vpFREE2 Forums

What killed the Tuscany golden goose

#1

King Canute couldn't stop the tide, and it is just as impossible to form a
VP experts' cartel that would play to maximize the aggregate take of the
good players.

(Side note: King Canute *knew* he couldn't stop the tide; he was
demonstrating that to his subjects, who believed he could, to break them of
their tendency to rely on King-commanded miracles instead of taking
necessary actions. See http://viking.no/e/people/e-knud.htm , among others.)

For VP players, those of us who, like mkl54321 and myself, voluntarily
limited our own play, simply handed away expectation to those who didn't.

As consumers, we are happy with the effects of competition; the gas stations
don't all get together and raise their prices, even though they'd all make
more money if they could get away with it.

When we're the ones who have to compete, we lament the "waste" involved.

So, while I agree with mkl12345 that everybody would have done better if
each individual player had been less greedy, I don't blame them for their
actions; I can't imagine what could have prompted events to go other than
they did.

A good book for those interested in this and related situations is Axelrod's
_The Evolution of Cooperation_ .

Incidentally, I don't know how mkl12345 figured his hourly expectation
numbers. On the slowed-down slightly-positive machines, each bonus took 90
minutes on average to earn and another 15 minutes or so to collect, so the
expectation was about 60-70 coins per hour. The best negative machines
played faster, but had an expected loss of around 40 coins per hour; the net
hourly earn rate was similar or a bit higher, but with much more risk.

···

On Sunday, mkl54321 <mkl54321@yahoo.com> wrote:

Now, do you suppose if the assembled local "pros" had acted with a
modicum of subtlety and grace, rather than attacking this promo like
a starving lion attacking a gazelle, that this promo MIGHT have
lasted longer than it did? Consider: even at the .25 level this
promo was worth $40/hour!! Was this enough for all the slime who
crawled out from under their respective rocks and oozed into the
Tuscany that morning? NOOOOOOO. They wanted $160, or $320 an hour.

--
Randy Hudson <ime@panix.com>

#2

> a starving lion attacking a gazelle, that this promo MIGHT have
> lasted longer than it did? Consider: even at the .25 level this
> promo was worth $40/hour!! Was this enough for all the slime who
> crawled out from under their respective rocks and oozed into the
> Tuscany that morning? NOOOOOOO. They wanted $160, or $320 an
> hour.

$40/hr a quarters is staggering. If you don't burn it down, someone
else will. Like anything else, advantage play is frequently a
Darwinian proposition. Keep that in mind next time you find
something juicy.

I would have passed on the play myself. Did you calculate in your EV
assessment what time you would have had to show up to get a seat on
one of the preferred games? Sources tell me the jockeying for
position began at 0330, or roughly 6.5 hours before the promo
started.

#3

Hi. I believe the original writer said there were a couple dozen people
monopolizing the machines. I wonder if he could be more specific. I've
always been curious as to the number of "expert" players circulating in
Las Vegas. I have assumed that there were a hundred or so. I know all
the experts didn't show up for the feeding frenzy, but If only twenty
five or thirty showed up maybe I am over-estimating their numbers. Just
curious. Thanks. D. Mckenna

paladin415x wrote:

> > a starving lion attacking a gazelle, that this promo MIGHT have
> > lasted longer than it did? Consider: even at the .25 level this
> > promo was worth $40/hour!! Was this enough for all the slime who
> > crawled out from under their respective rocks and oozed into the
> > Tuscany that morning? NOOOOOOO. They wanted $160, or $320 an
> > hour.

$40/hr a quarters is staggering. If you don't burn it down, someone
else will. Like anything else, advantage play is frequently a
Darwinian proposition. Keep that in mind next time you find
something juicy.

I would have passed on the play myself. Did you calculate in your EV
assessment what time you would have had to show up to get a seat on
one of the preferred games? Sources tell me the jockeying for
position began at 0330, or roughly 6.5 hours before the promo
started.

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#4

A few of the "lowerlifes" came before 10:AM, played multiline machines
and got a 4 to the royal and then waited until 10:am to claim them.
This is probably why they were subsequently excluded.
I saw about 25 individuals playing at 2 $1 machines. They were the
greedy ones.
Many of the more temporate, played only 1.

···

On Tue, 20 May 2003 09:57:21 -0400, you wrote:

Hi. I believe the original writer said there were a couple dozen people
monopolizing the machines. I wonder if he could be more specific. I've
always been curious as to the number of "expert" players circulating in
Las Vegas. I have assumed that there were a hundred or so. I know all
the experts didn't show up for the feeding frenzy, but If only twenty
five or thirty showed up maybe I am over-estimating their numbers. Just
curious. Thanks. D. Mckenna

paladin415x wrote:

> > a starving lion attacking a gazelle, that this promo MIGHT have
> > lasted longer than it did? Consider: even at the .25 level this
> > promo was worth $40/hour!! Was this enough for all the slime who
> > crawled out from under their respective rocks and oozed into the
> > Tuscany that morning? NOOOOOOO. They wanted $160, or $320 an
> > hour.

$40/hr a quarters is staggering. If you don't burn it down, someone
else will. Like anything else, advantage play is frequently a
Darwinian proposition. Keep that in mind next time you find
something juicy.

I would have passed on the play myself. Did you calculate in your EV
assessment what time you would have had to show up to get a seat on
one of the preferred games? Sources tell me the jockeying for
position began at 0330, or roughly 6.5 hours before the promo
started.

                   Yahoo! Groups Sponsor

                       ADVERTISEMENT
                        [Click Here!]

vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

#5

Maybe Bob Dancer is their idol.

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Elliott L. Shapiro [mailto:ellio…@…com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 20, 2003 8:34 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] You Answered Your Own Question

A few of the "lowerlifes" came before 10:AM, played multiline machines
and got a 4 to the royal and then waited until 10:am to claim them.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

Another good analogy for this situation would be "the prisoner's
dilemma"

> Now, do you suppose if the assembled local "pros" had acted with

a

> modicum of subtlety and grace, rather than attacking this promo

like

> a starving lion attacking a gazelle, that this promo MIGHT have
> lasted longer than it did? Consider: even at the .25 level this
> promo was worth $40/hour!! Was this enough for all the slime who
> crawled out from under their respective rocks and oozed into the
> Tuscany that morning? NOOOOOOO. They wanted $160, or $320 an hour.

King Canute couldn't stop the tide, and it is just as impossible to

form a

VP experts' cartel that would play to maximize the aggregate take

of the

good players.

(Side note: King Canute *knew* he couldn't stop the tide; he was
demonstrating that to his subjects, who believed he could, to break

them of

their tendency to rely on King-commanded miracles instead of taking
necessary actions. See http://viking.no/e/people/e-knud.htm ,

among others.)

For VP players, those of us who, like mkl54321 and myself,

voluntarily

limited our own play, simply handed away expectation to those who

didn't.

As consumers, we are happy with the effects of competition; the gas

stations

don't all get together and raise their prices, even though they'd

all make

more money if they could get away with it.

When we're the ones who have to compete, we lament the "waste"

involved.

So, while I agree with mkl12345 that everybody would have done

better if

each individual player had been less greedy, I don't blame them for

their

actions; I can't imagine what could have prompted events to go

other than

they did.

A good book for those interested in this and related situations is

Axelrod's

_The Evolution of Cooperation_ .

Incidentally, I don't know how mkl12345 figured his hourly

expectation

numbers. On the slowed-down slightly-positive machines, each bonus

took 90

minutes on average to earn and another 15 minutes or so to collect,

so the

expectation was about 60-70 coins per hour. The best negative

machines

played faster, but had an expected loss of around 40 coins per

hour; the net

hourly earn rate was similar or a bit higher, but with much more

risk.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <ime@p...> wrote:

On Sunday, mkl54321 <mkl54321@y...> wrote:

--
Randy Hudson <ime@p...>

#7

Agree save one one point. There is no excuse for all the (often
arrogant) technical "know-it-all" talk that you commonly hear from
half-smart "playas". It's stupid for a number of reasons, and totally
unnecessary.

gj

···

On Tue, 20 May 2003 ime@panix.com wrote:

So, while I agree with mkl12345 that everybody would have done better if
each individual player had been less greedy, I don't blame them for their
actions; I can't imagine what could have prompted events to go other than
they did.