6a. When Do You Say "Enough"?
Date: Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:08 pm ((PST))
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So, I'm interested in the limit you set on declines after you are
ahead. I know it is an individual decision. For me, I am willing to
sacrifice about one-third of my profit with the chance of getting
farther ahead. But, when that is gone, I hit the cash out button
without thinking. I have learned from experience that any game can
take it all back. The memory of that pain is always in the back of
my mind.
Great question - I used to have this situation at both blackjack, video poker and poker - I would report to my wife that I was up XX, but then lost some back and quit only YY ahead (or ZZ behind). Her response (she's a non-player) was always, "why didn't you quit when you were XX ahead?". So now that's what I do.
While the above was intended to be humorous, I do know people who can go on a gambling trip and win on day one and stop playing and still enjoy their trip - that's usually not me. I also know people who can win on day one and lose it all back and more before day one is over, and keep on playing 16 hours a day for the rest of their trip and not think twice about it -- that's usually not me either.
Seriously, the criteria for quitting SHOULD be - quit anytime there is reason to expect that your time at the machine (or other game) is no longer profitable. In blackjack and video poker, as well as live poker, for me, that has always been when I'm too tired and either expect to start making mistakes, or actually catch myself making them. In blackjack, also add "quit now" when there is any hint that you are drawing too much attention that might lead to barring; I've never had that situation with VP, but others apparently have, and may wish to add this point as well. Finally, in poker, I also quit when the game changes - the opponents either are different people who seem tougher to beat, or they are the same, but seem to be catching on to my plays and I'm no longer able to outplay them.
That's what the criteria for quitting SHOULD be -- but in practice, it's just a matter of how I feel that night. If I hit an early jackpot, I would not likely quit playing for the rest of a four-day trip, and would be at high risk of losing it all back, and more, but I might choose to do so because I didn't come to sit and do nothing. If I've been up and down and up again (whether the end point comes at "up" or at "down"), and I'm no longer having fun, I quit - if I'm thinking right -- and if I don't, and lose, I'm never very happy with what happens -- but of course, if I don't quit, and I win, I can walk away pleased that I didn't quit when it seemed like I should, and talking about how I almost missed my comeback, but fortunately was a sick puppy and kept on playing.
I AM disciplined enough not to play at low paytables, except for very short periods of time while I wait for a seat at a poker game, for example, or sometimes at lower-than-usual denominations, just to play something, when nothing else I'm playing (ie, other games) is fun anymore.
I will not play my normal-level denomination (or higher) for long periods on short-pays "just for fun" -- while it's nice to "get lucky" when you hit something on such a machine during a short sit-down, when you play such a machine for a long time and get what you deserved, ie a big loss, you just have lower self-esteem for doing something stupid -- or at least I do.
I do have some money management personal comfort zones -- I try to take so much money on my trip that I'm never playing with scared money, and I try REAL hard not to get deep into the "extra" money that is my "comfort zone". If I go on a trip with a mental "maximum loss" and get 1/nth of that loss for an n-day trip on the first day, I usually quit for that day -- but if my bankroll goes up on the first day, I may apply that toward my loss tolerance on day two, and so on.
And it varies from trip to trip and depends on many factors, mostly my frame of mind. There's no way to predict whether the next hour, or the next day, will result in a win or loss, so there's no magic correct way to manage this situation -- all you can do is know whether you have a positive or a negative expected return on more play, and that can influence whether you think that more play is a good or bad idea.
--BG
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