Johnny,Thanks for taking the time to make a serious comment on my post.First,I'm not trying to dispute that the higher EV is better.The 1-5 coin shuffle is just something that I decided to try and see how it would work.I realize that I have'nt changed the mathematics of the game in any way.My motivation was being a little discouraged with long streaks and lots of trips of losing sessions.Like you said "The way video poker works, if you don't hit a royal or get a boatload of quads, you will lose money at JOB."My goal was to try and get a greater % of winning sessions on sessions that don't include a Royal or lots of Quads.I usually try to set a goal of $50 to $100 ahead on a session.(25 cent)
I also understand that betting patterns don't change the EV of the machine.Waiting for a win ,then betting 5 coin is just 1 of many arbitrary ways of trying to get in on a hot streak.There's no way to predict a hot streak,but before you can have a streak of 3 or 4 or 5 or 10,you've got to start with one. I could have chosen any number of ways to do this The idea being trying to avoid losing 5 coins on those long streaks of no-win hands.
So far, my results have been pretty good,but I'm not kidding myself,In the long run the lower EV of 1 coin will probably catch up with me.I learn the computer strategies for each game I play(and by the way,I do adjust my strategy for 1 coin.),but I'm just a recreational player.Maybe,it just makes me feel like I'm doing something to help myself in an otherwise negative situation.Believe me if I lived in Vegas,I'd be playing 5 coin only in those positive EV machines.
Qitting when you're ahead doesn't change EV,but doesn't it mean that you're going to have more winning sessions especially if your goal is modest.The not counting Royals statement means winning sessions without a Royal.
You said,What is the money management component? Betting less money? You can do that playing full coin but just playing slower or pausing between hands.
Using my (arbitrary)definition of Hot and Cold streaks; Let's say I just had 5 wins in a row then I lose 1 and drop to 1 coin.Now let's say the next 10 hands are losers,I'll save 4 coins per hand.If I just slow down my play and play 5 coin,I'll lose 5 coins per hand only more slowly.So I don't see how that's the same thing.
Marc
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-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Nov 4, 2011 3:12 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
Marc,
I'm going to address a couple of your statements below.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:
I think your friend has a valid point.I used to play 5 coins all the time,but no more.I hit AC about 12 times a year for 2 or 3 days.I play about 2 4 hour sessions per day.I like to play the 25 cent 9/6 Jacks Progressive at Caesars most of the time.When I always played max coin,unless I hit a Royal or got more than my fair share of Quads for the session,it's almost always a losing session.I've had Royal dry spell for as much as a year and lost every session.
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The way video poker works, if you don't hit a royal or get a boatload of quads, you will lose money at JOB. If you play short coin, you will still lose money. You will lose less money because you are playing less coin in but will lose a greater percentage since you are playing a lower ev game. With a progressive, short coin play is even more detrimental. You would be better off playing full coin more slowly than the short coin shuffle.
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I now use a 1-5 coin strategy.If I have a winning hand(no matter what it is),I move up to max coins.What does this do for me? It helps me catch hot streaks and avoid those long losing streaks that we all know about.Sure,I give up the first win at 5 coins and risk hitting the Royal at 1 coin,but i'm OK with that because those 4 coin savings add up.And most of the time the first win is a High pair which is'nt a true win but a wash and statistically counts as zero.So in that case,you don't give up anything at 1 coin.
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I don't know how to catch a hot streak or even how to define a hot streak. My guess is you would also have a hard time giving a clear cut definition to a hot streak. When does a hot streak start, when does it end, etc.
If you think by some betting pattern, you can increase the EV of the game you are playing, that is just flat out wrong. If you believe the machines are fair and random, then hand A does not affect hand A+1. If past hands do influence future hands, you should run not walk away from that machine.
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I've used this strategy for over 3 years now and overall I'm up quite a bit.I've had winning sessions over 50% of the time not counting Royals.
It's easy to have a winning session. All you have to do is stop once you are ahead. I don't know the exact number but in a very high percentage of sessions, you will be up at some point. Quitting when you are ahead x coins does not change the EV of the game. Neither does quitting after 500 hands, or 72 hands or after hitting back to back flushes, etc. The expected value ( in percentage)is the same no matter when you start or stop.
I'd be very interested in seeing your results log. Just because you are ahead in 50% of your sessions does not mean you are ahead money for the year. I don't know what the 'not counting royals' statement means.
Here is an interesting experiment to run. Pick a betting strategy ( play 1 coin til you hit a winner, then bet max coin til you lose 4 hands in a row and repeat for example). If you run enough samples, the long term result of any betting pattern will be the same as any other.
I've hit 6 royals in that time(2 at 1 coin in).
Call it luck,but in the real world of gambling,it's worked well for me.I feel that cutting losses when things are'nt going well is just as important as maximizing your wins when things are going well.
But you don't know when things are going well or going poorly on a hand to hand basis. Let's say you play 8000 hands of quarter max coin JOB and are down $1000. This a very bad result ( -10%). Do you think the expected value of the next 8000 hands is somehow different from the previous 8000 hands? The results will be different but the expectation isn't. Do you think the machines are set up to make the currently played hand somehow be a function of the previously played hands? How would that work?
All you EV purists out there are probably going to balk at turning a 99.54% EV game into a 98.37% EV game is stupid.I't's not quite that bad because about 50% of the time you're playing 5 coins with this strategy,so when you average the 2 EV's together you're probably at about 99%( I have'nt done the precise math).For AC standards,99% is considered playable.And in 9/6 we're looking at a negative EV anyway.
Playing 1 coin per hand, at quarters, you lose $0.0041 per hand. Playing 5 coins per hand, you lose $0.0057 per hand. So, playing short coin, you lose less per hand than 5 coin. Playing 2,3 or 4 coins, you actually lose more per hand even though you are betting less.
JOB is 99.54% at full coin. It is 98.37% at short coin. Both are negative I agree but one game is 1.2% worse than the other.
For me giving up a little EV is worth being able to have a direct money managment component in your gambling arsinal.
What is the money management component? Betting less money? You can do that playing full coin but just playing slower or pausing between hands.
Now,if your main reason for playing VP is hitting a Royal or you would would go mentally or emotionally ballistic if you hit one at 1 coin,I would'nt recomend this strategy.
Do you at least incorporate the strategy changes for short coin play? If not, are playing at less than 98.37%
If there were positive EV games available in AC like FP All American or FPDW available,I probably would stick to 5 coin in since you already have a mathematical advantage.
Whether you have an edge or not, short coin play costs you about 1.2%.
Marc
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