vpFREE2 Forums

What do you use to compute est. loss?

#1

I see lots of posts here from people who can take a certain game and bankroll and determine the percent chance of a loss of $x amount. For example, (and these numbers will make no sense), at 9/6 Jacks, for $10,000 coin-in, you've got a less than 10% chance of losing $1,200, etc.

I'm trying to determine what my best bet would be between two games. I play near-perfect strategy for DB and DDB. I'm guessing I'll be putting about $30,000 coin-in over the trip. My preferred games are 10-play DDB (9/5, 97.86%, $0.25 * 50 = $12.50/hand) and 3-play BP (9/7, 99.11%, $1.00 * 15 = $15.00/hand). I know the 10-play quarters should smooth out the variance compared to 3-play dollars, but DDB has almost twice the variance to start with.

I'm curious to know either (a) what my odds are of losing x amount of money for each with that amount of coin-in, and (b) what program I can buy (if one exists) that'll let me compute this myself later on!

#2

I can't answer your exact question but I can tell you that you need to stop playing that DDB or you will go broke. Stick to the 9/7 Double Bonus.

ยทยทยท

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "some_bitch_already_took_sumorez" <will@...> wrote:

I see lots of posts here from people who can take a certain game and bankroll and determine the percent chance of a loss of $x amount. For example, (and these numbers will make no sense), at 9/6 Jacks, for $10,000 coin-in, you've got a less than 10% chance of losing $1,200, etc.

I'm trying to determine what my best bet would be between two games. I play near-perfect strategy for DB and DDB. I'm guessing I'll be putting about $30,000 coin-in over the trip. My preferred games are 10-play DDB (9/5, 97.86%, $0.25 * 50 = $12.50/hand) and 3-play BP (9/7, 99.11%, $1.00 * 15 = $15.00/hand). I know the 10-play quarters should smooth out the variance compared to 3-play dollars, but DDB has almost twice the variance to start with.

I'm curious to know either (a) what my odds are of losing x amount of money for each with that amount of coin-in, and (b) what program I can buy (if one exists) that'll let me compute this myself later on!