vpFREE2 Forums

winpoker results

#1

Sometimes, for kicks, I will play a game on Winpoker that is no longer available. Recently, I was playing 17/10 loose deuces and decided to play it as a 10 play, $5 game.

My results have been unusually good, even for a highly positive game.

Dealt hands 4644
Total hands 46440
Return 117.10%

Royal Flush 4
Deuces 16

Now, that is about 3 more royal flushes than expected ( 12,000 coins) and about 6.1 more deuces than expected ( 15,250 coins). But I am ahead 39,705 coins. That means on the non RF/non deuce hands, I am ahead about 12,455 coins, when the expected return for the non RF/non deuce hands is 89.20% or a loss of 25,077 coins. That just seems like a huge difference from expected value on the more common hands. And due to multitasking while playing ( and not having played loose deuces in a long time) I also lost 41.66 coins due to errors ( 0.17% error rate which is about a magnitude of order too high)

Aside from this being a fantasy situation, has anyone else seen very unusual results on Winpoker? I have played about 1 royal cycle but for the lesser paying hands, I have played many cycles, over 70 on the wild royal flush and those are all well above expected value. Also, there hasn't been any dealt quads, maybe 1 dealt WRF and 1 or 2 dealt SFs.

A couple of conclusions:

1) 10 play has much different variance than single line

2) Everyone on this board should buy the new DRA that does up to 10 play ROR calcs.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

John,

If you happen to have tracked details of your RF/deuces hits, then you can explain for yourself this "aberational" return:

The key question is, "How concentrated were the hits?" e.g. were the royals hit from 4 separate deals, or (as I'm willing to bet) from only 2 or 3 deals. Ditto on the quad deuces.

As you surmise in your concluding statement, variance for multiline play is different than single line play; multiline adds an additional factor of "covariance".

In short, covariance measures the degree to which you anticipate getting multiple hits from a single deal, and is why a larger bankroll is required to survive multiline play of a given denomination vs single line play at the same denom (a propensity for mulitple hits and a propensity for longer droughts go hand in hand). If there were no covariance, both would require the same bankroll, despite the larger wager per play in multiline.

If you want to satisfiy yourself that multilline play ultimately approaches expected value, put the game into autoplay and just let it run a million iterations :wink:

(I have a friend who gets a kick out of doing so with winpoker on an ipad w/ 100-play)

···

-----------

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :

Sometimes, for kicks, I will play a game on Winpoker that is no longer available. Recently, I was playing 17/10 loose deuces and decided to play it as a 10 play, $5 game.

My results have been unusually good, even for a highly positive game.

Dealt hands 4644
Total hands 46440
Return 117.10%

Royal Flush 4
Deuces 16

Now, that is about 3 more royal flushes than expected ( 12,000 coins) and about 6.1 more deuces than expected ( 15,250 coins). But I am ahead 39,705 coins. That means on the non RF/non deuce hands, I am ahead about 12,455 coins, when the expected return for the non RF/non deuce hands is 89.20% or a loss of 25,077 coins. That just seems like a huge difference from expected value on the more common hands. And due to multitasking while playing ( and not having played loose deuces in a long time) I also lost 41.66 coins due to errors ( 0.17% error rate which is about a magnitude of order too high)

Aside from this being a fantasy situation, has anyone else seen very unusual results on Winpoker? I have played about 1 royal cycle but for the lesser paying hands, I have played many cycles, over 70 on the wild royal flush and those are all well above expected value. Also, there hasn't been any dealt quads, maybe 1 dealt WRF and 1 or 2 dealt SFs.

A couple of conclusions:

1) 10 play has much different variance than single line

2) Everyone on this board should buy the new DRA that does up to 10 play ROR calcs.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

vp-wiz said:

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.

In addition to requiring Excel, does Dunbar's Risk Analyzer still need a "Windows-based" version of Excel? The Mac "flavor " of Excel still is not sufficient?

..... bl

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

I'll have to look for Dunbar to pick up on this thread (re Mac vs PC).

Hard to say. I believe there are many more options for cross-platform MS Visual Basic use (which I believe Dunbar likely programs DRA with). But I'm pretty ignorant in this are.

- H.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bornloser1537@...> wrote :

vp-wiz said:

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.

In addition to requiring Excel, does Dunbar's Risk Analyzer still need a "Windows-based" version of Excel? The Mac "flavor " of Excel still is not sufficient?

..... bl

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Harry,

The 4 royals have come on 4 different dealt hands. I believe 2 were from RF3 and 2 were from RF4 but I didn't track it. I have had 2 sets of deuces from a dealt hand either once or twice. No dealt deuces.

Up to 117.44% after 4944 dealt hands ( 49440 total hands). This includes breaking up a dealt WRF with 3 deuces and not filling in any of them.

The 'Best Return' is 26448 ( from the Error Effect On Total Return section of Winpoker). That means my average dealt hand is worth 1.06999 which means I am getting dealt monster starting hands and then filling them in way more than expected.

This has given me a couple of ideas for features in the next DRA release. And Harry, to answer your question about DRA multiline release, I was doing some beta testing. The finished product isn't out yet.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

reply interspersed as >> text <<

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :

Harry,

The 4 royals have come on 4 different dealt hands. I believe 2 were from RF3 and 2 were from RF4 but I didn't track it. I have had 2 sets of deuces from a dealt hand either once or twice. No dealt deuces.

Up to 117.44% after 4944 dealt hands ( 49440 total hands).

Fascinating. Still no reason to expect a non-random result on a relatively short trial, of course. You can only hope for a similar session in the casino :wink: <<

This includes breaking up a dealt WRF with 3 deuces and not filling in any of them.

Ouch?? (I'm not referring to the sour luck ... I've little doubt that you know it's a close call to breaking dealt 5k in FPDW, and a no-go in NSUD. So I assume that this was a momentary lapse into "ducks lust" :wink:

The ER hit from session errors likely ran to 0.2% or higher ... that should have caught your eye with some concern (but I'm bordering on self-righteousness here ...) <<

The 'Best Return' is 26448 ( from the Error Effect On Total Return section of Winpoker). That means my average dealt hand is worth 1.06999 which means I am getting dealt monster starting hands and then filling them in way more than expected.

This has given me a couple of ideas for features in the next DRA release. And Harry, to answer your question about DRA multiline release, I was doing some beta testing. The finished product isn't out yet.

Got ya. Just making sure I hadn't been "asleep at the wheel" on the release (which I understand will likely be timed sometime early this summer)

The added multiline analytics to DRA (along with the offer to tailor up to 5 game paytables for registered users (which can include games such as STP or (I believe) UX, makes this inexpensive tool and outstanding addition the the arsenal of any serious player who desires to get their hands firmly around a game's bankroll risk.

(Again, I'll note that this tool is used in conjunction with an existing MS Excel install) <<

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

This includes breaking up a dealt WRF with 3 deuces and not filling in any of them.

Hope that's a typo. I played a fair amount of 100 play last year... with exactly the opposite problem. A typically meandering low variance game turned into a horror show almost every session. Mostly due to a dearth of good dealt hands. Only one dealt quad all year and I was way under royaled. It was a good lesson on the real possibilities of covariance. Thankfully while I was missing on nickels I was hitting on dollars.

C

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Hope that's a typo.

Never mind. I assumed you were playing NSUD.

C

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

First, Harry and JohnZ, thanks for the nice comments about Dunbar's Risk Analyzer 2.0. (Harry and John were kind enough to be beta-testers.)

To answer bornloser's question: yes, you need a Windows based Excel. It won't work on a Mac.

It has not been released yet, because I'm still cleaning up a few appearance-related things. But it will be released sometime this summer for sure, or at least as "for sure" as any software prediction can be.

DRA-VP 2.0 will do the things Harry and JohnZ mentioned except that it will not be able to analyze UX games. I'll hold off on describing all the new features until it's ready to roll.

Thanks for the interest!

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

reply interspersed as >> text <<

—In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpF…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote :

Harry,

The 4 royals have come on 4 different dealt hands. I believe 2 were from RF3 and 2 were from RF4 but I didn't track it. I have had 2 sets of deuces from a dealt hand either once or twice. No dealt deuces.

Up to 117.44% after 4944 dealt hands ( 49440 total hands).

>> Fascinating. Still no reason to expect a non-random result on a relatively short trial, of course. You can only hope for a similar session in the casino :wink: <<

This includes breaking up a dealt WRF with 3 deuces and not filling in any of them.

>> Ouch?? (I'm not referring to the sour luck ... I've little doubt that you know it's a close call to breaking dealt 5k in FPDW, and a no-go in NSUD. So I assume that this was a momentary lapse into "ducks lust" :wink:

The ER hit from session errors likely ran to 0.2% or higher ... that should have caught your eye with some concern (but I'm bordering on self-righteousness here ...) <<

The 'Best Return' is 26448 ( from the Error Effect On Total Return section of Winpoker). That means my average dealt hand is worth 1.06999 which means I am getting dealt monster starting hands and then filling them in way more than expected.

This has given me a couple of ideas for features in the next DRA release. And Harry, to answer your question about DRA multiline release, I was doing some beta testing. The finished product isn't out yet.

>> Got ya. Just making sure I hadn't been "asleep at the wheel" on the release (which I understand will likely be timed sometime early this summer)

The added multiline analytics to DRA (along with the offer to tailor up to 5 game paytables for registered users (which can include games such as STP or (I believe) UX, makes this inexpensive tool and outstanding addition the the arsenal of any serious player who desires to get their hands firmly around a game's bankroll risk.

(Again, I'll note that this tool is used in conjunction with an existing MS Excel install) <<

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]