vpFREE2 Forums

What are the odds?

Ok, calling after the fact what the odds questions meaningless was a poor choice of words. What I should have said is that most of these calculations make the event seem much more rare than it really is.

Suppose I am playing Super Double and get quads kings followed by quad queens. I could say that the odds of that happening are 1/ 5120 * 1/5120 or 1 in 262 million. Since the order probably doesn't matter, it's 1 in 131 million. Now, if I got queens then jacks or kings then jacks, I would still report the same 'rare event'. If I'm really interested in the odds of a 600 coin quad followed by a 600 coin quad, then my odds are 1/1706 * 1/1706 or about 1 in 29 million. If I play for 4 hours at 500 hph, then my odds are 1 in 29,000.

All I was trying to say is that the 'selective sampling' makes the event look a lot more rare than it really is. I keep all kinds of funny session stats ( straights, flushes, full houses in PE or dealt trip blanks in 5 play JOB). If you define the desired outcome first, then you introduce randomization into the process, which is very, very important to generate meaningful stats.

My favorite gambling hyperbole was a guy who was playing video blackjack. He said with a straight face "I've missed my last two million double downs. < pause > Maybe more".

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