vpFREE2 Forums

Were 13 cards "missing"?

#1

While a compensating, or more-than-compensating subsequent session is a nice story, the worst thing about a big loss is that the machine has no memory and there is no "law of averages". It doesn't know that "it owes you".

If, for example, you expect (mathematically) to win $10 an hour and sit down to a $500 losing session, you can mathematically expect to need to play 50 hours to "make up" the loss.

Of course, the good news is that the opposite is equally true; if you have an unusually successful winning session, your EV for the next session is not impeded by your prior success.

There are some really big wins and really big losses out at the edges of the bell-shaped curve, and there's no way to know if you're going to experience one of them, and if so, which one.

--BG

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1d. Re: Were 13 cards "missing"?
Date: Sun Jan 31, 2010 5:10 am ((PST))

Been there done that. I managed to get ONE quad of any kind while
playing 5712 hands of single line Super Aces over a two day session. It
shakes you to your core and makes you question the legitimacy of the
machines, but in the end you have to believe in the math. I had a
subsequent visit to the same casino and same machines where in 2000
hands I had 8 quads (including quad Aces) as well as 2 Royals. More
than made up for the earlier drought.

...

> Now I realize how naive it was of me to think that. Because after what
I experienced Saturday at California's largest Indian casino I'm shaking
my head wondering why any of us even bother playing this game.
>

...

>
> I played for about 4 1/2 hours.
>
> And in all that time I did not draw one single 4K.
>
> Not a one.

#2

Interesting thread....this happened to me SEVERAL sessions at Mohegan Sun in Ct., and that is why I haven't been there in about three years, as well as their drastic reduction in paytables. Rod

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________________________________
From: Barry Glazer <b.glazer@att.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Mon, February 1, 2010 8:27:25 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Were 13 cards "missing"?

While a compensating, or more-than-compensat ing subsequent session is a nice story, the worst thing about a big loss is that the machine has no memory and there is no "law of averages". It doesn't know that "it owes you".

If, for example, you expect (mathematically) to win $10 an hour and sit down to a $500 losing session, you can mathematically expect to need to play 50 hours to "make up" the loss.

Of course, the good news is that the opposite is equally true; if you have an unusually successful winning session, your EV for the next session is not impeded by your prior success.

There are some really big wins and really big losses out at the edges of the bell-shaped curve, and there's no way to know if you're going to experience one of them, and if so, which one.

--BG

============ ==

1d. Re: Were 13 cards "missing"?
Date: Sun Jan 31, 2010 5:10 am ((PST))

Been there done that. I managed to get ONE quad of any kind while
playing 5712 hands of single line Super Aces over a two day session. It
shakes you to your core and makes you question the legitimacy of the
machines, but in the end you have to believe in the math. I had a
subsequent visit to the same casino and same machines where in 2000
hands I had 8 quads (including quad Aces) as well as 2 Royals. More
than made up for the earlier drought.

...

> Now I realize how naive it was of me to think that. Because after what
I experienced Saturday at California's largest Indian casino I'm shaking
my head wondering why any of us even bother playing this game.
>

...

>
> I played for about 4 1/2 hours.
>
> And in all that time I did not draw one single 4K.
>
> Not a one.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

All of these posts reflect one common theme: that despite the %'s that the machines are expected to pay in the LONG RUN, we each are living in the short run. 9/6 JOB may offer a greater possible opportunity to grind out trying for a few bucks an hour profit than 9/6 DDB, but nothing guarantees you're going to end up either in the middle of the bell curve, or on the profitable tail.

I had a very good first quarter at Mohegan, and a crappy last 3 quarters here. I had a great trip to Vegas in March, and a profitable trip to AC in September. Overall, not a very good year. But lo and behold, the calendar flipped over to 2010, and two trips to Mohegan were sending cash my way like an ATM with no counting function, and an endless supply of Franklins.

Everyone says that cruise ship casinos are awful, and its true - the paytables are about the worst anywhere. But I've taken 2 cruises and hit a few bonus quads on one, and a royal on the other: each paid for the respective cruise. And the second cruise led to an offer from Venetian with $900 in free play that led to the March Vegas trip.

It just goes to show that you never know when, where, or if your luck is going to change, and that you need to examine what your objective is in playing VP. Sure, we'd all like to win on every trip, every session, every machine, every hand. But that's (unfortunately) not realistic. To me, I look at the free rooms, lounges, food, the entertainment, shopping, free gifts, the parties, dinners, plus the excitement of playing with the chance of significant winning versus the possible loss of my annual gambling bankroll as an entertainment expense in my budget.

···

________________________________

Interesting thread....this happened to me SEVERAL sessions at Mohegan Sun in Ct., and that is why I haven't been there in about three years, as well as their drastic reduction in paytables. Rod

____________ _________ _________ __

While a compensating, or more-than-compensat ing subsequent session is a nice story, the worst thing about a big loss is that the machine has no memory and there is no "law of averages". It doesn't know that "it owes you".

There are some really big wins and really big losses out at the edges of the bell-shaped curve, and there's no way to know if you're going to experience one of them, and if so, which one.

-

Been there done that. I managed to get ONE quad of any kind while
playing 5712 hands of single line Super Aces over a two day session. It
shakes you to your core and makes you question the legitimacy of the
machines, but in the end you have to believe in the math. I had a
subsequent visit to the same casino and same machines where in 2000
hands I had 8 quads (including quad Aces) as well as 2 Royals. More
than made up for the earlier drought.

...

> Now I realize how naive it was of me to think that. Because after what
I experienced Saturday at California's largest Indian casino I'm shaking
my head wondering why any of us even bother playing this game.
>

...

>
> I played for about 4 1/2 hours.
>
> And in all that time I did not draw one single 4K.
>
> Not a one.

,_._,___

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

I think we have a tendency to accept the "good" side of VP (i.e. a dealt royal, dealt quads on a multi-play machine, etc.) as a result of our smart play and timing.

Then, when the exact opposite occurs, it can't possibly be that we unluckily landed on the other side of the bell curve.

While driving home Saturday I concluded that the casino must have sneakily tampered with the machines. I now feel that only repetitive unusually negative results could substantiate that reasoning. One unpleasant very bad session does not.

Many of you, here and privately, were quite open in sharing your experiences which helps me keep it all in perspective. I sincerely thank each and every one of you for that.

Mikey

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Guru Perf <guruperf@...> wrote:

It just goes to show that you never know when, where, or if your >luck is going to change, and that you need to examine what your >objective is in playing VP.

#5

But humans are wired to consider the possibility of faulty scenarios (e.g. changing hypotheses, machines which are not truly random - which they aren't).

I'm new to VP, so haven't looked at specifics. If you assume a 50/50 game of coin-flips, and do 100,000-1,000,000 flips, I forget the specifics, but aside from the initial starting period, the win/loss is only expected to cross 0 about 4-6 times. The nice side of this observation is that if we hit a really good winning streak, we'll can stay positive for a long-time - and maybe even forever....

The bad side is that if we hit a bad losing streak, we could stay negative for a very long time (possibly forever)...especially if odds are less than 100%.

On a new VP game, I hit a royal within ~5,000-6,000 hands, so I'm well-ahead of the odds. And it's a lot of fun that way.

But I'm negative on most DDB games, so I haven't been playing DDB very much. Just haven't been getting my share of 4-of-a-kinds. The odds say a dealt quad is 1 in 4,165, but aside from one set of dealt Aces, I don't think I've gotten any other dealt quads in all of 2009.

Odds on a 4 card RF are 1 in 2,777, but I've had lots of those in 2009.

I don't try to fight the trends. I just call it quits and play games that I'm winning more often, and play losing games less often. And I might be missing out on some really big hands. But I feel a little happier about it.

For example, I'm in a 5-year losing streak on blackjack, so I play it for lower stakes, and don't stay on it too long.

Good luck on finding a wonderful day in VP. I was playing in the Las Vegas Hilton one day when the lady next to me hit 6 four-of-a-kinds within ~15 min. She said she'd never had such a lucky streak before.

One time at the Bellagio, I hadn't hit a four-of-a-kind in over a week. Then bingo - four 6s. 2 hands later four 7s.

:slight_smile:

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Barry Glazer" <b.glazer@...> wrote:

While a compensating, or more-than-compensating subsequent session is a nice story, the worst thing about a big loss is that the machine has no memory and there is no "law of averages". It doesn't know that "it owes you".