vpFREE2 Forums

Why you shouldn't quit your day job

#1

This poster doesn't care to share his identity with
any casino lurkers so I'm posting it anonymously.

vpFREE Administrator

···

**************

Today is Super Bowl Sunday & I've decided to stay away from all the
craziness. Instead of watching the game, I'm using the day to reflect
on a recent 4-day winning streak where I hit 5 royals for 18.5 hours of
play. It's streaks like these where you dream of following in Bob
Dancer's footsteps & dream of parlaying your small win into a $100,000
royal flush then a $400,000 royal flush.

Sooner or later, we will hit a streak that's not only a boost to the
pocketbook but also an ego-booster. These periods have been my downfall
in the past because I began to play above my bankroll.

This latest streak didn't get me too excited as it followed a year of
losses that were seemingly unrelenting. Losing is a lot easier to take
if you think about it as paying for an education. One of the things
that came out of last year was to get more analytical about my results.
This takes a lot of fun out of the "lucky" wins but it also mitigates the
pain of the long losing streaks.

This is the procedure I follow (admittedly rough as I'm still refining
it):

1. Calculate expected win/loss %.
2. Apply % to total coin-in to get expected win/loss.
3. Add bounceback/cashback or any other $ received that was not from play.
4. Subtract expected win for events such as progressive royals.
5. Divide by total hours to get $/hr.

For my 4 days:

1. % were from -0.5% to 3.31% (progressive & cashback included)
2. $ 887
3. $ 325
    $ 1212 total expected win
4. -$ 982 for progressive royal
    $ 230 total less progressive royal
5. $ 12/hr

If the progressive royal is included, the $/hr is $66/hr. I was lucky
enough to get the royal on a 3-card draw. Realistically it rarely
happens.

Of my other royals 3 were 2-card draws & 1 was a 4-card draw.

Total win was $24,155. Yes, I was winning without the royals. Before &
after the these 4 days, I lost $5K.

What looks good is that this was done in 18 hours. What isn't included
are all the hours traveling, prospecting, analyzing & deciding what's
the best game to play for the promotion or whatever the current
conditions are. Before I start to play, I often spend about 2 hrs on
pre-play analysis after learning what the conditions are not only at
the casino where I'm staying but also at other casinos. In a way, this is
similar to what happens on your job as most people spend a lot of time
in transit, at the water cooler for the latest tidbit about the
workplace & maybe 2-4 hrs doing real work.

The progressive royal was taken out as this is an unusual event. Most
of these unusual events share some common elements:

1. A lot of looking to find it.
2. Being able to play it; seat availability, bankroll & stamina.
3. Hitting the event; RF, 4 of a kind, having YOUR name drawn, etc.

So on your next lucky streak, analyze your results to make sure you
know how much of it was due to luck & how little of it was due to skill.

Skill just keeps you alive between lucky streaks.

#2

Wow.

Instead of spending 2 hours "prospecting" and worrying
about pointless casino promotions before you even start to play, why
not just set some attainable short-term goals, play whatever machine
you like, win or lose your goals, take whatever comp you've got
coming, then leave? Obviously you have the bankroll, drive, and
discipline. It just needs to be used the correct way.

Machines DO pay out big winners regardless of what promotions are
going on, right? You would have hit the royal had you not spent
time prospecting right?

I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
supposed to be fun.

This is the procedure I follow (admittedly rough as I'm still

refining

it):

1. Calculate expected win/loss %.
2. Apply % to total coin-in to get expected win/loss.
3. Add bounceback/cashback or any other $ received that was not

from play.

···

4. Subtract expected win for events such as progressive royals.
5. Divide by total hours to get $/hr.

For my 4 days:

1. % were from -0.5% to 3.31% (progressive & cashback included)
2. $ 887
3. $ 325
    $ 1212 total expected win
4. -$ 982 for progressive royal
    $ 230 total less progressive royal
5. $ 12/hr

#3

I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
supposed to be fun.

I've said it before, I'll say it again -- a lot of people seem to enjoy
playing Excel more than they enjoy playing video poker.

*shrug* To each their own, I guess.

But I've also noticed that, in general, the people who seem most concerned
about maximizing each percentage of play and scoring each and every coupon
are the people who play the lowest denomination games.

I personally wouldn't spend 2 hours sorting coupons and doing calculations
preparing to play $100 through a few $0.25 machines.

I'd damn sure do it if I were playing $50,000 through $25 machines, though.

I suppose some folks just get a certain type of strange satisfaction about
wringing every last ounce of perceived "advantage" out of the casinos, which
is sort of a game in and of itself.

But these are the same people that make anyone in a sales or service
business lose their minds. :smiley:

#4

<<I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
supposed to be fun.>>

I have more fun when I plan and look for the best plays. Planning is one of the main factors that separate the long-term winners from the long-term losers.

···

____________________
Jean $¢ott - Go to http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
for VP software and strategy cards; "frugal" books;
and the NEW "Tax Help for the Frugal Gambler."

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Careful, you're beginning to sound like a certain gambler who's
name shall go unmentioned, but his initials are R.B.

   TM & VP

   "Life is just one very long gambling session."
                    --VP Pappy

···

======================================================================
In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomvpatl" <tomvpatl@y...> wrote:

Wow.

Instead of spending 2 hours "prospecting" and worrying
about pointless casino promotions before you even start to play,

why

not just set some attainable short-term goals, play whatever

machine

you like, win or lose your goals, take whatever comp you've got
coming, then leave? Obviously you have the bankroll, drive, and
discipline. It just needs to be used the correct way.

Machines DO pay out big winners regardless of what promotions are
going on, right? You would have hit the royal had you not spent
time prospecting right?

I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
supposed to be fun.

> This is the procedure I follow (admittedly rough as I'm still
refining
> it):
>
> 1. Calculate expected win/loss %.
> 2. Apply % to total coin-in to get expected win/loss.
> 3. Add bounceback/cashback or any other $ received that was not
from play.
> 4. Subtract expected win for events such as progressive royals.
> 5. Divide by total hours to get $/hr.
>
> For my 4 days:
>
> 1. % were from -0.5% to 3.31% (progressive & cashback included)
> 2. $ 887
> 3. $ 325
> $ 1212 total expected win
> 4. -$ 982 for progressive royal
> $ 230 total less progressive royal
> 5. $ 12/hr

#6

Make those initials R.S.
   
   TM & VP

···

======================================================================
In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomvpatl" <tomvpatl@y...> wrote:

Wow.

Instead of spending 2 hours "prospecting" and worrying
about pointless casino promotions before you even start to play,

why

not just set some attainable short-term goals, play whatever

machine

you like, win or lose your goals, take whatever comp you've got
coming, then leave? Obviously you have the bankroll, drive, and
discipline. It just needs to be used the correct way.

Machines DO pay out big winners regardless of what promotions are
going on, right? You would have hit the royal had you not spent
time prospecting right?

I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
supposed to be fun.

> This is the procedure I follow (admittedly rough as I'm still
refining
> it):
>
> 1. Calculate expected win/loss %.
> 2. Apply % to total coin-in to get expected win/loss.
> 3. Add bounceback/cashback or any other $ received that was not
from play.
> 4. Subtract expected win for events such as progressive royals.
> 5. Divide by total hours to get $/hr.
>
> For my 4 days:
>
> 1. % were from -0.5% to 3.31% (progressive & cashback included)
> 2. $ 887
> 3. $ 325
> $ 1212 total expected win
> 4. -$ 982 for progressive royal
> $ 230 total less progressive royal
> 5. $ 12/hr

#7

Pappy, I know you are just joking, but that is the one big negative I have found
about this group. Any poster who sounds like R.S. is ostracized.

I'll "save it for later" on my full blown RANT, but just to make a point here: R.S.
does NOT own these ideas, most are common sense that comes from
experience and from the value we put on our spare time.
- chasing comps & promotions can take up a lot of time,
- clipping coupons is a tacky way to save a few dollars
- playing full-pay machines is NOT the only way to make a profit playing VP
- being a full-pay "snob" down to the last 0.1% (as in 99.9% return is no
good) is a ridiculous attitude and someday, when all the full-pay machines
are gone, you will be untrained and maybe even incapable of profitting from a
sub-full-pay strategy.

Check the nearby reply of Jean Scott: "When to walk away" :
- when you hit a jackpot (celebrate!)
- when you reach you win (/loss) goal
Sounds like banned philosophy? Pappy: YOU tell Jean that she sounds like
RS. (Not me!)

I think the post you replied to, Pappy, was in the vein of "don't be so serious".
I know you agree, I sure do. For those that do a lot of pre-planning, more
power to you. It's all part of the Pre-Play-Time anticipation & ritual that is part
of the excitement of this game.

~Mark

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vppappy" <tismurph@h...> wrote:

   Careful, you're beginning to sound like a certain gambler who's
name shall go unmentioned, but his initials are R.B.

   TM & VP

   "Life is just one very long gambling session."
                    --VP Pappy

==========================================================

============

In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomvpatl" <tomvpatl@y...> wrote:

>
> Wow.
>
> Instead of spending 2 hours "prospecting" and worrying
> about pointless casino promotions before you even start to play,
why
> not just set some attainable short-term goals, play whatever
machine
> you like, win or lose your goals, take whatever comp you've got
> coming, then leave? Obviously you have the bankroll, drive, and
> discipline. It just needs to be used the correct way.
>
> Machines DO pay out big winners regardless of what promotions are
> going on, right? You would have hit the royal had you not spent
> time prospecting right?
>
> I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker was
> supposed to be fun.
>
>
> > This is the procedure I follow (admittedly rough as I'm still
> refining
> > it):
> >
> > 1. Calculate expected win/loss %.
> > 2. Apply % to total coin-in to get expected win/loss.
> > 3. Add bounceback/cashback or any other $ received that was not
> from play.
> > 4. Subtract expected win for events such as progressive royals.
> > 5. Divide by total hours to get $/hr.
> >
> > For my 4 days:
> >
> > 1. % were from -0.5% to 3.31% (progressive & cashback included)
> > 2. $ 887
> > 3. $ 325
> > $ 1212 total expected win
> > 4. -$ 982 for progressive royal
> > $ 230 total less progressive royal
> > 5. $ 12/hr

#8

Define "long term".

The best play is winning something, every session, regardless of
casino. When I come to Vegas, I don't have eternity, I don't want
to stand in line to redeem stuff, I need to win something that day
or weekend, and i don't want to play for 8 or more hours to do it.

Best play for me is comfort, tito, air that is smoke free, and nice
scenery.

And I do have a plan for every session, which is usually attained
98% of the time, upon which i quit (so I guess that means I'm a long-
term winner huh?) but it doesn't involve worrying about slot clubs,
$ per hour nonsense.

Afterwards, I'll take whatever freebies they wanna give me, provided
I don't have to spend more than 5 minutes in a line of people to get
them.

I'm now "quadsatl", tomvpatl account no longer works for some reason.
Also I have no idea who or what "RS" is, please fill me in.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...>
wrote:

<<I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker

was

supposed to be fun.>>

I have more fun when I plan and look for the best plays. Planning

is one of the main factors that separate the long-term winners from
the long-term losers.

#9

quadsatl wrote:

Define "long term".

It probably means something different to folks who _skillfully_ play BJ,
Poker, control dice, or knowledgably engage in 'sports betting' -- and I
presume from the rest of your post that you are doing at least one of
those things rather than focusing on VP (or God forbid, slots). Video
Poker, on the other hand, has a "long term" of at least _many_ hundreds
of thousands of hands, and the greater the number (longer the term), the
closer your experience will approach statistical expectations. Here is
the definition/examples from the vpFREE site:

7. What is the long term? - Theoretically speaking, the long term is
forever. For video poker purposes, the long term is when you have played
a lot of hands (several million at a minimum) and actual results are
about the same as expected results. Tom Ski calculates (with a 95%
confidence factor) that the actual results for 10/7 DB, played with
perfect strategy, should be within 1.0% of expected results after
1,085,465 hands, and within 0.1% after 108,546,482 hands.

Obviously, none of us are ever going to play 108 million hands, and
_most_ folks will never play anywhere near even the one million hands to
_expect_ to fall within 1.0% of long-term statistics. But we each form
part of the pool that does, and each one of our individual sessions also
forms a part of that pool; the ER is true for the pool, but the _parts_
of the pool are likely to be somewhere above or below the long term
expectations. Short individual sessions can fall anywhere above or
below expectations, but if we add all of our personal small sessions
together to form a larger fraction of the pool, then accuracy is
improved and our lifetime experience comes closer to the long-term
expectations of the entire pool. This is expected to happen as the
total number of games played gets larger and larger. This is why people
accurately say that there is only one session for each player -- their
entire life -- because probability is not affected by whether you take a
5 minute rest-room break, or an hour lunch break, or go to sleep for 8
hours, or leave and come back next weekend ... or next month ... or next
year. You just pick up in your total game count wherever you left off.

The best play is winning something, every session, regardless of
casino. When I come to Vegas, I don't have eternity, I don't want
to stand in line to redeem stuff, I need to win something that day
or weekend, and i don't want to play for 8 or more hours to do it.

Best play for me is comfort, tito, air that is smoke free, and nice
scenery.

TITO at the tables?? I haven't seen that yet.

And I do have a plan for every session, which is usually attained
98% of the time, upon which i quit (so I guess that means I'm a long-
term winner huh?) but it doesn't involve worrying about slot clubs,
$ per hour nonsense.

Most of us here at vpFREE speak in reference to Video Poker, and I'm
sure that this is what Jean was referring to. And I'm sure that you are
probably NOT speaking about VP, but something else such as poker or BJ
which makes slot club membership a lot less important.

Afterwards, I'll take whatever freebies they wanna give me, provided
I don't have to spend more than 5 minutes in a line of people to get
them.

Well, worth is relative. Bill Gates wouldn't bother with freebies. But
there are a lot of folks who find it worthwhile to stand in line for
quite some time to get a few hundred dollars worth of freebies. Of
course, if a person plays single-coin nickels, and takes his time doing
it, it probably isn't going to be worth standing in line.

I'm now "quadsatl", tomvpatl account no longer works for some reason.
Also I have no idea who or what "RS" is, please fill me in.

He who shall remain nameless -- see FAQ No. #49 on
http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/VP/FAQ.htm

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...>
wrote:
> <<I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker
was
> supposed to be fun.>>
>
> I have more fun when I plan and look for the best plays. Planning
is one of the main factors that separate the long-term winners from
the long-term losers.

Cheers.

Bill Velek

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

Nope I don't play tables, not sure why you thought that. I'm
strictly playing VP (BP, DB, DDB), for money, not comps. Like I said
though, if there's no line, I'll stop at the booth and see if they
wanna give me some cash back to add to what I won, otherwise I'll
move on and maybe check back later.

I prefer the new tito machines for convienience, and they usually
have the nicer graphics/screens.

I don't buy this long term nonsense. The only person who owns the
long term is the casino boss. If I was to play a bazillion 10/7 DB
hands over eternity, I'd sure want something more than .1725 to show
for it, otherwise why bother! Assuming that would even happen, NOT.
More than likely, playing a bazillion hands with no goal, no stopping
point, is going to leave me bankrupt, no matter how perfect I play.

However, if I cash out ahead every time I play, my payback percentage
is going to skyrocket past the long term expectation, is it not??

quadsatl wrote:

> Define "long term".

It probably means something different to folks who _skillfully_

play BJ,

Poker, control dice, or knowledgably engage in 'sports betting' --

and I

presume from the rest of your post that you are doing at least one

of

those things rather than focusing on VP (or God forbid, slots).

Video

Poker, on the other hand, has a "long term" of at least _many_

hundreds

of thousands of hands, and the greater the number (longer the

term), the

closer your experience will approach statistical expectations.

Here is

the definition/examples from the vpFREE site:

7. What is the long term? - Theoretically speaking, the long

term is

forever. For video poker purposes, the long term is when you have

played

a lot of hands (several million at a minimum) and actual results

are

about the same as expected results. Tom Ski calculates (with a 95%
confidence factor) that the actual results for 10/7 DB, played with
perfect strategy, should be within 1.0% of expected results after
1,085,465 hands, and within 0.1% after 108,546,482 hands.

Obviously, none of us are ever going to play 108 million hands, and
_most_ folks will never play anywhere near even the one million

hands to

_expect_ to fall within 1.0% of long-term statistics. But we each

form

part of the pool that does, and each one of our individual sessions

also

forms a part of that pool; the ER is true for the pool, but the

_parts_

of the pool are likely to be somewhere above or below the long term
expectations. Short individual sessions can fall anywhere above or
below expectations, but if we add all of our personal small

sessions

together to form a larger fraction of the pool, then accuracy is
improved and our lifetime experience comes closer to the long-term
expectations of the entire pool. This is expected to happen as the
total number of games played gets larger and larger. This is why

people

accurately say that there is only one session for each player --

their

entire life -- because probability is not affected by whether you

take a

5 minute rest-room break, or an hour lunch break, or go to sleep

for 8

hours, or leave and come back next weekend ... or next month ... or

next

year. You just pick up in your total game count wherever you left

off.

> The best play is winning something, every session, regardless of
> casino. When I come to Vegas, I don't have eternity, I don't want
> to stand in line to redeem stuff, I need to win something that day
> or weekend, and i don't want to play for 8 or more hours to do it.
>
> Best play for me is comfort, tito, air that is smoke free, and

nice

> scenery.

TITO at the tables?? I haven't seen that yet.

> And I do have a plan for every session, which is usually attained
> 98% of the time, upon which i quit (so I guess that means I'm a

long-

> term winner huh?) but it doesn't involve worrying about slot

clubs,

> $ per hour nonsense.

Most of us here at vpFREE speak in reference to Video Poker, and

I'm

sure that this is what Jean was referring to. And I'm sure that

you are

probably NOT speaking about VP, but something else such as poker or

BJ

which makes slot club membership a lot less important.

> Afterwards, I'll take whatever freebies they wanna give me,

provided

> I don't have to spend more than 5 minutes in a line of people to

get

> them.

Well, worth is relative. Bill Gates wouldn't bother with

freebies. But

there are a lot of folks who find it worthwhile to stand in line

for

quite some time to get a few hundred dollars worth of freebies. Of
course, if a person plays single-coin nickels, and takes his time

doing

it, it probably isn't going to be worth standing in line.

> I'm now "quadsatl", tomvpatl account no longer works for some

reason.

> Also I have no idea who or what "RS" is, please fill me in.

He who shall remain nameless -- see FAQ No. #49 on
http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/VP/FAQ.htm

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...>
> wrote:
> > <<I didn't know this was an hourly job....I thought video poker
> was
> > supposed to be fun.>>
> >
> > I have more fun when I plan and look for the best plays.

Planning

> is one of the main factors that separate the long-term winners

from

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bill Velek <billvelek@a...> wrote:

> the long-term losers.

Cheers.

Bill Velek

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

I'm now "quadsatl", tomvpatl account no longer works for some reason.
Also I have no idea who or what "RS" is, please fill me in.

Does anyone think that this is about as believable as a wardrobe
malfunction?
                                        Nudge

···

From: "quadsatl" <quadsatl@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Why you shouldn't quit your day job

#12

"quadsatl" <quadsatl@y...> wrote:

However, if I cash out ahead every time I play, my payback
percentage is going to skyrocket past the long term expectation,
is it not??

This issue was addressed by an eminent teacher (I forget whether it
was Buddha, Plato, or Bob Dancer) who said: "If my grandmother had
testicles, she'd be my grandfather."

Which is to say... it's not always possible to cash out ahead. This
is not only supported theoretically, but has been experienced by
almost everyone who plays VP regularly. In *most* sessions, there's
at least one point where we can cash out ahead, but not *always*.
Those few large losses will balance out the many small wins. The
confusion between "most" and "always" is what causes the faulty
belief that such a system will increase profit or reduce losses.

This is of course assuming that one's goal is to make the most or
lose the least money. If one wants to maximize the number of winning
sessions, then the system is correct.

Stuart (RandomStu)
sresnick2@comcast.net
http://home.comcast.net/~sresnick2/mypage.htm

#13

quadsatl wrote:

Nope I don't play tables, not sure why you thought that.

snip

That was because it was hard to believe that you could be saying such things if you were primarily a VP player.

However, if I cash out ahead every time I play, my payback percentage
is going to skyrocket past the long term expectation, is it not??

NO! ... because that isn't going to happen. And if you think it will, then I sure don't have time to argue with you about it. Believe what you want to believe. All I can say is that if this has been your experience, it is only because you have been very lucky. VP, even when played expertly, has very marginal edges -- yet you seem to scorn cash back which is a BIG part of the edge, and then you follow it with a remark like "If I was to play a bazillion 10/7 DB hands over eternity, I'd sure want something more than .1725 to show for it, otherwise why bother! So I take it that you have somehow managed, in 98% of your sessions, to make more than that. You said you don't want to play 8 or more hours in a day or weekend, so unless you're playing at the speed of light, your sessions don't represent enough play to statistically expect the jackpots -- certainly not in 98% of your sessions, and without the jackpots ... every single VP game I've ever looked at has a distinct negative expectation. Now, even if you have come up with some remarkable strategy that gives you an equal 50/50 chance of a being ahead or behind at the end of a session, the chances that you would end ahead 98% of the time -- if for a significant number of sessions -- becomes astronomical.

snip

Bill Velek