Hi Dunbar:
You make some very interesting and insightful comments about my Derby
picks.
It's obvious you know a lot about the thoroughbred racing game.
Just a couple of comments.
As far as Dunkirk's Florida Derby.
I thought his race was especially impressive in that the winner, Quality
Road, broke Gulfstream's track record for a mile and an eighth that day, yet
beat Dunkirk only by a little over a length. Also, the track that day was
lightning fast and Dunkirk came from seven or eight lengths off the pace to
take the lead at the top of the stretch, obviously racing against the bias.
Gomez also probably moved before he had to because he had to be sure
Dunkirk would finish first or second in order to earn enough money to make the
Derby field. His breathtaking move around the final turn reminded me a lot
of a Derby winner I picked a few years ago named Monarchos.
As far as Prado is concerned, you're absolutely right, Garrett Gomez is a
sensational rider (his Eclipse Awards prove that) but Edgar Prado, a Hall of
Famer, is a consummate BIG RACE rider. His Derby win in 2006 aboard
Barbaro and Belmont Stakes wins on Sarava and Birdstone (when he denied Smarty
Jones the Triple Crown) show that he's at his very best in racing's biggest
spotlights. Gomez, I believe, has never won a Triple Crown race.
As far as I Want Revenge goes, he's a very talented colt (with big speed
figures) but the field he beat in the Wood was one of the weakest I've seen
in years. Yes, he overcome a lot of trouble in the race but what I saw was
not him making a sensational late move to win, I saw a lot of inferior
horses tiring badly at the eighth pole. Again, just my observation.
A lot of people were getting all bubbly about Bellamy Road's Wood a couple
of years ago but I thought it was an overrated race on a souped-up track
against a bunch of nobodys and he was nowhere to be found in the Derby.
Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof The Nile are unproven on dirt, I agree, but
California horses like I Want Revenge, Papa Clem and Massone have come
East and run lights out so I think these two can adapt as well. Plus, buddies
of mine on the scene at Churchill, are saying that Pioneerof The Nile, in
particular, has taken to the track extremely well in the morning, just
gliding over it. Plus, I Want Revenge couldn't beat him in California.
So, let's hope we have an extremely competitive, cleanly run and SAFE race
this year. No Eight Belles tragedies marring things.
Good luck with your picks and your wagering, and thanks again for your
comments.
Regards,
CoachVee
In a message dated 5/1/2009 6:43:49 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:
I, too, have a big interest in horseracing, Coach. Here are some comments
on your picks.
1) DUNKIRK. (No. 15, 4-1) Talented colt is lightly raced but his
Florida
Derby was most impressive prep of those who made it this far. Pletcher
overdue to win one of these things. Prado a plus.
Dunkirk is my #2 pick, but how can you say his Florida Derby was the "most
impressive prep"?! I Want Revenge's Wood was far more impressive, IMO. I
Want Revenge overcame more in his Wood race than Dunkirk or any other Derby
horse has yet faced. The way he was left at the starting gate, was boxed,
bumped and still won was like some kind of preposterous Hollywood movie..
see: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/videos/3630 (it might be enough to
make someone a racing fan!)
Also, Prado is not a plus on Dunkirk when the previous rider was Gomez.
2) CHOCOLATE CANDY. (No. 11, 20-1). Seven wide on final turn in SA
Derby
but was gaining on Pioneerof The Nile at wire. Solid, consistent, bred
for
off track and can only improve with Smith in saddle.
Nice horse, but he's only run on the Cal synthetic surfaces. How he'll do
on real dirt is a big unknown. Agree about Smith.
3) DESERT PARTY. (No. 19, 15-1) Just missed catching stablemate Regal
Ransom on speed-favoring track in Dubai. Working extremely well at
Churchill.
Godolphin's best hope in long time. Wide post only knock.
Agree.
4) PIONEEROF THE NILE. (No. 16, 4-1). Best of ultra-talented California
bunch this year. Flawless record at 3 and trained by Bullet Bob, who
knows
how to get it done in first jewel. Dangerous.
Another synthetic-only horse, but I think he is this year's Colonel John.
He doesn't match up to I Want Revenge and Dunkirk.
LONGSHOT: General Quarters. (No. 12, 20-1)
My longshots would be Hold Me Back or one of the Godolphin horses. But my
clear favorite is I Want Revenge. He's faster than any horse in the race
and he's shown he's tough. I think he'd be a good bet at 7-2, but we may
not see odds that high on him.
I won't get into a long discussion/argument here, because there are
probably not another 5 people on the site who care about horses. But I'll plug a
few other sites I think are good for anyone who IS interested.
1. The best all-around site for racing, IMO, is DerbyTrail.com. Some very
strong cappers post there, including Andy Serling.
2. I post occasional picks on the Racing Forum at Stanford Wong's
Sharpsportsbetting. com.
3. Roughingthepunter. com is a fairly new site started by "Jon in
Oakland", who had hosted weekly radio-type sports discussions/ interviews for a few
years. I'll be going over the Derby field along with a sports writer from
the NY Post tonight and the audio will be available at roughingthepunter.
com later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Good luck to everyone on Saturday! Enjoy the spectacle!
Regards,
CoachVee
Ditto.
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