vpFREE2 Forums

What Do YOU expect from vpFREE?

#1

Npf wrote: I accept that not everyone views life as abundant and don't
expect to change that.

It's good that you have modest expectations.

There is a HUGE difference between how many 25¢ opportunities there are
and how many $5 opportunities there are. It is fair to assume that any
casino opportunity that returns more than $50 per hour in expectation is
a mistake. Since that virtually never happens on a 25¢ machine, players
who normally play these games have no experience with these dynamics.
Players who play advantage $5 machines know this well. The rules on
vpFREE work for 25¢ plays. They do NOT work on $5 and higher plays. When
the rules "graciously" allow that players are not required to report
plays that they believe are a mistake, that actually takes in ALL decent
$5 plays. I believe there are no slot directors anywhere who wake up and
say, "I'll think I go provide some $100 per hour opportunities for my
high limit A.P. They deserve abundance. The casino's bottom line is
overrated anyway."

Many current high limit players were 25¢ players not so long ago --- for
me it was 1994 through 1996. At that time I didn't expect the then-$5
players to listen to my advice on how they should run their business.
But with today's Internet, you get all sorts of 25¢ players who start
loudly proclaiming, IN CAPITAL LETTERS, what $5 players "should" do ---
and they really don't understand the dynamics of these games.

Would you expect NFL coaches to actively seek the advice of high school
football players on how to win? The difference between 25¢ and $10 games
is almost that large.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

#2

Npf wrote: I accept that not everyone views life as abundant and

don't

expect to change that.

It's good that you have modest expectations.

There is a HUGE difference between how many 25¢ opportunities there

are

and how many $5 opportunities there are. It is fair to assume that

any

casino opportunity that returns more than $50 per hour in

expectation is

a mistake. Since that virtually never happens on a 25¢ machine,

players

who normally play these games have no experience with these

dynamics.

Players who play advantage $5 machines know this well. The rules on
vpFREE work for 25¢ plays. They do NOT work on $5 and higher plays.

When

the rules "graciously" allow that players are not required to report
plays that they believe are a mistake, that actually takes in ALL

decent

$5 plays. I believe there are no slot directors anywhere who wake

up and

say, "I'll think I go provide some $100 per hour opportunities for

my

high limit A.P. They deserve abundance. The casino's bottom line is
overrated anyway."

Many current high limit players were 25¢ players not so long ago ---

for

me it was 1994 through 1996. At that time I didn't expect the then-

$5

players to listen to my advice on how they should run their

business.

But with today's Internet, you get all sorts of 25¢ players who

start

loudly proclaiming, IN CAPITAL LETTERS, what $5 players "should"

do ---

and they really don't understand the dynamics of these games.

Would you expect NFL coaches to actively seek the advice of high

school

football players on how to win? The difference between 25¢ and $10

games

is almost that large.

Bob, you were doing fine until this idiotic last paragraph. This
analogy is ridiculous at best. Just because .25 plays are more
prevalent does change the approach a good VP player takes. It makes
no difference what denom one is playing since the math is EXACTLY the
same. Not surprising people think you're ego is tad bit too large.

Dick

PS. I see people playing high denom games all the time that have no
clue whatsoever how to play, just like many low denom players.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

#3

Bob Dancer wrote:

···

----------
Would you expect NFL coaches to actively seek the advice of high
school football players on how to win? The difference between 25¢ and
$10 games is almost that large.
----------

Bob,
I, like Dick, was taken aback by your flawed analogy, but perhaps it
wasn't meant as a slight to those of us not playing at high
denominations for profit. The supposition that your analogy implies
is that there are no players at low denominations that are as
proficient as the players playing $10 machines. I for one, would take
exception to such a characterization.

Getting back to the post title What Do YOU expect from vpFREE, there
are bound to be different reasons we post or lurk and read posts
here. In some cases the casual vacation player like myself and the
high denom for profit player might both find a subject or tidbit of
information of equal interest. That commonality parts ways in the
arena of the sharing of play opportunities.

I think this site was envisioned and functions best as a forum for
recreational players. While participation by pros and high dollar
players is certainly something I enjoy reading and that group of
players has an excellent knowledge base, the nature of what they play
limits the value of vpFREE for them.

The function of a board like this as a place to share play
opportunity information is the primary reason I read the posts here.
By its nature as a public forum vpFREE can't serve the same purpose
for pros and high $ players.

-JFR

#4

Well said....my Bob, we're on a roll this week, aren't we?

I don't know about the $50 benchmark analogy, because the smarter
casinos know that some people who walk through their doors will be
smarter than others. It doesn't make any sense at all to hurt
probability because maybe a dozen players actually could make money on
a particular promotion. It's the "how much" that may impact whether or
not a certain game gets offered.

What bothered me the most about this discussion is that there are
still plenty of $40+/hr plays in Vegas for the dollar player. It is
for the player to ascertain where those plays are and how much they're
worth. Yes, some of it the calculus is complicated, but that's part of
the learning process. I realize it's human nature to want something
for nothing, but what bothers me the most is that a lot of those
information hungry readers have no respect for what you, or for that
matter, I, have gone through to get to where we are today. I don't
want to be harsh, but it's kind of insulting. The previous discussion
about the GVR game was just ridiculous, because very few members here
would play the dollar denom, and almost no one would play it higher.

Finally, the irony of you discussing the flow of professional level
information on a pubic forum is, well, amusing. Maybe after all these
years you're seeing the light a little bit. Or maybe there really is
nothing to play in Vegas anymore for a $5 player (I wonder how that
happened?).

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

Npf wrote: I accept that not everyone views life as abundant and don't
expect to change that.

It's good that you have modest expectations.

There is a HUGE difference between how many 25¢ opportunities there are
and how many $5 opportunities there are. It is fair to assume that any
casino opportunity that returns more than $50 per hour in expectation is
a mistake. Since that virtually never happens on a 25¢ machine, players
who normally play these games have no experience with these dynamics.
Players who play advantage $5 machines know this well. The rules on
vpFREE work for 25¢ plays. They do NOT work on $5 and higher plays. When
the rules "graciously" allow that players are not required to report
plays that they believe are a mistake, that actually takes in ALL decent
$5 plays. I believe there are no slot directors anywhere who wake up and
say, "I'll think I go provide some $100 per hour opportunities for my
high limit A.P. They deserve abundance. The casino's bottom line is
overrated anyway."

Many current high limit players were 25¢ players not so long ago --- for
me it was 1994 through 1996. At that time I didn't expect the then-$5
players to listen to my advice on how they should run their business.
But with today's Internet, you get all sorts of 25¢ players who start
loudly proclaiming, IN CAPITAL LETTERS, what $5 players "should" do ---
and they really don't understand the dynamics of these games.

Would you expect NFL coaches to actively seek the advice of high school
football players on how to win? The difference between 25¢ and $10 games
is almost that large.

#5

Dick said: Bob, you were doing fine until this idiotic last paragraph.
This
analogy is ridiculous at best. Just because .25 plays are more
prevalent does change the approach a good VP player takes. It makes
no difference what denom one is playing since the math is EXACTLY the
same.

I ignored Dick's posts for months as whatever he said appeared to be
anti-Dancer. His recent posts have not had that single theme so much, so
he deserves a response.

Dick, I disagree. The math on how to play each hand is the same, but the
likelihood that an over-100% opportunity will last for some time is very
different. Over-100% quarter plays can last for years --- as the casinos
are losing $10 an hour or less with perfect play (usually). Over-100%
$10 plays last ONLY until the casino realizes its mistake. Posting great
high-denom games on vpFREE risks wising up lurking slot/marketing
directors on these games. Not to mention (to echo a recent Paladin
point), there are a number of high limit players who lurk here looking
for nuggets of info. They are 100% takers on this site. Never do they
add anything. Wising them up increases the chances of both getting on
the machine and having the machine last. As I said in the post, it is a
VERY different situation.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

#6

Jerry wrote: I, like Dick, was taken aback by your flawed analogy, but
perhaps it
wasn't meant as a slight to those of us not playing at high
denominations for profit. The supposition that your analogy implies
is that there are no players at low denominations that are as
proficient as the players playing $10 machines. I for one, would take
exception to such a characterization.

I wasn't referring to the proficiency of the players. There are very
competent 25¢ and $1 players. I was discussing the surviveability
dynamics of a quarter play versus a $10 play.

Most analogies are somewhat flawed --- and this seems to have more than
its share. For that I apologize. But I certain do NOT back down from my
overall theme that players who play 25¢ games do not understand the
high-limit dynamics as they don't experience them in their own game.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

#7

Not to mention (to echo a recent Paladin

point), there are a number of high limit players who lurk here looking
for nuggets of info. They are 100% takers on this site. Never do they
add anything.

Let's be creative and give everyone the same opportunity. With 8678
VPfree members, paying $10 per year, we can hire someone full time to
scour the VP scene and post the best plays, at every denomination.
That way no one can keep their "secret" play a secret for long. And
those dreaded lurkers, who add nothing, will lose their advantage too.
Their best option is to trail our guy, or even visit casinos on their
own.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

#8

Jerry wrote: I, like Dick, was taken aback by your flawed analogy,

but

perhaps it
wasn't meant as a slight to those of us not playing at high
denominations for profit. The supposition that your analogy implies
is that there are no players at low denominations that are as
proficient as the players playing $10 machines. I for one, would

take

exception to such a characterization.

I wasn't referring to the proficiency of the players. There are very
competent 25¢ and $1 players. I was discussing the surviveability
dynamics of a quarter play versus a $10 play.

Most analogies are somewhat flawed --- and this seems to have more

than

its share. For that I apologize. But I certain do NOT back down

from my

overall theme that players who play 25¢ games do not understand the
high-limit dynamics as they don't experience them in their own

game.

Bob Dancer

Bob,
I accept your apology on the flawed analogy and trust that you didn't
intend to slight those of us who play recreationally. Some of us have
spent countless hours becoming proficient, more for the love of
playing a challenging game at a high level, than for the relatively
modest monetary gain.

I can only speak for myself, but I'll gladly concede that I don't
have any appreciation for high-limit dynamics. Since they don't apply
to my play there is no reason for me to educate myself in that area.

That doesn't mean that I don't understand that the high-limit plays
are a whole different animal and that such plays and information
about them needs to be treated differently here.

-JFR

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

#9

Dick, I disagree. The math on how to play each hand is the same,

but the

likelihood that an over-100% opportunity will last for some time is

very

different. Over-100% quarter plays can last for years --- as the

casinos

are losing $10 an hour or less with perfect play (usually). Over-

100%

$10 plays last ONLY until the casino realizes its mistake. Posting

great

high-denom games on vpFREE risks wising up lurking slot/marketing
directors on these games.

If you've seen my recent posts you know I am against anyone posting
great plays. However, this is not limited to high denom play as your
anology asserted. The same situation exists for many .25 - $1 plays.

Not to mention (to echo a recent Paladin
point), there are a number of high limit players who lurk here

looking

for nuggets of info. They are 100% takers on this site. Never do

they

add anything. Wising them up increases the chances of both getting

on

the machine and having the machine last. As I said in the post, it

is a

VERY different situation.

Again, I have no disagreement with everything but your last sentence.
In fact, the $ FPDW at ACD was great until it got out and it got hit
hard. The same could be said for the $ LD at The Orleans. I think our
only disagreement is you seem to think these kind of problems are
only limited to $5 and up players and it requires some special
abilities to succeed at these denoms ... I disagree.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

#10

I have to hand this one to Bob. he is correct. The math doesn't change. If you are dealth 4 to a royal whether it be on the Gold Spike's penny machines (if they still have them) or Caesar's $500 machines (if they still have them) your odds are the same in getting the 5th card. But, there is a difference between a $2,000,000 royal and a $40 royal.
  It is $1,999,960 In reality the casino does pay more attention at the top and opportunities are not as pronounced and expert play along with club and casino promotions must often be used to get an advantage. As a result, play must be extremely accurate as the edge might be smaller at the top. As mentioned FPDW survives in some places as even with fast play the profit is in the $7.50 - %10 an hour range but with all the poor players around that mess up on the game the casino probably isn't too concerned if a few make a slight profit as long as they don't overdue it by crowding out the regular losing players. But a casino cannot offer a 0.76% advantage to a $100 player and survive. They may get 99.54%, and 0.5 fromt he slot club with double points (0.25 X 2 = 0.50) plus comps, mailers, and invites, but they take the risk of ruin as well. The purpose of the group is to help all of us. Whether we are recreational, professional, tourists, or observers, leave the pluses
and minuses to our accountants to resolve. A benefit to one might not be to another. As to myself, I am happy to be welcome everywhere. Any game at a casino that I am staying at that returns 99% is profitable to me.
   
  If I play 30K through on a 3 nite stay I should lose $ 300. In return 3 nights hotel and food, slot club cashback is usually worth more than that. If there is a promo which often there is such as 3 X's points and $50 - $100 free play I can do even better.
   
  I have stayed and play at hotels that many on this group rag on as having poor VP.
  Not necessarily so. The Orleans has games close to 100% and if you an Emerald Club level player you get 0.3 from the slot club and decent offers. They have nickel and quarter 9/7 DB progressives, 5/8 ACE$, Triple Play 9/7 DB, 99% + Multistrike,
  9/7 single line progressive $1 and quarter DB, and 5/8 BP at the bars. Reasonable play gets ones meals comped allowing you to keep the slot club cash. Being able to get a room when the general public doesn;t is also worth something. There is also the added benefit of no resort fees or taxes when comped as well. Of course this setup won't a local pro who has a home or apt and eats fewer meals in the casino, but for many it is a plus.
   
  I could give the same scenario with the some of the downtown hotels and the locals proeprties; some even have 100% plus quarter games, thus lets help each other. Too many will never learn perfect play (including me but I am getting better) and if you are perfect congratulations. I am content with knowing the 2 penalty card situations in FPDW and one or two elsewhere. The computer programs of Bob Dancer and Jean Scott have been very helpful as have their books along with Dan Paymar's, Wong's and others. Of course if we have some who just leach to get to the machine to kill an overly generous promo, let's hope they don't get too greedy and leave machines for the general public ( I must be dreaming here)

···

Bob Dancer <bdancer@compdance.com> wrote:
          Jerry wrote: I, like Dick, was taken aback by your flawed analogy, but
perhaps it
wasn't meant as a slight to those of us not playing at high
denominations for profit. The supposition that your analogy implies
is that there are no players at low denominations that are as
proficient as the players playing $10 machines. I for one, would take
exception to such a characterization.

I wasn't referring to the proficiency of the players. There are very
competent 25¢ and $1 players. I was discussing the surviveability
dynamics of a quarter play versus a $10 play.

Most analogies are somewhat flawed --- and this seems to have more than
its share. For that I apologize. But I certain do NOT back down from my
overall theme that players who play 25¢ games do not understand the
high-limit dynamics as they don't experience them in their own game.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

---------------------------------
Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your homepage.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

Utopian dreamers deny it, but it's one of the hard facts of life that
the more people who know a given trick, the less valuable knowledge of
that trick is to you. Case in point: deuces wild. Not long ago,
knowledge of how to play that game was very valuable, as you could
find $25 deuces on the strip, because very few people knew how to
accurately play it. Today, unfortunately, many people know how to play
deuces wild, as a result it's becoming difficult to find the game for
quarters. There are many other examples, like knowledge of how to
countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,
etc. It's not unlike the utopian dream that everyone be a millionaire,
of course if everyone had a million bucks, a million bucks would be
worth a lot less than it is today. Money is only valuable when it is
limited. Same for information.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@...> wrote:

Let's be creative and give everyone the same opportunity. With 8678
VPfree members, paying $10 per year, we can hire someone full time to
scour the VP scene and post the best plays, at every denomination.
That way no one can keep their "secret" play a secret for long. And
those dreaded lurkers, who add nothing, will lose their advantage too.
Their best option is to trail our guy, or even visit casinos on their
own.

#12

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Utopian dreamers deny it, but it's one of the hard facts of life

that

the more people who know a given trick, the less valuable knowledge

of

that trick is to you. Case in point: deuces wild. Not long ago,
knowledge of how to play that game was very valuable, as you could
find $25 deuces on the strip, because very few people knew how to
accurately play it. Today, unfortunately, many people know how to

play

deuces wild, as a result it's becoming difficult to find the game

for

quarters. There are many other examples, like knowledge of how to
countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,
etc. It's not unlike the utopian dream that everyone be a

millionaire,

of course if everyone had a million bucks, a million bucks would be
worth a lot less than it is today. Money is only valuable when it is
limited. Same for information.

I agree completely. And, it goes beyond knowledge. Just about
anything that gives a person the edge over the next guy provides
value to that person. At one time a 300 yard drive in golf was
awesome, today it is routine.

Dick

#13

how to
countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,

What was the state of card counting then? Is there evidence that
anyone besides Dr. Thorp knew how to do it? If he wasn't the first
one to discover it, who was?

#14

Basic strategy was likely a problem before Thorp. But I think it is
likely some came up with the idea of standing and watching until they
caught an Ace/Facecard rich short deck. It was all single-deck deal-to
the-last-card then.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

>how to
>countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,

What was the state of card counting then? Is there evidence that
anyone besides Dr. Thorp knew how to do it? If he wasn't the first
one to discover it, who was?

#15

Tom,

It is widely accepted that the first basic strategy for blackjack was published in 1956 by
Roger Baldwin, William Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James McDermott. Their paper "The
Optimum Strategy in Blackjack" appeared in the Journal of the American Statistical
Association in September of that year.

Thorp revised, refined, and popularized their work in 1962 with his book "Beat the Dealer,"
further being refined and reprinted in 1966, which is the version that is still sold by
Random House today.

If you are interested in reading the original paper, you can find a pdf version of it online
here:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/basic/cantey.pdf

Bettie

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

>how to
>countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,

What was the state of card counting then? Is there evidence that
anyone besides Dr. Thorp knew how to do it? If he wasn't the first
one to discover it, who was?

#16

That was interesting, particularly how far off the supposed experts
were and how differently the game was generally played than it is now.
Splitting 8s was rare, splitting tens was not uncommon, and doubling
down was not common. Peter Griffin, in his "The Theory of Blackjack,"
mentions this paper as "remarkably accurate," but I find it surprising
how different its figure for the overall value of the game was from
Griffin's. Griffin has higher figures for the player advantage
against a dealer up card of from 2 through 6, so maybe he refined the
strategy against those up cards. He also mentioned a book written in
the next year by the same authors that he says "may have been the
first public mention of the possibilities of card counting."

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

>how to
>countdown a blackjack deck before "Beat the Dealer" was published,

What was the state of card counting then? Is there evidence that
anyone besides Dr. Thorp knew how to do it? If he wasn't the first
one to discover it, who was?

Tom,

It is widely accepted that the first basic strategy for blackjack was published in 1956 by
Roger Baldwin, William Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James McDermott. Their paper "The
Optimum Strategy in Blackjack" appeared in the Journal of the American Statistical
Association in September of that year.

Thorp revised, refined, and popularized their work in 1962 with his book "Beat the Dealer,"
further being refined and reprinted in 1966, which is the version that is still sold by
Random House today.

If you are interested in reading the original paper, you can find a pdf version of it online
here:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/basic/cantey.pdf

Bettie

#17

Basic strategy was likely a problem before Thorp. But I think it is
likely some came up with the idea of standing and watching until

they

caught an Ace/Facecard rich short deck. It was all single-deck deal-

to

the-last-card then.

Where the rubber meets the road?

There's those who teach and those who do. I wonder, did Thorp make
lots of $$ on his trade? Or would Uston hold the record taking a few
million out of the casinos in the 80s? Of course Uston taught his
teams and wrote some neat books. He doesn't seem to be mentioned much
relating to bj. He did write some entertaining stuff relating to his
teams and their adventures.

I wonder how many of the vp writers wrote before they became high
limit players.

Cheers

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

#18

<<I wonder how many of the vp writers wrote before they became high limit players.>>

I did. When I wrote the first Frugal book, we had played quarter machines (mostly FPDW) for several years, but were starting to go up to 50 cents and $1 machines. But we never could have foreseen that we would go much higher. We thought we were "in the clouds" when we played $1. When we went up to $1 multi-line and $5 single-line and later even higher, that gave me a lot more experience that I shared in my second Frugal book.

···

________________
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http://queenofcomps.com/

New blog taking the place of
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