Always Play 5 Coins

[JZ1]

Marc wrote:

>I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak......>

Tom wrote:

You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. ...... What evidence do you have that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example, analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row? ..................

I'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

For curiousity sake, if you have the patience to do so, record your plays after the first 'win in the streak'. That is, sit down and start playing. Whenever you win a hand at 1 coin, record the results for the 5 coin bets that follow. If you play long enough, you will find that those hands have the same hand distribution as the 1 coin hands.

The only thing you are doing with your method is playing some percentage of the hands with 1 coin and some with 5 coins. Let's say it works out that in a 2000 hand session, you play 1200 hands with 1 coin and 800 hands with 5 coins. Your expected value is exactly the same as if you had played the first 800 hands with 1 coin and the next 1200 hands with 5 coins. It is also the same as if you had played 8 hands with 1 coin followed by 12 hands with 5 coins and repeated the process. Overall, you will have played x hands with 1 coin and y hands with 5 coins.

Just because you don't lose 7 hands in a row at 5 coins does not mean you have lost less. It is just ordered differently. Let's say you play 10 hands at full coin. Losing 8 in a row and then hitting back to back full houses has the same return as losing 5 in a row, hitting a full house, losing 3 in a row and then hitting a full house. The order of your results does not affect your results and any betting pattern you choose has its EV determined by how many hands you play at one coin and how many you play at 5 coins. That's it. When you bet 1 coin and when you bet 5 coins does not matter. If it does, then the machines are not random.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

[marc.carfi]

l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 1:05 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Marc wrote:

>I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak......>

Tom wrote:

You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. ...... What evidence do you have that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example, analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row? ..................

I'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

For curiousity sake, if you have the patience to do so, record your plays after the first 'win in the streak'. That is, sit down and start playing. Whenever you win a hand at 1 coin, record the results for the 5 coin bets that follow. If you play long enough, you will find that those hands have the same hand distribution as the 1 coin hands.

The only thing you are doing with your method is playing some percentage of the hands with 1 coin and some with 5 coins. Let's say it works out that in a 2000 hand session, you play 1200 hands with 1 coin and 800 hands with 5 coins. Your expected value is exactly the same as if you had played the first 800 hands with 1 coin and the next 1200 hands with 5 coins. It is also the same as if you had played 8 hands with 1 coin followed by 12 hands with 5 coins and repeated the process. Overall, you will have played x hands with 1 coin and y hands with 5 coins.

Just because you don't lose 7 hands in a row at 5 coins does not mean you have lost less. It is just ordered differently. Let's say you play 10 hands at full coin. Losing 8 in a row and then hitting back to back full houses has the same return as losing 5 in a row, hitting a full house, losing 3 in a row and then hitting a full house. The order of your results does not affect your results and any betting pattern you choose has its EV determined by how many hands you play at one coin and how many you play at 5 coins. That's it. When you bet 1 coin and when you bet 5 coins does not matter. If it does, then the machines are not random.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Harry_Porter]

Marc,

Certainly you're among the more schizophrenic players I've encountered ...

You demonstrate that you not only grasp the underlying math, but fully accept it. Yet, rather than trust the math, like an intrepid surfer you seek out a wave of good hands that will make you a winner.

But i get that this is what works for you (so far), and there's little that's going sway you into abandoning this play style.

Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".

Most 5-coin players accept that vp is largely a losing game over the medium haul until they pull ahead with a 800:1 payout RF. You continually put yourself at risk that when you hit, it'll be a 250:1 (or other shortcoin) payoff. Bottom line, this risk, inherent in your play, is what will make your game a losing one in the not so long run.

- H.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong .

[JZ1]

johhnyzee wrote....

>l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

Marc wrote .......

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

What information does a streak give you?

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

Maybe then we will make a little headway in this discussion. Right now, it sounds like you are saying streaks exist, betting during a streak is profitable but you don't know when a streak occurs and the probability of any hand during a streak is the same as any other hand. These are mutually exclusive statements.

Marc, if betting 1 coin til you win and then betting 5 coins on a win makes you happy, that's great. There is no advantage to doing so besides betting less money and you can accomplish that by other means. I believe knowledge is power so if you understand your bet pattern and understand that it does not give you any advantage and want to do so anyway, that is certainly your choice. I just want to make sure it is an informed choice.

[S11]

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Stardust, the Sahara, and many others. But Danny’s Slot Country (Boulder Highway, Las Vegas) is no
more.
It’s now a Dotty’s.

Danny and Dotty are unavailable for comment.

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[marc.carfi]

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Betting 5 coin after a win is just the way I've chosen to play the 1-5 coin shuffle.I needed some sort of trigger to to switch between 1 & 5.Choosing to do it after win seemed logical to me because any streak(if it's going to happen) must start with one.I didn't choose betting 5 after a loss for example because I don't know how many losses might occur before I get the first win and I'd be betting 5 on however many losses occur before the first win.Again one win does not predict a streak but any win streak must start with one win.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

In the context of this discussion: Consecutive wins or consecutive losses of whatever length.

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

A winning streak must always start with a win(now past) and end with a loss.And visa versa.

What information does a streak give you?

When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak,but you don't know if it's going to continue end with a loss on the next bet.

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 12:09 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

johhnyzee wrote....

>l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

Marc wrote .......

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

What information does a streak give you?

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

Maybe then we will make a little headway in this discussion. Right now, it sounds like you are saying streaks exist, betting during a streak is profitable but you don't know when a streak occurs and the probability of any hand during a streak is the same as any other hand. These are mutually exclusive statements.

Marc, if betting 1 coin til you win and then betting 5 coins on a win makes you happy, that's great. There is no advantage to doing so besides betting less money and you can accomplish that by other means. I believe knowledge is power so if you understand your bet pattern and understand that it does not give you any advantage and want to do so anyway, that is certainly your choice. I just want to make sure it is an informed choice.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Bruce_Cohen]

The Casino I play VP at used to have one FPJoB machine in the nonsmoking section.
It was really cool because it paid the same ratio Royal on any number of coins, 1-5
I always played it at 1 coin because of that, and because I was just a beginner and
trying to take my time getting my feet wet.

The problem was that other people would be at the machine when I went to play.

There was an 'I Dream of Jeannie' machine right next to the Job Machine, so I would
play that when waiting so I could pounce on the VP machine when it was vacated.

I noticed that I ran through my planned Jeannie bankroll $20, roughly twice as
fast as it took for the other player to finish, so I decided to cut my play in 1/2

So I did a 1. 2, 3, 4, 5 shuffle, without regard to the 5 coin jackpot.

I found my money did last twice as long, since I was betting 1/2 on average, of course.
And I had just as much fun with Jeannie calling me 'Master'.

Often it's not about the math or the extra fraction of a percentage.

Many VP players will take a tiny bit lower EV when they get a juicy looking
longshot, I think Rob Singer says take the shot and so do some others.

And some, like Mister Dancer are religious about the percentages.

I've also bet into 'hot streaks' and walked out on losing streaks.

Sometimes common sense, fun or intuition 'trumps' the math if it's close.

________________________________
From: "marccarfi@aol.com" <marccarfi@aol.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 12:01 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Betting 5 coin after a win is just the way I've chosen to play the 1-5 coin shuffle.I needed some sort of trigger to to switch between 1 & 5.Choosing to do it after win seemed logical to me because any streak(if it's going to happen) must start with one.I didn't choose betting 5 after a loss for example because I don't know how many losses might occur before I get the first win and I'd be betting 5 on however many losses occur before the first win.Again one win does not predict a streak but any win streak must start with one win.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

In the context of this discussion: Consecutive wins or consecutive losses of whatever length.

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

A winning streak must always start with a win(now past) and end with a loss.And visa versa.

What information does a streak give you?

When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak,but you don't know if it's going to continue end with a loss on the next bet.

Marc

To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 12:09 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

johhnyzee wrote....

>l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

Marc wrote .......

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

What information does a streak give you?

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

Maybe then we will make a little headway in this discussion. Right now, it sounds like you are saying streaks exist, betting during a streak is profitable but you don't know when a streak occurs and the probability of any hand during a streak is the same as any other hand. These are mutually exclusive statements.

Marc, if betting 1 coin til you win and then betting 5 coins on a win makes you happy, that's great. There is no advantage to doing so besides betting less money and you can accomplish that by other means. I believe knowledge is power so if you understand your bet pattern and understand that it does not give you any advantage and want to do so anyway, that is certainly your choice. I just want to make sure it is an informed choice.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>

[marc.carfi]

Bruce,I wish they had some of thoes machines here in AC.

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Bruce Cohen <brucedcohen2002@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 3:14 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

The Casino I play VP at used to have one FPJoB machine in the nonsmoking section.
It was really cool because it paid the same ratio Royal on any number of coins, 1-5
I always played it at 1 coin because of that, and because I was just a beginner and
trying to take my time getting my feet wet.

The problem was that other people would be at the machine when I went to play.

There was an 'I Dream of Jeannie' machine right next to the Job Machine, so I would
play that when waiting so I could pounce on the VP machine when it was vacated.

I noticed that I ran through my planned Jeannie bankroll $20, roughly twice as
fast as it took for the other player to finish, so I decided to cut my play in 1/2

So I did a 1. 2, 3, 4, 5 shuffle, without regard to the 5 coin jackpot.

I found my money did last twice as long, since I was betting 1/2 on average, of course.
And I had just as much fun with Jeannie calling me 'Master'.

Often it's not about the math or the extra fraction of a percentage.

Many VP players will take a tiny bit lower EV when they get a juicy looking
longshot, I think Rob Singer says take the shot and so do some others.

And some, like Mister Dancer are religious about the percentages.

I've also bet into 'hot streaks' and walked out on losing streaks.

Sometimes common sense, fun or intuition 'trumps' the math if it's close.

________________________________
From: "marccarfi@aol.com" <marccarfi@aol.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 12:01 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Betting 5 coin after a win is just the way I've chosen to play the 1-5 coin shuffle.I needed some sort of trigger to to switch between 1 & 5.Choosing to do it after win seemed logical to me because any streak(if it's going to happen) must start with one.I didn't choose betting 5 after a loss for example because I don't know how many losses might occur before I get the first win and I'd be betting 5 on however many losses occur before the first win.Again one win does not predict a streak but any win streak must start with one win.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

In the context of this discussion: Consecutive wins or consecutive losses of whatever length.

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

A winning streak must always start with a win(now past) and end with a loss.And visa versa.

What information does a streak give you?

When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak,but you don't know if it's going to continue end with a loss on the next bet.

Marc

-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 12:09 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

johhnyzee wrote....

>l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.

Marc wrote .......

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.

Marc, now I'm confused. If each hand has the same probability of occurrence, why bet 5 after a win? There is no advantage to doing so. If the probability of a winning hand is somehow greater after your one coin 'streak starter win', then the machines aren't random.

Maybe we need some definitions:

What is a streak?

What starts a streak and what ends a streak?

What information does a streak give you?

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

Maybe then we will make a little headway in this discussion. Right now, it sounds like you are saying streaks exist, betting during a streak is profitable but you don't know when a streak occurs and the probability of any hand during a streak is the same as any other hand. These are mutually exclusive statements.

Marc, if betting 1 coin til you win and then betting 5 coins on a win makes you happy, that's great. There is no advantage to doing so besides betting less money and you can accomplish that by other means. I believe knowledge is power so if you understand your bet pattern and understand that it does not give you any advantage and want to do so anyway, that is certainly your choice. I just want to make sure it is an informed choice.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[marc.carfi]

.Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".

Harry,You're right about that.I hated making trip after trip to AC and losing.

For me advantage play means VP with a positive EV which you won't find in AC.And if you want to include cash back and comps,It's getting harder since casinos here are constantly cutting back on what they're giving out.

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vp_wiz <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 6:47 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:

Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong .

Marc,

Certainly you're among the more schizophrenic players I've encountered ...

You demonstrate that you not only grasp the underlying math, but fully accept it. Yet, rather than trust the math, like an intrepid surfer you seek out a wave of good hands that will make you a winner.

But i get that this is what works for you (so far), and there's little that's going sway you into abandoning this play style.

Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".

Most 5-coin players accept that vp is largely a losing game over the medium haul until they pull ahead with a 800:1 payout RF. You continually put yourself at risk that when you hit, it'll be a 250:1 (or other shortcoin) payoff. Bottom line, this risk, inherent in your play, is what will make your game a losing one in the not so long run.

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[007]

Marc wrote:

What information does a streak give you?

When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak? ... Wait.
That's what johnnyzee asked ...

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak

There you go again, Marc. The "middle" implies a prediction that it
will continue. You have no reason to believe that 2 or more wins
didn't constitute the entire winning streak. It might have just
ended. As is consistent with your statements that there's no way to
predict, which is contradicted by your use of such words and phrases
as "middle" and "in," you can only recognize streaks in retrospect.
Only after a winning streak of, say, 7 hands is over can you say how
long it was. After, say, the 5th win, you have no way of knowing that
it will continue with 2 more wins. At that point, for all you know,
it will turn out to have been a streak of 5 wins. You persistently
confuse tenses. But you're not alone. I catch myself doing it, too.

[Rick_E_Percy]

If you observe Marc's play in retrospect only, you will find (using a negative game like 9/6 Jacks or Better as an example) that he lost 4 x (n - 1) coins fewer by playing his strategy on each streak of n losses. You will also find that he gained 80% fewer coins on the first win only, except once per 51,481 hands of 1-coin play (or once per 94,361 hands overall) when he had that 1-coin royal and won considerably less than he would have with 5-coin play.

With the switching strategy, his EV declines from the target 99.54% to 99.32%, presuming that he plays both 5-coin and 1-coin strategies perfectly, but his variance drops from 487.87 coins squared (25 x 19.51468 per single coin that is given in WinPoker) to 224.39 coins squared. The portion of the variances that is downside variance (attributed to hands that lose coins) drops from 13.51 coins squared to 6.44 coins squared.

His net expected losses are reduced from 0.0228 coins per hand with normal 5-coin play to 0.0192 coins per hand with his mixed play. Of course, the difference in loss and the fact that it is lower is due to the fact that he is betting on average 2.8177 coins per play rather than 5. And I presume with the continual switching bet sizes that he plays slower so his average losses per hour with the switching strategy are probably lower still.

Of course, there is nothing magic about switching when he does. He would experience these same numbers if he played the first 54.56% of his session at 1 coin with the remaining 45.44% at 5 coins except that he might play quicker and possibly make fewer hold mistakes because of the difference in the two playing strategies. Any similar trigger would produce similar results (like play 1 coin when the minute hand of the clock is from 0 to 32 and play 5 coins when it is from 33 to 59, if he played complete hours for each session).

So, it is more than luck that he would be experiencing lower loss levels in his losing sessions with this type of play. His losses in losing sessions are EXPECTED to be lower The above analysis is based on averages so sessions with longer losing streaks would likely have still lower loss results in comparison to 5-coin play. Certainly he would expect a lower expected net result in gain/loss over the lifetime of his play, but his ride should be more stable.

I would guess that there might be differences in probability of winning during a 4-hour session, but I have not analyzed that enough to comment meaningfully.

If he wants to continue with this betting strategy, it would be better if he could move up and down in denomination, always betting 5 coins so he doesn't miss out on the full-coin royals, but depending upon where he is, he may not be able to find the same pay schedule at the lower denomination.

It isn't always about EV. Some may be willing to trade a little expected value to get less variance; that's usually a bit more subjective of a decision. In this case, the implied trade-off is 0.22% less EV for a big drop in variance. People don't put all their money in the stock market even if it has greater expected value than T-bills, cds, savings, or checking accounts.

Certainly Marc could get an
even bigger drop in variance by playing even a higher percentage of hands at 1-coin,
or a lower dropoff in EV by using some other trigger, so it is not clear that he has consciously made an optimal informed EV-Variance tradeoff; but his decision may also not have been as horrific as has been intimated.

···

________________________________

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[007]

Rick wrote:

It isn't always about EV. Some may be willing to trade a little expected value to get less variance; that's usually a bit more subjective of a decision. In this case, the implied trade-off is 0.22% less EV for a big drop in variance. People don't put all their money in the stock market even if it has greater expected value than T-bills, cds, savings, or checking accounts.

Certainly Marc could get an
even bigger drop in variance by playing even a higher percentage of hands at 1-coin,
or a lower dropoff in EV by using some other trigger, so it is not clear that he has consciously made an optimal informed EV-Variance tradeoff; but his decision may also not have been as horrific as has been intimated.

Almost everyone sacrifices expected value in order to reduce
fluctuation. I assume insurance has negative expected value, but if
it sufficiently reduces the chance of a catastrophic loss, it can be
worth it. With a given bankroll, it might be better to play 1 coin
instead of 5. But that's a separate issue from trying to predict the
duration of streaks, as is the possibility that playing 0 coins is
better than either 1 or 5.

[marc.carfi]

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak(of unknown duration and could possibly end on the next bet)

                                                                                  maybe I should have added

I think I'm getting a "Tense-ion" Headache so I'm going to go take a whole bottle of 'Tylenold" and hope that I don't get a pain in my "Abdoment",sleep for 24hrs,get up fully vested,(By the way my Mother-in-Law really talks this way...Hope she doesn't see this post...She won't,VP to her means Joe Bidon) and trek down to the nearest Community college and take a course in whatever language I'm trying to speak.

P.S.Hey Tom,I think you cured me.I can now handle any losing streak that 6/5 Jacks or Better could possibly throw at me!

In Jest,

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 4:25 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

Marc wrote:

What information does a streak give you?

When you're in a streak,You only know how it's been going on for,not how long it will go on in the future

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak? ... Wait.
That's what johnnyzee asked ...

How do you know if you are in the middle of a streak?

If you've experienced 2 or more wins,then you know you're in the middle of a streak

There you go again, Marc. The "middle" implies a prediction that it
will continue. You have no reason to believe that 2 or more wins
didn't constitute the entire winning streak. It might have just
ended. As is consistent with your statements that there's no way to
predict, which is contradicted by your use of such words and phrases
as "middle" and "in," you can only recognize streaks in retrospect.
Only after a winning streak of, say, 7 hands is over can you say how
long it was. After, say, the 5th win, you have no way of knowing that
it will continue with 2 more wins. At that point, for all you know,
it will turn out to have been a streak of 5 wins. You persistently
confuse tenses. But you're not alone. I catch myself doing it, too.

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[Harry_Porter]

No question things have thinned out in AC in the last 4 mo. Failing all else, Borgata offers up 9/6 JB in $.25+, which with cb/bonus is at least a b/e offering.

There are other "positive" offerings at $.25+ (factoring cb/bonuses) in AC, but you'll have to keep your ear to the ground to learn of those.

- H.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:

>.Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".

Harry,You're right about that.I hated making trip after trip to AC and losing.

For me advantage play means VP with a positive EV which you won't find in AC.And if you want to include cash back and comps,It's getting harder since casinos here are constantly cutting back on what they're giving out.

Marc

-----Original Message-----
From: vp_wiz <harry.porter@...>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 6:47 am
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@ wrote:
>
> Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong .

Marc,

Certainly you're among the more schizophrenic players I've encountered ...

You demonstrate that you not only grasp the underlying math, but fully accept it. Yet, rather than trust the math, like an intrepid surfer you seek out a wave of good hands that will make you a winner.

But i get that this is what works for you (so far), and there's little that's going sway you into abandoning this play style.

Again, I'll speculate that the real driving force here is an inadequate psychological bankroll for 5-coin play ... And that until you confront that challenge you rob yourself of some of the real satisfacton of "advantage play".

Most 5-coin players accept that vp is largely a losing game over the medium haul until they pull ahead with a 800:1 payout RF. You continually put yourself at risk that when you hit, it'll be a 250:1 (or other shortcoin) payoff. Bottom line, this risk, inherent in your play, is what will make your game a losing one in the not so long run.

- H.

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[marc.carfi]

Rick,Thanks for your in-depth analysis of my play.Right now for me,the big drop in variance is worth the .22 drop in EV.But I'm going to be on the hunt for good Mult-D machines.

If I can't find M.D. 9/6 in AC,I wonder if M.D.8/5 Bonus would be a good alternative(which I have never played).Probably,my only other possible choice.

Marc

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Rick E. Percy <ricke.percy@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Nov 9, 2011 5:49 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins

If you observe Marc's play in retrospect only, you will find (using a negative game like 9/6 Jacks or Better as an example) that he lost 4 x (n - 1) coins fewer by playing his strategy on each streak of n losses. You will also find that he gained 80% fewer coins on the first win only, except once per 51,481 hands of 1-coin play (or once per 94,361 hands overall) when he had that 1-coin royal and won considerably less than he would have with 5-coin play.

With the switching strategy, his EV declines from the target 99.54% to 99.32%, presuming that he plays both 5-coin and 1-coin strategies perfectly, but his variance drops from 487.87 coins squared (25 x 19.51468 per single coin that is given in WinPoker) to 224.39 coins squared. The portion of the variances that is downside variance (attributed to hands that lose coins) drops from 13.51 coins squared to 6.44 coins squared.

His net expected losses are reduced from 0.0228 coins per hand with normal 5-coin play to 0.0192 coins per hand with his mixed play. Of course, the difference in loss and the fact that it is lower is due to the fact that he is betting on average 2.8177 coins per play rather than 5. And I presume with the continual switching bet sizes that he plays slower so his average losses per hour with the switching strategy are probably lower still.

Of course, there is nothing magic about switching when he does. He would experience these same numbers if he played the first 54.56% of his session at 1 coin with the remaining 45.44% at 5 coins except that he might play quicker and possibly make fewer hold mistakes because of the difference in the two playing strategies. Any similar trigger would produce similar results (like play 1 coin when the minute hand of the clock is from 0 to 32 and play 5 coins when it is from 33 to 59, if he played complete hours for each session).

So, it is more than luck that he would be experiencing lower loss levels in his losing sessions with this type of play. His losses in losing sessions are EXPECTED to be lower The above analysis is based on averages so sessions with longer losing streaks would likely have still lower loss results in comparison to 5-coin play. Certainly he would expect a lower expected net result in gain/loss over the lifetime of his play, but his ride should be more stable.

I would guess that there might be differences in probability of winning during a 4-hour session, but I have not analyzed that enough to comment meaningfully.

If he wants to continue with this betting strategy, it would be better if he could move up and down in denomination, always betting 5 coins so he doesn't miss out on the full-coin royals, but depending upon where he is, he may not be able to find the same pay schedule at the lower denomination.

It isn't always about EV. Some may be willing to trade a little expected value to get less variance; that's usually a bit more subjective of a decision. In this case, the implied trade-off is 0.22% less EV for a big drop in variance. People don't put all their money in the stock market even if it has greater expected value than T-bills, cds, savings, or checking accounts.

Certainly Marc could get an
even bigger drop in variance by playing even a higher percentage of hands at 1-coin,
or a lower dropoff in EV by using some other trigger, so it is not clear that he has consciously made an optimal informed EV-Variance tradeoff; but his decision may also not have been as horrific as has been intimated.

________________________________

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