vpFREE2 Forums

Why MCR

Before I play, I have already determined that the particular
game/platform/denomination is well within my personal ROR tolerance. Therefore, I can always
feel completely comfortable playing MER strategy. And that is what I do.

According to you, NO ONE has the goal of maximizing ER, since no sane player
would bet his entire net worth on a single bet. Handy, since you like
exploring/explaining alternate strategies, that MER is to be rejected out of hand.
Sounds pretty self-serving to me. After all, MER strategy has been thoroughly
explored, so you must reject it in order to show that there is a reason to
explore alternate strategies. If everyone simply decided that MER strategy is
best for them, you would have nothing of practical interest to talk about.
Theoretical interest, maybe...

Practical players first assess the risk, then decide if it an acceptable one
to them. Once this process is complete, MER is the strategy I use, and it is
an informed decision. If you can persuade others to adapt other strategies,
great! They will win less, and the good plays might last a bit longer. So
please, carry on!

Brian

···

===================================

In a message dated 8/9/2006 7:56:27 AM Pacific Standard Time,
jacobs@xmission.com writes:

For every VP hand I am dealt, I want to win the most money, or lose the
least money. I believe that is the definition of max ER play, and I attempt
to play each hand in that fashion. And I also believe that most "serious"
players share this goal. For the hands we play, we wish to win as much as
possible, or lose as little as possible. That is MY goal.

Is it really? Ask yourself this -- if there was a VP machine that was
favorable and would allow you to wager any amount you wanted, then
would you always bet your entire bankroll on each hand? If the answer
is "no" then your goal isn't really to maximize ER.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I agree that MER has earned its rightful place as the "null
hypothesis" in any experiment.

But, it's still gambling. We're still talking about random
independent
trials. This leads to wide variances in the actual results of folks,
most particularly folks who don't play that much. The way it's going
with these games, I keep waiting for a game called "Royal or Nothing"
that pays like 117K coins for a royal (with 5 coins bet of course)and
nothing for everything else. I think that's like 101% ER (I don't
have my winpoker on), but I wouldn't play it. It's not just that I
would have to play a LOT of
hands to get my ER, it's that there is a strong possibility I would
NEVER get to the correct ER, at least not in my life.

That is the extreme example, of course. But my point is that when we
depend on rare events like a royal to survive, these ideas have some
value, so long as you understand the odds involved. I think that so
long as we agree that a) the games are truly random, or random
enough; and b) there is no tomfoolery going on with the games, then
it's ok to bounce around ideas. If those two criteria are not wrong,
then we are truly lost.

After all, MER strategy has been thoroughly
explored, so you must reject it in order to show that there is a

reason to

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bjaygold@... wrote:

explore alternate strategies.

Before I play, I have already determined that the particular
game/platform/denomination is well within my personal ROR tolerance.
Therefore, I can always feel completely comfortable playing MER strategy.
And that is what I do.

If that is what you're comforable with, then use it. I'm not suggesting
otherwise.

According to you, NO ONE has the goal of maximizing ER, since no sane
player would bet his entire net worth on a single bet. Handy, since you
like exploring/explaining alternate strategies, that MER is to be rejected
out of hand. Sounds pretty self-serving to me. After all, MER strategy has
been thoroughly explored, so you must reject it in order to show that
there is a reason to explore alternate strategies. If everyone simply
decided that MER strategy is best for them, you would have nothing of
practical interest to talk about. Theoretical interest, maybe...

Oh my, you're taking this way too personally, and in the process you are
twisting my words quite a bit here, so I'll try to clarify:

1) My post did not question anyone's sanity, nor did it use any sort of
argument that is designed to evoke an emotional response.

2) I didn't say "entire net worth," but merely "bankroll."

3) I don't reject max-ER strategy, either "out of hand" or any other way.
If you like it, then use it. If maximizing ER is TRULY your objective, then
it is the perfect strategy for you to use. I merely offer other strategies to
those who wish to accomplish something other than maximize dollars
returned per hand played.

4) I don't claim that no one has the goal of maximizing ER. The point
of my question is that maximizing ER and betting less than your entire
bankroll (when faced with a favorable opportunity) are logically
inconsistent actions. The fact that you chose to respond by attacking
me suggests that you couldn't come up with a way to reconcile the two.
I disagree with your claim that most "serious" player want to maximize EV,
for that very reason -- maximizing ER is incompatible with even a small
degree of risk aversion, and most players (serious or otherwise) have
at least some aversion to risk. Max-ER strategy is not truly optimal for
such players. Any argument that cannot resolve this dilemma amounts
to rationalization.

5) Declaring alternate strategies "impractical" does not make it so. If
you don't like them, then don't use them. If you have rational arguments
for never departing from max-ER strategy, then I'd love to hear them, but
I'll undoubtedly point out that the math and logic do not support such claims.

6) If it upsets you this much to have your beliefs challenged, then it
might benefit your blood pressure to simply avoid my posts. It seems
clear that I've touched a raw nerve of some sort. I'm guessing that you
may have been trained in the "ER is everything" religion, and that my
message is blasphemy to your ears. Feel free to call me "self serving"
and put forth other forms of emotion appeal if it makes you feel better,
but such emotional appeals are unpersuasive to those look for sound
reasoning to support their positions.

Practical players first assess the risk, then decide if it an acceptable
one to them. Once this process is complete, MER is the strategy I use, and
it is an informed decision. If you can persuade others to adapt other
strategies, great! They will win less, and the good plays might last a bit
longer. So please, carry on!

So what you're saying is that anyone who makes strategy choices that
differ from yours is "impractical" or "uninformed?" Sorry, that dog won't
hunt. When you have friends over for a BBQ, do you get upset if they
want their steaks medium rare, and insist that well-done is the "only"
practical choice for informed dining?

You speak of making informed decisions, but your message was clearly
based on emotion rather than reason. If the only support you have for
your position is a personal attack on me, then I wonder if your position
is really "informed" or just emotionally soothing.

···

On Wednesday 09 August 2006 9:35 am, bjaygold@aol.com wrote:

Brian

===================================

In a message dated 8/9/2006 7:56:27 AM Pacific Standard Time,

jacobs@xmission.com writes:
> For every VP hand I am dealt, I want to win the most money, or lose the
> least money. I believe that is the definition of max ER play, and I
> attempt to play each hand in that fashion. And I also believe that most
> "serious" players share this goal. For the hands we play, we wish to win
> as much as possible, or lose as little as possible. That is MY goal.

Is it really? Ask yourself this -- if there was a VP machine that was
favorable and would allow you to wager any amount you wanted, then
would you always bet your entire bankroll on each hand? If the answer
is "no" then your goal isn't really to maximize ER.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

Things do seem to be getting a little personal here, which is
unfortunate. My view on this is similar to George Carlin's view on
religion...your goal is like a pair of shoes. If you try it on and at
works for you, great. But don't go around nailing your shoes onto
other peoples feet.

I appreciate all the effort that Steve is putting into this, and I can
imagine it is not easy to be constantly swimming upstream. I am still
a strong MEV supporter, but I can see times when another strategy may
be appropriate.

I don't feel that Steve is trying to force his views on anyone. He is
simply making information available to anyone who is interested.
Unfortunately, when you have been immersed in MEV for a long time,
anything else looks like a waste of energy. I personally can't think
of a reason why I might want to try MCR, and view this as simply a
demonstration that there may be goals out there other than MEV. And
this gets me to thinking that, maybe, I might be able to come up with
a different goal that may or may not be consistent with MEV. For me,
I know I have a limited bankroll, and limited time to play. And my
goal right now is to build up my play enough to get reasonable
mailings. This may or may not be compatible with MEV. Once I am
properly established, I will definitely focus on MEV, but if another
approach will help me become established, I am willing to look at that
over the short term. Two possible alternatives might be a max-coin-in
strategy which gives the most play for a given bankroll and length of
play (possibly the same thing as min risk) and a coin-in goal
strategy, which maximizes the probability of reaching a specific
coin-in goal given a particular bankroll and length of play.

So, Steve, keep up the good work, and thank you. Although I have no
use right now for MCR, I can get a lot of use out of the concept of
adjusting strategy for alternate goals. For now it is just out of
curiosity, and I would want to see a substantial change before I
invest the time to memorize a particular strategy, but I have a very
strong curiosity.

- John

> Before I play, I have already determined that the particular
> game/platform/denomination is well within my personal ROR tolerance.
> Therefore, I can always feel completely comfortable playing MER

strategy.

> And that is what I do.

If that is what you're comforable with, then use it. I'm not suggesting
otherwise.

> According to you, NO ONE has the goal of maximizing ER, since no sane
> player would bet his entire net worth on a single bet. Handy,

since you

> like exploring/explaining alternate strategies, that MER is to be

rejected

> out of hand. Sounds pretty self-serving to me. After all, MER

strategy has

> been thoroughly explored, so you must reject it in order to show that
> there is a reason to explore alternate strategies. If everyone simply
> decided that MER strategy is best for them, you would have nothing of
> practical interest to talk about. Theoretical interest, maybe...

Oh my, you're taking this way too personally, and in the process you

are

twisting my words quite a bit here, so I'll try to clarify:

1) My post did not question anyone's sanity, nor did it use any sort of
argument that is designed to evoke an emotional response.

2) I didn't say "entire net worth," but merely "bankroll."

3) I don't reject max-ER strategy, either "out of hand" or any

other way.

If you like it, then use it. If maximizing ER is TRULY your

objective, then

it is the perfect strategy for you to use. I merely offer other

strategies to

those who wish to accomplish something other than maximize dollars
returned per hand played.

4) I don't claim that no one has the goal of maximizing ER. The point
of my question is that maximizing ER and betting less than your entire
bankroll (when faced with a favorable opportunity) are logically
inconsistent actions. The fact that you chose to respond by attacking
me suggests that you couldn't come up with a way to reconcile the two.
I disagree with your claim that most "serious" player want to

maximize EV,

for that very reason -- maximizing ER is incompatible with even a small
degree of risk aversion, and most players (serious or otherwise) have
at least some aversion to risk. Max-ER strategy is not truly

optimal for

such players. Any argument that cannot resolve this dilemma amounts
to rationalization.

5) Declaring alternate strategies "impractical" does not make it

so. If

you don't like them, then don't use them. If you have rational

arguments

for never departing from max-ER strategy, then I'd love to hear

them, but

I'll undoubtedly point out that the math and logic do not support

such claims.

6) If it upsets you this much to have your beliefs challenged, then it
might benefit your blood pressure to simply avoid my posts. It seems
clear that I've touched a raw nerve of some sort. I'm guessing that you
may have been trained in the "ER is everything" religion, and that my
message is blasphemy to your ears. Feel free to call me "self serving"
and put forth other forms of emotion appeal if it makes you feel better,
but such emotional appeals are unpersuasive to those look for sound
reasoning to support their positions.

> Practical players first assess the risk, then decide if it an

acceptable

> one to them. Once this process is complete, MER is the strategy I

use, and

> it is an informed decision. If you can persuade others to adapt other
> strategies, great! They will win less, and the good plays might

last a bit

> longer. So please, carry on!

So what you're saying is that anyone who makes strategy choices that
differ from yours is "impractical" or "uninformed?" Sorry, that dog

won't

hunt. When you have friends over for a BBQ, do you get upset if they
want their steaks medium rare, and insist that well-done is the "only"
practical choice for informed dining?

You speak of making informed decisions, but your message was clearly
based on emotion rather than reason. If the only support you have for
your position is a personal attack on me, then I wonder if your position
is really "informed" or just emotionally soothing.

> Brian
>
> ===================================
>
> In a message dated 8/9/2006 7:56:27 AM Pacific Standard Time,
>
> jacobs@... writes:
> > For every VP hand I am dealt, I want to win the most money, or

lose the

> > least money. I believe that is the definition of max ER play, and I
> > attempt to play each hand in that fashion. And I also believe

that most

> > "serious" players share this goal. For the hands we play, we

wish to win

> > as much as possible, or lose as little as possible. That is MY

goal.

>
> Is it really? Ask yourself this -- if there was a VP machine

that was

> favorable and would allow you to wager any amount you wanted, then
> would you always bet your entire bankroll on each hand? If the

answer

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@...> wrote:

On Wednesday 09 August 2006 9:35 am, bjaygold@... wrote:
> is "no" then your goal isn't really to maximize ER.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

In the examples we've looked at, JOB and FPDW, and depending on your
goals and risk tolerance, it is a consideration FOR SOME PEOPLE. I
pointed out that, for example, if you play about 240K hands on JOB,
your chances of getting double your allotment of royals is over twice
as high using MCR as MER, and a >4% shot isn't too bad, if you have the
stomach for it and are willing to sacrifice .03% ER (I don't happen to,
by the way). But it's NOT THAT BAD of a trade. You could do a LOT
worse. Your game, by the way, will be more volatile. But 240K hands
is NOT a lot, and for many of my friends that is a lifetime's worth,
which is as long term as long term gets. For them, I say go for it.

In FPDW, it appears MCR seeks to decrease volatility, since FPDW is
over 100% when played with MER accuracy. In this case, you are giving
up ER for bankroll size/ROR purposes. Now, I have no idea, but let's
just suppose that Steve could come up with a strategy for FPDW where
the ER is over 100% with NO (natural) royals. By removing this very
uncommon occurance from the calculation, you are extremely likely to
get what you are playing for. Bankroll requirements would decrease
dramatically, one could play a high denom, get more points, more comps,
etc. That would be very useful for someone who is not trying to make
an income out of the game, but wants to be more assured of not losing
much and eat for free.

Of course, that's all just theory and crum (as there is normally a very
narrow denom range for FPDW in the real world and even that may be gone
soon), but I have found this debate has expanded my personal
understanding of the games, which is also good.

  I personally can't think

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "murphyfields" <jkludge@...> wrote:

of a reason why I might want to try MCR, and view this as simply a
demonstration that there may be goals out there other than MEV.

I imagine most people on the list have long since decided that these threads get too complicated math-wise for them and that their best way to handle them is the Delete button. And even most people who can handle the math probably delete most posts now on this subject because it has been discussed many times in the past.

Personally, the latter is what I do. I appreciate Steve's input on this subject - and I even understand the basics theoretically!!!!!! And I do feel that a study of this is valuable for a few people - but only for those who have enough math background to understand it thoroughly. And I am guessing that most of the people on this list who fit that description may study this for theoretical pleasure and haven't found very many - if any - practical circumstances for them personally. They use max-ER because that fits their goals.

Most - many? - experienced and well-studied players will use "alternate" strategies for progressives, but most of them are really using max-EV for the particular schedule that includes the various payouts for the rising jackpot. Skilled progressive players/teams WILL often use some alternate strategies because they have different money-management goals.

Skilled VP tournament players must always use alternate strategies but - correct me if I'm wrong here - Steve's ideas can't readily be used here because every tournament is different and strategies must be changed during the actual playing session. There are so many variables in a tournament that there is no math formula that would cover them all. There have been some valuable hints given on this list - and I give more in "Frugal Video Poker - but it is the most seat-of-the-pants video poker I play.

The only "danger" I see in Steve's discussion of alternate strategies is that so many VP players are really under-bankrolled and are looking for some "magic bullet" to help them win more or lose less RIGHT NOW. They might grasp at Steve's ideas without seeing the total picture of what he is saying, although he repeats over and over that you can't give up some risk without giving up some ER. I'm afraid that the beginning or inexperienced player will take just a little bit of Steve's information and think they have found a way to win more. This is what has happened to many who have been attracted to Rob Singer's ideas. We never hear from the hundreds - maybe thousands - who have tried his methods and sooner or later gone broke.

For beginning and inexperienced players the best study plan is to concentrate on choosing one core game - often 9/6 Job because of its lower volatility and more intuitive strategy - and learning it well, preferably using software. Then they need to learn scouting skills and study how to maximize slot club benefits, comps, and promotions. That will be enough for most people to tackle for the first period of their VP study. Then they can add new games and gain more practical experience. Only then - if ever - would they be ready to consider "alternate" strategies. Most people have their hands full adjusting to changing casino conditions.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

For beginning and inexperienced players the best study plan is to
concentrate on choosing one core game - often 9/6 Job because of

its lower

volatility and more intuitive strategy - and learning it well,

preferably

using software. Then they need to learn scouting skills and study

how to

maximize slot club benefits, comps, and promotions. That will be

enough for

most people to tackle for the first period of their VP study. Then

they can

add new games and gain more practical experience. Only then - if

ever -

would they be ready to consider "alternate" strategies. Most

people have

their hands full adjusting to changing casino conditions.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

I agree with your observations for beginning players ... except, I'm
wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn. The NO
table suggests otherwise. It identifies several other games with
less volatility and they are widely available, plus we all agree it's
best not to play any game until the strategy is practiced. So I'm
wondering if the long standing recommendation to begin with 9/6JB
still holds?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:

<<I agree with your observations for beginning players ... except, I'm
wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn. The NO
table suggests otherwise. It identifies several other games with
less volatility and they are widely available>>

Such as???

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

<<I agree with your observations for beginning players ... except,

I'm

wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn. The NO
table suggests otherwise. It identifies several other games with
less volatility and they are widely available>>

Such as???
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

See posting #58848 on March 16th. Unfortunately the library here in
Idaho does not have excel installed, so I can't access the NO table
like I do at home in LV. But the post above illustrates my point
about 9/6. Sure, It's relatively intuitive but cashback has to
exceed .4% to reach the break even point. Perhaps these games are not
as "widely available" as I stated.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:

I would think FPDW would be the obvious choice, and to me anyway, the
strategy is simpler than JOB and less subject to play errors, but it's
not widely available outside of Vegas. AA shows up in the midwest, but
it's not at all a simply strategy. The most common games are probably
9/6JOB, 8/5Bonus and 9/6DDB, which have similar strategies, but the
negative expectation requires a generous bonus to overcome.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@...> wrote:

— In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@> wrote:
>
> <<I agree with your observations for beginning players … except,
I'm
> wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn. The NO
> table suggests otherwise. It identifies several other games with
> less volatility and they are widely available>>
>
> Such as???
> ________________________________________
> Jean $¢ott
> "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
> orders for this new book now taken at
> http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See posting #58848 on March 16th. Unfortunately the library here in
Idaho does not have excel installed, so I can't access the NO table
like I do at home in LV. But the post above illustrates my point
about 9/6. Sure, It's relatively intuitive but cashback has to
exceed .4% to reach the break even point. Perhaps these games are not
as "widely available" as I stated.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

I would think FPDW would be the obvious choice, and to me anyway, the
strategy is simpler than JOB and less subject to play errors, but it's
not widely available outside of Vegas. AA shows up in the midwest, but
it's not at all a simply strategy. The most common games are probably
9/6JOB, 8/5Bonus and 9/6DDB, which have similar strategies, but the
negative expectation requires a generous bonus to overcome.

Yes, I would agree. Maybe the recomendation should be to look for FPDW
first, then NSUD, then AA and lastly 9/6JB. (Wish I could check the NO
table before making this list ... I may not have the right order). In
fact, I'd suggest the NO table be the starting point for a newbie
because it helps them factor both the CB and ER, in deciding the first
game to learn using Frugal VP. Getting started with the best game at
the casino a newbie visits, is really important IMHO.

<<I agree with your observations for beginning players ... except,
I'm
wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn.>>

I don't think you can beat 9/6 JoB on which to LEARN. Certainly more widely available across the U.S than any other game and most intuitive strategy.

However, after someone has a little experience on JoB, then of course they may want to switch to a higher EV game, whichever is available where they play. However, many players outside of Vegas would consider themselves lucky to find anything better than 9/6 JoB. And many people are finding that scrambling for generous bounce-back, promotions, and extras like tournaments and drawings can make JoB a over-100% play.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

<<I agree with your observations for beginning players ... except,
I'm
wondering if 9/6JB is still the best core game to learn.>>

I don't think you can beat 9/6 JoB on which to LEARN. Certainly

more widely

available across the U.S than any other game and most intuitive

strategy.

However, after someone has a little experience on JoB, then of

course they

may want to switch to a higher EV game, whichever is available

where they

play. However, many players outside of Vegas would consider

themselves

lucky to find anything better than 9/6 JoB. And many people are

finding

that scrambling for generous bounce-back, promotions, and extras

like

tournaments and drawings can make JoB a over-100% play.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott
"FRUGAL VIDEO POKER" - Pre-pub
orders for this new book now taken at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

Certainly it's true that 9/6JB is the most widely available game
thoughout the nation. But I would "qualify" such a recommendation by
noting many better games are available, especially for beginners
planning a trip to LV. The NO table lists 15 better games at a .5%
CB and 9/6JB requires 101,000,000 games to achieve an 80% probability
of breaking even ... pretty poor odds (although that number drops
rapidly as CB increases).

This reason I brought this up was my own surprise at the low ranking
of 9/6JB in the NO table unless CB is well over .5%.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote: