vpFREE2 Forums

Wynn'sTrip Report from a high betting VP player

Though my five night stay at Wynn's was shortened to three because of
death in the family, I thought I would give an overview of my first
experience playing here. I go to Vegas about four times a year and
have pretty much been comped for everything at the Palms. Since we
don't quite fit the Palms demographics and they are not quite up to
our overall expectations we tried Wynn's beginning on 10/15/06.
While I thought I'd give the two 100 play and one fifty play machine
most of my time, the difficulty of getting an available machine and
the continuous over $1,200. stops playing 9/6 JOB at the $1.00 level
made me switch over to the single play $25 ($125) for five coin in
JOB machines in the high limit room.
Even with this game, there is a fair level of volatility. I was up
about $8k playing a machine until hitting 4 oak then going to the
next machine.

Then one night I played about an hour without hitting 4 oak on a
specific machine. Even though it makes no real difference playing
any machine with the same pay table, early in the morning I came back
to this same machine (I was the only person playing the machine as it
still had the $ amount of my previous night's cashout listed). I then
proceeded to play an hour with one 4 oak and two more hours with 0 4
oak. Later, figuring backward from the Wynn point meter and my
notes, I had one 4 oak in about 2,750 hands. I was so frustrated
after talking to the room supervisor, he contacted the Gaming
Commission for me and I asked them to check the randomness of the
RNG in this particular machine. The room supervisor was very helpful
and professional and the Gaming Commission folks took down the
details in a good manner. Later as I calmed down, the retired
Engineer in me concluded that what had happened to me was
mathematically possible albeit at the extreme end of the distribution
curve.
Because of the family death, the remainder of the day was spent
changing airline flights, going to dinner and then crashing. I had
lost about 30K in this four hours of play so I was now down $22k.
After breakfast in the morning, checking with my new host, checking
out etc. I had about 45 minutes to kill so I played Super Aces on one
of the two multistrike machines for $1.00 ($20 per hand). Now that's
a change in volatility from JOB. In 15 minutes I hit 4 Aces twice
one on the bottom line and one on the second line. This gave me $6K
so I ended the trip down about $16.5k which is about 1.4% of my coin
in. So without a single line Royal flush, I still was down less than
the 2% plus one would expect over the long term. I have read every
VP book over the past five years and actively use Win Poker and the
Dancer/Daily VP guides. I know what advantage play is, but in the
short run Mr. Singer is absolutely correct. Anything can happen I
thought Harry Porter's comments on the Rob Singer controversy as he
reported on freeVPfree on April 28 was right on. Mr. Porter should
be listened to, and there is sound reason for the concept the Singer
espouses.

I strongly recommend Wynn for high limit playing Video Poker
Players. My wife, most of the time was able to play her 25c Double
Bonus Poker on one of the four full pay machines and she saw 2 Royals
hit while she played.

I also want to thank those in this forum who recommended Carol
Bosshart to me as a host at Wynn. She and the Wynn's staff took
excellent care of me despite my mercurial personality and I would
strongly recommend her and the hotel to others. Denny

denflo60 writes
In 15 minutes I hit 4 Aces twice
one on the bottom line and one on the second line. This gave me $6K
Gaming commission should have been called back, this machine appears to be gaffed in denflos favor.
Jack

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

dennis.florence wrote:

Later, figuring backward from the Wynn point meter and my
notes, I had one 4 oak in about 2,750 hands ... the retired
Engineer in me concluded that what had happened to me was
mathematically possible albeit at the extreme end of the distribution
curve.

Dennis, inteesting report!

I want to comment on the above, not so much to refine your statement
as to make clear the risk of finding one in such straights. I'm
rather keen on vp downside expectations (probably why lately I've
become particularly familiar with them in my play) and I think if
someone is going to make sound vp decisions, a firm sense of the risk
is valuable.

I wouldn't go so far to suggest the probability of a single quad in
2750 hands is "extreme". In fact, it's just a smidgen short of 1% for JB.

That's something you're not going to see a lot of, but over the course
of 300 hours of play it's more likely you'll suffer it than not. In
any case, if you suffer this misfortune, it's probably a good bet on a
busy weekend that there's someone else to cry in your beer with if you
seek them out :wink: (well, you might want to buy them their own ...)

btw, it's a 1.5 shot in 1000 that you won't hit any quads in this
time. I think there are one or two players around here who'd swear
it's a LOT more probable than that :frowning:

I have read every VP book over the past five years and actively use
Win Poker and the Dancer/Daily VP guides. I know what advantage play
is, but in the short run Mr. Singer is absolutely correct. Anything
can happen I thought Harry Porter's comments on the Rob Singer
controversy as he reported on freeVPfree on April 28 was right on.
Mr. Porter should be listened to, and there is sound reason for the
concept the Singer espouses.

I want to be rather precise, in brief, on the foundation of my
comments re: Singer and why I don't dismiss him.

Personally, I firmly adhere to the "precepts" of advantage play.

However, there's little question in my mind that there are those who
don't share an interest in the "grind it out" nature that's at the
heart of advantage play, nor find it satisfying.

I merely acknowledge that the is a subset of players who will find
that Singer's strategies more closely address their play goals. And,
for those players, I can see where the strategy could be a sound play
choice.

Mind you, it's a given that a hefty bankroll is involved (clearly
acknowledged by Singer) and there is signficiant risk of ruin (higher
than generally expressed by him).

Finally, addressing a concern I've seen expressed -- I'm not terribly
concerned about the prospect of players being inappropriately drawn to
his strategies. I have a firm conviction that were Singer not around,
they'd find some other diversion from an advantage strategy.

- Harry

(I'll be happy to discuss the above on freeVPfree)

... and, Dennis, can I get you to run that "should be listened to" by
Bev at some point??