vpFREE2 Forums

Wynn Casino: EV of Keno Games Offered

#1

For those interested in taking a VP break, the EV for most of the
Keno games at the Wynn Resort are listed below. All calculations are
based on a $1 bet.

1 Spot: 75%
2 Spot: 72.15%
3 Spot: 73.54%
4 Spot: 72.52%
5 Spot: 71.67%
6 Spot: 70.99%
7 Spot: 71.30%
8 Spot: 70.73%
9 Spot: 71.13%
10 Spot: 71.27%

These are all pretty lame, to put it mildly. However ............

The 6 Spot has a progressive. The calculation above was based on a
reset level of $1500. When (if) it reaches $4000, the EV is
103.23%. The progressive MAY apply only to $2 bets. If so, the
progressive would be $8000 at 103.23%. The odds of a 6 Spot are 1 in
7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

There is a game named "Ferrari 10 Spot", with its own unique pay
schedule. Get 10 out of 10 and you win a Ferrari ... value unknown.
I estimated a value of $180,000. At that value, the EV is 73.91%.

The are three "$3 Catch All" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 76.58%
5 Spot: 75.24%
6 Spot: 73.09%

There are three "$5 Special" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 73.38%
5 Spot: 71.95%
6 Spot: 71.79%

Conclusion? The 6 Spot $2 bet with a high progressive has a high EV
when it gets above $3000 (or $6000). The $3 Catch All 4 Spot has
second place.

Why did I do this? Good question. I was hoping I'd find an error in
their pay schedules, plus I was curious how it compares to other
casinos.

Thanks nightoftheiquana for the Keno calculator! It works for most
Keno games based on a $1 bet. It did not seem to work for fractional
dollar amounts. It also assumes 20 numbers are drawn, so it can't be
used for the "Extra Million" game.

#2

LVA has printed some surveys of live keno games done by UNLV stats class and Mike Shackleford* has done surveys also. Think El Cortez has some of the best live Keno -. > 80%. Keno Machines are better - can pay > 90%.
*http://wizardofodds.com/keno
Skip

brumar_lv wrote:

···

For those interested in taking a VP break, the EV for most of the Keno games at the Wynn Resort are listed below. All calculations are based on a $1 bet.

1 Spot: 75%
2 Spot: 72.15%
3 Spot: 73.54%
4 Spot: 72.52%
5 Spot: 71.67%
6 Spot: 70.99%
7 Spot: 71.30%
8 Spot: 70.73%
9 Spot: 71.13%
10 Spot: 71.27%

These are all pretty lame, to put it mildly. However ............

The 6 Spot has a progressive. The calculation above was based on a reset level of $1500. When (if) it reaches $4000, the EV is 103.23%. The progressive MAY apply only to $2 bets. If so, the progressive would be $8000 at 103.23%. The odds of a 6 Spot are 1 in 7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

There is a game named "Ferrari 10 Spot", with its own unique pay schedule. Get 10 out of 10 and you win a Ferrari ... value unknown. I estimated a value of $180,000. At that value, the EV is 73.91%.

The are three "$3 Catch All" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 76.58%
5 Spot: 75.24%
6 Spot: 73.09%

There are three "$5 Special" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 73.38%
5 Spot: 71.95%
6 Spot: 71.79%

Conclusion? The 6 Spot $2 bet with a high progressive has a high EV when it gets above $3000 (or $6000). The $3 Catch All 4 Spot has second place.

Why did I do this? Good question. I was hoping I'd find an error in their pay schedules, plus I was curious how it compares to other casinos.

Thanks nightoftheiquana for the Keno calculator! It works for most Keno games based on a $1 bet. It did not seem to work for fractional dollar amounts. It also assumes 20 numbers are drawn, so it can't be used for the "Extra Million" game.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#3

Good work!

I would take issue with only one statement:
"Conclusion? The 6 Spot $2 bet with a high progressive has a high
EV when it gets above $3000 (or $6000)."

The EV when the progressive reaches $3000 is still just 90.3%. That
can be considered "high EV" only in the distorted world of Keno!

Using your figures, I come up with a breakeven progressive of $3729
($7458 for $2). Every $77.55 of $1 jackpot adds another 1% to the
EV.

--Dunbar

For those interested in taking a VP break, the EV for most of the
Keno games at the Wynn Resort are listed below. All calculations

are

based on a $1 bet.

1 Spot: 75%
2 Spot: 72.15%
3 Spot: 73.54%
4 Spot: 72.52%
5 Spot: 71.67%
6 Spot: 70.99%
7 Spot: 71.30%
8 Spot: 70.73%
9 Spot: 71.13%
10 Spot: 71.27%

These are all pretty lame, to put it mildly. However ............

The 6 Spot has a progressive. The calculation above was based on

a

reset level of $1500. When (if) it reaches $4000, the EV is
103.23%. The progressive MAY apply only to $2 bets. If so, the
progressive would be $8000 at 103.23%. The odds of a 6 Spot are 1

in

7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

There is a game named "Ferrari 10 Spot", with its own unique pay
schedule. Get 10 out of 10 and you win a Ferrari ... value

unknown.

I estimated a value of $180,000. At that value, the EV is 73.91%.

The are three "$3 Catch All" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 76.58%
5 Spot: 75.24%
6 Spot: 73.09%

There are three "$5 Special" games, as follows:
4 Spot: 73.38%
5 Spot: 71.95%
6 Spot: 71.79%

Conclusion? The 6 Spot $2 bet with a high progressive has a high

EV

when it gets above $3000 (or $6000). The $3 Catch All 4 Spot has
second place.

Why did I do this? Good question. I was hoping I'd find an error

in

their pay schedules, plus I was curious how it compares to other
casinos.

Thanks nightoftheiquana for the Keno calculator! It works for

most

Keno games based on a $1 bet. It did not seem to work for

fractional

dollar amounts. It also assumes 20 numbers are drawn, so it can't

be

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

used for the "Extra Million" game.

#4

Skip wrote: The odds of a 6 Spot are 1 in

7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

That's about twice as frequent as quad aces with a kicker. In 9/6 DDB,
the frequency is 1 in 16,236. In 9/7 TDB it is 1 in 14,214.

A further difference is that in video poker you're playing 600+ games
per hour whereas usually in Keno you're playing at a MUCH slower rate.

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

FWIW, the Reno Peppermill has one game every 7 minutes on each of
their Keno games.

Playing 25c per game, assuming 70% return, that's negative by 65c per
hour (I don't remember the exact pay schedule for their $5.25 21-game
special). Ignoring comps, that's about the same as nickel JoB, and
Keno can be played while severely intoxicated.

JBQ

···

On 12/8/05, Bob Dancer <bob.dancer@compdance.com> wrote:

A further difference is that in video poker you're playing 600+ games
per hour whereas usually in Keno you're playing at a MUCH slower rate.

#6

Skip wrote: The odds of a 6 Spot are 1 in
>7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

That's about twice as frequent as quad aces with a kicker. In 9/6

DDB,

the frequency is 1 in 16,236. In 9/7 TDB it is 1 in 14,214.

A further difference is that in video poker you're playing 600+

games

per hour whereas usually in Keno you're playing at a MUCH slower

rate.

Don't blame Skip for the error, it was mine. I should know better
than to rely on memory. I should have said a quad 2,3,4/w A-4
kicker, which has a frequency of 6983 for 10/6 DDB.

Also, someone else noted I understated the level for the progressive
game to reach 100%. Thanks for the correction.

Finally, you are right about the 600+ game per hour difference, but
the REALLY serious Keno player can overcome this difference by
submitting multiple Way tickets. As far as I know, there is no upper
limit on the number of way tickets purchased, other than time
constraints. Even time constraints can be overcome by submitting
multiple game tickets (such as 60 tickets each good for 10
successive games).

Note also, playing $1 DDB a quad 2,3,4w/A-4 wins only $800 for a $5
bet, whereas a $2 Keno bet can win $8000 (if the progressive is that
high), with roughly the same frequency! I'm fairly sure, however,
the Keno variance is higher.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@c...> wrote:

#7

Nope. Skip didn't write that.
Skip

Bob Dancer wrote:

···

Skip wrote: The odds of a 6 Spot are 1 in

7753 (about the same as quad aces w/kicker).

--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com