XVP - Preakness

[Thomas_Valledolmo]

Hi Gang:
Hedy and I leave tomorrow for our Seven Stars trip to Harrah's New
Orleans. We won't be back until Saturday and since I won't have my laptop with me
I will not be posting Preakness selections this year.
Just a couple of thoughts, though, five days before the second jewel of
the Triple Crown.
1) During my many years working as a racing writer/handicapper I've never
seen the jockey of a Derby winner get off his mount to ride another horse
in the Preakness with the Derby winner in the field. This tells us two
things: Calvin Borel thinks the world of Rachel Alexandra (the sensational filly
he rode to a 20-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks and will ride in the
Preakness) or he doesn't think that much of Derby winner Mine That Bird.
2) Unlike the Derby, the Preakness is usually a formful race with the
favorites doing very well. The Derby winner, for instance, has won the
Preakness six times in the last 11 years ... '98, '99, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2008.
And, in 2006, Derby winner Barbaro broke down early in the race. So, don't
take Mine That Bird too lightly ... he might be the real deal!
3) On the other hand, deep closers -- such as Mine That Bird -- don't
usually win this race. It's more of a speed race with the winner usually on the
lead or close to the pace in the early stages. So, take a long look at
Pioneerof The Nile, Freisan Fire and Papa Clem. The winner is also usually a
horse who ran in the Derby. Newcomers, historically, have trouble winning
the race.
4) Other than the horses I've mentioned, the one longshot that intrigues
me is Big Drama. This colt, who won five straight races as a 2-year-old and
was DQd to second after winning the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream, is very
quick and has the talented John Velazquez in the saddle. He should be
prominent throughout the race.
Good luck with your wagers. Enjoy the race.
Regards,
CoachVee
   
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[Dunbar]

I agree with most of what you wrote. I don't know how much of a longshot Big Drama will be, but I think there will be value if he goes off at 8-1 or higher, which I think will happen.

The filly is by far the best, but I'd need 2-1 to bet her, and I don't think that's going to happen. I think Pioneer of the Nile and Friesan Fire will be overbet. Papa Clem would have value at 15-1, IMO.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:

Hi Gang:
Hedy and I leave tomorrow for our Seven Stars trip to Harrah's New
Orleans. We won't be back until Saturday and since I won't have my laptop with me
I will not be posting Preakness selections this year.
Just a couple of thoughts, though, five days before the second jewel of
the Triple Crown.
1) During my many years working as a racing writer/handicapper I've never
seen the jockey of a Derby winner get off his mount to ride another horse
in the Preakness with the Derby winner in the field. This tells us two
things: Calvin Borel thinks the world of Rachel Alexandra (the sensational filly
he rode to a 20-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks and will ride in the
Preakness) or he doesn't think that much of Derby winner Mine That Bird.
2) Unlike the Derby, the Preakness is usually a formful race with the
favorites doing very well. The Derby winner, for instance, has won the
Preakness six times in the last 11 years ... '98, '99, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2008.
And, in 2006, Derby winner Barbaro broke down early in the race. So, don't
take Mine That Bird too lightly ... he might be the real deal!
3) On the other hand, deep closers -- such as Mine That Bird -- don't
usually win this race. It's more of a speed race with the winner usually on the
lead or close to the pace in the early stages. So, take a long look at
Pioneerof The Nile, Freisan Fire and Papa Clem. The winner is also usually a
horse who ran in the Derby. Newcomers, historically, have trouble winning
the race.
4) Other than the horses I've mentioned, the one longshot that intrigues
me is Big Drama. This colt, who won five straight races as a 2-year-old and
was DQd to second after winning the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream, is very
quick and has the talented John Velazquez in the saddle. He should be
prominent throughout the race.
Good luck with your wagers. Enjoy the race.
Regards,
CoachVee
   
**************An Excellent Credit Score is 750. See Yours in Just 2 Easy
Steps!
(http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1222585010x1201462743/aol?redir=http://www.freecreditreport.com/pm/default.aspx?sc=668072&hmpgID=62&bcd=May
Excfooter51109NO62)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]