I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
material for gambling in the short term, I do not want to get into the
Advantage player vs, Rob Singer discussion. As a retired Business
Technical Exec I can handle the theory as theory in math or written in
laymen's terms. Might this august group have any suggestions of things
that might be available through the Gambler's Book store in Las Vegas
where I buy all my books or some other source.
Any Books Available on Short Term Play.
<<I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
material for gambling in the short term>>
If you can hang on for about 6-8 weeks longer, "Frugal Video Poker" will be out and this contains two chapters on the subject, with a neat way to figure this out using the Frugal VP software.
···
________________________________________
Jean $�ott
New book coming this summer
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
<<I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five
years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
material for gambling in the short term>>If you can hang on for about 6-8 weeks longer, "Frugal Video Poker"
will be
out and this contains two chapters on the subject, with a neat way
to figure
this out using the Frugal VP software.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott
New book coming this summer
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
Jean: Exellent. I look forward to your new book. As a result of a
recent win, I bought your book on "taxes" which was exellent. I
found out that I was not filling out my Fed form optimally for the
last two years. I will use your method this year. I have to decide
whether it is worth using an amended return for the past two years.
Thanks again and congrats on your recent big score at Caesars. Denny
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:
It's not a book, but perhaps your questions might be answered by my
software, Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker.
DRA-VP will give you bankroll-to-risk information for sessions of
any length. 24 video poker games are included, but the program will
accept (and remember) any single-line game for which you have the
paytable and hand frequencies.
If this interests you, you may want to wait for the upgrade that
will be available Aug 9, or ask www.shopLVA.com to send you v1.5.
The upgrade gives more info on the distribution of possible outcomes
after a session.
--Dunbar
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker,
http://shoplva.com/ProductDetail.cfm?ItemNumber=1463
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...>
wrote:
I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five
years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP
for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any
reference
material for gambling in the short term, I do not want to get
into
the
Advantage player vs, Rob Singer discussion. As a retired Business
Technical Exec I can handle the theory as theory in math or
written
in
laymen's terms. Might this august group have any suggestions of
things
that might be available through the Gambler's Book store in Las
Vegas
···
where I buy all my books or some other source.
<<As a result of a
recent win, I bought your book on "taxes" which was excellent........and congrats on your recent big score at Caesars.
Thanx to you and to all who have conveyed their congrats!!
···
________________________________________
Jean $�ott
New book coming this summer
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
Without any more information, and probably even with more information,
I would guess that Dunbar's is a good suggestion.
However, it might help if you could describe a little more of what you
are looking for? What do you consider "short term?" An hour? A
week? For some of us, a year is still short term. Do you want to
estimate the bankroll you need to play 1000 hands of a particular
game? Do you want to know what you might win or lose over those
hands? Do you want a full PDF plot of possible outcomes?
I am sure there are many tools available, and you will probably
receive even more suggestions if you can give a little more detail on
what you hope to find.
- John
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
It's not a book, but perhaps your questions might be answered by my
software, Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker.DRA-VP will give you bankroll-to-risk information for sessions of
any length. 24 video poker games are included, but the program will
accept (and remember) any single-line game for which you have the
paytable and hand frequencies.If this interests you, you may want to wait for the upgrade that
will be available Aug 9, or ask www.shopLVA.com to send you v1.5.
The upgrade gives more info on the distribution of possible outcomes
after a session.--Dunbar
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker,
http://shoplva.com/ProductDetail.cfm?ItemNumber=1463--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@>
wrote:
>
> I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five
years
> or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP
for
> higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any
reference
> material for gambling in the short term, I do not want to get
into
the
> Advantage player vs, Rob Singer discussion. As a retired Business
> Technical Exec I can handle the theory as theory in math or
written
in
> laymen's terms. Might this august group have any suggestions of
things
> that might be available through the Gambler's Book store in Las
Vegas
> where I buy all my books or some other source.
>
Isn't all play really for the short term/long term as the majority of
us have no idea when we might no longer be around to enjoy anything. 
I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
material for gambling in the short term, I do not want to get into
the
Advantage player vs, Rob Singer discussion. As a retired Business
Technical Exec I can handle the theory as theory in math or written
in
laymen's terms. Might this august group have any suggestions of
things
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:
that might be available through the Gambler's Book store in Las Vegas
where I buy all my books or some other source.
In many ways, this is correct. That is why I seem to find the Dunbar VP Analysis software
so extraordinarily useful. I have become very "task oriented" with my VP play, whether it
be for a couple of hours, a day, a trip, or an entire year made up of several trips. By
computing the bankroll requirement to have a 0% ROR for a particular game/
denomination/number of hands combination, I can feel confident that I wil play the
desired number of hands, or get the required amount of coin-in, without running out of
money.
.....bl
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "missdeuces" <missdeuces@...> wrote:
Isn't all play really for the short term/long term as the majority of
us have no idea when we might no longer be around to enjoy anything.
all depends how you define long term
my definition would be the N0 number
N0 = variance / (ER + Cashback - 1)^2 hands
for FPDW + .25% Cashback:
N0 = 26 / (1.0075 + .25% -1)^2 = 260,000 hands
therefore, less than 260,000 hands is short term, more is long term
if you can't play at least that many hands, you probably shouldn't
take the gamble
···
at N0 hands your chances of winning are 84% and your chances improve as you play more hands but are worse if you play less --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "missdeuces" <missdeuces@...> wrote:
Isn't all play really for the short term/long term as the majority of
us have no idea when we might no longer be around to enjoy anything.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@> wrote:
>
> I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five years
> or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
> higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
> material for gambling in the short term, I do not want to get into
the
> Advantage player vs, Rob Singer discussion. As a retired Business
> Technical Exec I can handle the theory as theory in math or written
in
> laymen's terms. Might this august group have any suggestions of
things
> that might be available through the Gambler's Book store in Las Vegas
> where I buy all my books or some other source.
>
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
all depends how you define long term
my definition would be the N0 number
N0 = variance / (ER + Cashback - 1)^2 hands
for FPDW + .25% Cashback:
N0 = 26 / (1.0075 + .25% -1)^2 = 260,000 hands
therefore, less than 260,000 hands is short term, more is long term
if you can't play at least that many hands, you probably shouldn't
take the gamble
at N0 hands your chances of winning are 84% and your chances improve
as you play more hands but are worse if you play less
Dear Sir:
In my case for FPDW, which I don't play, your "No" number is about
385 hours of play for me, which is about three Vegas trips. Since I
generally play $25 x 5 coin games which are around (99%) + .20 CB,
+RFB the "No" number is undefined since the denominator is less than
zero. In spite of this, if any else knows of any references,(even
if they seem weird) as one author would say, please let me know.
Thank you. Denny
Denny wrote: In spite of this, if any else knows of any
references,(even
if they seem weird) as one author would say, please let me know.
Perhaps this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire
thread) but you seem to be a perfect candidate for Rob Singer's book. He
plays under-100% games and his advice assumes you are always in the
short run. And you don't seem to find being weird or
outside-of-mainstream to be a disqualification.
Bob Dancer
For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
Rob's book is definately an interesting read, but he really doesn't go into the strategy there. Denny can however, find the complete strategy, free of charge, at Rob's web site - VPtruth(dot)com
Bob Dancer <bob.dancer@compdance.com> wrote: Denny wrote: In spite of this, if any else knows of any
references,(even
if they seem weird) as one author would say, please let me know.
Perhaps this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire
thread) but you seem to be a perfect candidate for Rob Singer's book. He
plays under-100% games and his advice assumes you are always in the
short run. And you don't seem to find being weird or
outside-of-mainstream to be a disqualification.
Bob Dancer
For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
I Never Met A Winner That Didn't Bet - Joe The Craps Dealer
···
---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail Beta.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Denny wrote: In spite of this, if any else knows of any
references,(even
if they seem weird) as one author would say, please let me know.Perhaps this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire
thread) but you seem to be a perfect candidate for Rob Singer's
book. He
plays under-100% games and his advice assumes you are always in the
short run. And you don't seem to find being weird or
outside-of-mainstream to be a disqualification.Bob Dancer
For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
Bob:
Beside all of your writings, I have read Singer's too. As I have
told him, there needs to be a book written by someone like a PHD
candidate at UNLV on what can be said about short term play who
remains untouched by all the Singer controversy.
As an aside I certainly vouch for your mental and physical skills as
I was in a contest at the Palms a couple years back where you won
$20k. Your endurance is remarkable. I still remember you sitting in
the doorway of the high stakes room, when shortly after you sat down
to eat lunch at the machine, some lady walked in and started playing
on one of the two machines you reserved. You may remember this
caused a little exitement. I still have your autograph. Denny
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:
denflo60 wrote:
I have read all available books on Video Poker in the last five years
or so. As one who comes to Vegas 4-6 times a year and plays VP for
higher stakes, I was wondering if any one can suggest any reference
material for gambling in the short term
Denny,
I know of no general short-term gambling reference.
There may be published material that specificially addresses certain
short-term play considerations/goals. What aspect of "short term"
play are you most interested in?
- Harry
<<I know of no general short-term gambling reference.>>
That's why I gave the subject two chapters in "Frugal Video Poker."
···
________________________________________
Jean $�ott
New book coming this summer
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
Jean:
I know you don't want to give away too much before the book is out,
but can you give us a few teasers about what you cover? How much
detail? What games? I would love to hear what you have to say on the
subject.
- John
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:
<<I know of no general short-term gambling reference.>>
That's why I gave the subject two chapters in "Frugal Video Poker."
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott
New book coming this summer
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
N0 is always defined, in the case of a breakeven game, it becomes
infinite, in the case of a negative expectation game, the expectation
is negative rather than positive. I'll assume you're playing 9/6
double double bonus with .2% CB: N0 = 42/(.99+.002-1)^2= 656,250 hands
meaning your chances of net *losing* (.99+.002-1 < 0) are 84% once you
have played that many hands. That's assuming you are playing a perfect
or near perfect strategy that will yield an average return of .99,
mistakes will lower that number. Gambling with negative expectation is
a folly, yet people do it, of course people become heroin addicts also.
The classic trick to winning in the short term is the Martingale:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
However, people who use this system, other than for tournaments, are
generally just fooling themselves. With the system, you mostly win
small amounts, however the one time you lose you lose big which wipes
out the many small wins you have made.
In case you don't know, the wizard is Michael Shackleford, Adjunct
Professor of Casino Math at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> all depends how you define long term
> my definition would be the N0 number
> N0 = variance / (ER + Cashback - 1)^2 hands
> for FPDW + .25% Cashback:
> N0 = 26 / (1.0075 + .25% -1)^2 = 260,000 hands
> therefore, less than 260,000 hands is short term, more is long term
> if you can't play at least that many hands, you probably shouldn't
> take the gamble
> at N0 hands your chances of winning are 84% and your chances improve
> as you play more hands but are worse if you play lessDear Sir:
In my case for FPDW, which I don't play, your "No" number is about
385 hours of play for me, which is about three Vegas trips. Since I
generally play $25 x 5 coin games which are around (99%) + .20 CB,
+RFB the "No" number is undefined since the denominator is less than
zero. In spite of this, if any else knows of any references,(even
if they seem weird) as one author would say, please let me know.
Thank you. Denny
I don't think this is a good suggestion. Like the lady told Rodney
dangerfield when he asked if it was "good for her" - I don't think
this is good for anybody.
There are ways to investigate short-term questions without resorting
to magic systems.
Thanks,
Skip
www.vpplayer.com
vpFREE discount: http://www.vpplayer.com/GROUP/vpfree.html
(use vpfree/vpfree)
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:
Perhaps this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire
thread) but you seem to be a perfect candidate for Rob Singer's book. He
plays under-100% games and his advice assumes you are always in the
short run. And you don't seem to find being weird or
outside-of-mainstream to be a disqualification.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...>
wrote:
Gambling with negative expectation is a folly, yet people do it, of course people become
heroin addicts also.
Perhaps... but it seems a little too assuming and a bit harmfull to us advantage players. I
hope this doesn't prevoke a fight, but I prefer: "Gambling with negative expectation CAN
be folly (though not necessarily)"
(1) People may have very good, rational, well-thought out reasons for making a negative
EV-bet. If so, their actions are not folly, even if you don't agree with their actions. For
example, someone might highly value a certain payoff that is only available from a
negative EV game. While this payoff might not be valuable to you (or ME!), it can provide
value to the bettor beyonds its real dollar value (used in the EV computation). This is the
basis of so called "utility theory" of gamblings/investments. Sometimes, people even
sacrifice EV in favor of increased volatility. Indeed, I find myself bemused at VP players
who prefer a lower EV, higher variance situation over a higher EV lower variance one. [Ex;
'Dissing' boring and easy to play at 100% accuracy Pick'em poker +CB to play a negative EV
situation that's more 'fun']. Or as some other folks here might like to say "EV isn't
eveything and it certainly isn't the only thing"
(2) Some people win a despite with their negative EV bets. It's a fact of life. So their
negative EV bet wasn't a costly undertaling and wasn't ruinious-- After their win, it may be
it bit loose to call their actions folly-- I guess it's better to say it before hand!
(3) If it wasn't for all these folks and their negative EV bets we might not have anything to
play!
Skip wrote, concerning my suggestion that Denny consult Rob Singer's
book: I don't think this is a good suggestion. Like the lady told Rodney
dangerfield when he asked if it was "good for her" - I don't think this
is good for anybody. There are ways to investigate short-term questions
without resorting to magic systems.
I disagree. Investigating short term questions falls under the domain of
"money management" principles. Most mathematically knowledgeable people
will tell you that these principles are basically hogwash. When a
non-mathematical person like Jean says she wrote two chapters on it,
people should know up front that whatever she says will not come close
to addressing a subject that is basically not addressable. She is
popular here and will sell a lot of books to people here, but whatever
she says on this subject will have no more intellectual rigor than what
Skip refers to as Singer's magic system. At least Singer has enough
mathematical background to KNOW he is peddling snake oil. Jean doesn't.
She boasts about her ineptitude at math and tells people she is NOT a
video poker expert (and on that I agree with her 100%), and yet she
tries to convince people that she can still write authoritatively about
an applied-mathematical subject like video poker. Does anybody else find
this amusing? (Should anyone take the point of view that I'm picking on
Jean out the blue, please keep in mind that at least twice in this
thread she has claimed that she has the answer to this question in her
various books. To suggest that I am highly skeptical and believe people
should be warned about such claims is putting it mildly.)
There are a lot of really bright mathematically-oriented people
addressing gambling subjects. There are gaming professors at
universities such as UNLV, UNR (Reno), and elsewhere constantly trying
to find a new subject to write about. There are gaming journals. There
are gaming summits. If this subject were addressable intelligently, you
can bet that there would be A LOT of authoritative books and articles on
it. After all, it's what people want to know. People want this in the
same way that they want a super pill that would make them lose 50 pounds
immediately, safely, and with neither effort nor bad side effects.
People would pay bunches for that pill --- but it doesn't exist. Denny's
search for short-term solutions is very analogous to this.
Denny seemed not to care about mathematical rigor. I posted the Singer
suggestion before Denny identified himself sufficiently so that I now
know who he is. He is friendly towards me and my work, but I still think
he is searching for an elixir that doesn't exist.
Bob Dancer
For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.