I don't think we disagree as much as you think.
I understand that strategy is important. Strategy determines where the center of your bell-shaped curve is. Luck determines where YOU are on the bell-shaped curve.
If the curve is very steep, then you won't vary much from the center of it whether you're lucky or not. If the curve is very shallow, you can move the center (i.e., improve your strategy, or ignore it) a lot, and still have a lot of range as to where you land on it.
Whether you think luck or strategy is more important, depends on whether you consider the variance of VP to be great or small in the great scheme of things.
I agree that you can't ignore the strategy for the small-difference but very common hands at the "bottom" of the strategy sheet and that those decisions will impact your EV more than many realize.
In fact, I've often said, for those who think that strategy is NOT important, (1) Go play blackjack, and always hit everything, no matter what your total is, until you bust (always standing or always doubling down would probably work equally well), or (2) Go play VP, and always draw five cards.
So when I say luck is more important than strategy, I'm saying that because we can't control the luck. Certainly we MUST do all we can to control the skill aspect of the game.
--BG
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4b. Re: worst vpplayer ever
Posted by: "nudge51" nudge51@cox.net nudge511
Date: Sun Jul 19, 2009 9:55 am ((PDT))From: "Barry Glazer"
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: worst vpplayer ever> "..but if you don't want to do that, you do whatever you want, it's more
important to get lucky than to make any particular play".
>
> And you know, that's true. We ALL know that it's more important to get
lucky than it is to play correctly.I'm sorry, Barry, but this is your second post in a row that I have to
respectively disagree with. If your above statement were to be true, then I
am sure that we all could agree that there would be absolutely no need to
EVER take one single look at ANY strategy sheet for ANY gambling venture.
Do you agree with that? I didn't think so. Now, if you were going to play
one, and only one, session of video poker in your lifetime, I would be
onboard with your thinking in a flash. I don't think that most members here
will only play the one session and then get on the wagon. IMO, for regular
players who want to do it the pro way, and that's proficient, not
professional, one of the most important considerations is retention of
credits between royals. Take an average video poker strategy sheet that may
consist of, let's say 80 lines. This is a descending order listing of types
of hands, what beats what, and in what order do you hold them. If you take a
close look at the bottom third of the hand listings, you will find quite a
large percentage of holds on frequently occurring final hands that don't pay
out very much. A lot of these hands, and how one plays them, may very well
determine if your retention of credits is good or not so good. Your average
player wants to concentrate his knowledge in the top third of the strategy
chart, cuz that's where all the good hands are, right? In almost any VP
game, if we are dealt three kings a 4 and an 8, how much study does it take
us to remember what to do here? If we change the 4 or 8 to something else,
are we creating some kind of penalty situation? Other than knowing that a
hand with three kings in it will be better than one with only two of them in
it, not much else can be learned here. Most of the previously mentioned
proficient players will now concentrate their study effort to the bottom
third portion of the strategy, and it is my theory that the lucky ones wont.
Nudge