One note: There are 45 combos out of 16215 that improve a pair to a quad or
1 in 360-1/3.
No strategy changes for the double pay on quad 7s. Games like high fives
have such changes not only for the 100-1 on quads but the triplet pays 5
for 1 instead of 3 for 1.
···
[Original Message]
From: Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@gmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: 6/14/2005 5:16:53 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] WinPoker questionAck, yeah, I got it wrong. That should have been (1/13*(50-25)/25)),
i.e. adding 100% to the value of quad-7 (I mistakenly used 50%),
resulting in something just a tiny bit below 100%, as you found out.JBQ
On 6/14/05, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@gmail.com> wrote:
> The EV feels too high.
>
> By instinct (I insist, this is pure instinct), the strategy is going
> to be mostly (or entirely) unchanged - the only part there which might
> have been affected could have been a pair of 7 vs. 4 to a flush or 3
> to a RF, but the gap between the EV of a low pair and of those hands
> is just too big to make the pair of 7s worth considering (the chance
> of improving a pair into quads is less than 1 in 1000).
>
> Therefore, the frequency of quad-7s with perfect play is probably
> going to be the same as with the regular strategy. I'll guess that the
> frequency of all quads if roughly the same, i.e. that the bonus on
> quad-7 increases the overall value of quads by approximately 1/26
> (1/13*25/50) of their regular value, i.e. close to .23% (1/26 of
> 5.9%). I wouldn't be surprised by an EV around 99.77%.
>
> I'm sure that the experts on the list will be able to give you some
> deeper details (and possibly tell me if and where my reasoning falls
> apart).
>
> JBQ
>
> On 6/14/05, kbrandon75407 <kbrandon@peoplepc.com> wrote:
> > I'm leaving Sunday morning for my first Vegas trip. I've been
> > practicing my VP play with WinPoker. I checked the database & it
> > shows the New Frontier has .25 9/6 JoB w/Quad 7 bonus. I tried
> > creating this game in WinPoker & thought I did it correctly. However,
> > when I hit a quad 7, it only paid the regular payout for 4oak. I have
> > to say the Help portion of the software wasn't much help.
> >
> > Anyway, according to the WinPoker analysis of this paytable, it shows
> > an EV of 100.42% with a variance of 19.xxx. Does that sound right? I
> > think I've got it set up wrong.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Kevin
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
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