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Whcih denomination would you choose?

#1

Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will be
played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB. However,
there are many denominations and some play choices for this game.
One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25, $1,
$2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 - 3 /5 play
machine.
  I guess the reason I am asking this question is because it is a
less than 100% game. I know what the long term expectation would be
and I know that some of you can figure the expected cost per hour
playing this game. However, do some of you have any personal
experience or short term expectation as to which option might leave
have the best chance of leaving you on the right side of the random
curve?
  It would be all random luck, but would you rather play $125 a hand,
or one of the lower 5 coin options. At $1.25 a hand t would take
most of a day to play $20,000 through a machine. The 50 play game
would take would take about one tenth as long.. The $125 a hand
machine would play $20,000 in about 15 minutes.
  I guess I am wondering, knowing nobody can answer this for sure, if
there would be a preference for about how many hands one would choose
to play in hopes of just having some random luck. Certainly 16,000
hands at $1.25 per hand gives you many more chances for a royal than
only 160 hands at $125. However, maybe too many hands is not good at
a negative game. Maybe just gambling on a few lucky hands such as a
couple of four of a kind or full houses (or maybe a straight flush)
would be preferred.
  Please limit the answer to 9/6 JoB and a $20,000 coin in
expectation. My uneducated guess would be to play enough hands to
have some chance for a few good hands. I would vote for using the $1
3/5 play machine. My second guess would be the $2 ($10 per hand)
gamble. I do not know why these might be the best choices and that
is why I am asking for opinions!

Thanks,
Bob

#2

futrend wrote:

  Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will be
played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB.
However, there are many denominations and some play choices for this
game.
One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25,
$1, $2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 - 3 /5
play machine.
  I guess the reason I am asking this question is because it is a
less than 100% game. I know what the long term expectation would be
and I know that some of you can figure the expected cost per hour
playing this game. However, do some of you have any personal
experience or short term expectation as to which option might leave
have the best chance of leaving you on the right side of the random
curve?
  It would be all random luck, but would you rather play $125 a
hand, or one of the lower 5 coin options. At $1.25 a hand t would
take most of a day to play $20,000 through a machine. The 50 play
game would take would take about one tenth as long.. The $125 a
hand machine would play $20,000 in about 15 minutes.

Bob,

You've omitted the key piece of info that would be of greatest
assistance in making a recommendation: How much are you prepared to
lose, under circumstances that represent the worst 5% likely outcomes
(1 out of 20 trials), and just how comfortable are you with that loss.

The higher denomination you play and the greater the amount of each
play, the greater your loss risk. Nobody with half a brain worries
about the upside here ... if luck happens, it happens. The goal is to
make it through your $20K targeted coin-in without losing an arm and a
leg.

There's little doubt that $.25 play presents the least risk. However,
that's likely to take you 20-25 hours, or more. If the $20K is to be
played through in a single gaming day (such as would be the case if
you were trying to earn a Harrah's Diamond card through their "diamond
in a day" offer), then quarter play is out.

The next option which will present the least risk is 50-play nickels.
But I'd suggest you better prepare yourself for a downside of
$1000-$1400.

For single line $1 play, you need to gird yourself for a $1500-$2000
loss (mind you, this is not the very worst case play, just the worst
"likely" play). I recently extended my Harrah's Diamond with $1 Jacks
and lost $1300 on my play (most of it in the last $8000 of coin in).

$2 play and $1-3 play could both potentially push you into a $2000+
loss. Mind you, the pain will be over quickly ;).

By the way, keep in mind that it takes longer to put coin through with
a multiplay game. It takes considerable time to roll out those
50-play hands and it may be possible to get no more than 350 hands in
max, whereas on a fast machine, you can often play 1000 hands/hr. or more.

- Harry

#3

I made the post as if I was willing to put $20,000 through a 9/6
machine. I realize it is gambling and on a negative long term
machine. No, I do not expect to lose $20,000, but I guess, to answer
the question, I would need to be willing to accept the results of
putting that much money through a 9/6 JoB game. Knowing there is no
definitive answer and obviouly it is a gamble, it was basically a
question of which denomination would others play if that was what
they were willing to do --- put $20,000 through a 9/6 machine and
accept the results.

Thanks for all opinions,
Bob

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

futrend wrote:
> Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will

be

> played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB.
> However, there are many denominations and some play choices for

this

> game.
> One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25,
> $1, $2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 -

3 /5

> play machine.
> I guess the reason I am asking this question is because it is a
> less than 100% game. I know what the long term expectation would

be

> and I know that some of you can figure the expected cost per hour
> playing this game. However, do some of you have any personal
> experience or short term expectation as to which option might

leave

> have the best chance of leaving you on the right side of the

random

> curve?
> It would be all random luck, but would you rather play $125 a
> hand, or one of the lower 5 coin options. At $1.25 a hand t

would

> take most of a day to play $20,000 through a machine. The 50

play

> game would take would take about one tenth as long.. The $125 a
> hand machine would play $20,000 in about 15 minutes.

Bob,

You've omitted the key piece of info that would be of greatest
assistance in making a recommendation: How much are you prepared to
lose, under circumstances that represent the worst 5% likely

outcomes

(1 out of 20 trials), and just how comfortable are you with that

loss.

The higher denomination you play and the greater the amount of each
play, the greater your loss risk. Nobody with half a brain worries
about the upside here ... if luck happens, it happens. The goal is

to

make it through your $20K targeted coin-in without losing an arm

and a

leg.

There's little doubt that $.25 play presents the least risk.

However,

that's likely to take you 20-25 hours, or more. If the $20K is to

be

played through in a single gaming day (such as would be the case if
you were trying to earn a Harrah's Diamond card through

their "diamond

in a day" offer), then quarter play is out.

The next option which will present the least risk is 50-play

nickels.

But I'd suggest you better prepare yourself for a downside of
$1000-$1400.

For single line $1 play, you need to gird yourself for a $1500-$2000
loss (mind you, this is not the very worst case play, just the worst
"likely" play). I recently extended my Harrah's Diamond with $1

Jacks

and lost $1300 on my play (most of it in the last $8000 of coin in).

$2 play and $1-3 play could both potentially push you into a $2000+
loss. Mind you, the pain will be over quickly ;).

By the way, keep in mind that it takes longer to put coin through

with

a multiplay game. It takes considerable time to roll out those
50-play hands and it may be possible to get no more than 350 hands

in

max, whereas on a fast machine, you can often play 1000 hands/hr.

or more.

···

- Harry

#4

Thanks Harry, this was the kind of information I had hoped to
receive. The question is a little related to the "Diamond in a Day"
idea. However, at this time that decision has not been made, but it
caused the question to enter my mind. I just looked at the inventory
at Harrah's Laughlin and saw the full play options. They do have a
few $1 and $2 NSUD. I also believe there was one 10/7 DB game. I
like to play NSUD with its higher EV, but it also has a higher
variance.
  I wanted to keep the question more focused on which denomination
one would choose if given the choice. I was thinking the number of
hands played might be significant in the choice. I would expect the
type of loss numbers you shared, but I was also wondering, since it
is a negative game, if the number of hands played might be
significant in choices. Would anyone gamble on some short term luck
rather that playing more longer term? I would think the more hands
one plays the most likely would be negative results (the longer term
results), but maybe this is offset by a greater chance for a royal.
Would anyone ever entertain the thought of plaing only 160 hands
($125) and take that gamble? Or, would most feel more comfortable
with a single hand amount somewhere between $125 and $5.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

futrend wrote:
> Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will

be

> played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB.
> However, there are many denominations and some play choices for

this

> game.
> One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25,
> $1, $2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 -

3 /5

> play machine.
> I guess the reason I am asking this question is because it is a
> less than 100% game. I know what the long term expectation would

be

> and I know that some of you can figure the expected cost per hour
> playing this game. However, do some of you have any personal
> experience or short term expectation as to which option might

leave

> have the best chance of leaving you on the right side of the

random

> curve?
> It would be all random luck, but would you rather play $125 a
> hand, or one of the lower 5 coin options. At $1.25 a hand t

would

> take most of a day to play $20,000 through a machine. The 50

play

> game would take would take about one tenth as long.. The $125 a
> hand machine would play $20,000 in about 15 minutes.

Bob,

You've omitted the key piece of info that would be of greatest
assistance in making a recommendation: How much are you prepared to
lose, under circumstances that represent the worst 5% likely

outcomes

(1 out of 20 trials), and just how comfortable are you with that

loss.

The higher denomination you play and the greater the amount of each
play, the greater your loss risk. Nobody with half a brain worries
about the upside here ... if luck happens, it happens. The goal is

to

make it through your $20K targeted coin-in without losing an arm

and a

leg.

There's little doubt that $.25 play presents the least risk.

However,

that's likely to take you 20-25 hours, or more. If the $20K is to

be

played through in a single gaming day (such as would be the case if
you were trying to earn a Harrah's Diamond card through

their "diamond

in a day" offer), then quarter play is out.

The next option which will present the least risk is 50-play

nickels.

But I'd suggest you better prepare yourself for a downside of
$1000-$1400.

For single line $1 play, you need to gird yourself for a $1500-$2000
loss (mind you, this is not the very worst case play, just the worst
"likely" play). I recently extended my Harrah's Diamond with $1

Jacks

and lost $1300 on my play (most of it in the last $8000 of coin in).

$2 play and $1-3 play could both potentially push you into a $2000+
loss. Mind you, the pain will be over quickly ;).

By the way, keep in mind that it takes longer to put coin through

with

a multiplay game. It takes considerable time to roll out those
50-play hands and it may be possible to get no more than 350 hands

in

max, whereas on a fast machine, you can often play 1000 hands/hr.

or more.

···

- Harry

#5

idea. However, at this time that decision has not been made, but it
caused the question to enter my mind. I just looked at the inventory
at Harrah's Laughlin and saw the full play options. They do have a
few $1 and $2 NSUD. I also believe there was one 10/7 DB game.

There are MANY 10/7DB in varying denoms. I did Diamond-in-a-Day at
Harrah's Laughlin on the $1DB. It took me 5 hours, as I recall, and
was brutal. I spent near $1000 before I saw a FH and $1300 before my
first 4oak. Still, I love playing DB and have (mostly) accepted the
swings. Would I do it again? You bet. They also have FPDB in the
folllowing denoms: 25c, 50c, $1, $2, $5, $10.

Good luck to you!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:

  Thanks Harry, this was the kind of information I had hoped to
receive. The question is a little related to the "Diamond in a Day"

#6

Make sure you are adequately session bankrolled. I was playing $ 9/6
JOB for my diamond because of its low volatility. I only had $2500
with me and was down $1700 and not even half way there. A brutal
session. Fortunately it turned (royal).

I did Diamond-in-a-Day at

···

Harrah's Laughlin on the $1DB. It took me 5 hours, as I recall, and
was brutal. I spent near $1000 before I saw a FH and $1300 before my
first 4oak. Still, I love playing DB and have (mostly) accepted the
swings.

#7

I'd go for the 5 cent 50 play and I would probably play 25 hands at a time. This way you are turning over $6.25 per play enabling you to hit your 20k in a reasonable
days play. The large amount of hands played should keep the swings more reasonable and you would only hit a W2G if you got a dealt in Royal.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: futrend
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Thursday, July 14, 2005 4:06 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Whcih denomination would you choose?

    Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will be
  played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB. However,
  there are many denominations and some play choices for this game.
  One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25, $1,
  $2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 - 3 /5 play
  machine.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

I second the recommendation of playing 25 hands on 5c multiplay. You
should expect to put $20K through the machine in about 6 hours, for a
total of about 80000 hands.

The standard deviation for such a play is $577 if I'm not mistaken.
You should expect to lose about $100 on average, and under a
statistics model based strictly on SD you have about a 4% chance of
losing $1100 or more (and a 4% chance of winning $900 or more).
Assuming that you play perfectly or very close to it.

JBQ

···

On 7/15/05, Albert Pearson <a-p@sympatico.ca> wrote:

I'd go for the 5 cent 50 play and I would probably play 25 hands at a time. This way you are turning over $6.25 per play enabling you to hit your 20k in a reasonable
days play. The large amount of hands played should keep the swings more reasonable and you would only hit a W2G if you got a dealt in Royal.

Regards
A.P.
  ----- Original Message -----
  From: futrend
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Thursday, July 14, 2005 4:06 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Whcih denomination would you choose?

    Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will be
  played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB. However,
  there are many denominations and some play choices for this game.
  One is a $.05 50 play machine and the other options are for $.25, $1,
  $2, $5, $10 and $25 machines single line and a $1 or $2 - 3 /5 play
  machine.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#9

I agree with your conclusions, Albert. I think your reasons for
selecting 25 play .05 are well thought out and sound. I think that,
even allowing for 25 hands to pop up, you could probably do $20,000
coin-in in 4-5 hours, if you are a reasonably fast player. Anyway,
that would be my selection as well.

Babe

P.S. Being slightly O/C, I just HAD to correct the spelling in the
subject title. (-:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:
I'd go for the 5 cent 50 play and I would probably play 25 hands at
a time. This way you are turning over $6.25 per play enabling you
to hit your 20k in a reasonable days play. The large amount of hands
played should keep the swings more reasonable and you would only hit
a W2G if you got a dealt in Royal.

Regards
A.P.
-----------------------------------------------
  ----- Original Message -----
From: futrend

Subject: Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in
will be played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6
JoB. However, there are many denominations and some play choices
for this game.............. One is a $.05 50 play
machine................

#10

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

futrend wrote:
> Which denomination game would you choose? $20,000 coin in will

be

> played. The problem is the best game available is 9/6 JoB.
> However, there are many denominations and some play choices for

this

···

> game.
> One is a $.05 50 play machine

****************************************************
THATS THE 1 TO play , less chance of risk of ruin ie: less chance of
goin broke, if a .01 or .02 100 play is avalibile even better

> By the way, keep in mind that it takes longer to put coin through

with

a multiplay game. It takes considerable time to roll out those
50-play hands and it may be possible to get no more than 350 hands

in

max, whereas on a fast machine, you can often play 1000 hands/hr.

or more.

- Harry

with "turbo" turn on , iwas gettin 650-700 hands on the 50 plays
but even at 350 hands per hour thats $4375 per hour / at 500 its $6250
you can run 20k thru in 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 hours at 12.50 a hand
(hope the math is right :wink: )

M J

#11

I only saw one 10/7 DB and was surprised when you said MANY. What
do you mean in your last sentence when you wrote They ALSO have FPDB
in the following ---"? Does the this sentence also refer to the the
same game as "MANY 10/7DB" stated in your first sentence? The
word "also" is throwing me off. I guess I did not look for 10/7 DB
hard enough. I think the higher variance just does not do it for me.
I might need to grow into that!
  Still, I was more interested in how one might approach various
denominations if they were going to play about $20,000 in one day and
the JoB has choices up to $25. Just was wondering if certain
denominations might be more preferable.
  I did think of one factor that might matter. At a $10 or higher
game a 4 of a kind in JoB would generate a W2. In DB that would be a
$5 game. Would W2 generation be a factor in a decision. And, I guess
it was good you were only playing a $1 verion. With a $2 version you
might not have had any 4oak. What was the coin in at your $1300 loss
point? This would have been a $2600 deficit at a $2 game ---right?

Thanks
Bob

> Thanks Harry, this was the kind of information I had hoped to
> receive. The question is a little related to the "Diamond in a

Day"

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "correna2" <correna2@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:
idea. However, at this time that decision has not been made, but it
caused the question to enter my mind. I just looked at the inventory
at Harrah's Laughlin and saw the full play options. They do have a
few $1 and $2 NSUD. I also believe there was one 10/7 DB game.

There are MANY 10/7DB in varying denoms. I did Diamond-in-a-Day at
Harrah's Laughlin on the $1DB. It took me 5 hours, as I recall, and
was brutal. I spent near $1000 before I saw a FH and $1300 before my
first 4oak. Still, I love playing DB and have (mostly) accepted the
swings. Would I do it again? You bet. They also have FPDB in the
folllowing denoms: 25c, 50c, $1, $2, $5, $10.

Good luck to you!

#12

What do you mean in your last sentence when you wrote They ALSO have
FPDB in the following ---"? Does the this sentence also refer to
the the same game as "MANY 10/7DB" stated in your first sentence?
The word "also" is throwing me off. I guess I did not look for 10/7
DB hard enough. I think the higher variance just does not do it for
me.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:

  I only saw one 10/7 DB and was surprised when you said MANY.

******************

Sorry about that Bob... I was writing that at about 4am and it made
perfect sense to me at the time : )

The "also" was referring to the same machines; I was just trying to
make the point that they come in varying denoms. Many is a relative
term - for Harrah's there are "many." I don't know exactly
how "many," but suffice to say that I have never had any trouble
getting on any denom on any day. In fact, I found it ironic that
the last time I was there... the only machines that WERE available
in a loooong rack of quarter machines were the full pay machines.
ALL short-pay were full. Go figure.

The variance is high and can be a bankroll killer, but I love the
challenge of the game and practice it frequently. On the day I lost
$1300 before myfirst 4oak, I was only 2/3s of the way to my goal of
Diamond-in-a-Day. I was dumb tho... I thought you needed 200
points, not the 1800. Coulda quit sooner. Oh well... live and
learn.

Worst session in my vp history was on DB. Played $1 FPDB for 13
hours straight... not one 4oak. Took me a looong time to recover
mentally and financially from that one.

Correna Correna

#13

From: "futrend" <futrend@yahoo.com>

  I only saw one 10/7 DB and was surprised when you said MANY.

I wa recently at Harrah's Laughlin, and had no trouble finding $1 10/7 DB at various places, including machines in the non-smoking area that had $1/$2 10/7 DB.

I didn't look for denominations outside that range (in general the $.25 pay tables were worse than the $1 pay tables on the multi denom machines), but there certainly could have been.

Saying that there were many 10/7 DB IMO was not an exaggeration.

···

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