vpFREE2 Forums

Your Opinion, Please

#1

In a message dated 2/2/2009 3:35:52 P.M. Pacific Standard Time,
LGTVegas@gmail.com writes:

I understand that there are 25 tickets being drawn. But,
nowhere in this thread did the original poster (who received
the offer) say that the sweepstakes rules state "only one
prize may be won by each contestant."

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I've been in several of these things at the Venetian/Palazzo, and you can
only win once.

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My assumption was that each participant can win more than
one prize. And, all of my statements were based on that
assumption.

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If you could win more than once, and all the entries stay in the drum, then
my 2.7% figure is pretty darn close to giving you a 50% chance to be picked.
If you had half the entries in the drum, your chances of being drawn would be:

1 - (.5 ^ 25) = 33,554,431 / 33,554,432 = .99999997

Slightly more than 50-50, wouldn't you agree?

Brian

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#2

Brian,

I will admit that I do not understand mathematical equations
the way others in this Group do. Since I have no clue what
your mathematical statement actually means, I cannot agree
or disagree with it.

But, I think that you and I are in agreement.

Thank you for clarifying that each participant can only win
one prize. Given that information, all of my previous posts
are incorrect. Now, with this additional information, I would
agree that, if there are only 50 participants, there is a good
chance that each participant has a "1 in 2" chance of winning
some prize.

Curtis

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On 2/2/09, bjaygold@aol.com <bjaygold@aol.com> wrote:

If you could win more than once, and all the entries stay in the
drum, then
my 2.7% figure is pretty darn close to giving you a 50% chance to
be picked.
If you had half the entries in the drum, your chances of being drawn would
be:

1 - (.5 ^ 25) = 33,554,431 / 33,554,432 = .99999997

Slightly more than 50-50, wouldn't you agree?

Brian

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

<<Now, with this additional information, I would
agree that, if there are only 50 participants, there is a good
chance that each participant has a "1 in 2" chance of winning
some prize.>>

Except that isn't true in this case since the entries are based on amount played (everyone won't have the same #) and many high-roller players can "overwhelm" the drum by heavier play than the "average" player.

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________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#4

Except that isn't true in this case since the entries are based on

amount

played (everyone won't have the same #) and many high-roller

players can

"overwhelm" the drum by heavier play than the "average" player.

The way I looked at this offer considered high rollers that would
have a disproportionate amount of entries in the drum.

People like myself are glad to hear our name called at any point as
a "winner". But these high rollers DO NOT enjoy hearing their name
called early in the evening. Since a person can only win one prize
hearing your name early means you won something small, not major.

I also considered that I had an advantage in that my $2500 entry fee
was "refunded", in a sense", with $2500 in slot credits upon checkin.

If you conservatively assume a $600 loss at 9/5 Jacks with $2500
played, that still leaves me $1900 "ahead" of other entrants who
didn't get the slot credits.

But after playing the credits through once we are all on an even
keel. And at that point I would be then stuck for two days with
Venetian VP that is only a tainted shell of its once-good inventory.
Knowing me, I would be out the door and over the bridge to
the Wynn. And eventually, since my Venetian slot credits didn't earn
points or entries, I would be attending the awards dinner glumly with
but one "welcome" ticket in the drum.

"Slim chance" of any of the 25 prizes doesn't begin to describe my
odds at that point.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

#5

Jean,

This is actually kind of funny. Originally, I said it's *not* a
"1 in 2" chance (because of the same reason that you just
posted) - and, I got corrected.

Now, I am saying that it *is* a (good chance) for a "1 in 2"
chance and I'm still being corrected.

I can't win! :wink:

Curtis

PS At this point, I have no clue what your chances are.
And, I don't think I care, anymore. :slight_smile:

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On Mon, Feb 2, 2009 at 5:44 PM, Jean Scott <queenofcomps@cox.net> wrote:

<<Now, with this additional information, I would
agree that, if there are only 50 participants, there is a good
chance that each participant has a "1 in 2" chance of winning
some prize.>>

Except that isn't true in this case since the entries are based on amount
played (everyone won't have the same #) and many high-roller players can
"overwhelm" the drum by heavier play than the "average" player.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

<<At this point, I have no clue what your chances are.
And, I don't think I care, anymore. :-)>>

Like so many things that casinos do, especially promotions, there are usually many factors (some unknown that you may have to guess at) to consider so an exact math answer is not always possible.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/