vpFREE2 Forums

Your thoughts on Rob Singer's "Short-term strategy"

Hello,

Has anyone here seen/read Rob Singer's article (from a
few weeks ago) regarding that "short-term" strategy he
used/tried at one time?
His suggested strategy was:
--- Play at some 20 casinos for 2 days with:
100 credits for $1 machine
100 credits for $5 machine

Cash out as soon as he gets a $5 or more winner from a
machine then move on to another casino.
His result: won 18 out of 20 casinos (could have
easily been 20 vp machines in one casino to save on
gas, right?) and won approximately $300+ total.

Your thoughts on this kind of strategy...will be
greatly appreciated.

Thanks.
Gilbert

···

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This is an excellent strategy because after the first few winning hands the
machine gets to "know you" and then begins to take advantage of your
mistakes. You've got to make those missplays early, before the machine
knows you.

How often have you won a few hands shortly after starting, then lost fairly
consistently after that? This strategy prevents that occurrence, because no
machine has enough time to say, "oh yeah, it's him (her), I know him (her).
Hey you other machines, watch this!"

The other strength of the system is that instead of getting comps at only
one or two places, you get no comps from 20 places.

But seriously, I tried this kind of strategy once, and it didn't work very
well. After tipping all the bellmen and parking valets for moving luggage
from one hotel room to the next after every $5 win, the trip ended up
costing me $1400. Ironically, I ended up back at the same hotel I started
out in, and the valet said, "You're useing that Singer strategy, right?" I
said, "Yeah, have you used it also?" And he said, "Why the hell do you
think I'm parking cars?"

(No offense meant, Rob. Just a joke.)

Your thoughts on this kind of strategy...will be greatly

appreciated.

I ran my simulation program for 10,000 sessions and here, in order of
frequency, are the results and frequencies you can expect using
Singer`s $1-$5 Romp System:

Win $5 -- 41% of the time
Win $10 -- 19% of the time
Win $15 - $25 -- 15% of the time
Lose $600 -- 8% of the time
Win $30 - $50 -- 7% of the time
Win $105 - $500 -- 5% of the time
Win $55 - $100 -- 4% of the time
Win $505 - $1,000 -- 0.7% of the time
Win $1,005 - $4,000 -- 0.3% of the time
Win $19,000 - $20,000 -- 0.03% of the time

Mean win -- $46
Median win -- $10
Average (mean) session -- -$5 (but with huge volatility)

So, you can expect to win approximately 92% of the time -- nothing
wrong with that. But, 80% of your winning sessions will be $25 or
less while 100% of your losing sessions will be exactly $600.

I thought discussion of Rob and his strategy were banned here. (?)

Gilbert,

Personally, I don't fully understand the Singer strategy, and have
never done the math myself. However, I will say that my results have
greatly improved since I started taking the short-term wins, and
utilizing some of his money management ideas. (Not a way to gain
popularity in this group. :slight_smile:

Marsha

Rob Singer is banned from posting on vpFREE, and prolonged RS
discussions are prohibited. Non-disruptive RS discussions, while not
encouraged, aren't prohibited.

···

On 18 Dec 2002 at 3:40, mcuddington mcuddington@hotma wrote:

I thought discussion of Rob and his strategy were banned here. (?)

                        ******************************

From the vpFREE "Rob Singer Policy" -

"Rob Singer is banned from posting on vpFREE because he proved on the
vp_heaven internet group that he is unwilling (or unable) to refrain from personal
attacks on some of the established video poker experts, and because he engaged
in unbridled, continuous, voluminous promotions of his system that were
counter-productive and disruptive. In addition, prolonged Rob Singer related
discussions are PROHIBITED on vpFREE, in part because he isn't a member and
can't directly present his side of the story."

                        ******************************

Rob Singer Policy

http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Sing_Policy.html

<a href="http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Sing_Policy.html">
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Sing_Policy.html</a>

Marsha wrote:

However, I will say that my results have
greatly improved since I started taking the short-term wins, and
utilizing some of his money management ideas. (Not a way to gain
popularity in this group. :slight_smile:

Marsha

This is my first "Singer" post, and I'm posting it to this group with
a bit of trepidation. But, hey, here goes. Though I am not in
agreement
with his Martingale style of VP gambling, certainly against playing
short-pay machines when better plays are available, and certainly not
a fan of his disdain of the "math gurus", I'm not fond of the venom
coming the other way, either.

In addition, his idea of win goals and loss limits appeal to me.
Before you flame, I understand well the idea of the long-term (I have
read most of the 10K posts in this group) and I agree that getting
up, walking away from X machine, and starting again after an hour
does not change this idea. The long-term is the long-term. I also
understand that, with appropriate *disposable* (key word here)
bankroll, long-term VP is a nice way to get comps and perhaps break
even or come out ahead. That said, I am most certainly under-
bankrolled for long-term play, even at the nickel level - hence all
the posts looking for the best nickel plays. This does not allow me
to play the long daily sessions, even though I'd like to. Thus, I
won't approach long-term, or even a RF cycle, for quite some time. To
date, I've played about 8000 hands in a little under 6 months of
playing VP. Because of this, and because I'll not garner many comps
or cash back by playing this way, it seems appropriate to skew my
play to a more short-term strategy.

After a typical Vegas trip for me - 3 gambling days, maybe 3-4000
hands of VP - I may be up, down, or approximately even. But within
this timeframe, I'll certainly have swings. I like to take advantage
of the upswings when they happen. Thus, if I get to 50% above my
original buy-in, I'll quit with a win and feel good, too. If I lose
half my buy-in, I'll quit too, and I'll be glad not to have lost the
whole thing. In that time, I'll have consumed a few drinks, enjoyed
the casino atmosphere, and not felt like I need to bang away at the
machine quickly to achieve 800 hph, because, dangit, I need to get X
points for the day so I can save X dollars on a room. By using
coupons and internet resources, I save money anyway.

Is this the *correct* way to play? No, of course not. I could easily
lose half my buy-in for every session I play in a trip. Anything can
happen, I realize. The only "right" way to play is to be properly
bankrolled and to disengage oneself thoroughly from the swings. Only
then can you get to the point where approaching the machine ER is
realistic. In my case, though, this works for me. I haven't ever won
a great deal, but, more importantly, I've never had a disastrous
trip. That's what I'm trying to avoid. By using promotions, I've even
gotten some cash-back. That said, I play the best paytables available
and I feel I'm proficient in the games (JoB, DW) that I play. It only
makes sense to be that way.

Thanks, Marsha, for indirectly helping me get this off my chest.

Best of Luck to All,

David

Marsha,

Sorry, I didn't mean to start a topic on discussion of
Rob and his strategy. (no harm, no foul intended)
I should have just mentioned a similar scenario of
short-term strategy without mentioning Rob S. :frowning:

All I am after is that if a strategy like that had
been used by others before successfully or
unsuccessfully, that would be nice to know so that
many new players can make a better decision whether to
try or follow such strategy or not.

Thanks for your input!
And thanks for Alan's input (very interesting - I
should be trying these things out in the computer
first, next time).

Gilbert

--- "mcuddington <mcuddington@hotmail.com>"

···

<mcuddington@hotmail.com> wrote:

I thought discussion of Rob and his strategy were
banned here. (?)

Gilbert,

Personally, I don't fully understand the Singer
strategy, and have
never done the math myself. However, I will say
that my results have
greatly improved since I started taking the
short-term wins, and
utilizing some of his money management ideas. (Not
a way to gain
popularity in this group. :slight_smile:

Marsha

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These results were more than likely a complete fabrication, similar to all
of his other "real" results when he is gambling "as a professional" in our
fair city. What is he up to now, 149 wins and 2 losses? Yeah, right. Oh, and
for those of you interested in buying resort ocean front property in
Arizona, dial 1-800-GETREAL.
                                                                     Nudge

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Gilbert Escobar" <gilbert_616@yahoo.com>
To: "vpFREE" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2002 5:11 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Your thoughts on Rob Singer's "Short-term strategy"

Hello,
Your thoughts on this kind of strategy...will be
greatly appreciated.

Oh, and for those of you interested in buying resort ocean front property

in
Arizona, dial 1-800-GETREAL.<<

Don't call. It's a timeshare.

This is my first "Singer" post, and I'm posting it to this group

with

a bit of trepidation. But, hey, here goes. Though I am not in
agreement
with his Martingale style of VP gambling, certainly against playing
short-pay machines when better plays are available, and certainly

not

a fan of his disdain of the "math gurus", I'm not fond of the venom
coming the other way, either.

In addition, his idea of win goals and loss limits appeal to me.

Dave,

There's absolutely nothing wrong with what you are doing. As you
said, you are underfunded, and therefore have a realistic chance of
going broke on your trip. Given that, the last thing you want to do
is play hard for 2 hours on your first day, lose it all, and putter
around broke for 3 days in Vegas. So, however you decide to set up
win limits and loss limits to make your visit more enjoyable, so be
it. As long as you are not fooling yourself into believing you are
going to make more money this way, just pacing yourself so you don't
lose it all in one depressing shot.

Personally, even the best of us "Math Gurus" do some subconcious
win/loss limits. When I'm getting close to going, I say that I'll
try to get back to even before I quit, or I won't put in another $100
if I lose this one. The anti-Singer venom doesn't come from that.
It comes from thinking that this is the "big secret" to successful
play, instead of a method of maximizing your enjoyment. The other
big issue is that Singer isn't honest/accurate about how ofen you can
expect to lose thousands on the Martingale strategy.

Personally, even the best of us "Math Gurus" do some subconcious
  win/loss limits. When I'm getting close to going, I say that I'll
  try to get back to even before I quit, or I won't put in another $100
  if I lose this one. The anti-Singer venom doesn't come from that.
  It comes from thinking that this is the "big secret" to successful
  play, instead of a method of maximizing your enjoyment. The other
  big issue is that Singer isn't honest/accurate about how ofen you can
  expect to lose thousands on the Martingale strategy.

      Very well said and I agrre 100%.

      QZ

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