- do you _ever_ keep track of the actual number
> of hands you play during a session, and compute the exact ER that
> you achieved for that session? I'll bet you don't, and I'll bet there
> are very few player who do (I'm tempted to claim "none" here, but then I
> think of Monk...). Why? Because players don't REALLY care about about
> the number of hands they've played and how that relates to their
> performance.I guess you should call me "Monk". I compute the number of hands I play
from my coin- in. I know my win/loss in dollars or bets, and therefore I
know the exact ER for every session (exact, in so far as the "points" are
indeed accurate; hence I periodically manually check them). I'd also guess
that others here do or could do the same computaion (since they keep track
of their win/loss and points)-- but it's only a guess.A data-based observation: over more than 10 years of play, I have noticed
that most (largest percentage) of my wins and and most of my losses (per
session) come from sessions in which my return is FAR from the MER EV.
That is, what hurts the most is big losses, and what seems to help the most
is big wins. If I subtracted a few tenths of a percent in EV from my near
EV returns (and left the big win/loss sessions alone), my overall return
wouldn't be that different. I'm not sure what that means (it's admittedly
a small sample of data!). Perhaps these results have occuured becuase I
tend to stop playing only after a big loss or a big win (and only rarely
becuase I runout of time!) -- but nonetheless, I think I would take a small
EV hit to reduce my RF cycyle (and maybe event a small EV hit to reduce the
cost of the royal, but maybe not). THe small EV hit wouldn't be a large
impact on my big losses, but may increase the rate at which I make the big
wins (and then stop playing?)Ok, so, for JoB what is the Min RF-cycle strategy (and PDF) ? I'd like to
do some simulations...