vpFREE2 Forums

XVP: Jewel

#1

I made a post but I think it got lost in cyberspace which can happen here when it's 23 degrees and snowing sideways. We're looking a snow accumulation through Saturday.

I'm back at home after a 9 week road trip. I've talked to three people so far that were at the bar the night the blondhead chick sang the Titanic song. Kelly, the bar manager, and a dynamite karoake singer herself, confirmed that the girl has never been seen before or since that night.

I asked Jack and John if they remembered the night.

"Who could forget her" Jack said
"Yeah, who could forget her." John said

I then told them all about what Jewel said on the Larry King Show. Kelly made the best comment:

"No wonder that #@%(#^% bitch made me look bad!!!"

#2

That is Funny stuff !! Thanks for making me belly laugh. Mickey !!

The Padparazzi was trying to snap picturea of me the other night when I was wearing sunglasses in the midst of the Flamingo madness night, while just going to play a match play (won double by playing red on the roulette) & shopping (bought a couple of those Jackets at $20 each) and eating dinner, heading back to the car..I recognized the photographer from all the junk on TV or People Mag or somewhere, and ducked behind Kenny because everyone says that I look like one of 3 people (only one is alive) and they are Marylin Monroe (got 2nd runner up in a contest), Anna Nicole OR Christina Applegate, It is never, Hello, Pleased to meet you - it is Always followed by "You sure look like..." ..lol..so, I get stared at all the time but, never haunted by the PP...LOL..I wonder which one they thought I was..You know these rags can get, I can see it now "Anna Nicole, STILL ALIVE"...... hehehe! I cannot say it was not fun & funny as heck !

I have Serious Question now, Kenny & I went to Fiesta (Henderson), I have been practicing at home on several sick days (I have 3 chronic issues) & it was my first night out playing DWVP. I loved it, had a blast & lasted on a machine for 5 hours & lost $47. Not bad? or bad for first time out ? was playing quarters & went down to dimes & rose above for a while & then, there is that unknown, when to walk away...hehe..Can anyone tell me in Vegas right now, where I should go at such a Naive level ?? to play longer & possibly win ?

Thanks so much, in advance for your input..

Meredith
"If God had wanted me to bend over, he would have
sprinkled the floor with diamonds!!!"

···

--- On Tue, 11/16/10, Mickey <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Mickey <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] XVP: Jewel
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2010, 10:26 PM

      I made a post but I think it got lost in cyberspace which can happen here when it's 23 degrees and snowing sideways. We're looking a snow accumulation through Saturday.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Well, I was using a little probability theory on the Jewel thing. What are the chances that I would see a nice looking chick do a karaoke song in a Montana bar? Then take a wild guess that she was Jewel? Then see Jewel on Larry King saying that she had been hitting the karaoke bars in Montana (there probably aren't even 20 karaoke bars in Montana, this isn't California, and she did say "hitting the karaoke bars). In other words she made the statement in the plural. So what are the chances it wasn't her? I put it somewhere between slim and none.

I personally think you should stick with the deuces for awhile. I don't think your overall game is ready for the big time yet. You still have a lot of homework to do....and then you might not get there. For example, here's a game I got to exploit for a few years, simply because I was in the right place at the right time and had the requisite knowledge to analyze the game:

I'm breaking this up into a few posts to insure that I don't write a long post and it gets lost in cyberspace. It's -1 degrees right now and snowing which can do funny things to wireless internet.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Meredith And Kenny <meredithandkenny@...> wrote:

That is Funny stuff !! Thanks for making me belly laugh. Mickey !!

The Padparazzi was trying to snap picturea of me the other night when I was wearing sunglasses in the midst of the Flamingo madness night, while just going to play a match play (won double by playing red on the roulette) & shopping (bought a couple of those Jackets at $20 each) and eating dinner, heading back to the car..I recognized the photographer from all the junk on TV or People Mag or somewhere, and ducked behind Kenny because everyone says that I look like one of 3 people (only one is alive) and they are Marylin Monroe (got 2nd runner up in a contest), Anna Nicole OR Christina Applegate, It is never, Hello, Pleased to meet you - it is Always followed by "You sure look like..." ..lol..so, I get stared at all the time but, never haunted by the PP...LOL..I wonder which one they thought I was..You know these rags can get, I can see it now "Anna Nicole, STILL ALIVE"...... hehehe! I cannot say it was not fun & funny as heck !

I have Serious Question now, Kenny & I went to Fiesta (Henderson), I have been practicing at home on several sick days (I have 3 chronic issues) & it was my first night out playing DWVP. I loved it, had a blast & lasted on a machine for 5 hours & lost $47. Not bad? or bad for first time out ? was playing quarters & went down to dimes & rose above for a while & then, there is that unknown, when to walk away...hehe..Can anyone tell me in Vegas right now, where I should go at such a Naive level ?? to play longer & possibly win ?

Thanks so much, in advance for your input..

Meredith
 "If God had wanted me to bend over, he would have
sprinkled the floor with diamonds!!!"

#4

Here's a ten coin nickel game I stumbled onto one time. It was a joker game with one joker in the deck. The payscale looked like this:

RF..........800
5K..........250
Joker Royal.200
SF...........50
4K...........25
FH............9
FL............5
ST............4
3K............1
2P............1

The cards were dealt in the bottom of the screen. The payscale was in the upper right hand corner. In the upper left hand corner were three progressivs meters:

Five Aces..................................$600 plus 1% prog.
Four Natural Aces..........................$150 plus 1% prog.
Full House with Three Aces.................$100 plus 1% prog.

#5

The game could not be fully analyzed on vp software. I could analyze the payscale on software but I couldn't separate out Aces Full hands from other full houses or Five aces hands from other 5K hands, nor would the software allow another hand....a pair with an ace kicker. I was gonna have to figure the game out myself.

So I analyzed the game on the software and took a look at the strategy chart to see if any of the hands needed to be tweaked. I had to figure out the ER of the Pair of Aces hand and put it up above the RF3. Then I had to figure the ER on the 1 Ace hand and move it up the strategy chart to just above the 4 Card Inside Straight. Then I analyzed the game again. Then I had to figure out the ER of the Pair with Ace Kicker hand....I couldn't put this hand in the software strategy chart but put it in my own strategy chart just above the ST 4.

#6

Then I had to figure out all the routes for making a Natural Aces Full hand and what the frequency was:

Dealt Aces Full....................9964
Three Aces into Aces Full..........13068
Two Aces into Aces Full............4668.2
1 Ace into Aces Full...............8380.7
Generic Pair into Aces Full........17363.2
Pair with Ace Kicker...............4529.5
Two Pair Aces Up...................3623.3
Draw Five..........................64743

I averaged the whole thing to coming up with an Aces Full hand every 925.7 games. I won't go into the math on the Five Aces hand but put the chances at 130074. So this is what the game looked like:

Base Game........................91.06%
Ace Full Add On..................20.63%
Five Aces Add On.................00.73%

There were some compensating factors. For instance, the percentage on the Aces Full hand was derived by dividing 191, instead of 200, by 925.7. The software already accounted for 9 bets out of the 200.

So the game totaled to 112.42% plus 3% meter movement which = 115.42%.
But that's not the end of the story. I had to compensate for the fact that when holding a Pair with Ace Kicker, while you get huge ER in making the Aces Full hand, you lose a little value in making 3K, generic 4K, etc. And the 5 Aces meter tops out at $800. So I made those adjustments and came up with a 114.0% game. I could be off a few tenths either way but who cares when you're holding such a big edge.

It was a $70 an hour play while running only $500 an hour (1000 hands per hour) in action.

So, in answer to your last question, Meredith, about where you can go and play longer hours and win lots of money. VP pros don't go out and find plays like this and then commit monetary suicide by telling the general public where the game is.

Have a nice day

Mickey

#7

P.S., the play is extinct or I wouldn't have written about it. I'm just showing the wannabe's what a real vp pro is capable of

#8

Mickey, I think your Jewel calculations are pretty close to accurate.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

Well, I was using a little probability theory on the Jewel thing. What are the chances that I would see a nice looking chick do a karaoke song in a Montana bar? Then take a wild guess that she was Jewel? Then see Jewel on Larry King saying that she had been hitting the karaoke bars in Montana (there probably aren't even 20 karaoke bars in Montana, this isn't California, and she did say "hitting the karaoke bars). In other words she made the statement in the plural. So what are the chances it wasn't her? I put it somewhere between slim and none.

#9

I met Jewel and her husband Ty Murray in Wendover some years ago. I kept staring at him because he looked so darned familiar then it dawned on me that he was a famous Rodeo star. But what's funny is I still had it wrong I was thinking he was Justin Mcbride at the time, LOL, wrong famous Rodeo star.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "xqqqq_me" <shhhhhhhhh@...> wrote:

Mickey, I think your Jewel calculations are pretty close to accurate.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
>> Well, I was using a little probability theory on the Jewel thing. What are the chances that I would see a nice looking chick do a karaoke song in a Montana bar? Then take a wild guess that she was Jewel? Then see Jewel on Larry King saying that she had been hitting the karaoke bars in Montana (there probably aren't even 20 karaoke bars in Montana, this isn't California, and she did say "hitting the karaoke bars). In other words she made the statement in the plural. So what are the chances it wasn't her? I put it somewhere between slim and none.
>
>