You are doing (interesting) math that does not apply to how most
knowledgeable people will play at Wynn.
Let's assume you will play 30,000 points each month, no matter what, to get
the max FreeCredits, and then not play again that month. Once each FC amount
is played through, you will begin earning points. It doesn't matter if you
cash out the balance after your FCs are played through, and then put in "your
own" money, or if you just continue to play on whatever is remaining of your
FC. The balance just becomes part of your bankroll. There is no "extra action"
generated by the FCs, at least not for smart players, as playing beyond
30,000 points (on a negative game, including CB) generates no additional FC. And
this also applies to people who play a lesser amount to receive less FC--most
still stop playing just after hitting the correct number of points to
achieve the FC "tier" that they desire.
So, because you do not earn points during your FC play, you must play
(assuming you receive $1000 X 4 each month in FCs) an "additional" $4000 coin-in to
get your 30,000 points, compared to if you DID get points during your FC
play. So, as I said, you "lose" only $4000/9 = 444 points, which is $8.88 for
the month. Not a big deal for players who are giving $270K coin-in!
For players who play haphazardly, with no logical plan, certainly if they do
well during their FC play they might play much longer, and therefore generate
more points and comps. This should not apply to smart local players, but
will for "other" locals.
Brian
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In a message dated 1/8/2007 11:26:42 AM Pacific Standard Time,
vpfree_digests@vpfree2.com writes:
I think you are wrong here. You are neglecting the possibiity of "winning"
hands when
playing FC. So with (for example) $1000 in FC at the Wynn, you
would have rx'ed much more than $2.22 from the 111 "lost" points -- if you
played it out.
The reason for this is due to the "action" the $1000 FC generted and how
many points
exactly depends on the game you play.
Figuring out the "average" amount of points (ignoring gamblers ruin issues)
is pretty
straight forward. Suppose, you are going to play one of the $1 99.99%
machines. $1000
is then a backroll of 200 bets (someone check my math). You quit when you
have less than
1 bet left. If this is the case, how many "bets" on average do you make
(ignoring ruin)?
Easy, solve for b (integer, rounded up) in
200 x (.9999) ^ b = 1
Or,
b = log(1/200) / log(.9999)
So, b = 5299. That means, on average, you had $5*5299 = $26,495 in "FC
Coin-in" or
action from your orginal $1000 FC. At 1 pt / $9, this is 2943.9 points.
Now, if you did
actually earn points on the FC, you could then turn those points intro more
Freecredit
(about $60 I think?), which would in turn generate more points, and then
more free credit,
and so on, and so on. I leave it up to the interested reader to figure what
that would
amount to (on average, negelecting ruin)
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