vpFREE2 Forums

winning and losing

I'm starting to wonder if I shouldn't gamble for longer periods of time to
get those royals. Recently it seems like if I play for 2 hours or so at a
time, no royals come, even when playing 5 play.. But I was just in New
Orleans and actually hit 5 royals (on 5-play NSU) during the trip. The
difference was I played at least 6 hours a day, maybe more, and of course that
plus 5 play meant a lot of hands of play. I stuck on the same machine on
day 1, even coming back after dinner. On day 2 picked a different machine,
but stayed with it throughout the day on and off. Same thing on day 3.

There were a lot of downdrafts too, such as putting in $4700 in machine #1
without hitting a royal OR deuces! Then finally deuces came, and
eventually the royal and more deuces, etc.

The point of what I'm saying is that even on FP machines, you may have to
play a long time and go through a lot of volatility before getting royals
(or even deuces).

At one point I noticed a lack of 3 deuces ever being dealt to me (on the
initial deal). I started recording what 3 of a kinds were dealt, and found
that something like 54 different 3 of a kinds were dealt, before I finally
received 3 deuces! I kept recording this during my session, and eventually
more trip deuces did show up. When I did the final countout, it turned out
that deuces actually had shown up on an average of 1 in 14 times, so not
that much off expectation, but I did have that initial bad run. So this
just goes to show how much volatility you can have, and that the "long run"
that we look for can be 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of hands.

Thus, for those of you who are not getting royals or losing on many trips,
perhaps the thing to check is - how much bankroll do you have? Are you
being wiped out because you don't bring enough bankroll to sit through the
volatility? And, how much are you playing? - perhaps you need to play
longer.

Of course, sometimes you do sit there for hours and hours and hours and
never hit the royal, but it does seem like I've had better "luck" if I am able
to sit at the same machine for really long periods (unless of course I
really do luck out and hit a royal early on - something which does happen, but
not that often).

I often run into people who say "I've never hit a royal and I play video
poker all the time." But I have a feeling these casual players just aren't
playing for very long at each session. Definitely my experience is the
logical one, the more you play, the more royals you are likely to get.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

misscraps wrote:

Definitely my experience is the logical one, the more you play, the
more royals you are likely to get.

Bev and I have played through 135,200 hands since our last royal in single line play.

Based on your experience, you might amend that to write, "the more 5-play you play ..." :wink:

- H.

Or getting ahead.

http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@... wrote:

The point of what I'm saying is that even on FP machines, you may have to
play a long time and go through a lot of volatility before getting royals
(or even deuces).

Harry, I don't need to write that you are a good player. Many of your posts over the years indicate a level of skill and insight that cannot be disputed.

I can only share what I do in these situations. It always seems to work. And when I have been at my lowest low, I always seem to be lifted up. It has nothing to do with awaiting the "expected" long-term result.

I simply move on and play elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting that you have played all 135,200 hands at the same casino or on the same game. I just know that you are expert enough to realize that luck is a factor in VP outcomes. And if you are anything like me you probably cannot "outwait" a machine physically or financially. I have never found it useful to know mathematically that after 4 million hands without a royal I chould then get 100 royals in short order to "catch up". I'd be out of the game way before then.

There are certain casinos with close to 100% games where I simply do not win. I don't mean every single time. But I do suggest an overall long-term losing record where I can't reasonably expect repeated "miracles" to ever help me catch up.

So, instead of chasing my money I moved on. And it seems I recoup fairly quickly. I haven't shown a net annual loss in years and enjoy all the "perks" that you and many others enjoy along the way.

Again, as I have stated often in the past, I never get too "comfortable". Venture elsewhere, and I suspect the outcome will be the positive one you deserve.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

misscraps wrote:
> Definitely my experience is the logical one, the more you play, the
> more royals you are likely to get.

Bev and I have played through 135,200 hands since our last royal in single line play.

Based on your experience, you might amend that to write, "the more 5-play you play ..." :wink:

- H.

Maybe the fix is in?

Though, "close to 100%" is typically a longterm 50-50 proposition, which equates to a high risk of ruin. It's basically a battle of bankrolls, your bankroll (tolerance for loss) versus the casino's tolerance of how much they'll let you win before they back you off.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:

There are certain casinos with close to 100% games where I simply do not win.

To touch on this subject..
I started off last year, in May, (may 10th to be exact) playing vP on a skilled level...never before then did I really look for good pay scales, or even play max (5) coins...
So, of course, that first time, I hit a quarter royal on my first $20 bill..then, I quit for the day...next day, different casino..DEALT quarter royal on my first $20 bill. Again, quit for the day...Came back the next weekend, this time, I knew it had to be more unlucky..ran through $100 before I hit ANOTHER quarter royal. That was May of 08..since then, I have played a LOT of vP, and only hit two royals (neither were quarters, both were dimes). However, I never play multi-play, only single line, so I'd say I probably have a WHILE to go before I'll see another royal...

mikeymic wrote:

There are certain casinos with close to 100% games where I simply do not win.

I disagree with your tense. Isn't "have not won" more accurate?
You're implying that you have a theory for why you don't win at
certain casinos.

I don't mean every single time. But I do suggest an overall long-term losing record where I can't reasonably expect repeated "miracles" to ever help me catch up.

What is your theory for how you will catch up at other casinos and not
at the one at which you've lost?

So, instead of chasing my money I moved on. And it seems I recoup fairly quickly.

Again, you use "recoup" as if it's an ongoing process instead of a
past event. What causes that process to work how it does?

I actually considered writing a post earlier this month titled "What Do You Expect?". The long term result of anything less than 100% return is a loss. Many vpFREE members (including myself at an earlier point) might have unrealistic expectations of the net wins they will achieve.

It truly is a battle to stay ahead. And getting good comps (which in a way represent your actual "profit" on anything less than a 100% game) has also become a battle. Thus, casinos like the Venetian drive away players now with exorbitant coin-in requirements to earn points.

At any of the "bonus" games you are at the mercy of great hands. I'm sure I have had more than my share of "Four Deuces" over the years. So, I've managed to stay afloat of the 99.73% NSUD return. Subtract the return from hitting Four Deuces over my play history and my record would no doubt be a solid net loss each and every year.

Last Saturday is a good example. I was literally down to my last $50 on a $5 Five Play and was dealt two deuces. I then drew the other two on one of the hands. A negative session became positive at the last possible moment. From -$2500 to +$2500 just like that.

My personal goal is not a six figure income at VP which I'm sure some of you achieve. It isn't realistic for me. But it COULD happen. Instead, I merely concentrate on trying to stay positive (mentally and results-wise) and get treated well along the way. So far it has worked out.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Maybe the fix is in?

Though, "close to 100%" is typically a longterm 50-50 proposition, which equates to a high risk of ruin. It's basically a battle of bankrolls, your bankroll (tolerance for loss) versus the casino's tolerance of how much they'll let you win before they back you off.