vpFREE2 Forums

What would it take?

#1

I've noticed that more and more frequently when playing multiplay games and
getting dealt 3 to a quad, I never get the fourth one on any lines,
especially with Aces. I was just in Laughlin playing 10-play and over and over
and over, no 4th to the quad. I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
5-play also often shows the same lack of quads.

So what if we all just record whenever you get 3 to a quad, do you or don't
you get a 4th - single play, 3, 5, and 10 play. It should be pretty easy
to record this, since it doesn't happen all that frequently, so won't slow
normal play by recording, and pretty quickly we can figure out if we are
getting "true" or "scewed" results.

My friends and I, and other gamblers I've met, all seem to be noticing that
quads just don't come up as frequently as they used to. While you may
want to poo poo our opinions, saying our total number of hands isn't enough to
tell if this is random bad luck or not, I do play a large number of hands,
probably at least 800 hands an hour, and often for 4-8 hours of play at 5
play machines, so pretty soon I've played 10s of thousands of hands.

What do you think about this?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Misscraps wrote,
"I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
5-play also often shows the same lack of quads."

I am not Frank and I'm sure he will have a solid reply to you - but whenever I see this happening I try to remind myself that:
- each hand is separate whether it is a single line game, triple play, five play, ten play etc. You just have more "chances" with more hands
- you already have three of the card, so you have a 47-1 chance that you will get the other one on each hand.
- when I think about it being 47-1 it doesn't seem so odd, especially in the short term, that I don't get the 4th card as much as I would like.
- I also think that we tend to forget the times when we get dealt four of a kind, or draw it when holding one Ace, or two 3's, etc. Those get overshadowed by the frustration of seeing three of them in front of you - all glowing on ten hands, it seems like it *has* to happen. The key word being "seems".

Recently I watched two different players hold four to the Royal playing ten hands. Most exciting was the gentleman who was playing a $5 limit....neither of them got the 4th card, even with ten chances. Oh well, so it goes.

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6984 (20120320) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

When you draw two to trips, there are 47*46/2=1081 possible two card draws.

Of these 1081 possible draws, 46 make quads. So the chance of making quads
when drawing to trips is 46/1081 = 4.26%

The chance of drawing zero quads to trips on a ten play machine, therefore,
is 0.9574^10 = 64.7%

So when you draw to trips on a ten play machine, you're about a 2-to-1 dog
to catch one or more quads. Therefore, missing ten times in a row is a
little more than a 1% shot.

Ed

···

On Tue, Mar 20, 2012 at 1:05 PM, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>wrote:

**

Misscraps wrote,

"I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
5-play also often shows the same lack of quads."

I am not Frank and I'm sure he will have a solid reply to you - but
whenever I see this happening I try to remind myself that:
- each hand is separate whether it is a single line game, triple play,
five play, ten play etc. You just have more "chances" with more hands
- you already have three of the card, so you have a 47-1 chance that you
will get the other one on each hand.
- when I think about it being 47-1 it doesn't seem so odd, especially in
the short term, that I don't get the 4th card as much as I would like.
- I also think that we tend to forget the times when we get dealt four of
a kind, or draw it when holding one Ace, or two 3's, etc. Those get
overshadowed by the frustration of seeing three of them in front of you -
all glowing on ten hands, it seems like it *has* to happen. The key word
being "seems".

Recently I watched two different players hold four to the Royal playing
ten hands. Most exciting was the gentleman who was playing a $5
limit....neither of them got the 4th card, even with ten chances. Oh well,
so it goes.

Valerie

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus
signature database 6984 (20120320) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Thanks Ed. I understood your explanation!!
james thompson
former hrh casino monitor

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: ed.miller@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2012 13:48:26 -0700
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] What would it take?

When you draw two to trips, there are 47*46/2=1081 possible two card draws.

Of these 1081 possible draws, 46 make quads. So the chance of making quads
when drawing to trips is 46/1081 = 4.26%

The chance of drawing zero quads to trips on a ten play machine, therefore,
is 0.9574^10 = 64.7%

So when you draw to trips on a ten play machine, you're about a 2-to-1 dog
to catch one or more quads. Therefore, missing ten times in a row is a
little more than a 1% shot.

Ed

> **
>
>
> Misscraps wrote,
>
> "I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
> least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
> 3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
> to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
> 5-play also often shows the same lack of quads."
>
> I am not Frank and I'm sure he will have a solid reply to you - but
> whenever I see this happening I try to remind myself that:
> - each hand is separate whether it is a single line game, triple play,
> five play, ten play etc. You just have more "chances" with more hands
> - you already have three of the card, so you have a 47-1 chance that you
> will get the other one on each hand.
> - when I think about it being 47-1 it doesn't seem so odd, especially in
> the short term, that I don't get the 4th card as much as I would like.
> - I also think that we tend to forget the times when we get dealt four of
> a kind, or draw it when holding one Ace, or two 3's, etc. Those get
> overshadowed by the frustration of seeing three of them in front of you -
> all glowing on ten hands, it seems like it *has* to happen. The key word
> being "seems".
>
> Recently I watched two different players hold four to the Royal playing
> ten hands. Most exciting was the gentleman who was playing a $5
> limit....neither of them got the 4th card, even with ten chances. Oh well,
> so it goes.
>
> Valerie
>
> __________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus
> signature database 6984 (20120320) __________
>
> The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.
>
> http://www.eset.com
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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···

On Tue, Mar 20, 2012 at 1:05 PM, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>wrote: