vpFREE2 Forums

Will $300 last 3-4 hours at $.25 9/6 JOB VP?

#1

This year, I have a personal goal to reach Platinum at Harrah's playing
$.25 9/6 JOB. Figuring $40,000/$1.25 hand = 32,000 hands / 12 months =
2666 hands a month / 800 hand average per hour = ~3.3 hours a month.

I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my chances
that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the session?

I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com and at
worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140. Based on
prior experience, I know I have gone though $40 in 10 minutes
sometimes.

#2

pflyers7475 wrote:

I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my chances
that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the
session?

Not a bad $.25 session bankroll at all. VP for Winners software
calculates risk of ruin at just over 5%.

I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com and
at worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140

Sounds like "lowest" is defined as what will see you through about
half the time. ($140 is good for a 53% shot at lasting out the session)

- Harry

#3

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

pflyers7475 wrote:
> I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my

chances

> that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the
> session?

Not a bad $.25 session bankroll at all. VP for Winners software
calculates risk of ruin at just over 5%.

> I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com

and

> at worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140

Sounds like "lowest" is defined as what will see you through about
half the time. ($140 is good for a 53% shot at lasting out the

session)

- Harry

Thanks for the research. I feel much better now. If possible, could
you tell me what the risk of ruin might be for these other 2
situations?

$300 for 7 hours/5333 hands.
$100 for 3 hours/2666 hands.

Thanks :slight_smile:

#4

Wow - if that's the case then I've hit that 5% many many times in the past
year.

I've easily lost $300 in a lot less than those number of hours and/or number
of hands playing 9/6 JOB.

I find it amazing how often someone can land in the 5% category :slight_smile:

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
  Sent: Sunday, January 11, 2009 7:05 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Will $300 last 3-4 hours at $.25 9/6 JOB VP?

  pflyers7475 wrote:
  > I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my chances
  > that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the
  > session?

  Not a bad $.25 session bankroll at all. VP for Winners software
  calculates risk of ruin at just over 5%.

  > I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com and
  > at worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140

  Sounds like "lowest" is defined as what will see you through about
  half the time. ($140 is good for a 53% shot at lasting out the session)

  - Harry

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

This year, I have a personal goal to reach Platinum at Harrah's

playing

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pflyers7475" <pflyers7475@...> wrote:

$.25 9/6 JOB. Figuring $40,000/$1.25 hand = 32,000 hands / 12 months

=

2666 hands a month / 800 hand average per hour = ~3.3 hours a month.

I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my chances
that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the

session?

I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com and

at

worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140. Based on
prior experience, I know I have gone though $40 in 10 minutes
sometimes.

The problem is that I don't think that you'll be able to find 9/6 $.25
video poker in Harrah's (at least not in Las Vegas or Reno).

#6

>
> This year, I have a personal goal to reach Platinum at Harrah's
playing
> $.25 9/6 JOB. Figuring $40,000/$1.25 hand = 32,000 hands / 12

months

=
> 2666 hands a month / 800 hand average per hour = ~3.3 hours a

month.

>
> I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my

chances

> that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the
session?
>
> I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at vpgenius.com

and

at
> worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140. Based

on

> prior experience, I know I have gone though $40 in 10 minutes
> sometimes.
>
The problem is that I don't think that you'll be able to find 9/6

$.25

video poker in Harrah's (at least not in Las Vegas or Reno).

Sorry, I should have added that I will be playing in AC. Each of the
Harrah's properties have a few 9/6 JOB machines.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "midorinish" <midorinish@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pflyers7475" <pflyers7475@> wrote:

#7

pflyers7475 wrote:
> I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my
> chances that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands
> for the session?

Harry Porter wrote:

Not a bad $.25 session bankroll at all. VP for Winners software
calculates risk of ruin at just over 5%.

pflyers7475 wrote:

Thanks for the research. I feel much better now. If possible, could
you tell me what the risk of ruin might be for these other 2
situations?

$300 for 7 hours/5333 hands.
$100 for 3 hours/2666 hands.

Ballparking from the earlier numbers: If $300 sees you through 3.5 hr
w/ a 5% risk of ruin, playing through twice as long will be met with a
25% risk of ruin. (Double time, risk is squared)

Experience likely tells you that $100 will see you through 3 hours
only about 1/3 of the time.

If questions of this sort intrigue you, VP for Winners won't be a bad
investment.
http://www.bobdancer.com/showbook.cfm?itemnumber=1519BD

- H.

#8

I can confirm Harry's 5% RoR estimate for a $300 bankroll, 2666
hands. Also, there's more than a 99.5% chance that you would get to
play at least 1600 hands before going broke.

As for your follow-up questions…

1. $300 for 7 hrs/5333 hands:

RoR jumps to 28%. Here's a table of final bankroll probabilities:

Final Bank, Win/Loss, Probability of Outcome
  0, lose 100%, 28%
1 - 59, lose 80% to 99%, 5%
60 - 119, lose 60% to 80%, 10%
120 - 179, lose 40% to 60%, 11%
180 - 239, lose 20% to 40%, 11%
240 - 299, lose up to 20% 8%,
300 - 359, win up to 20% 6%,
360 - 419, win 20% to 40%, 4%
420 - 479, win 40% to 60%, 2%
480 - 539, win 60% to 80%, 1%
540 - 599, win 80% to 99+%, 1%
600 +, double or more, 12%

Here's a table showing how many hands you get to play before going
broke:

HANDS BEFORE RUIN, % COMPLETED, PROBABILITY
0 - 532, less than 10% 0%
533 - 1066, 10% to 20%, 0%
1067 - 1599, 20% to 30%, 0%
1600 - 2132, 30% to 40%, 2%
2133 - 2666, 40% to 50%, 3%
2667 - 3199, 50% to 60%, 4%
3200 - 3732, 60% to 70%, 5%
3733 - 4265, 70% to 80%, 5%
4266 - 4799, 80% to 90%, 5%
4800 - 5332, 90% to 99%, 4%
5333 (no ruin), 100% (no ruin), 72%

2. $100 for 3 hrs/2666 hands:

You will go broke 63% of the time with a $100 bankroll. 39% of the
time you will not even reach the half-way mark of 1333 hands.

All the above figures come from Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video
Poker. (shock!)

--Dunbar
  

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@>
wrote:
>
> pflyers7475 wrote:
> > I am planning to take $300 with me for gambling. What are my
chances
> > that $300 will not last me though 3.3 hours/2666 hands for the
> > session?
>
> Not a bad $.25 session bankroll at all. VP for Winners software
> calculates risk of ruin at just over 5%.
>
>
> > I have run about 20 10,000 hand simulations over at

vpgenius.com

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pflyers7475" <pflyers7475@...> wrote:

and
> > at worse, it came up with a "lowest bankroll" amount of ~$140
>
> Sounds like "lowest" is defined as what will see you through about
> half the time. ($140 is good for a 53% shot at lasting out the
session)
>
> - Harry
>

Thanks for the research. I feel much better now. If possible, could
you tell me what the risk of ruin might be for these other 2
situations?

$300 for 7 hours/5333 hands.
$100 for 3 hours/2666 hands.

Thanks :slight_smile: