Situation 1: NoLimit Hold 'Em, third day of the big event, blinds
are $5000-$10000. The shorter stacks are feeling the squeeze. Expert
player raises to $68,000 holding AA. Another player, perhaps
misreading the raise as a "steal" (too large for the size of the
pot), goes all-in for $239,000 with 1010. Expert calls, of course----
and a 10 comes on the river.
Situation 2: Same game, a few minutes later. Expert (same guy) goes
all in with 55, and is called by AK. A K flops, and our expert is
dead.
In the first situation, our expert outplayed his opponent and got
him to commit all his chips as a 4-1 underdog. In the second, he
made a last stand as an 11-9 favorite---and lost, busting out for
good.
In each case, the expert played well, had the best of it, and then
got shot down by the vagaries of chance. Something to think about--
no matter how well you play, there will come a moment--or several
moments--in a tournament when you MUST prevail as a 2-1 or 4-1
favorite. You can only survive so many of these confrontations.
This is the inverse of what we do as VP players, where we try to
risk extremely small portions of our bankroll on any one bet.
However, the theoretical results from our so-called "edge" can be
just as elusive. I'm sure the expert in Situation #1 would have been
happy to take the 80% of the pot that was theoretically his, rather
than risk being killed by the deck. Similarly, we would LOVE to play
$10,000 of FPDW and get back our theoretical return of $10,075, no
fuss, no muss. It doesn't usually work out that way, though. Having
an advantage--even a HUGE one--is no guarantee of winning.